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Lafrenière Re-Re-Reset: 2023–24 Edition


RichieNextel305

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22 minutes ago, Br4d said:

If you want to know how to shutdown Lafreniere and turn him into an ordinary player the answer is simple: put him on a line with Kaapo Kakko.


That’s basically for anyone, except maybe Filip Chytil. How good was Chytil? 😢

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Bruce Boudreau on NHLN last night compared Laffy to Guy Lafleur, in  that Lafleur had 3 relatively solid but unspectacular seasons before exploding . Not entirely sure the comparison holds looking at Lafleur's numbers, but that a respected NHL coach is making it bodes well. Also means the Habs are gonna try to steal him with a ridiculous contract offer someday soon.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/laflegu01.html

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4 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Bruce Boudreau on NHLN last night compared Laffy to Guy Lafleur, in  that Lafleur had 3 relatively solid but unspectacular seasons before exploding . Not entirely sure the comparison holds looking at Lafleur's numbers, but that a respected NHL coach is making it bodes well. Also means the Habs are gonna try to steal him with a ridiculous contract offer someday soon.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/laflegu01.html


The Rangers would be wise to come to extension terms this summer. Hopefully there’s no hard feelings by having been dragged through the proverbial mud by the fan base and quite possibly management in general.

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12 hours ago, Pete said:

Great question. 

 

I know he doesn't get a lot of power play time, but he's very unimpressive on PP2. That's why I don't buy any argument that he have X many extra points if he got PP time. 

This is such a strange take. Clearly, being on pp1 and pp2 is a completely different proposition. 
He’d have 15 more points merely by being alive and able to hold on to his stick. As it happens he’s a very good passer, good in front of the net and has a sneaky good shot on him. Of fucking course he’d be racking up points playing on pp1 with Fox, Zib, Panarin +1. It’s an absolute given.

Of course, none of those 5 deserve to lose their spot, and as good as Lafreniere’s been there’s no real reason to shoe horn him in there.

But the idea that regular pp1 time wouldn’t significantly boost Lafreniere’s production is a super weird hill to die on.

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13 hours ago, Pete said:

Great question. 

 

I know he doesn't get a lot of power play time, but he's very unimpressive on PP2. That's why I don't buy any argument that he have X many extra points if he got PP time. 

 

I think that's more to do with the rest of PP2 than it is a true indicator of Lafreniere's ability on the PP. When he filled in on PP1, he looked like he belonged.

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Posted (edited)

I wonder if the Rangers look to go a similar route NJ went with Jack Hughes before he truly exploded as far as a contract goes and try to lock him up with a deal that may seem a bit over the top at the time it’s signed but could look like a steak in 2 or 3 years if he maintains this kind of upward trajectory. You’re talking about a kid who’s just 22 who may hit or finish a hair under 30 goals along with maybe 60 points all while receiving no time on the PP. This is who many projected he would be his rookie year. I remember a lot of people saying he was someone who could walk in and be a 60 point guy right out of the gate. We had to wait a tiny bit but hes finally there. No where to go but up. Possibly really up.

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11 minutes ago, RichieNextel305 said:

I wonder if the Rangers look to go a similar route NJ went with Jack Hughes before he truly exploded as far as a contract goes and try to lock him up with a deal that may seem a bit over the top at the time it’s signed but could look like a steak in 2 or 3 years if he maintains this kind of upward trajectory. You’re talking about a kid who’s just 22 who may hit or finish a hair under 30 goals along with maybe 60 points all while receiving no time on the PP. This is who many projected he would be his rookie year. I remember a lot of people saying he was someone who could walk in and be a 60 point guy right out of the gate. We had to wait a tiny bit but hes finally there. No where to go but up. Possibly really up.

They need to do it early because lafreniere’s contract will dictate what the rest of that summer will look like and it’s going to cost one of goodrow, kreider, or miller 

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18 minutes ago, RichieNextel305 said:

I wonder if the Rangers look to go a similar route NJ went with Jack Hughes before he truly exploded as far as a contract goes and try to lock him up with a deal that may seem a bit over the top at the time it’s signed but could look like a steak in 2 or 3 years if he maintains this kind of upward trajectory. You’re talking about a kid who’s just 22 who may hit or finish a hair under 30 goals along with maybe 60 points all while receiving no time on the PP. This is who many projected he would be his rookie year. I remember a lot of people saying he was someone who could walk in and be a 60 point guy right out of the gate. We had to wait a tiny bit but hes finally there. No where to go but up. Possibly really up.

 

I love if they could get him locked up for 8 years in the $7 million range before he scores 40 goals next year.

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2 hours ago, Gravesy said:

This is such a strange take. Clearly, being on pp1 and pp2 is a completely different proposition. 
He’d have 15 more points merely by being alive and able to hold on to his stick. As it happens he’s a very good passer, good in front of the net and has a sneaky good shot on him. Of fucking course he’d be racking up points playing on pp1 with Fox, Zib, Panarin +1. It’s an absolute given.

Of course, none of those 5 deserve to lose their spot, and as good as Lafreniere’s been there’s no real reason to shoe horn him in there.

But the idea that regular pp1 time wouldn’t significantly boost Lafreniere’s production is a super weird hill to die on.

Nothing weird about it. Nobody has the ability to predict how many more points he'd have. You have some people here saying 15, another group saying 30.

 

It's weird to say no one (especially here) can predict the outcome of something that hasn't happened?

 

 

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36 minutes ago, RichieNextel305 said:

I wonder if the Rangers look to go a similar route NJ went with Jack Hughes before he truly exploded as far as a contract goes and try to lock him up with a deal that may seem a bit over the top at the time it’s signed but could look like a steak in 2 or 3 years if he maintains this kind of upward trajectory. You’re talking about a kid who’s just 22 who may hit or finish a hair under 30 goals along with maybe 60 points all while receiving no time on the PP. This is who many projected he would be his rookie year. I remember a lot of people saying he was someone who could walk in and be a 60 point guy right out of the gate. We had to wait a tiny bit but hes finally there. No where to go but up. Possibly really up.

 

15 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

I love if they could get him locked up for 8 years in the $7 million range before he scores 40 goals next year.

They need to see if he can produce without Panarin before any of this happens. 

 

Evidence suggests he can, but it needs to be tried. 

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1 hour ago, Cash or Czech said:

 

I think that's more to do with the rest of PP2 than it is a true indicator of Lafreniere's ability on the PP. When he filled in on PP1, he looked like he belonged.

Well if he's a real play driver, and everybody else is as incompetent as you say, then he should shine on that unit shouldn't he?

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13 minutes ago, Pete said:

 

They need to see if he can produce without Panarin before any of this happens. 

 

Evidence suggests he can, but it needs to be tried. 

 

I don't see a scenario where they break that line up next year and if he approaches 40 goals and a ppg then he's gonna cost $8-9 million a year.  Take the gamble.  Lock him up.

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16 minutes ago, Pete said:

Well if he's a real play driver, and everybody else is as incompetent as you say, then he should shine on that unit shouldn't he?

 

This isn't basketball where one player drives an entire team. Kaapo Kakko and Brodzinski are not the same as Panarin and Fox. You can put lipstick on a pig but it's still a pig.

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Just now, Cash or Czech said:

 

This isn't basketball where one player drives an entire team. Kaapo Kakko and Brodzinski are not the same as Panarin and Fox. You can put lipstick on a pig but it's still a pig.

So wait, The argument is that he's getting dragged down on PP2, but he's not getting propped up on the Panarin line? How's that work? 

 

Look, I think he's been a different player this season, this is what we've all been waiting for. I think his confidence is sky high and I think he's holding his own regarding who he's playing with. 

 

I'm just pointing out there are a number of people who are talking themselves in circles because they want to stan. 

 

My point is, there's no way anybody can say how many more points he would have on the power play. He could have 5. He could have 35. It's completely unpredictable so let's stop making up the fake stats.

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8 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

I don't see a scenario where they break that line up next year and if he approaches 40 goals and a ppg then he's gonna cost $8-9 million a year.  Take the gamble.  Lock him up.

I'm not of the mind that you pay players for one good season. You can easily get stuck with a 7 million 45 point player when Panarin leaves. 

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10 minutes ago, Pete said:

I'm not of the mind that you pay players for one good season. You can easily get stuck with a 7 million 45 point player when Panarin leaves. 

 

Sure, but sometimes you have to take the risk in order to get guys on good deals.  I think Laf has done enough to gamble on.

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13 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

Sure, but sometimes you have to take the risk in order to get guys on good deals.  I think Laf has done enough to gamble on.

Fair enough. 

 

I'm enjoying his progress, but just want make sure it's not the rising tide of MVPanarin lifting all boats. Like, I wouldn't be shocked to see Trocheck put up 55-60 points next season either. 

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the only real wildcard is the shit we're going to be in not this offseason, next offseason. Lafreniere, Miller, and Igor are all due contracts that single offseason. Lindgren, Schneider, Kakko this season. 

 

Igor is a UFA. The dude is going to get paid. He makes 5.6M now, he won a vezina, he's getting at least 7M. 

 

Miller is a RFA, he's at 3.8now, he's getting 6-8M with term as the going rate for someone like him. That's already 6M additional cap. 

 

Then there's Laf. He's at 2.35M now. His floor is going to be at least 5M a season. That's at least another ~3M and we're already over.

 

If you can get his deal done in the summer, you can use it to understand very critically how much you can pay Kakko, Schneider, and Lindgren for the team's future. This is extremely important too. 

 

To me, you can't do a show me deal without moving him from Panarin. I've seen enough with Panarin that I know this is a player I want. If the plan is show me deal and move from Panarin, fine, I think that's smart, but I don't see it happening. 

 

What's a show me deal look like? 5Mx2? 

The deal with term is probably MacKinnon's last deal, 6year , ~6M hit. It's a no brainer for me if that's it. More? I think about it, but I don't see a show me deal doing anything but burning us at these prices. Yeah, it may not work out and this is his best year ever, so we get a 45 pt player who can play in the top 9 with high ceiling. It's expensive but that's a contract that's easy to move and it's a player people will bite on.   

 

There are a lot of factors in this one and I don't think it's simple either way. For me, I see less risk in trying to lock him up with term than trying to skirt it for another two years but I could see either direction on this one. 

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1 hour ago, Pete said:

I'm not of the mind that you pay players for one good season. You can easily get stuck with a 7 million 45 point player when Panarin leaves. 


If that happened and that’s all Lafreniere is, then they’ll be rebuilding in a post-Panarin/old-Zibanejad world and the high cap hit for meh production wouldn’t matter for a while.

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2 hours ago, RichieNextel305 said:

I wonder if the Rangers look to go a similar route NJ went with Jack Hughes before he truly exploded as far as a contract goes and try to lock him up with a deal that may seem a bit over the top at the time it’s signed but could look like a steak in 2 or 3 years if he maintains this kind of upward trajectory. You’re talking about a kid who’s just 22 who may hit or finish a hair under 30 goals along with maybe 60 points all while receiving no time on the PP. This is who many projected he would be his rookie year. I remember a lot of people saying he was someone who could walk in and be a 60 point guy right out of the gate. We had to wait a tiny bit but hes finally there. No where to go but up. Possibly really up.


I think it would cost them the same as Jack Hughes’ contract. Jack Hughes signed that before he was anything, and 8 years at the time included 4 UFA years. Lafreniere just had a better season than Hughes when he signed his extension, Laffy would be selling 6 UFA years, and the cap sky rocketing. I doubt he’d sign his entire 20s away for less than 8 per.

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29 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:


If that happened and that’s all Lafreniere is, then they’ll be rebuilding in a post-Panarin/old-Zibanejad world and the high cap hit for meh production wouldn’t matter for a while.

Fair enough. And they'll need a more veteran presence, which I think he'd actually be good at. 

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You can make an argument that Laf and Fox are the only guys on this roster that will matter in 2029 5 years down the road.

 

I think if you can get him at something like $7M/8 yrs you jump all over that.  I don't think you can get him at that.

 

To the Canadiens he is probably worth $12M-$13M a year for the same term if he proves it next season with a big glance at this year's playoffs also.

 

So if the Rangers believe then they want to get him off the market this summer without him ever getting an offer from the Canadiens.  That probably means $10M/8 yrs.

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