Alexis Lafreniere and the Rangers Reach a Critical Point

[RJWantsTheCup]

Sorry to say Lafraniere probably already has the b in bust if not the b and u.

Hopefully he can figure it out, but it's not looking good.

Flashes are way too far apart and not often enough.

[Sharpshooter]

Even then, the flashes aren't very good either. You can see him make some good passes every now and then, which is what he was advertised for. However, one maybe decent play per game, if you're lucky, isn't cutting it. He's also good for several turnovers a game, getting knocked off the puck, colliding with teammates, and for the cherry on top, really doesn't do anything remarkably well. Whether he thinks he's too good to put the work in and make adjustments, or he's just not very good, I don't know. If he doesn't become something at least decent at this point, it's pretty devastating for the future of this team up front. At this point, I'm more excited for Othmann. He needs to be the real deal if Lafreniere isn't going to be.

[RangersIn7]

42 minutes ago, Sharpshooter said:

Even then, the flashes aren't very good either. You can see him make some good passes every now and then, which is what he was advertised for. However, one maybe decent play per game, if you're lucky, isn't cutting it. He's also good for several turnovers a game, getting knocked off the puck, colliding with teammates, and for the cherry on top, really doesn't do anything remarkably well. Whether he thinks he's too good to put the work in and make adjustments, or he's just not very good, I don't know. If he doesn't become something at least decent at this point, it's pretty devastating for the future of this team up front. At this point, I'm more excited for Othmann. He needs to be the real deal if Lafreniere isn't going to be.

Yeah.

There hasn’t been much.

And since the article and the benching, it’s gotten worse.

 

But I’m hopeful. 
Maybe I’m whistling past the graveyard, and if I am, so be it.

But we don’t actually know that yet.

I think this season, at some point, he gets going and has a nice stretch in him.

But realistically, next season is the big one for him.

 

He needs significant work on his conditioning and skating. And he needs to keep growing into himself and learning how to play at this level. 

Remember we want this kid to succeed. 
 

Be a booster baby!

[Phil]

1 hour ago, siddious said:

He was out there for the Pp. Puck gets sent in deep, somehow donut boy is the first guy in, loses the puck battle and the puck is out. The next play the rangers had possession in the zone, pass came to Laf and he almost loses it, luckily it bounces to one of the other rangers. 
 

I think it was on the next pp he gets it in the zone and it’s immediately somehow going the other way. 
 

I didn’t wanna say it out loud but I was just thinking “there’s no way this kid is ever going to get it”.

 

maybe he can train with Crosby or something this off season I dunno 

 

Those are the innocuous plays, too. He's taken multiple penalties in similar situations and was the primary culprit in the OT loss to the Devils when he fucked up possession and collided with someone, resulting in the Devils going on an odd man rush.

[siddious]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Those are the innocuous plays, too. He's taken multiple penalties in similar situations and was the primary culprit in the OT loss to the Devils when he fucked up possession and collided with someone, resulting in the Devils going on an odd man rush.

Yea it’s just not good all around. 
 

kid needs some sort of reset and it’s really on the team at this point for not giving it to him. That 1 game benching was a drop in the bucket. 

[RangersIn7]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Those are the innocuous plays, too. He's taken multiple penalties in similar situations and was the primary culprit in the OT loss to the Devils when he fucked up possession and collided with someone, resulting in the Devils going on an odd man rush.

 

13 minutes ago, siddious said:

Yea it’s just not good all around. 
 

kid needs some sort of reset and it’s really on the team at this point for not giving it to him. That 1 game benching was a drop in the bucket. 

None of what you are saying is untrue

 

For me it kind of comes down to this.

The strengths of his game are a stylistic clash on what this team does.

Hes a half wall, down low player. He scored his points and drove play in Junior doing that.

And he is 21 trying to figure out how to play his game on this team. Cause they don’t play that way. And actually, that’s an element that they need in their game. And he’s the type of player that can provide it. 

I think what you see from him now at 19-21, vs what you WILL see from him at say, 23-28, will be night and day. 
They shouldn’t move on from him. 
 

And I’ll also say that he would have benefited immensely from playing in the minors.

Bottom line is I think they need to seriously ride this out. He needs to work to improve.

I don’t think he’s lazy, entitled, selfish, or has an attitude problem.

Meantime, guess what.???

He’s cheap. 
 

[siddious]

14 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

 

None of what you are saying is untrue

 

For me it kind of comes down to this.

The strengths of his game are a stylistic clash on what this team does.

Hes a half wall, down low player. He scored his points and drove play in Junior doing that.

And he is 21 trying to figure out how to play his game on this team. Cause they don’t play that way. And actually, that’s an element that they need in their game. And he’s the type of player that can provide it. 

I think what you see from him now at 19-21, vs what you WILL see from him at say, 23-28, will be night and day. 
They shouldn’t move on from him. 
 

And I’ll also say that he would have benefited immensely from playing in the minors.

Bottom line is I think they need to seriously ride this out. He needs to work to improve.

I don’t think he’s lazy, entitled, selfish, or has an attitude problem.

Meantime, guess what.???

He’s cheap. 
 

I don’t think they have a choice but to ride it out. A trade will not bring anything worth a 1st oa pick back to the team and the upside, albeit fleeting, is still there.

 

I said it eeelier this is going to be a test of patience paying off or he gets Ryan spoonered/Ryan stromed and gets dealt for another bust that has some upside in a few years. 
 

communication with prospects is a documented issue with this organization- I hope they’re having good discussions with him about his off season training this year though. 

[BrooksBurner]

7 minutes ago, siddious said:

I don’t think they have a choice but to ride it out. A trade will not bring anything worth a 1st oa pick back to the team and the upside, albeit fleeting, is still there.

 

I said it eeelier this is going to be a test of patience paying off or he gets Ryan spoonered/Ryan stromed and gets dealt for another bust that has some upside in a few years. 
 

communication with prospects is a documented issue with this organization- I hope they’re having good discussions with him about his off season training this year though. 

That’s okay though. We already know he’s not a 1OA player. If we remove that 1OA label, he’s just a regular prospect we hope succeeds and becomes a star. It’s no different than hoping a late 1st round pick becomes one either. For example, I have more hope on Othmann, a first rounder taken in the teens, than I do Lafreniere.

 

If a team wants to give top 10 pick value, and maybe even top 5 value, for Lafreniere then I think the Rangers have to consider. I don’t mean that they should trade him for a pick. I mean the other team values him that way, such that he’s a bigger piece in a trade than he’s worth, and he can headline a deal to acquire a player who is really good now. Still going to bang that Pettersson drum if Vancouver goes nuts.

[RangersIn7]

20 minutes ago, siddious said:

I don’t think they have a choice but to ride it out. A trade will not bring anything worth a 1st oa pick back to the team and the upside, albeit fleeting, is still there.

 

I said it eeelier this is going to be a test of patience paying off or he gets Ryan spoonered/Ryan stromed and gets dealt for another bust that has some upside in a few years. 
 

communication with prospects is a documented issue with this organization- I hope they’re having good discussions with him about his off season training this year though. 

I also think Drury is smart enough to recognize all of that and play it the right way.

Big emphasis also on not thinking there are issues with attitude or work ethic.

I think he works hard and does the right things. Nor do I think he has bad habits. But I do think he needs better habits and maybe some harder work. 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by RangersIn7

[RangersIn7]

2 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

That’s okay though. We already know he’s not a 1OA player. If we remove that 1OA label, he’s just a regular prospect we hope succeeds and becomes a star. It’s no different than hoping a late 1st round pick becomes one either. For example, I have more hope on Othmann, a first rounder taken in the teens, than I do Lafreniere.

 

If a team wants to give top 10 pick value, and maybe even top 5 value, for Lafreniere then I think the Rangers have to consider. I don’t mean that they should trade him for a pick. I mean the other team values him that way, such that he’s a bigger piece in a trade than he’s worth, and he can headline a deal to acquire a player who is really good now. Still going to bang that Pettersson drum if Vancouver goes nuts.

If moving him legitimately makes you better via hockey trade… sure.

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, RangersIn7 said:

 

None of what you are saying is untrue

 

For me it kind of comes down to this.

The strengths of his game are a stylistic clash on what this team does.

Hes a half wall, down low player. He scored his points and drove play in Junior doing that.

And he is 21 trying to figure out how to play his game on this team. Cause they don’t play that way. And actually, that’s an element that they need in their game. And he’s the type of player that can provide it. 

I think what you see from him now at 19-21, vs what you WILL see from him at say, 23-28, will be night and day. 
They shouldn’t move on from him. 
 

And I’ll also say that he would have benefited immensely from playing in the minors.

Bottom line is I think they need to seriously ride this out. He needs to work to improve.

I don’t think he’s lazy, entitled, selfish, or has an attitude problem.

Meantime, guess what.???

He’s cheap. 
 

 

For now. He's due a raise, regardless of how little progress he's made, so this argument only really holds true right now. It kind of expires the moment this deal actually does. You have to imagine he's gonna make around $2.5 million per on his next deal. That's relatively cheap, but not ELC-level cheap either.

[RangersIn7]

Just now, Phil said:

 

For now. He's due a raise, regardless of how little progress he's made, so this argument only really holds true right now. It kind of expires the moment this deal actually does. You have to imagine he's gonna make around $2.5 million per on his next deal. That's relatively cheap, but not ELC-level cheap either.

Well that’s exactly my point.

 

Roll with this kid on a 2.5-3% deal for the next 2-3 seasons if you can.

 

Even if he’s just a 3rd line guy, you’re doing fine having him on your 3rd line. 
 

Take it. And see what happens.

Work with him. 
Help him get better. 
See what’s what.

[LindG1000]

25 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

That’s okay though. We already know he’s not a 1OA player. If we remove that 1OA label, he’s just a regular prospect we hope succeeds and becomes a star. It’s no different than hoping a late 1st round pick becomes one either. For example, I have more hope on Othmann, a first rounder taken in the teens, than I do Lafreniere.

 

If a team wants to give top 10 pick value, and maybe even top 5 value, for Lafreniere then I think the Rangers have to consider. I don’t mean that they should trade him for a pick. I mean the other team values him that way, such that he’s a bigger piece in a trade than he’s worth, and he can headline a deal to acquire a player who is really good now. Still going to bang that Pettersson drum if Vancouver goes nuts.

I think it's really important to keep in mind that the 1OA and the top 5 pick label really matters to GMs. It doesn't go away, and the value of the player doesn't drop significantly for years barring something insane. A mangled Erik Johnson was still able to get a star rookie D and a 30 goal forward, with basically a 20 spot pick swap alongside. Patrik Laine got Pierre-Luc Dubois AND Jack Roslovic AND salary retention. 

 

GMs always think that having been picked high and still being young means they can fix the player and realize the superstar potential. And that has real value whether the on-ice play backs it up or not.

[Phil]

In a vacuum. Not when you're cap-strapped and have to penny pinch on every deal. It might be in the Rangers' best interest to simply move him for someone with a little more cost-control, like someone else's first-round disappointment from a few drafts ahead?

 

It all depends on how the dollars shake out with Miller, Chytil, and others.

[LindG1000]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

For now. He's due a raise, regardless of how little progress he's made, so this argument only really holds true right now. It kind of expires the moment this deal actually does. You have to imagine he's gonna make around $2.5 million per on his next deal. That's relatively cheap, but not ELC-level cheap either.

 

It's cheap for what he is right now, too, though. I'd guess finding a 35-point winger with bigger if unrealized upside on the open market will cost north of that.

[Phil]

Yup, probably.

[RangersIn7]

We are all overlooking the point of … he doesn’t have to be the guy. Not yet anyway.

He just needs to, in the immediate future, find his way. 

Just water him and let him grow.

[RangersIn7]

1 hour ago, LindG1000 said:

I think it's really important to keep in mind that the 1OA and the top 5 pick label really matters to GMs. It doesn't go away, and the value of the player doesn't drop significantly for years barring something insane. A mangled Erik Johnson was still able to get a star rookie D and a 30 goal forward, with basically a 20 spot pick swap alongside. Patrik Laine got Pierre-Luc Dubois AND Jack Roslovic AND salary retention. 

 

GMs always think that having been picked high and still being young means they can fix the player and realize the superstar potential. And that has real value whether the on-ice play backs it up or not.

Also an accompanying point to keep in mind.

 

[LindG1000]

3 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

We are all overlooking the point of … he doesn’t have to be the guy. Not yet anyway.

He just needs to, in the immediate future, find his way. 

Just water him and let him grow.

You don't need him to be the guy, but you need to see something that makes you think he can be the guy in the future. That's been really hard to come by

[Sod16]

After he plays a flurry of games the way he looked in the playoffs last year, everyone will be happy with him, but will it last and will he likely ever be anything more.

[RangersIn7]

2 hours ago, LindG1000 said:

You don't need him to be the guy, but you need to see something that makes you think he can be the guy in the future. That's been really hard to come by

We have actually seen that.

It just gets overlooked. 
Cause he’s a 1OVA.

[Keirik]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

 

For now. He's due a raise, regardless of how little progress he's made, so this argument only really holds true right now. It kind of expires the moment this deal actually does. You have to imagine he's gonna make around $2.5 million per on his next deal. That's relatively cheap, but not ELC-level cheap either.

It’s mostly this. However, Laf does have nearly 3m in performance bonuses on his ELC. Now I get that likely many are not triggered but we also don’t know exactly what those triggers are. Some could be games played, 20 assists in a season, team wins 2 rounds of playoff series, etc. I don’t think those are made public? 

A 2 year 2.5m per bridge is probably as valuable as a cost effective gamble both for us or for another team via trade. 

[Keirik]

2 hours ago, LindG1000 said:

You don't need him to be the guy, but you need to see something that makes you think he can be the guy in the future. That's been really hard to come by

He has in the past, just not frequently enough to really hang your hat on. 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Keirik said:

It’s mostly this. However, Laf does have nearly 3m in performance bonuses on his ELC. Now I get that likely many are not triggered but we also don’t know exactly what those triggers are. Some could be games played, 20 assists in a season, team wins 2 rounds of playoff series, etc. I don’t think those are made public? 

A 2 year 2.5m per bridge is probably as valuable as a cost effective gamble both for us or for another team via trade. 

 

Agreed. I think this is the likeliest path forward, though it's possible they only offer him one year for two specific reasons:

 

1. He's not arbitration eligible, so they can likely keep his AAV lower given it's only a one-year extension.

2. It would bring him right into the 2024-25 Kreider/Trouba NMC shift window.

 

Basically, the "kick the can down the road" strategy.

[Keirik]

Just now, Phil said:

 

Agreed. I think this is the likeliest path forward, though it's possible they only offer him one year for two specific reasons:

 

1. He's not arbitration eligible, so they can likely keep his AAV lower given it's only a one-year extension.

2. It would bring him right into the 2024-25 Kreider/Trouba NMC shift window.

 

Basically, the "kick the can down the road" strategy.

And honestly, outside of some team blowing us away with an offer, it’s exactly what we should do. I have a very hard time believing all scouts not only got this wrong, but got it so wrong that he’s barely an NHLer. Scouts may have over hyped him to be MacKinnon but they didn’t get it so wrong that it’s really McKegg. There has to be something in the middle there. 
 

o still think he gets a 500k or so higher version of Kakkos exact deal.