Alexis Lafreniere and the Rangers Reach a Critical Point

[Sharpshooter]

Is Kreider expected back soon? If Lafreniere continues to no show, now on the top six, then man, the Rangers better be seriously looking at options. What little promise he showed in the second half last year, he's now completely sunk to a new low.

[RangersIn7]

44 minutes ago, Sharpshooter said:

Is Kreider expected back soon? If Lafreniere continues to no show, now on the top six, then man, the Rangers better be seriously looking at options. What little promise he showed in the second half last year, he's now completely sunk to a new low.

Good shot of him playing Thursday I believe.

 

As for the kid… he’s just completely snakebit right now. He needs to catch a break

[Sharpshooter]

6 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

Good shot of him playing Thursday I believe.

 

As for the kid… he’s just completely snakebit right now. He needs to catch a break

Yeah. I thought he's made a few solid plays, but guys just didn't finish. He still needs to be more noticeable though.

[RangersIn7]

2 minutes ago, Sharpshooter said:

Yeah. I thought he's made a few solid plays, but guys just didn't finish. He still needs to be more noticeable though.

I no thought he actually pretty good the other night vs Dallas.

 

Needs to get a little luck to get going

[Cash or Czech]

6 minutes ago, Sharpshooter said:

Yeah. I thought he's made a few solid plays, but guys just didn't finish. He still needs to be more noticeable though.

 

The two plays last night that stuck out from a positive were the feed across the slot from the right to left to Panarin for a good shot on net, and the PP bump play where he corralled the puck to the side of the net and put it right to Trocheck for a shot in close. But he also had a bunch of defensive zone turnovers.

 

He definitely is snake bitten. He was shooting at an absolutely unsustainable 17.9% and 17.7% in his first two seasons, but he's only at 6.6% this season. 

[The Dude]

27 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

Good shot of him playing Thursday I believe.

 

As for the kid… he’s just completely snakebit right now. He needs to catch a break

Snake bit as in by a poisonous snake and he's ill? It's not like he's getting or setting up many chances. 3 games. IDK. 1 quality scoring chances? 2?

 

0 shots on goal the other night.  Snakebit isn't the word.

 

Snake shit. 

[BrooksBurner]

23 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Snake bit as in by a poisonous snake and he's ill? It's not like he's getting or setting up many chances. 3 games. IDK. 1 quality scoring chances? 2?

 

0 shots on goal the other night.  Snakebit isn't the word.

 

Snake shit. 

It’s this. Snake bit implies chances are just pouring in for the guy and bad luck has taken over. Post hits. Unreal goalie saves. Pass bounced over his stick with an open net. That’s not what’s happening.

[Art20c]

14 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

It’s this. Snake bit implies chances are just pouring in for the guy and bad luck has taken over. Post hits. Unreal goalie saves. Pass bounced over his stick with an open net. That’s not what’s happening.

Absolutely agreed. I haven’t seen him to hold down on the puck for longer than a second. Not even trying to do anything meaningful. Huge disappointment 

[mbob]

58 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Snake bit as in by a poisonous snake and he's ill? It's not like he's getting or setting up many chances. 3 games. IDK. 1 quality scoring chances? 2?

 

0 shots on goal the other night.  Snakebit isn't the word.

 

Snake shit. 

 

Must still be his line mates and pp time

[RangersIn7]

He just needs to keep going. Fake it till you make it. 

[BrooksBurner]

I think Montreal will make a play for Lafreniere like they did for Dach. Something around Josh Anderson with significant retainment and the Florida 1st.

 

[RangersIn7]

20 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

I think Montreal will make a play for Lafreniere like they did for Dach. Something around Josh Anderson with significant retainment and the Florida 1st.

 

In the summer you mean?

[Phil]

52 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

I think Montreal will make a play for Lafreniere like they did for Dach. Something around Josh Anderson with significant retainment and the Florida 1st.

 

 

Yeah, Habs make a ton of sense. Total rebuild. Plenty of runway to "unleash" him and hope it's just better there than here.

 

Assuming they don't land Bedard and end up with like the 7th and 10th (FLA pick), I could see a deal happening based around one of the two.

[BrooksBurner]

40 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

In the summer you mean?

No. At this deadline. It doesn’t mean Drury takes it. I just expect to see some smoke with Montreal. I do think there’s a nonzero (25%?) chance that Drury prioritizes taking a swing this year and the next couple instead of waiting to see what Lafreniere will be. If Drury sticks with Lafreniere through this season, which is basically choosing not to take the best possible swing at a Cup this year, then I think he’s already absorbed the hit that comes with keeping Lafreniere through rest of this year and has to continue that trajectory. He can’t “waste” this year and then still give up on Lafreniere right after in a deal like this.

Edited January 17, 2023 by rmc51

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

No. At this deadline. It doesn’t mean Drury takes it. I just expect to see some smoke with Montreal. I do think there’s a nonzero (25%?) chance that Drury prioritizes taking a swing this year and the next couple instead of waiting to see what Lafreniere will be. If Drury sticks with Lafreniere through this season, which is basically choosing not to take the best possible swing at a Cup this year, then I think he’s already absorbed the hit that comes with keeping Lafreniere through rest of this year and has to continue that trajectory. He can’t “waste” this year and then still give up on Lafreniere right after in a deal like this.

 

I doubt it happens at the deadline. There's too much risk based on the lottery drawing that hasn't happened yet. This screams Draft Day deal.

[BrooksBurner]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Yeah, Habs make a ton of sense. Total rebuild. Plenty of runway to "unleash" him and hope it's just better there than here.

 

Assuming they don't land Bedard and end up with like the 7th and 10th (FLA pick), I could see a deal happening based around one of the two.

 

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I doubt it happens at the deadline. There's too much risk based on the lottery drawing that hasn't happened yet. This screams Draft Day deal.

 

I was purposely not specific since I was just spit balling, but there would be some obvious top 5 protections on the picks. Basically it's going to be the Florida pick unless they miss the playoffs and it hits the lottery. This allows a deadline deal to be reasonably completed.

Edited January 17, 2023 by rmc51

[Phil]

It's possible, I guess, but I still don't think it's very likely before the lottery drawing is complete. This feels very much like a Draft day deal, especially given the PR implications of effectively throwing in the towel on a first overall pick. A lot easier to "bury" that in the "off-season" than it is at the deadline with an entire playoffs ahead.

[LindG1000]

As long as that pick has a chance of being Conor Bedard, it's completely untradeable. 

 

Phil's right that any deal with a non-playoff team waits until the Rangers are eliminated and the lottery has happened.

 

 

[BrooksBurner]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

It's possible, I guess, but I still don't think it's very likely before the lottery drawing is complete. This feels very much like a Draft day deal, especially given the PR implications of effectively throwing in the towel on a first overall pick. A lot easier to "bury" that in the "off-season" than it is at the deadline with an entire playoffs ahead.

 

As I mentioned, I don't see the Rangers potentially sandbagging their chances this year to hold Lafreniere, to then turn around and trade him for a futures package or the Montreal one I've suggested. Drury would have already invested in the sunk cost of holding him. Only kind of trade that makes sense at that point is a clearly elite player like Pettersson.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, rmc51 said:

 

As I mentioned, I don't see the Rangers potentially sandbagging their chances this year to hold Lafreniere, to then turn around and trade him for a futures package or the Montreal one I've suggested. Drury would have already invested in the sunk cost of holding him. Only kind of trade that makes sense at that point is a clearly elite player like Pettersson.

 

I just don't agree. It's not sunk cost at all. There's an entire playoffs ahead. The results of which would also dramatically influence the look and justification of this type of deal. If the Rangers win the Cup, in fact, they could arguably dump him for only one of the Habs' two picks, and it could be justified purely on finances alone.

 

I'm not saying this can't happen at the deadline. I just don't think it's nearly as likely to, because the implications of doing that deal and it not working is itself a fireable offense. I don't think Lafreniere is much to write home about at all, but he still has "first overall" brand value associated with his name. If they liquidate him and then get bounced in the first round, fans will call for Drury's head.

[Keirik]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I just don't agree. It's not sunk cost at all. There's an entire playoffs ahead. The results of which would also dramatically influence the look and justification of this type of deal. If the Rangers win the Cup, in fact, they could arguably dump him for only one of the Habs' two picks, and it could be justified purely on finances alone.

 

I'm not saying this can't happen at the deadline. I just don't think it's nearly as likely to, because the implications of doing that deal and it not working is itself a fireable offense. I don't think Lafreniere is much to write home about at all, but he still has "first overall" brand value associated with his name. If they liquidate him and then get bounced in the first round, fans will call for Drury's head.

And rightfully so to be honest. Laf’s value is at an all time low right now. He only has value specifically because of where he was drafted and not because of anything on the ice currently. There simply isn’t enough of a return for Drury to make at the deadline without significant risk of it biting him in the ass if laf prospers. 
 

I still think the Rangers best bet is to hold onto the asset for another contract via bridge and hope a full offseason helps laf get a come to Jesus moment. Chalk this up to a lost year and revisit this when it’s January of year 4. 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Keirik said:

And rightfully so to be honest. Laf’s value is at an all time low right now. He only has value specifically because of where he was drafted and not because of anything on the ice currently. There simply isn’t enough of a return for Drury to make at the deadline without significant risk of it biting him in the ass if laf prospers. 
 

I still think the Rangers best bet is to hold onto the asset for another contract via bridge and hope a full offseason helps laf get a come to Jesus moment. Chalk this up to a lost year and revisit this when it’s January of year 4. 

 

Maybe, yeah. It depends on how they feel any next contract talks might look. But the outcome of the playoffs is going to heavily influence how and when or why this type of trade would even occur. They can't afford to dump him, or be perceived as having dumped him.

[Keirik]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Maybe, yeah. It depends on how they feel any next contract talks might look. But the outcome of the playoffs is going to heavily influence how and when or why this type of trade would even occur. They can't afford to dump him, or be perceived as having dumped him.

I’m not 100% sure but I don’t believe they are required to wait for the offseason to offer him his next contract. I’d still be willing to slightly overpay him a bit by like 500k-1m more than Kakkos bridge just to lock him up for two years. He’s just as tradeable if not more if they know his contract is a two year bridge deal. 
 

   I personally don’t think anyone offer sheets him but if you do wait and that does in fact happen forcing the Rangers to match (assuming it’s not an offer sheet high enough for a 1st)  then they cannot trade him after matching for one season. 

[RangersIn7]

20 minutes ago, Keirik said:

And rightfully so to be honest. Laf’s value is at an all time low right now. He only has value specifically because of where he was drafted and not because of anything on the ice currently. There simply isn’t enough of a return for Drury to make at the deadline without significant risk of it biting him in the ass if laf prospers. 
 

I still think the Rangers best bet is to hold onto the asset for another contract via bridge and hope a full offseason helps laf get a come to Jesus moment. Chalk this up to a lost year and revisit this when it’s January of year 4. 

 

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Maybe, yeah. It depends on how they feel any next contract talks might look. But the outcome of the playoffs is going to heavily influence how and when or why this type of trade would even occur. They can't afford to dump him, or be perceived as having dumped him.

It’s this and this.

 

Kid has struggled. Hasn’t really got it going this year. Hopefully that changes. They’ve still got 35+ games and hopefully a playoff run.

For him to go 16 games without a goal and to be shooting around 6%, I gotta believe karma just turns that around at some point.

Disagree if you like… that’s snake bit.  
He needs to be better as well. No denying.

But his deficiencies are things he can improve upon. 
 

I don’t think his next contract is any different than Kakko or Chytil’s bridge deals were. Which is very fortunate for them. 
 

But they can’t dump him. Certainly not at the deadline nor do I think next off season.

Personally I think they’re married to him through June of ‘24. 

[Sod16]

1 hour ago, RangersIn7 said:

 

But they can’t dump him. Certainly not at the deadline nor do I think next off season.

Personally I think they’re married to him through June of ‘24. 

 

Correct.  If the second half does not go well for LaF, moderate chance he is dealt over the summer.  If he's still lagging after 23-24 and in the middle of a two year bridge, very high chance he goes at that point.