Alexis Lafreniere and the Rangers Reach a Critical Point

[RangersIn7]

2 hours ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

Lafraniere isn’t going anywhere.  But the problem is the longer they hold on to him if he doesn’t figure it out the less the return will be for him.  There’s no way currently that he commands what he would’ve before or at the draft.  

You can’t concern yourself with the return.

You draft a guy that high, either you get the player you hoped for, or you don’t. 

[The Dude]

Yeah. I think he's a goner. 

For a player who is struggling and given the excuse of low confidence,  he sure is having a grand old time out there.

 

He shows no remorse. No sulking. No frustrated body language. All smiles and the same effort & results. 

 

I'm assuming  the coaching staff and management are ready to move on. He's already had opportunities to play in the top 6. He's off to another roaring start with his current top line opportunity. Plummeting his value even more. 

 

I really hope this kid proves me wrong and he explodes (not from over eating). I just don't see this potential that some keep mentioning. 

 

I see him going in a deadline deal  for a package that will help for a playoff push,  as well as minor pieces/picks. 

 

 

[Scott]

[RangersIn7]

22 hours ago, The Dude said:

Yeah. I think he's a goner. 

For a player who is struggling and given the excuse of low confidence,  he sure is having a grand old time out there.

 

He shows no remorse. No sulking. No frustrated body language. All smiles and the same effort & results. 

 

I'm assuming  the coaching staff and management are ready to move on. He's already had opportunities to play in the top 6. He's off to another roaring start with his current top line opportunity. Plummeting his value even more. 

 

I really hope this kid proves me wrong and he explodes (not from over eating). I just don't see this potential that some keep mentioning. 

 

I see him going in a deadline deal  for a package that will help for a playoff push,  as well as minor pieces/picks. 

 

 

Yeah. I get your point. I just don’t see a player like him going at the deadline. Young. Under team control. Cheap to keep around. And went 1OVA 30 months ago. 
 

I don’t think they’re ready to give up on him. Moreover, that’s not a deal you make at the deadline. 
 

Honestly I’d be very surprised if he didn’t get at least through next season. 

[LindG1000]

For those of you saying he goes in a deadline deal - the idea of trading a recent first-overall pick is blasphemy for an NHL GM. The idea of doing it for a rental is simply unprecedented.

 

So I have to imagine that If they do this, it's for someone high profile/high skill with long-term cap certainty and likely with a high-cost player joining him heading out of NYC. That feels like the only way it makes sense since an "equal prospect swap" sort of deal doesn't make us better right now.

 

That isn't Kane. It isn't Toews. It isn't O'Reilly. It isn't Tarasenko. So I have to ask - where exactly is this move?

[BrooksBurner]

44 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

For those of you saying he goes in a deadline deal - the idea of trading a recent first-overall pick is blasphemy for an NHL GM. The idea of doing it for a rental is simply unprecedented.

 

So I have to imagine that If they do this, it's for someone high profile/high skill with long-term cap certainty and likely with a high-cost player joining him heading out of NYC. That feels like the only way it makes sense since an "equal prospect swap" sort of deal doesn't make us better right now.

 

That isn't Kane. It isn't Toews. It isn't O'Reilly. It isn't Tarasenko. So I have to ask - where exactly is this move?

 

I've mentioned a couple now. Laf/Chytil/1st base (~7M out considering new contracts) for Petterson (~7M in). Laf/++ for Troy Terry (to your point though, this requires a follow up move to make up the cap difference between Laf and Terry's next contract that has to be signed this summer). I think there's guys who could be had if the Rangers pull the plug. I also think it's an offseason move if they do it, not an in-season one.

[The Dude]

39 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

For those of you saying he goes in a deadline deal - the idea of trading a recent first-overall pick is blasphemy for an NHL GM. The idea of doing it for a rental is simply unprecedented.

 

So I have to imagine that If they do this, it's for someone high profile/high skill with long-term cap certainty and likely with a high-cost player joining him heading out of NYC. That feels like the only way it makes sense since an "equal prospect swap" sort of deal doesn't make us better right now.

 

That isn't Kane. It isn't Toews. It isn't O'Reilly. It isn't Tarasenko. So I have to ask - where exactly is this move?

It's a hockey move. One team is getting the coveted 1OA and maybe more, to push a rebuild.  The other is getting a rental and small pieces for the cupboard. 

 

The Rangers can not afford any sort of long term contract of an established young winger. Unless it's a guy like Boeser,  whom some say isn't enough of a return. 

 

The Rangers situation is as unprecedented as anything. When has a playoff contender that just went to the conference finals had a 3rd year 10A and 2OA wasting away on the roster?

 

1OAs  typically dont get dealt, because most of the time they pan out or atleast produce with major icetime. Lafrenière won't be doing either here. 

 

We really need to both - let go of the 1OA tag - and also-  try to still sell him as having that potential, in order to move him for the biggest return. 

 

Waiting for the offseason, when there's a potential trade request,  and a hold out isn't a good time to get value for him. I don't see this relationship ending on good terms. I'd rather move now while the iron is hot and the Rangers window to win is still open. It closed a little bit from last year. But it could be re-opened.  

 

The only capital they have to trade are tweeners, draft picks and Lafrenière. To me I'd rather take another shot in the draft than continue the Lafrenière charade. Him topping out as a 3rd liner isn't my idea of success and I'd rather not keep him around to be reminded of the failure. If he has this value that you perceive (I do as well), they should be able to get a rental and prospects/picks like I'm suggesting. 

 

I'm going for a cup (and stocking the cupboard a tiny bit) with my mindset. What is the mindset of waiting for the offseason? When his value will be less as I'm pretty confident there will beva holdout/trade request. Saying, "fuck him let him play in Europe" isn't going to be a better option than  going for  the cup. 

 

 

[RangersIn7]

55 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

For those of you saying he goes in a deadline deal - the idea of trading a recent first-overall pick is blasphemy for an NHL GM. The idea of doing it for a rental is simply unprecedented.

 

So I have to imagine that If they do this, it's for someone high profile/high skill with long-term cap certainty and likely with a high-cost player joining him heading out of NYC. That feels like the only way it makes sense since an "equal prospect swap" sort of deal doesn't make us better right now.

 

That isn't Kane. It isn't Toews. It isn't O'Reilly. It isn't Tarasenko. So I have to ask - where exactly is this move?

 

6 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

 

I've mentioned a couple now. Laf/Chytil/1st base (~7M out considering new contracts) for Petterson (~7M in). Laf/++ for Troy Terry (to your point though, this requires a follow up move to make up the cap difference between Laf and Terry's next contract that has to be signed this summer). I think there's guys who could be had if the Rangers pull the plug. I also think it's an offseason move if they do it, not an in-season one.

Yup to both of you gents.

 

As I said, despite how we are disappointed, I don’t think the organization is there with him. I think he signs a cheap, 2-year bridge this summer, and he’s on the roster through next season. At the minimum. 
I also think this summer he works hard on skating, conditioning, and probably starts looking seriously at playing on the RW some. 
 

But on the off chance they decide to move on… whether it’s because they feel he won’t pan out or they get an offer they can’t refuse, it’s a summer move. And I’m not adverse to moving him in a hockey trade that they can legitimately fit and makes them better. You just don’t put those deals together at the deadline. 
 

But the notion that he goes for a rental is asinine. 
There was an article a few weeks back from a Hawks writer stating that they should be asking for him in a deal for Kane; and not simply to ask, but that it would be a reasonable ask. Which is ridiculous. 

[Valriera]

He’s getting the same bridge kakko did and while we all love a little drama that would be the right move at this point 

[LindG1000]

33 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

 

I've mentioned a couple now. Laf/Chytil/1st base (~7M out considering new contracts) for Petterson (~7M in). Laf/++ for Troy Terry (to your point though, this requires a follow up move to make up the cap difference between Laf and Terry's next contract that has to be signed this summer). I think there's guys who could be had if the Rangers pull the plug. I also think it's an offseason move if they do it, not an in-season one.

 

Yeah, I think that's the thing, right? It's not a rental deal - we'd deal straight futures for almost any name on the market. Especially with Kane now dealing with injury concerns.

 

Pettersson is a target. I don't think he's the right target for this team (I think we need a RW or a C who isn't afraid to get dirty, or at least someone willing to put the puck into the dangerous areas and avoid perimeter play), but he is a target. I think Hertl fits the mold, but I don't see the Sharks cutting bait (ha) on him in year 1 of his contract. 

 

You really can't divorce his draft status from his value - that means a lot. Even Kirby Dach got a decently high 1st and a third, and he'd been, I'd say, quite a bit worse with more ice time to work with at that point. It matters this close to his draft day; it won't matter in 2025.

 

So if you start looking at the potential sellers...there's not much I'm jumping up and down about here that couldn't be gotten with a standard deadline deal. Like...is it Pettersson? Chychrun, maybe? DeBrincat? Maybe Troy Terry - though I'm hesitant to think the Ducks want to move him.

 

I keep coming back to the idea that for what he'll cost to extend, betting on him is the better deal barring something incredible crossing the wire.

[mbob]

This is our window now with our core stars, budding young defensman, and Shety's current contract.  We need to keep the d-men priority 1 and move something substantial for this year's run.  In my opinion it is either Laf or Chytil going at the deadline.  Kakko has shown improvement to keep it going as well as fitting a team need in his position.  Kravs isn't pulling back enough to push us over the top.  Might be a sell high moment for Chytil though I'd hate to see that and we would need a center and right wing then.  Hard decision for the front office but from what I see Laf would be packing.

[RangersIn7]

25 minutes ago, mbob said:

This is our window now with our core stars, budding young defensman, and Shety's current contract.  We need to keep the d-men priority 1 and move something substantial for this year's run.  In my opinion it is either Laf or Chytil going at the deadline.  Kakko has shown improvement to keep it going as well as fitting a team need in his position.  Kravs isn't pulling back enough to push us over the top.  Might be a sell high moment for Chytil though I'd hate to see that and we would need a center and right wing then.  Hard decision for the front office but from what I see Laf would be packing.

Why limit your partners and return with a deadline deal?

[mbob]

3 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

Why limit your partners and return with a deadline deal?

 

For a cup this year.  If there isn't a good fit then sit on him.

[RangersIn7]

5 minutes ago, mbob said:

 

For a cup this year.  If there isn't a good fit then sit on him.

Yeah

 

I just totally doubt that the type of trade you’re looking for would be out there at the deadline.

 

Name a similar trade to what you’re proposing that has taken place at the deadline?

[mbob]

3 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

Yeah

 

I just totally doubt that the type of trade you’re looking for would be out there at the deadline.

 

Name a similar trade to what you’re proposing that has taken place at the deadline?

 

I'm old and remember how pissed I was Amonte was traded at the time and we know how that ended.  Hear ya on recent times and cap.  Guess I am saying if there is a fit I do it.  If not keep the ship heading toward the iceberg till the off season.

 

[RangersIn7]

8 minutes ago, mbob said:

 

I'm old and remember how pissed I was Amonte was traded at the time and we know how that ended.  Hear ya on recent times and cap.  Guess I am saying if there is a fit I do it.  If not keep the ship heading toward the iceberg till the off season.

 

I don’t think there’s an iceberg bro. I think he’ll be fine. I get the disappointment. I get the concern.

We were in a similar place saying similar things about Kakko and Chytil. That’s a different story now.

And obviously YMMV, but I don’t remember either of those two having too many moments where they flashed it either. 

[Scott]

1 hour ago, RangersIn7 said:

I don’t think there’s an iceberg bro. I think he’ll be fine. I get the disappointment. I get the concern.

We were in a similar place saying similar things about Kakko and Chytil. That’s a different story now.

And obviously YMMV, but I don’t remember either of those two having too many moments where they flashed it either. 

Chytil's in his 5th season having never broken 23 pts, he will this season for the first time. In spite of Kakko appearance or even improvement in whatever stats are out there, the one that count the most, points, he's on the same pace as the first 4 seasons. I guess one strategy is to continue to sit around and wait while the prime years of your best players burn away hoping at some point after years of waiting these guys turn into difference makers. Their collective numbers since joining the league are let's go with pedestrian or those of JAGS.  Kravstov's spared here only because he's too new.

 

Blame the org, who cares at this point, the results speak for themselves.  Nobody wants to see these guys struggle so bad these are pieces who should be making contributions on a regular basis and helping when others struggle. 

 

But they're cheap!

[RangersIn7]

42 minutes ago, jsrangers said:

Chytil's in his 5th season having never broken 23 pts, he will this season for the first time. In spite of Kakko appearance or even improvement in whatever stats are out there, the one that count the most, points, he's on the same pace as the first 4 seasons. I guess one strategy is to continue to sit around and wait while the prime years of your best players burn away hoping at some point after years of waiting these guys turn into difference makers. Their collective numbers since joining the league are let's go with pedestrian or those of JAGS.  Kravstov's spared here only because he's too new.

 

Blame the org, who cares at this point, the results speak for themselves.  Nobody wants to see these guys struggle so bad these are pieces who should be making contributions on a regular basis and helping when others struggle. 

 

But they're cheap!

Agree with much of this.

 

Its a balance though.

 

[The Dude]

4 hours ago, RangersIn7 said:

Yeah

 

I just totally doubt that the type of trade you’re looking for would be out there at the deadline.

 

Name a similar trade to what you’re proposing that has taken place at the deadline?

Winnipeg getting PLD?  

Hasn't this been done already? 

 

Edited January 16, 2023 by The Dude

[Vodka Drunkenski]

Meanwhile Jack Hughes scores his 29th today, tying the game with 10 seconds left and Devils winning in shootout

[BrooksBurner]

3 minutes ago, Vodka Drunkenski said:

Meanwhile Jack Hughes scores his 29th today, tying the game with 10 seconds left and Devils winning in shootout

He’s gonna pot 50 goals and 100 points, but Kakko works hard along the boards sometimes and Lafreniere is barely old enough to drink a beer.

[Cash or Czech]

1 hour ago, The Dude said:

Winnipeg getting PLD?  

Hasn't this been done already? 

 

 

That trade happened the first month of a COVID-shortened season and was being worked on for months knowing PLD wanted to leave.

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, Cash or Czech said:

 

That trade happened the first month of a COVID-shortened season and was being worked on for months knowing PLD wanted to leave.

Saw it was done in January. Missed that it was the covid season. 

 

While it wasn't a deadline move, it was during the season. Not the offseason. But, yeah, I dropped the ball there to fit the requirement of the question. 

[Gravesy]

FWIW, now down to 27th on Pronmans top players under 23 list. 

 

Quote

27. Alexis Lafrenière, RW, New York Rangers

Oct. 11, 2001 | 6-foot-1 | 195 pounds | Shoots left

Drafted: No. 1 in 2020

Skating: Below NHL average
Puck skills: Above NHL average
Hockey sense: Above NHL average
Compete: NHL average

Aug. 2022 Ranking: 10

Analysis: I struggle with where to rate Lafrenière. I can see the argument he’s too high or that he will eventually break out. There’s a lot of “what-ifs” you can do with him. You can “what-if” how he would have performed in the AHL, or on a different team without a stacked PP1. But in the current reality, he’s been a good, but not great NHL winger. He shows flashes of his high-end skill and playmaking, but not consistently enough given his lack of pace. He’s still only 21 and given everything I know about the player. between the talent and his context, I think a breakout will come eventually, but I certainly can’t sit here and say I feel overly confident about it.

 

For reference, Miller is the best Ranger at #21.

Kakko is #32.

The Schneids #51.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Gravesy

[Pete]

Totally squandering his opportunity.