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Lafrenière Re-Re-Reset: 2023–24 Edition


RichieNextel305

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https://theathletic.com/5200382/2024/01/16/nhl-improved-players-ranking-2024

 

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10. Alexis Lafrenière, New York Rangers


Lafrenière is emerging as a crucial top-six supporting piece on one of the league’s most dangerous offensive lines.

 

The 2020 No. 1 pick is tied for 49th among all NHL forwards with 21 five-on-five points, meaning he’s producing at a bona fide first-line rate. He’s a prolific shooter, ranking top 20 among forwards for five-on-five high-danger chances and shots — he’s unlucky not to have more goals.
 

Lafrenière’s 21-goal, 50-point pace might seem modest for a top-six forward, but he barely sniffs power-play time because of the Rangers’ loaded first unit. He’d have way more points if he had a chance to play first-unit minutes in another situation.

 

Why has Lafrenière taken such a big step? It starts with Peter Laviolette’s decision to shift the 22-year-old to his off-wing on a line with Artemi Panarin, which has been a slam dunk. Lafrenière’s previously never had a chance to consistently play in the top six with a player of Panarin’s caliber.

 

Lafrenière isn’t just riding the coattails of Panarin — he looks way more aggressive and confident as a play driver. That’s a product of his significantly improved skating. Lafrenière used to look lethargic and lack pace. This year, he’s in the top 15 percent of forwards for speed bursts over 20 miles per hour.

 

Lafrenière is leading dangerous rushes and connecting the next play with intelligent passing. Below you’ll see a couple of examples of him driving offense.
 

Lafrenière is leading dangerous rushes and connecting the next play with intelligent passing. Below you’ll see a couple of examples of him driving offense.

The stats may say he’s only on track for an 11-point increase compared to last season, but the difference in how dangerous and impactful Lafreniere looks is night and day.

 

Sensible takes from an unbiased 3rd party, who apparently has a good eye for what he sees on tape.

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Sadly we don't know what he is without Panarin because he's always with him. 

 

He also sucks on the power play, so I don't believe he would have "way more points". It's a baseless assumption. 

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2 minutes ago, Pete said:

Sadly we don't know what he is without Panarin because he's always with him. 

 

He also sucks on the power play, so I don't believe he would have "way more points". It's a baseless assumption. 

 

As is the "if he only got PP time..." argument in a nut shell.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

As is the "if he only got PP time..." argument in a nut shell.

Exactly. If he was playing on the number one unit he would be getting points by accident. He has been a complete disaster on the number two unit, that entire unit is a disaster and he has done nothing to improve it. 

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And this doesn't even take into account the fact that he's a player on his line that you worry about the least, which allows him to get lost. All the focus is on number 10 and number 16. 

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5 minutes ago, Pete said:

Exactly. If he was playing on the number one unit he would be getting points by accident. He has been a complete disaster on the number two unit, that entire unit is a disaster and he has done nothing to improve it. 

 

“I don't know why. I wish I could play him on the power play. Every time I put him on, he stinks.”

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Kreider scored fifty that way…

 

Unfounded powerplay takes aside, the fact that the rest of the snippet is true is really remarkable considering where we started the year. Lafreniere could barely play on the third line last year. It makes the whole first overall bust thing a lot easier to take 

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4 minutes ago, Valriera said:

Kreider scored fifty that way…

 

Unfounded powerplay takes aside, the fact that the rest of the snippet is true is really remarkable considering where we started the year. Lafreniere could barely play on the third line last year. It makes the whole first overall bust thing a lot easier to take 

 

Yeah, because he was a picture of consistency and competence there.

 

Kreider scored 26 PPG the year he had 52 total but he's always been a reliable PP presence since his rookie year. He scored 6, then 7, 5, 6, 7, 7, 9, 11. Then 26 in the 52 year, then 8 last year and 9 already this year.

 

Wanna know why Kakko and Laf aren't? Because they're not competent.

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35 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Yeah, because he was a picture of consistency and competence there.

 

Kreider scored 26 PPG the year he had 52 total but he's always been a reliable PP presence since his rookie year. He scored 6, then 7, 5, 6, 7, 7, 9, 11. Then 26 in the 52 year, then 8 last year and 9 already this year.

 

Wanna know why Kakko and Laf aren't? Because they're not competent.

 

It doesn't look very consistent.  Looks like one anomalous year where he scored 3-4 years worth of goals.

 

So last year Kreider had 8 with the first unit in 272 minutes.  Laf had 3 on the second unit in 111.5 minutes.  There's no way you can sit there with a straight face and say Laf isn't competent enough to score around 10 goals if played 250+ minutes with the first unit.

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2 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

It doesn't look very consistent.  Looks like one anomalous year where he scored 3-4 years worth of goals.

 

So last year Kreider had 8 with the first unit in 272 minutes.  Laf had 3 on the second unit in 111.5 minutes.  There's no way you can sit there with a straight face and say Laf isn't competent enough to score around 10 goals if played 250+ minutes with the first unit.

It will always come back to  Laf not being much of a 1OA. If you need to be placed on a 30% power play to contribute on the PP, then...yea...

 

But good for him, he is indeed running with the opportunity. No one needs to make it more than what it is. The biggest difference is his level of effort. It just wasn't there game to game. This is the guy I thought he'd be a rookie. With any luck he's just scratching the surface. Panarin won't be here forever.

 

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3 minutes ago, Pete said:

It will always come back to  Laf not being much of a 1OA. If you need to be placed on a 30% power play to contribute on the PP, then...yea...

 

But good for him, he is indeed running with the opportunity. No one needs to make it more than what it is. The biggest difference is his level of effort. It just wasn't there game to game. This is the guy I thought he'd be a rookie. With any luck he's just scratching the surface. Panarin won't be here forever.

 

 

That's not really a fair assessment either.  Last year he averaged 1:23 per game on the PP.  We know based on usage that's on average the last 20-30 seconds of 3-4 PP's per game, and they come on while to puck is behind their own net.  Not really setting the second unit up for success.  And I'm not advocating for the first unit to come off sooner, just a by-product of having such a good first unit, the second unit gets crap opportunities.    

 

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8 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

That's not really a fair assessment either.  Last year he averaged 1:23 per game on the PP.  We know based on usage that's on average the last 20-30 seconds of 3-4 PP's per game, and they come on while to puck is behind their own net.  Not really setting the second unit up for success.  And I'm not advocating for the first unit to come off sooner, just a by-product of having such a good first unit, the second unit gets crap opportunities.    

 

I understand all that, and it's not completely his fault either, but it's not exactly like he looks dominant at all. It's not like he's out there setting up a ton of chances that no one else can bury. He's just as bad as the entire unit. I don't blame him for it, but he's not above the fray. 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

 

Yeah, because he was a picture of consistency and competence there.

 

Kreider scored 26 PPG the year he had 52 total but he's always been a reliable PP presence since his rookie year. He scored 6, then 7, 5, 6, 7, 7, 9, 11. Then 26 in the 52 year, then 8 last year and 9 already this year.

 

Wanna know why Kakko and Laf aren't? Because they're not competent.

That argument is just as unfounded as the opposite one

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49 minutes ago, Pete said:

I understand all that, and it's not completely his fault either, but it's not exactly like he looks dominant at all. It's not like he's out there setting up a ton of chances that no one else can bury. He's just as bad as the entire unit. I don't blame him for it, but he's not above the fray. 

you mean in the 20 seconds of PP he gets if he's lucky?

Actually, last night his PP unit on the first PP i believe was outchancing the 1st PP unit and they only had about 30 seconds of ice time.  Laf was the QB and the unit had couple of good looks.  While 1st PP unit couldnt gain the zone.  My point is that if that unit had little more PP time, they would produce becaue they're shoot first unit.  Laf and Wheeler would be the passers

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Just now, Albatrosss said:

you mean in the 20 seconds of PP he gets if he's lucky?

Actually, last night his PP unit on the first PP i believe was outchancing the 1st PP unit and they only had about 30 seconds of ice time.  Laf was the QB and the unit had couple of good looks.  While 1st PP unit couldnt gain the zone.  My point is that if that unit had little more PP time, they would produce becaue they're shoot first unit.  Laf and Wheeler would be the passers

He stinks on the power play until he doesn't. At that point I'll change my opinion. 

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1 hour ago, Long live the King said:

 

It doesn't look very consistent.  Looks like one anomalous year where he scored 3-4 years worth of goals.

 

So last year Kreider had 8 with the first unit in 272 minutes.  Laf had 3 on the second unit in 111.5 minutes.  There's no way you can sit there with a straight face and say Laf isn't competent enough to score around 10 goals if played 250+ minutes with the first unit.

 

It looks extremely consistent. He had one anomaly year which coincides with a career high in goals. Outside of that, he's averaging 8.3 PPG per season.

 

The other differentiating factor is this: Kreider plays a role on the power play that's discernible and measurable. Laf doesn't. He mostly floats around the circles. He's not the big shot (Trouba/Zibanejad), the one-time threat (Zibanejad/Panarin), the net-front presence (Kreider), the visionary (Panarin) or the QB (Fox). Which goes back to the fundamental criticism of him as a player: no one knows what he is or what he does well, because he doesn't actually do anything very well. Right now, the projections are hopeful that he'll develop into a solid 30-30 type, which makes him a complimentary winger — someone who will rely heavily on the strength of his line mates in order to make right by this.

 

So, I have three questions for you:

 

1. Who are you taking off the second-best (or first, depending on the day) power play in the league to get Laf the reps you think he needs to be more productive;

2. What role do you see him playing;

1. And what about any of this inspires the supreme confidence you seem to have in the idea this will all just magically translate to the power play?

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1 minute ago, Albatrosss said:

you mean in the 20 seconds of PP he gets if he's lucky?

Actually, last night his PP unit on the first PP i believe was outchancing the 1st PP unit and they only had about 30 seconds of ice time.  Laf was the QB and the unit had couple of good looks.  While 1st PP unit couldnt gain the zone.  My point is that if that unit had little more PP time, they would produce becaue they're shoot first unit.  Laf and Wheeler would be the passers

 

The PP is an extension of the coaching staff's confidence in a player based on the level of play/confidence/skill they show at even strength. What about Laf's game suggests he's going to be better setting up chances (or converting on them) when he doesn't even do it at evens?

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

It looks extremely consistent. He had one anomaly year which coincides with a career high in goals. Outside of that, he's averaging 8.3 PPG per season.

 

The other differentiating factor is this: Kreider plays a role on the power play that's discernible and measurable. Laf doesn't. He mostly floats around the circles. He's not the big shot (Trouba/Zibanejad), the one-time threat (Zibanejad/Panarin), the net-front presence (Kreider), the visionary (Panarin) or the QB (Fox). Which goes back to the fundamental criticism of him as a player: no one knows what he is or what he does well, because he doesn't actually do anything very well. Right now, the projections are hopeful that he'll develop into a solid 30-30 type, which makes him a complimentary winger — someone who will rely heavily on the strength of his line mates in order to make right by this.

 

So, I have three questions for you:

 

1. Who are you taking off the second-best (or first, depending on the day) power play in the league to get Laf the reps you think he needs to be more productive;

2. What role do you see him playing;

1. And what about any of this inspires the supreme confidence you seem to have in the idea this will all just magically translate to the power play?

 

I'm not taking anyone off.  That still doesn't mean he would be ineffective if he was on the first unit.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

The PP is an extension of the coaching staff's confidence in a player based on the level of play/confidence/skill they show at even strength. What about Laf's game suggests he's going to be better setting up chances (or converting on them) when he doesn't even do it at evens?

better question is who's is he unseating from the first PP unit?  Any injury on that unit, Laf is the one stepping in

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

The PP is an extension of the coaching staff's confidence in a player based on the level of play/confidence/skill they show at even strength. What about Laf's game suggests he's going to be better setting up chances (or converting on them) when he doesn't even do it at evens?

 

He has identical ES numbers as Kreider and is better than Zib.  Again I'm not taking either off PP1, but this is starting to boarder on blind Laf hate because "He'S nOt A nUmBeR 1 oVeRaLl!"

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5 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

He has identical ES numbers as Kreider and is better than Zib.  Again I'm not taking either off PP1, but this is starting to boarder on blind Laf hate because "He'S nOt A nUmBeR 1 oVeRaLl!"

pretty sure he outchances them by a mile too

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11 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

He has identical ES numbers as Kreider and is better than Zib.  Again I'm not taking either off PP1, but this is starting to boarder on blind Laf hate because "He'S nOt A nUmBeR 1 oVeRaLl!"

 

Both of whom play roles. Laf doesn't (until he does). He doesn't have Zibanejad's shot threat or Kreider's net-front presence and elite puck-tipping skills. What skills does he have? Again, this is the key question to ask because good as he's been this year finding a gear, I'm still not sure at all what he's actually good at.

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