Mercogliano What Happens at Center?

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

 

"Danger zone" doesn't mean any deal above X ($4.5M @josh?) — it speaks to the "mushy middle" players who don't quite get superstar money but are well beyond "comfort" or "bargain" value.

 

 

Sure, for as long as you continue to believe he's attainable for a price that's nearly half his actual market value.

I'm say 6- 6.5 mill you're saying 8. How am I believing he's attainable for nearly half the market value? I'd say it's closer to 7/8's. 

 

What's the market? What good teams are paying him 8? He's right there in the Strome/Copp wheelhouse, as far as demand.

 

You're putting him up there with Giroux and Malkin as far as tier goes. I don't think GMs agree with you,  despite the insane year he just had. I don't even think Giroux or Malkin can get the aav your suggesting Kadri can.

 

There is a gap there. Kadri is vloser to Strome/Copp than he is to the super consistent Giroux.  Giroux MIGHT get 7 from someone, with small term.  Kadri at 8? Nah man. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, josh said:

*cue the music*

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, The Dude said:

I'm say 6- 6.5 mill you're saying 8. How am I believing he's attainable for nearly half the market value? I'd say it's closer to 7/8's. 

 

What's the market? What good teams are paying him 8? He's right there in the Strome/Copp wheelhouse, as far as demand.

 

You're putting him up there with Giroux and Malkin as far as tier goes. I don't think GMs agree with you,  despite the insane year he just had. I don't even think Giroux or Malkin can get the aav your suggesting Kadri can.

 

There is a gap there. Kadri is vloser to Strome/Copp than he is to the super consistent Giroux.  Giroux MIGHT get 7 from someone, with small term.  Kadri at 8? Nah man. 

 

The Rangers will be walking away from Copp and/or Strome because they can't afford anything more than $5M annually. Kadri is going to get $8M, if not $8.5M. that's "nearly half," just like I said.

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

 

The Rangers will be walking away from Copp and/or Strome because they can't afford anything more than $5M annually. Kadri is going to get $8M, if not $8.5M. that's "nearly half," just like I said.

They can afford 6.  6 isn't "nearly" (nor is 5.... ) half of 8 or 8 5. 

 

Kadri isn't getting 8. 

 

This is turning into 2 people talking about something that hasn't happened yet.

 

You think he's getting 8+, I just explained why I don't think he sniffs over 7 from a decent team.

 

You decide to just skip over that and say 8- 8.5, because...... you say so.. 

 

I say hes attainable to the Rangers or a good team at 6- 6.5. 

 

Guess we'll see. 

 

 

Edited June 23, 2022 by The Dude

[jsm7302]

I think

 

Kadri will get 6.5mil/ 5 years

 

Stromer 6 mil/5 years

 

Copp 5.5 mil/6 years

[Pete]

20 hours ago, RangersIn7 said:

I like Kadri too. Always have. But let’s face facts.

He’ll be 32 at beginning of next season. Yes, he’s coming off a career season. But he’s also never approached numbers like he just put up ever before, and history says he’s unlikely to replicate them moving forward.

 

He’s coming off a 6-year deal worth $27 million. He’s got to be looking for at least a $2 million bump in AAV. 
If him and his agent are smart, they’re looking for 5-7 years and at least $35 million. AAV has got to be $6-6.5 on the low end. And then there’s the no trade protection he’s undoubtedly going to want 
They’re going to find a GM somewhere that will give them that money and that protection. 100%. 
And while he’s an excellent player, that’s a bad contract.

 

While I think Kadri could come out over the next 2 seasons and be fantastic, I also think that in a couple of seasons, he’s  a 35-45 point player making $6-7 million per vs the cap on what’s likely a lockout proof contract with huge bonus money that gets paid no matter what. 
If he gets say 6 seasons at 6.5-7, the bonus money in the first 12-24 months of the deal will be massive. 
 

That’s a bad deal. 

People keep talking about how bad deals will look when a player is 35 or 36, but clearly GMS don't care because they're giving out these contracts knowing that they probably won't be around for the end of it. 

[Pete]

9 hours ago, jsm7302 said:

I think

 

Kadri will get 6.5mil/ 5 years

 

Stromer 6 mil/5 years

 

Copp 5.5 mil/6 years

That's way too low for Kadri, IMO. He's getting around $8M

[Phil]

Guy had 87 points this year. 87.

 

And he's about to win a Cup, too.

[jsm7302]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Guy had 87 points this year. 87.

 

And he's about to win a Cup, too.

Paying Kadri with 87 points at 31 y.o. is akin to paying Kreider as a 50 goal scorer at 31 y.o.

 

We both know the replication of that success is not going to happen. This season was an outlier. Look at his career stats!

 

He makes 4.5 mil now @ 31 which should have been his best contract of his career due to his age when signing and career potential at that time. He happened to put up this amazing season this year and will make some extra cash because of it but he isnt going to almost double his salary at 32 years old.

 

Mitigating factors:

- Flat salary cap

- Age and expected decline

- Career and historical stats

- Expected progressive discipline and the chance he may sit out a larger number of games due to disciplinary history.

 

I'll give you the fact that he will get a raise but I don't think it gets past the sixes.

[Cash or Czech]

He’s also a center, which are prized positions and hard to get. He’s also one of the best of a mediocre talent pool, so his price is up. He’s getting Mika money in the hopes for a couple seasons he can put up Mika-like numbers. He outproduced Mika in less games. GMs throw money at players for expected future production. 

[jsm7302]

28 minutes ago, Cash or Czech said:

He’s also a center, which are prized positions and hard to get. He’s also one of the best of a mediocre talent pool, so his price is up. He’s getting Mika money in the hopes for a couple seasons he can put up Mika-like numbers. He outproduced Mika in less games. GMs throw money at players for expected future production. 

I get what you're saying but Mika cashed in, in his late 20's on an upward trend of his career. Kadri put up a career season with no indication he will trend up into his mid 30's considering the rest of his career numbers. But let's face it, we have seen some really terrible contracts in this league and what I'm saying and what will happen are two different things.

 

I'm going on expected worth while history shows that some GM will place a franchises hopes and dreams on this guy due to his production this season and probably will give him a super lucrative contract with a guaranteed egg on face moment after the production isn't replicated.

[Cash or Czech]

12 minutes ago, jsm7302 said:

I get what you're saying but Mika cashed in, in his late 20's on an upward trend of his career. Kadri put up a career season with no indication he will trend up into his mid 30's considering the rest of his career numbers. But let's face it, we have seen some really terrible contracts in this league and what I'm saying and what will happen are two different things.

 

I'm going on expected worth while history shows that some GM will place a franchises hopes and dreams on this guy due to his production this season and probably will give him a super lucrative contract with a guaranteed egg on face moment after the production isn't replicated.

 

It's also Kadri's last chance to cash in. He's 31, he's not going to get a better opportunity. Especially if he wins the cup with Colorado, takes the pressure off to sign somewhere to win a cup. 

 

I could see a team like Calgary go for him. They have the cap room, especially if Gaudreau doesn't re-sign, and he fits the rough and tumble, mean playstyle of the Flames alongside Tkachuk. Pittsburgh might take a stab to get a "younger" Malkin replacement. Or maybe Nashville if they lose Forsberg. 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Cash or Czech

[Phil]

1 hour ago, jsm7302 said:

Paying Kadri with 87 points at 31 y.o. is akin to paying Kreider as a 50 goal scorer at 31 y.o.

 

We both know the replication of that success is not going to happen. This season was an outlier. Look at his career stats!

 

He makes 4.5 mil now @ 31 which should have been his best contract of his career due to his age when signing and career potential at that time. He happened to put up this amazing season this year and will make some extra cash because of it but he isnt going to almost double his salary at 32 years old.

 

Mitigating factors:

- Flat salary cap

- Age and expected decline

- Career and historical stats

- Expected progressive discipline and the chance he may sit out a larger number of games due to disciplinary history.

 

I'll give you the fact that he will get a raise but I don't think it gets past the sixes.

 

We don't know that. We assume that because of what we used to know of the aging curve, but the aging curve isn't the 35-and-done model anymore. It just isn't. More and more players are performing well into their mid-to-late thirties. The ones who don't are the ones who use their bodies as missiles. Their bodies simply break down faster. I'm not sure this entirely applies to Kadri.

 

Also, everything you're saying could probably also be said of Jacob Trouba, who I don't think anyone had pegged as an $8M defender, but a career year ahead of free agency (one year left of restricted in his case) changed everything.

 

I'm not saying Kadri can't or won't sign for less than $8 million per year. I'm telling you that his market value is $8 million, and if I were his agent, I'd be using Zibanejad's extension as a direct comparable. I'd be instructing my client not to take significantly less than his market value out of fears he may not be worth it in years five, six, or seven. That's not my problem.

[josh]

Kadri isn’t close to being an option. Let’s move on. 

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, josh said:

Kadri isn’t close to being an option. Let’s move on. 

 

Correct. But we're kind of arguing about two different things. What his market value actually is and whether or not he's affordable. My argument is that his market value is well beyond what the Rangers can afford and that the value some members think he'll sign for is also beyond what they can afford. Even at $6M million or $6.5 million per.

[jsm7302]

33 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

We don't know that. We assume that because of what we used to know of the aging curve, but the aging curve isn't the 35-and-done model anymore. It just isn't. More and more players are performing well into their mid-to-late thirties. The ones who don't are the ones who use their bodies as missiles. Their bodies simply break down faster. I'm not sure this entirely applies to Kadri.

 

Also, everything you're saying could probably also be said of Jacob Trouba, who I don't think anyone had pegged as an $8M defender, but a career year ahead of free agency (one year left of restricted in his case) changed everything.

 

I'm not saying Kadri can't or won't sign for less than $8 million per year. I'm telling you that his market value is $8 million, and if I were his agent, I'd be using Zibanejad's extension as a direct comparable. I'd be instructing my client not to take significantly less than his market value out of fears he may not be worth it in years five, six, or seven. That's not my problem.

Def agree with Trouba not being worth 8 mil BUT age was on his side as far as career trajectory goes.

 

This really is a moot point because he will be outside of the Rangers cap availability like you have iterated. I think we will continue to debate all of the FA centers worth until the first signs a contract to set this year's market standards.

 

The beat writers seem to believe Copp or Strome will remain Rangers. Seems most of us here feel both will be walking. 

 

I think both Copp and Strome had chemistry and value here. Id tell em both; first to sign a 5x5 gets the contract and the other contract will be moot at that point.....

[Phil]

Just now, jsm7302 said:

Def agree with Trouba not being worth 8 mil BUT age was on his side as far as career trajectory goes.

 

This really is a moot point because he will be outside of the Rangers cap availability like you have iterated. I think we will continue to debate all of the FA centers worth until the first signs a contract to set this year's market standards.

 

The beat writers seem to believe Copp or Strome will remain Rangers. Seems most of us here feel both will be walking. 

 

I think both Copp and Strome had chemistry and value here. Id tell em both; first to sign a 5x5 gets the contract and the other contract will be moot at that point.....

 

I haven't seen anything new (but haven't been checking) — has there been an update from Staple or someone else recently to suggest there's a stronger indication one of Copp or Strome stay?

[jsm7302]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I haven't seen anything new (but haven't been checking) — has there been an update from Staple or someone else recently to suggest there's a stronger indication one of Copp or Strome stay?

https://www.foreverblueshirts.com/rangers-ryan-strome-surgery-update/amp/

 

Nothing that really indicates which way it will go but instead that it will be one or the other instead of neither.

[Phil]

That's speculation by a blogger, not insight from a beat writer. Big grain of salt there.

[Phil]

Quote

We’d love you to stay, but …

Ryan Strome

Of the Rangers’ UFAs, Strome seems to be the leader right now to stick around. That could change before the July 13 start of free agency, but of the in-house (and likely open market) options to fill the No. 2 center slot, the Rangers know Strome best, and he might be most willing to take a more team-friendly salary for some extra years.

 

Andrew Copp

Copp is less likely to shave off dollars to help the Rangers out. He had a tremendous run after coming over from the Jets at the deadline, and the 30th pick belongs to Winnipeg now because of it, but if there’s no room, there’s no room. All things being equal, the Rangers would likely prefer Copp to Strome, but that isn’t the case at the moment.

 

https://theathletic.com/3375740/2022/06/23/rangers-who-stays-who-goes/?source=user_shared_article&redirected=1

[Albatrosss]

if Drury is so upset with Panarin on his playoff performance, i dont see him re-signing Strome.  If Drury is looking for grit, Strome aint it.  Neither is Copp

[Sod16]

5 minutes ago, CCCP said:

if Drury is so upset with Panarin on his playoff performance, i dont see him re-signing Strome.  If Drury is looking for grit, Strome aint it.  Neither is Copp

 

Exactly, I think Drury may go in a very different direction for the second line, one that does not include either Strome or Copp.  

[jsm7302]

11 minutes ago, Sod16 said:

 

Exactly, I think Drury may go in a very different direction for the second line, one that does not include either Strome or Copp.  

Problem becomes....what do you do with Bread?

[Sod16]

2 hours ago, jsm7302 said:

Problem becomes....what do you do with Bread?

Have him enjoy some line mates who clear space for him, especially in the playoffs.

[jsm7302]

Just now, Sod16 said:

Have him enjoy some line mates who clear space for him, especially in the playoffs.

I hope it works! Obviously want success for the guy. I just fear the grass won't be as green as it has been with Stromer. Is it possible that it is a symbiotic relationship and Stromer being hurt really took a toll on Bread? If thats the case during these playoffs then this pairing may mean more than we all think. Can't wait to see what Drury does.