Mercogliano What Happens at Center?

[RangersIn7]

14 hours ago, The Dude said:

But, hes kinda getting better with age. I don't need him to replicate this season.  I need him to be a gritty, point producing center that is good at faceoffs.  

 

I'm fine with paying 6x5 for such a player right now. To me that's better than paying Strome- 6 X 6-7. 

 

I understand he SHOULD  be getting paid this summer. If he wants to win, he's not getting that 6.5-7+.  That kind of money is only coming from a bottom dweller like Philly or Buffalo. 

 

If they can’t lock up Copp, I switch gears and court Kadri by selling him on winning and playing with Panarin. 

I like Kadri too. Always have. But let’s face facts.

He’ll be 32 at beginning of next season. Yes, he’s coming off a career season. But he’s also never approached numbers like he just put up ever before, and history says he’s unlikely to replicate them moving forward.

 

He’s coming off a 6-year deal worth $27 million. He’s got to be looking for at least a $2 million bump in AAV. 
If him and his agent are smart, they’re looking for 5-7 years and at least $35 million. AAV has got to be $6-6.5 on the low end. And then there’s the no trade protection he’s undoubtedly going to want 
They’re going to find a GM somewhere that will give them that money and that protection. 100%. 
And while he’s an excellent player, that’s a bad contract.

 

While I think Kadri could come out over the next 2 seasons and be fantastic, I also think that in a couple of seasons, he’s  a 35-45 point player making $6-7 million per vs the cap on what’s likely a lockout proof contract with huge bonus money that gets paid no matter what. 
If he gets say 6 seasons at 6.5-7, the bonus money in the first 12-24 months of the deal will be massive. 
 

That’s a bad deal. 

Edited June 22, 2022 by RangersIn7

[Phil]

Kadri will make $8 million x 6 or 7 years. He's not even remotely an option.

[Albatrosss]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Kadri will make $8 million x 6 or 7 years. He's not even remotely an option.

someone is going to pay him $8m at age 39?

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, CCCP said:

someone is going to pay him $8m at age 39?

 

No, someone is going to pay him $8M at age 31/32 and look to win Cups while he's still a valuable player. No GM on earth gives a flying fuck about year six or seven of a players' contract because most GMs who sign players to deals that long don't live long enough to even see their end.

 

“I’m not worried about six or seven right now. I’m worried about one. And Year One, I know we’re going to have a very good player. I believe that he’s got a lot of good years left in him.” — Dave Nonis, July 4, 2013

 

That was immediately after the Clarkson contract, which didn't work, but it doesn't make the philosophy any less sound. Every GM in the league, if they're serious about winning, should operate with this mentality.

[RichieNextel305]

Yeah I would have to believe Kadri is going to be out of our price point. Same goes for someone like Trocheck. They’re going to get their money. And we don’t have the cap space for it to be us. Not a question of fit; both would obviously fit in well. But no room.

 

Were going to have to get creative to fill that void or find someone on the lower end of the spectrum.

[Albatrosss]

that is a flawed philosophy, and that's why Nonis is no longer a GM and currently working as a scout.  Not a very good example to bring up

 

signing Kadri to $8X7 pretty much guarantees that GM never working as a GM again.  

[Flynn]

9 minutes ago, CCCP said:

that is a flawed philosophy, and that's why Nonis is no longer a GM and currently working as a scout.  Not a very good example to bring up

 

signing Kadri to $8X7 pretty much guarantees that GM never working as a GM again.  

We’ve got quite a few of those deals that are going to look awful at 33, 34, 35. 

[Phil]

51 minutes ago, RichieNextel305 said:

Yeah I would have to believe Kadri is going to be out of our price point. Same goes for someone like Trocheck. They’re going to get their money. And we don’t have the cap space for it to be us. Not a question of fit; both would obviously fit in well. But no room.

 

Were going to have to get creative to fill that void or find someone on the lower end of the spectrum.

 

Trocheck is going to get paid very similarly, if not identically, to Strome and Copp. If the Rangers are out on the latter, they're out on the former, too.

[Phil]

49 minutes ago, CCCP said:

that is a flawed philosophy, and that's why Nonis is no longer a GM and currently working as a scout.  Not a very good example to bring up

 

signing Kadri to $8X7 pretty much guarantees that GM never working as a GM again.  

 

No, the player he applied it to is why he's not a GM. The philosophy itself is sound.

[jsm7302]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

No, the player he applied it to is why he's not a GM. The philosophy itself is sound.

It is why the buyout exists. Worthwhile for the right player and situation. Haha Clarkson was neither. 

[Albatrosss]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

No, the player he applied it to is why he's not a GM. The philosophy itself is sound.

Kadri's situation is very similar. Career year right before UFA.  the philosophy is a probable disaster for the GM.  There's one or two year window where Kadri could live up to his contract.  If the team doesnt win during the 2 year window, their future is fucked with having to carry an $8M contract for 5 more years for a player who'd be a 4th liner by then.  

 

agree to disagree, i guess.  Kadri is not  that final piece of championship team for any team out there.  He's just not that kind of player, especially at $56M price tag until he's 39.  

[Albatrosss]

4 minutes ago, jsm7302 said:

It is why the buyout exists. Worthwhile for the right player and situation. Haha Clarkson was neither. 

buyouts arent free.  we're still paying Girardi

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, CCCP said:

Kadri's situation is very similar. Career year right before UFA.  the philosophy is a probable disaster for the GM.  There's one or two year window where Kadri could live up to his contract.  If the team doesnt win during the 2 year window, their future is fucked with having to carry an $8M contract for 5 more years for a player who'd be a 4th liner by then.  

 

agree to disagree, i guess.  Kadri is not  that final piece of championship team for any team out there.  He's just not that kind of player, especially at $56M price tag until he's 39.  

 

I'd say they probably have three years (35), so if it's a six-year deal, it's half the contract life, which is pretty par for the course. The aging curve is also adjusting. 35 isn't the career death sentence it used to be. Not for players who don't use their bodies like missiles. Kadri is physical, but I don't think he's so physical that he's going to fall off a cliff. He's surely not going to be a "fourth-liner by then." At best, he falls to your "middle six" and plays a slightly more sheltered role.

 

But I totally get the reservation. If it were the Rangers giving out that deal, I'd be wary of the back half of the deal, too. But I'd also not care at all the moment he helped them win a Cup.

[Albatrosss]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I'd say they probably have three years (35), so if it's a six-year deal, it's half the contract life, which is pretty par for the course. The aging curve is also adjusting. 35 isn't the career death sentence it used to be. Not for players who don't use their bodies like missiles. Kadri is physical, but I don't think he's so physical that he's going to fall off a cliff. He's surely not going to be a "fourth-liner by then." At best, he falls to your "middle six" and plays a slightly more sheltered role.

 

But I totally get the reservation. If it were the Rangers giving out that deal, I'd be wary of the back half of the deal, too. But I'd also not care at all the moment he helped them win a Cup.

as Josh would say "Danger zone".  I would personally have to shoot Drury if he gave out Kadri that kind of a contract.  

Kadri doesnt tip the scale. Avalanche is doing fine without him

[The Dude]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

Kadri will make $8 million x 6 or 7 years. He's not even remotely an option.

Doubt it. Be lucky to get 7 mill. 

 

Again,  any shit bottom freder team could lure him with 8, but I don't think it's about dollars for every player. I guess if he wins a cup this year, that checks a career box for him, but the only teams that can give him a ridiculous contract are garbage, shit teams that have no chance of winning. 

 

I think the 2nd line spot centering Panarin on a contending team is a bigger selling point than a retirement contract in Arizona or Buffalo fir an extra mill. 

 

And what's the difference between giving Kadri a contract that brings him to 39 vs Strome bringing him to 37?  Besides Kadri being useful as a 3rd liner later in his career vs Strome likely being unusable in his final years. 

 

39, 37, there's no difference. So his age has no bearing on the issue, as it's similar with all the other options. 

 

I'm not into bringing Kadri here for what his stat line was this year. I bring him in because he plays a bigger,  more physical game than the other options, and is consistent at the dot. The fact that he could potentially produce at a crazy clip playing with Panarin is 2nd to everything else he brings. 

 

I don't think he's completely out of the Rangers reach as far as AAV. I'm not writing him off just yet. Pipe dream? Maybe. If he signs with Philly for 6.5x5-6 Ima be pissed. 

 

 

[RichieNextel305]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

 

Trocheck is going to get paid very similarly, if not identically, to Strome and Copp. If the Rangers are out on the latter, they're out on the former, too.

I feel like Trocheck is more along the lines of Strome, who might be out with us. So I’d say I agree with you on Strome, but not Copp.

 

I feel Copp is doable, as I feel he may end with a slightly less than players like Strome and Trocheck.

[Cash or Czech]

The Athletic just did a piece on the top 50 UFAs and their projected next contracts and value/decline over the life of the contract. Here's Kadri's breakdown. 

 

https://theathletic.com/3355725/2022/06/09/nhl-top-50-ufa-2022/

 

EH contract projection: $8.5MM x 7 Years

Quote

There are a lot of difficult contracts to figure out this summer, and Nazem Kadri’s may be the toughest. What do you pay a career second-line center who suddenly scores at a 100-point pace at age 31 in a contract year on one of the league’s most loaded teams?

 

Evolving Hockey says $8.5 million on a seven-year deal, which would be in line with the market for an average to low-end top-line center. It’s the deal Mika Zibanejad just signed and it’s a bit higher than what Matt Duchene, Logan Couture and Sean Couturier received. That latter class isn’t bad company for Kadri and the expected value is 2.2 wins per season — low-end first line center territory.

 

If Kadri can retain some of his offensive explosion into next season on a different team that may be a salvageable deal to start, but it goes south relatively quickly given his age and comparables. It’s a below-market deal by Year 2 and it only gets worse from there. On a seven-year term, Kadri’s fair value is closer to $6.5 million. If he’s looking for something that starts with an eight, then four years should be the maximum to limit the risk taken on by the team.

 

And that’s if Kadri’s value can approach 2.9 wins next season. There’s plenty of room for disaster if the 2021-22 season was just a flash in the pan buoyed by playing for an elite team. Kadri’s previous projected value was only half of that and with his age, there’s plenty of room for downside on top of that. There weren’t many players in my database whose projected value climbed 1.7 wins in a single season.

 

We can’t ignore what Kadri did last season, but we also can’t ignore his priors either. That’s why 2.9 wins are the sweet spot — it’s in between his monstrous recent output and previous second-line pedigree, while also showing what he’s capable of doing in top-line minutes. It imagines him as a 75-point center rather than a 100-point one and that’s not unfeasible for a player of Kadri’s talent in the right role. But it’s how he ages after that where there’s trouble too. Kadri’s contract is going to be extremely fascinating.

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Cash or Czech

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, RichieNextel305 said:

I feel like Trocheck is more along the lines of Strome, who might be out with us. So I’d say I agree with you on Strome, but not Copp.

 

I feel Copp is doable, as I feel he may end with a slightly less than players like Strome and Trocheck.

 

I don't. Not trying to be argumentative, either. I just honestly think all three of them are getting $5.5M, give or take.

[BrooksBurner]

Anyone signing Kadri for 7 years at 8.5M deserves everything that happens to them (good or bad, but probably mostly bad).

[Phil]

1 hour ago, CCCP said:

as Josh would say "Danger zone".  I would personally have to shoot Drury if he gave out Kadri that kind of a contract.  

Kadri doesnt tip the scale. Avalanche is doing fine without him

 

"Danger zone" doesn't mean any deal above X ($4.5M @josh?) — it speaks to the "mushy middle" players who don't quite get superstar money but are well beyond "comfort" or "bargain" value.

 

54 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Doubt it. Be lucky to get 7 mill. 

 

Again,  any shit bottom freder team could lure him with 8, but I don't think it's about dollars for every player. I guess if he wins a cup this year, that checks a career box for him, but the only teams that can give him a ridiculous contract are garbage, shit teams that have no chance of winning. 

 

I think the 2nd line spot centering Panarin on a contending team is a bigger selling point than a retirement contract in Arizona or Buffalo fir an extra mill. 

 

And what's the difference between giving Kadri a contract that brings him to 39 vs Strome bringing him to 37?  Besides Kadri being useful as a 3rd liner later in his career vs Strome likely being unusable in his final years. 

 

39, 37, there's no difference. So his age has no bearing on the issue, as it's similar with all the other options. 

 

I'm not into bringing Kadri here for what his stat line was this year. I bring him in because he plays a bigger,  more physical game than the other options, and is consistent at the dot. The fact that he could potentially produce at a crazy clip playing with Panarin is 2nd to everything else he brings. 

 

I don't think he's completely out of the Rangers reach as far as AAV. I'm not writing him off just yet. Pipe dream? Maybe. If he signs with Philly for 6.5x5-6 Ima be pissed.

 

Sure, for as long as you continue to believe he's attainable for a price that's nearly half his actual market value.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

Anyone signing Kadri for 7 years at 8.5M deserves everything that happens to them (good or bad, but probably mostly bad).

 

I mean, probably, but the Evolving Hockey contract projection model is pretty reliable. These were the unfiltered results for 2021:

 

 

https://evolving-hockey.com/blog/2021-nhl-free-agency-an-early-review/

[josh]

30 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

"Danger zone" doesn't mean any deal above X ($4.5M @josh?) — it speaks to the "mushy middle" players who don't quite get superstar money but are well beyond "comfort" or "bargain" value.

 

 

Sure, for as long as you continue to believe he's attainable for a price that's nearly half his actual market value.

Last look, Rangers hadn’t had anyone on a contract over 4m for 4+ years finish out their contract other than Kreider.

 

danger zone is loosely interpreted by most, and that’s acceptable, as long as the concept is understood.

 

my view is pay first liners. Anyone that’s not putting up first line numbers or impact can’t be paid like a first liner. That number is rising but the 4.5m mark (long term) is right around the cut off. And you can see that around the league. 
 

Only way to overcome are Stamkos (Zibanejad/Panarin) contract AND Hedman (fox/Zibanejad). And even TB had to unload and play the IR game. 

[RichieNextel305]

36 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I don't. Not trying to be argumentative, either. I just honestly think all three of them are getting $5.5M, give or take.

I think if Strome was going to get $5.5M, he’d be resigned by now. I think he’s hoping for $6M+, as will Trocheck IMO. I feel Copp can come in around $5M; maybe $5.25M.

[josh]

Just now, RichieNextel305 said:

I think if Strome was going to get $5.5M, he’d be resigned by now. I think he’s hoping for $6M+, as will Trocheck IMO. I feel Copp can come in around $5M; maybe $5.25M.

*cue the music*
 

[RichieNextel305]

35 minutes ago, josh said:

*cue the music*