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Lafrenière Re-Re-Reset: 2023–24 Edition


RichieNextel305

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Both of whom play roles. Laf doesn't (until he does). He doesn't have Zibanejad's shot threat or Kreider's net-front presence and elite puck-tipping skills. What skills does he have? Again, this is the key question to ask because good as he's been this year finding a gear, I'm still not sure at all what he's actually good at.

goofing around, obviously

 

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6 minutes ago, Albatrosss said:

pretty sure he outchances them by a mile too

 

This argument, I can buy, maybe. He's volume-shooting this year. He had 67 SOG in his first year, then 110 and 135 last year. This was over 216 total games, so it's an average of 1.44 shots per game. He already has 113 this year just halfway through the season — the equivalent of 2.6 shots per game. Nearly double.

 

Could he be like a Viktor Arvidsson? I think it's possible, I just don't know how well that translates to a PP position unless we're restructuring the entire first unit/set up to generate more plays to the middle for more shots from the slot.

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First 3 seasons: Laf is blocked from PP1 minutes, but he deserved to be

This season: Laf is blocked from PP1 minutes, but he doesn't deserve to be

 

Contrast that with Kakko, who also remains blocked from PP1 minutes, but he still deserves to be blocked in year 5.

 

I have no doubt that Lafreniere is next man up for PP1 if one of the 4 forwards on there gets injured.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Both of whom play roles. Laf doesn't (until he does). He doesn't have Zibanejad's shot threat or Kreider's net-front presence and elite puck-tipping skills. What skills does he have? Again, this is the key question to ask because good as he's been this year finding a gear, I'm still not sure at all what he's actually good at.

 

Well, he plays Panarin's role on the 2nd unit.  We've already addressed the 2nd unit's usage, and he is trying to feed Brodzinski and Wheeler on the 2nd unit.  No wonder it looks like ass.  Now Kakko is back we'll see how it looks going forward, hopefully they get a center soon.

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32 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

I'm not taking anyone off.  That still doesn't mean he would be ineffective if he was on the first unit.

 

This is a shifting of the burden of proof. The insinuation from the onset was that all Laf needs is PP time to translate into more production. That has to be proven, or based on something we can buy into, not the other way around. It's not my job to "prove" that he'd be ineffective. It's your job to prove he would be effective. Seeing as you've admitted you wouldn't take anyone off to get him on, I'm not sure how you plan on doing that?

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8 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

First 3 seasons: Laf is blocked from PP1 minutes, but he deserved to be

This season: Laf is blocked from PP1 minutes, but he doesn't deserve to be

 

Contrast that with Kakko, who also remains blocked from PP1 minutes, but he still deserves to be blocked in year 5.

 

I have no doubt that Lafreniere is next man up for PP1 if one of the 4 forwards on there gets injured.

 

Same, but not out of some unwavering faith in him as an offensive threat. It's simply because he's the next best player available, but one who is nowhere near unseating anyone on the first unit under normal circumstances.

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9 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

Well, he plays Panarin's role on the 2nd unit.  We've already addressed the 2nd unit's usage, and he is trying to feed Brodzinski and Wheeler on the 2nd unit.  No wonder it looks like ass.  Now Kakko is back we'll see how it looks going forward, hopefully they get a center soon.

 

Sure — if Chytil were healthy, all three kids on the second unit might actually make it a half-decent threat, but this issue of PP production is going to exist in perpetuity so long as Fox (5 years remaining), Zibanejad (6), Kreider (3), and Panarin (2) are here and healthy. Trocheck (5) is the only guy I could see him maybe replacing, otherwise he's waiting on a Panarin decision/decline. Same role, after all.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

Same, but not out of some unwavering faith in him as an offensive threat. It's simply because he's the next best player available, but one who is nowhere near unseating anyone on the first unit under normal circumstances.

 

I think the issue is that historically the talk was that he doesn't produce at 5v5 and that's why he doesn't deserve a look at PP time. Now he's slotting in at 52nd in the league amongst forwards in 5v5 points, which puts him at 1st line forward production, and the conversation has now migrated to "he doesn't pass the eye test and his PP2 production stinks", when it's a junk PP2 unit that is getting the last 30 seconds of PP time and it starts behind their own net. It just feels a bit more like an excuse to criticize rather than a legitimate reason this time.

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Just now, BrooksBurner said:

I think the issue is that historically the talk was that he doesn't produce at 5v5 and that's why he doesn't deserve a look at PP time. Now he's slotting in at 52nd in the league amongst forwards in 5v5 points, which puts him at 1st line forward production, and the conversation has now migrated to "he doesn't pass the eye test and his PP2 production stinks", when it's a junk PP2 unit that is getting the last 30 seconds of PP time and it starts behind their own net. It just feels a bit more like an excuse to criticize rather than a legitimate reason this time.

 

OK, I get all that but that's not my argument. Mine is that he doesn't do anything well enough to warrant bumping anyone off the first unit (the best or second-best in the league on any given day). The second unit sucks, but so do most second units, especially on teams with this much supreme special teams talent on their first unit. They'll get better if and when the Rangers get some better depth, but I'm not expecting any major improvement in scoring regardless. PP1 will always get the lions share of the ice time because they deserve it. They, not Laf, give the Rangers the best chance to score.

 

We can revisit this in two years, maybe, if Panarin doesn't come back, or at whatever point Trocheck regresses back to the mean. Until then, we're kicking up dirt for no reason.

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Just now, Phil said:

 

OK, I get all that but that's not my argument. Mine is that he doesn't do anything well enough to warrant bumping anyone off the first unit (the best or second-best in the league on any given day). The second unit sucks, but so do most second units, especially on teams with this much supreme special teams talent on their first unit. They'll get better if and when the Rangers get some better depth, but I'm not expecting any major improvement in scoring regardless. PP1 will always get the lions share of the ice time because they deserve it. They, not Laf, give the Rangers the best chance to score.

 

We can revisit this in two years, maybe, if Panarin doesn't come back, or at whatever point Trocheck regresses back to the mean. Until then, we're kicking up dirt for no reason.

 

As much as I would love to see Laff get a chance on the PP, Phil's right.  There's no way you break up the #1 PP in the NHL.  Laff will have plenty of time to get a shot at it.  Just not until there's a need to change it.  I'm pretty sure he would be the first one to get a crack at it though.

 

But until then, I'm leaving that alone.  That PP1 is absolutely lethal...and it keeps teams in check, knowing full well if they go to the box, they're ringing the dinner bell.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

OK, I get all that but that's not my argument. Mine is that he doesn't do anything well enough to warrant bumping anyone off the first unit (the best or second-best in the league on any given day). The second unit sucks, but so do most second units, especially on teams with this much supreme special teams talent on their first unit. They'll get better if and when the Rangers get some better depth, but I'm not expecting any major improvement in scoring regardless. PP1 will always get the lions share of the ice time because they deserve it. They, not Laf, give the Rangers the best chance to score.

 

We can revisit this in two years, maybe, if Panarin doesn't come back, or at whatever point Trocheck regresses back to the mean. Until then, we're kicking up dirt for no reason.

 

This might be semantics, but I think the difference of opinion is how this statement is interpreted. It comes across as a slight to Lafreniere and his skill level. I think he easily does things well enough to be on a PP1, but I agree it's not so good that it can force anyone off this PP1. This is why I classified it as "blocked, but doesn't deserve to be".

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Can we just be happy? Just once? 

 

Just once, can we enjoy something without trying to dip it in liquid dog shit and throw it in the deep fryer?

 

Laf looks far more like the guy who dominated the Q four years ago than he has in his entire career. He's working harder. He's skating better. He's getting to the places on the ice where he can do good things. He's starting to force conversations around getting more ice time in key situations. He's creating far more high-danger chances at even strength, and he's not doing it by getting stat-padded secondary assists. These are all good things, and maybe more to the point - these kinds of players are the kinds you want on your team.

 

So, I ask this once - can't we just be happy?

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9 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

This might be semantics, but I think the difference of opinion is how this statement is interpreted. It comes across as a slight to Lafreniere and his skill level. I think he easily does things well enough to be on a PP1, but I agree it's not so good that it can force anyone off this PP1. This is why I classified it as "blocked, but doesn't deserve to be".

 

OK, then let me clarify/rephrase:

 

Laf's doesn't own a specific skill that would warrant supplanting anyone currently on the first unit. He's not a better playmaker than Panarin, a better one-timer than Zibanejad, a better netfront than Kreider, etc. etc. It's not meant as a slight against him. It was a low bar to clear, but I'm genuinely impressed with how well he's playing this year. It's very encouraging, especially given how ineffective Kakko still looks five+ years since his draft.

 

I'd classify him as "blocked, but deserves to be" simply because I view everything top down, not bottom up. To me, players have to force their way on, not the other way around. When you have the best PP in the league, anyone looking to make a case they deserve a spot there over what's working needs to outperform the current members and/or bring a very unique quality that makes their addition "worth it."

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

OK, then let me clarify/rephrase:

 

Laf's doesn't own a specific skill that would warrant supplanting anyone currently on the first unit. He's not a better playmaker than Panarin, a better one-timer than Zibanejad, a better netfront than Kreider, etc. etc. It's not meant as a slight against him. It was a low bar to clear, but I'm genuinely impressed with how well he's playing this year. It's very encouraging, especially given how ineffective Kakko still looks five+ years since his draft.

 

I'd classify him as "blocked, but deserves to be" simply because I view everything top down, not bottom up. To me, players have to force their way on, not the other way around. When you have the best PP in the league, anyone looking to make a case they deserve a spot there over what's working needs to outperform the current members and/or bring a very unique quality that makes their addition "worth it."

 

This is the kind of thing that's keeping the argument going, lol.  Paranin is 3rd in the league in assists going back 5 years.  Laf obviously isn't bumping Panarin off the PP. That doesn't mean that Laf doesn't own that skill set and would be ineffective being the distributor from the circle.

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18 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

OK, then let me clarify/rephrase:

 

Laf's doesn't own a specific skill that would warrant supplanting anyone currently on the first unit. He's not a better playmaker than Panarin, a better one-timer than Zibanejad, a better netfront than Kreider, etc. etc. It's not meant as a slight against him. It was a low bar to clear, but I'm genuinely impressed with how well he's playing this year. It's very encouraging, especially given how ineffective Kakko still looks five+ years since his draft.

 

I'd classify him as "blocked, but deserves to be" simply because I view everything top down, not bottom up. To me, players have to force their way on, not the other way around. When you have the best PP in the league, anyone looking to make a case they deserve a spot there over what's working needs to outperform the current members and/or bring a very unique quality that makes their addition "worth it."

 

If Laf were to supplant anyone on PP1, it's Trocheck. He's got the skill set to play Trocheck's role well - perhaps even better because he's got more of a get-to-the-net and shoot-first mindset these days. But then again, I have to ask why you'd consider messing with PP1 in the first place.

 

He's blocked by the single best PP fivesome in the NHL. I don't necessarily think that's a problem, and it's only a problem viewed from the lens of Lafreniere's boxcar stats.

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24 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

This is the kind of thing that's keeping the argument going, lol.  Paranin is 3rd in the league in assists going back 5 years.  Laf obviously isn't bumping Panarin off the PP. That doesn't mean that Laf doesn't own that skill set and would be ineffective being the distributor from the circle.

 

👇

 

What it means (until it doesn't) is that Laf's skills are not up to the task of unseating anyone, especially not Panarin, from the first unit as currently constructed. You can choose to view this as some coded slight against him, but it isn't. I'm genuinely impressed with him this season, but I still can't get a grip on what his talent actually is. The only discernible thing he has this year that he hasn't in previous seasons is a propensity to volume shoot. That's a good thing, but it's not a quality worthy enough on its own to supplant anyone on PP1, therefore arguments that he "deserves" PP1 fall on deaf ears (mine).

 

I've never said he would be ineffective, either. I said nothing about his game says he's a better option than anyone currently on PP1 and nothing about the immediate future suggests a change is coming. I've also said that because PP1 is so good, PP2 will always be eating scraps. Better linemates than Brodzinski and Wheeler will probably/maybe produce slightly better results, but don't expect some huge jump in special teams production, even if you replace both with significantly more reliable scorers (which Kakko isn't, by the way). They just won't get the TOI to make much of a difference.

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27 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

If Laf were to supplant anyone on PP1, it's Trocheck. He's got the skill set to play Trocheck's role well - perhaps even better because he's got more of a get-to-the-net and shoot-first mindset these days. But then again, I have to ask why you'd consider messing with PP1 in the first place.

 

He's blocked by the single best PP fivesome in the NHL. I don't necessarily think that's a problem, and it's only a problem viewed from the lens of Lafreniere's boxcar stats.

 

This is exactly my point.

 

In fact, you can probably even make an argument that his being "blocked" from the PP is a good thing for the Rangers, who can probably keep his costs down because of it. If/when the regime changes to open a PP1 opportunity for him, he might be on a Kreider-like deal instead of a Zibanejad-like one.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

This is exactly my point.

 

In fact, you can probably even make an argument that his being "blocked" from the PP is a good thing for the Rangers, who can probably keep his costs down because of it. If/when the regime changes to open a PP1 opportunity for him, he might be on a Kreider-like deal instead of a Zibanejad-like one.

 

I think that cuts both ways, though. A guy who puts up 40-50 points at ES is usually going to be a top 60 ES scorer, and many players who get that are also getting premier special teams time. So, we can both recognize that this is a good problem and that we probably shouldn't hold that against Lafreniere if he ends up putting up 50 points this season, with 40-45 or so at even strength. That's a damn good season for anyone not getting a lick of PP time. 

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51 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

If Laf were to supplant anyone on PP1, it's Trocheck. He's got the skill set to play Trocheck's role well - perhaps even better because he's got more of a get-to-the-net and shoot-first mindset these days. But then again, I have to ask why you'd consider messing with PP1 in the first place.

 

He's blocked by the single best PP fivesome in the NHL. I don't necessarily think that's a problem, and it's only a problem viewed from the lens of Lafreniere's boxcar stats.

 

Yes, but boxcar stats have been used for a long time as the baseline for contract negotiations. I think it's going to be a huge problem when Lafreniere deservedly wants big dollars on his next contract, and the Rangers are hardballing him with comparables in the 50 point boxcar range instead of the 50 point 5v5 range. It won't be a healthy relationship after he's already had to deal with a unique set of circumstances that have stifled special opportunities that are normally afforded to 1OAs.

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2 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

First 3 seasons: Laf is blocked from PP1 minutes, but he deserved to be

This season: Laf is blocked from PP1 minutes, but he doesn't deserve to be

 

Contrast that with Kakko, who also remains blocked from PP1 minutes, but he still deserves to be blocked in year 5.

 

I have no doubt that Lafreniere is next man up for PP1 if one of the 4 forwards on there gets injured.

He does deserve to be blocked by virtue of not being one of the best 4 forwards on the team.

 

Considering we just saw him take MZ spot when he had the flu, it's not a reach to say he's the next man up, we've already seen it. 

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26 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

Just because he shouldn't unseat someone off the league's top PP =/= he wouldn't produce on the PP

 

For the third time, this is burden of proof shifting. I never said he wouldn't produce on the PP. I said he hasn't done enough to warrant beating anyone else out of a PP1 spot. I've also said that "if he just got PP time" he'd produce more is a baseless claim that gets made about a lot of players. It might be true for some players but mostly isn't, and largely because those players don't bring enough to usurp the players who play on PP1 on their teams.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

For the third time, this is burden of proof shifting. I never said he wouldn't produce on the PP. I said he hasn't done enough to warrant beating anyone else out of a PP1 spot. I've also said that "if he just got PP time" he'd produce more is a baseless claim that gets made about a lot of players. It might be true for some players but mostly isn't, and largely because those players don't bring enough to usurp the players who play on PP1 on their teams.

If he gets more points on the power play it's strictly due to the same reasons he's getting more points at even strength... The Bread effect. Is it the only reason? No. Is it the biggest reason? Yes.

 

All you have to do is look at Pittsburgh and the level of talent on that power play, and then see that they're at the bottom of the league, And you can chuck the assumption that anybody is getting more points just because they play on the power play. This has been true of a lot of teams, Winnipeg as well. Good team, bad power play. 

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