Staple Rangers, Chytil Have Begun Preliminary Talks on Contract Extension

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

He's also still on his ELC and wasn't as close to UFA. 

 

But for comparables sake you have Boldy on ELC (.72) and Cozens on ELC (.88) signed pretty much the same deal.

 

Thompson was .87 last year and signed right before entering the final season of his second deal.  Hintz was .90 last year and signed on Nov 9, after starting the final year of his second deal with 17 points in 13 games.  Hintz got about $1.25 million more and an 8th year.

 

While Chytil is currently at .74, he has 15 points in the last 13 games.  He may not sustain a more than a ppg pace but finishing over .80 on the season is likely.  Only way to keep the AAV out of the 7's is if the deal is 2 or 3 years.

 

 

Boldy, thankfully, isn't a center. I'm not sure he's a direct comparable. Same for Thompson. But I agree with your general sentiment. It's gonna be really hard to get much of a "cap friendly" deal here.

[LindG1000]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

 

I want to pull the chute on Trocheck as hard as humanely possible.

 

I know it's early, and I know he has control, but that contract feels very, very tradeable to me. A 2C locked in at a 2C salary who puts up 2C numbers isn't terribly common anymore.

[Br4d]

4 hours ago, Long live the King said:

 

While Chytil is currently at .74, he has 15 points in the last 13 games.  He may not sustain a more than a ppg pace but finishing over .80 on the season is likely.  Only way to keep the AAV out of the 7's is if the deal is 2 or 3 years.

 

 

Chytil is so hot right now we have no idea where he's going to wind up.  He is getting a bit lucky (the goal off the face-off, the spin and turn goal) but he's also shooting quicker than most goalies can manage unless the puck just hits them.

 

It's true that he got similarly hot in a short span in the playoffs last season but this feels different.  It really feels like he has arrived and unlike the playoffs he's not facing the same team every night making adjustments to try to shut him down.

 

I don't think we'd be surprised if he finished with 30 goals this season.  Would we be surprised if he scored 21 goals in 31 games and finished with 40?

[Phil]

He's on pace for 30 goals and 60 points.

[Pete]

1 hour ago, Br4d said:

Would we be surprised if he scored 21 goals in 31 games and finished with 40?

Yes? 

[RJWantsTheCup]

So did he Chytil figure it out in January or did he have a hot streak with a bit of luck?  Good thing they didn't rush to re-sign him during his hot/lucky stretch.

[Pete]

26 minutes ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

So did he Chytil figure it out in January or did he have a hot streak with a bit of luck?  Good thing they didn't rush to re-sign him during his hot/lucky stretch.

I'm resigned to the fact that he's always going to be a guy that leaves you wanting more.

 

I wouldn't give him more than 3.5 unless he has arbitration rights, in which case depending on the ruling I would probably walk away out right. 

[Cash or Czech]

7 minutes ago, Pete said:

I'm resigned to the fact that he's always going to be a guy that leaves you wanting more.

 

I wouldn't give him more than 3.5 unless he has arbitration rights, in which case depending on the ruling I would probably walk away out right. 

 

He does have arb rights. 

[Pete]

6 minutes ago, Cash or Czech said:

 

He does have arb rights. 

Anything over 4.5 is a hard pass.

[Sharpshooter]

At least this brings his AAV down. 

[BrooksBurner]

Chytil could go pointless the rest of the year, finish with 19 goals and 37 points, and still get $4M.

 

He’s going to finish with 20+ goals, and 40+ points. A 10 game stretch doesn’t change that. What it does change is there’s some seed of doubt if this is a rut or if it’s normalization back to mid 6 C instead of high end 2C. That for sure will impact long term numbers. He might be under $5M now on a 3+ year contract. It would probably be smart by Drury to sign him right now.

[Pete]

With the situation the team is in, Drury would be an idiot to spend $4M on a poor defensive center who can't win draws and due to injury or slump misses 45 games a season.

 

They already have a worse version of that in Kreider.

[Phil]

It's the injuries or slump stuff that's most concerning to me. When he's on, he's on fire, but when he's off, like Kreider, he's ice fucking cold. I don't envy the position Drury is in, honestly. It's kinda lose-lose.

[Morphinity 2.0]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It's the injuries or slump stuff that's most concerning to me. When he's on, he's on fire, but when he's off, like Kreider, he's ice fucking cold. I don't envy the position Drury is in, honestly. It's kinda lose-lose.

Isn't this like... any player?

 

I don't understand what's so special about Chytil. He's fast, but he does almost nothing else good. He's almost never 'on', either. 

[jsm7302]

Under 4 mil for him, I'd keep him, otherwise I'm selling semi high. 

[BrooksBurner]

26 minutes ago, Pete said:

With the situation the team is in, Drury would be an idiot to spend $4M on a poor defensive center who can't win draws and due to injury or slump misses 45 games a season.

 

They already have a worse version of that in Kreider.

 

The same Kreider who hasn't gone more than 4 games in a row without a goal since October? Pacing 36 goals? With the highest GF% and one of the highest xGF% on the team? You're still dying on this hill about Kreider?

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Morphinity 2.0 said:

Isn't this like... any player?

 

I don't understand what's so special about Chytil. He's fast, but he does almost nothing else good. He's almost never 'on', either. 

 

Sorta. All players go on hot streaks, but Chytil is like the best player on the team when he's on fire. When he was scoring seemingly at will earlier this year he was playing so well, offensively, that all the conversation went to paying him to lock him up for eight years.

[jsm7302]

Kreids isnt prolific but is solid and delivers for his contract. I like him; just have to temper expectations. That's all. He doesn't have another level.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

The same Kreider who hasn't gone more than 4 games in a row without a goal since October? Pacing 36 goals? With the highest GF% and one of the highest xGF% on the team? You're still dying on this hill about Kreider?

 

I get all this, but his larger point is still correct. You can't pay this many players who run hot/cold, because there's no guarantee you're getting them performing in trade offs.

[Pete]

20 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

The same Kreider who hasn't gone more than 4 games in a row without a goal since October? Pacing 36 goals? With the highest GF% and one of the highest xGF% on the team? You're still dying on this hill about Kreider?

The same Kreider who's prone to scoring droughts because he's had them all but 2 years of his career (and wait, there's still time this year), and whom if not scoring offers almost nothing else of value to the point you forget he's playing. Yes, him.

Edited March 13, 2023 by Pete

[Pete]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I get all this, but his larger point is still correct. You can't pay this many players who run hot/cold, because there's no guarantee you're getting them performing in trade offs.

Not even about hot cold, but more because when cold offers nothing else to your lineup.

Edited March 13, 2023 by Pete

[BrooksBurner]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I get all this, but his larger point is still correct. You can't pay this many players who run hot/cold, because there's no guarantee you're getting them performing in trade offs.

 

If you buy the characterization of Chytil that was made, sure.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Pete said:

Not even about hot cold, but more because when cold offers nothing else to your lineup.

 

Yeah, I should have included that. That's what I meant. Think Jeannot. I know, I know, broken record, but when that guy isn't scoring, he's doing something. There's something else he's bringing to games. He'll throw big hits. He'll fight. He'll PK. He'll do lots of sneaky dirty shit that irritates the hell out of opposing players. Chytil is either scoring in bunches or just existing.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

If you buy the characterization of Chytil that was made, sure.

 

In that he doesn't really bring anything else outside of his scoring? I pretty much do. When he's on, he's an incredible offensive player, but I don't really see much else there. He certainly does very little when he isn't scoring despite being 6'2, 204. Like, he's deceptively big, but does nothing with it.

[BrooksBurner]

Just now, Phil said:

 

In that he doesn't really bring anything else outside of his scoring? I pretty much do. When he's on, he's an incredible offensive player, but I don't really see much else there. He certainly does very little when he isn't scoring despite being 6'2, 204. Like, he's deceptively big, but does nothing with it.

 

I get all of that, but that's how offensive players are. Everyone wants Chytil to produce top 6 offense with bottom 6 center grit. How many of those types exist? We don't even get that from Zibanejad or Panarin, and both of those players slump plenty enough.

 

The original debate over the last year plus that the Rangers need bottom 6 center grit more than top 6 center offense is fair. To keep expecting Chytil to be both for $3.5-4M isn't.