Staple Rangers, Chytil Have Begun Preliminary Talks on Contract Extension

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Two years until UFA. At 4x4 he'd be selling two UFA years for $4M per. Don't see that happening at all. That's fire your agent kind of stuff.

That's not doing anything until year 5 of of a pro career kind of stuff.

 

If it went to arbitration he probably wouldn't sniff 4.5. 

 

Trochek just got 5.6 for being a consistent 50+ point player for 8 years.  How is Chytil getting 5 for one year where he might reach 50 points for the 1st time. 

 

He developed slowly and gradually. He will get paid in the same manor and I think he will be fine with that. 

[Pete]

8 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

Anything under $5M has sailed. Gone. At any term length.

 

So what is Drury going to do? The price just keeps going up.

Nah. He's still an RFA. 

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, Sod16 said:

Much as we hate it, the only contracts of any size without NMCs are Lindgren and Goodrow, and even those are quite modest and wouldn't result in that much cap saving when you factor in whoever replaces them on the roster.  They may try to bridge Chytil for two years, at which point Trouba and and Kreider will have no-trade lists.

 

Talk of NMC waivers  for the guys who have them on this team are largely fantasies for forums, not the real world.

 

You think we have problems now, wait until 2025, when they have to resign Shesty with Bread still on the books for another year.  Talk about trying to hammer a round peg into a square hole.

I honestly don't want to give Shestyorkin his next contract. Paying a goalie over 6 mill isn't wise anymore. If he is asking for 6 or 7 with a ton of years. I walk away. 

[Sod16]

58 minutes ago, The Dude said:

I honestly don't want to give Shestyorkin his next contract. Paying a goalie over 6 mill isn't wise anymore. If he is asking for 6 or 7 with a ton of years. I walk away. 

 

Well then, better get ready to walk when he's asking 9 per for 8, which he will be so long as he stays in the higher echelon of goalies for the next two years.

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, The Dude said:

That's not doing anything until year 5 of of a pro career kind of stuff.

 

If it went to arbitration he probably wouldn't sniff 4.5. 

 

Trochek just got 5.6 for being a consistent 50+ point player for 8 years.  How is Chytil getting 5 for one year where he might reach 50 points for the 1st time. 

 

He developed slowly and gradually. He will get paid in the same manor and I think he will be fine with that. 

 

Trocheck is an interesting guy to bring up because his second contract he signed back in 2016 was 6 years x $4.75M when he was Chytil's current age. That deal happened to also sell 2 UFA years. He only had 1 good 50 point season under his belt when he signed that. A $4.75M cap hit adjusted for inflation is easily over $5M today.

 

I'll bend on Chytil maybe coming in under 5 if the Rangers walk him right to UFA with a 2 year deal. That's usually a terribly short-sighted move from a team perspective though.

 

I really hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see him taking a discount.

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Nah. He's still an RFA. 

 

So what're you gonna do? Go 1 year arb deal? Play hard ball?

[Keirik]

For those interested to take a gander, his agent is JP Barry. Doesn’t seem to really be a top echelon agent. Not sure it means much but still interesting to look at. 

 

https://puckpedia.com/agent/jp-barry

[Scott]

50 minutes ago, Keirik said:

For those interested to take a gander, his agent is JP Barry. Doesn’t seem to really be a top echelon agent. Not sure it means much but still interesting to look at. 

 

https://puckpedia.com/agent/jp-barry

Brett Howden says go fuck yourself. 

[The Dude]

5 hours ago, Sod16 said:

 

Well then, better get ready to walk when he's asking 9 per for 8, which he will be so long as he stays in the higher echelon of goalies for the next two years.

[The Dude]

5 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Trocheck is an interesting guy to bring up because his second contract he signed back in 2016 was 6 years x $4.75M when he was Chytil's current age. That deal happened to also sell 2 UFA years. He only had 1 good 50 point season under his belt when he signed that. A $4.75M cap hit adjusted for inflation is easily over $5M today.

 

I'll bend on Chytil maybe coming in under 5 if the Rangers walk him right to UFA with a 2 year deal. That's usually a terribly short-sighted move from a team perspective though.

 

I really hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see him taking a discount.

This would be Chytil 3rd contract and would be in the league for more games than Trocheck was. Their trajectory was a bit different.  Trocheck was better- sooner and was also more apart of a upcoming core that was getting results. Trocheck was in his 2nd full season when he had a 50 point season.  This Chytils 5th full season.  

 

 

[Pete]

6 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

So what're you gonna do? Go 1 year arb deal? Play hard ball?

Arbitration usually splits the difference and the team can pick a year or 2, IIRC.

 

Either way they can give him a 1 year "show me" deal where Chytil bets on himself not only to produce but to stay healthy. You can get him under 5 and that almost doubles his salary and then extend him in January. Then you have all summer to figure out the cap. 

 

Something tells me the NHL is going to blow up the cap anyway due to the Sinclair nonsense. HRR is gonna get fucked with in a big way. 

[Kevin]

10 hours ago, The Dude said:

I honestly don't want to give Shestyorkin his next contract. Paying a goalie over 6 mill isn't wise anymore. If he is asking for 6 or 7 with a ton of years. I walk away. 

Tough spot.  I agree with you that paying a goalie a ton late in his career has always proven to be unwise.  Look at Bob in  Florida.  Even Markstrom in Calgary is looking like he's already tailing off.  A 7 or 8 year contract for Shesty, at age 29, might be crippling.  

[Kevin]

8 hours ago, Keirik said:

For those interested to take a gander, his agent is JP Barry. Doesn’t seem to really be a top echelon agent. Not sure it means much but still interesting to look at. 

 

https://puckpedia.com/agent/jp-barry

Pasta is going to break the bank for him this year.

[Sharpshooter]

21 minutes ago, Kevin said:

Tough spot.  I agree with you that paying a goalie a ton late in his career has always proven to be unwise.  Look at Bob in  Florida.  Even Markstrom in Calgary is looking like he's already tailing off.  A 7 or 8 year contract for Shesty, at age 29, might be crippling.  

It's a really tough spot, and it's hard to gauge when a drop-off is expected. It's quite a decision. At least they have some insurance in the system with Garrand.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

3 years x 4.33m.

Only 1 UFA year and he won't need a new contract before Trouba and Panarin's contracts are up. It's the only logical solution. More years and the AAV goes up too much, fewer years and we risk losing him if he takes off the next 1-2 year.

 

This way we got him locked in for good middle-6C money while this current window is open and we'll have no problem giving him 3-4m of Panarin's money IF he's the real deal by 2026.

[LindG1000]

1 hour ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

3 years x 4.33m.

Only 1 UFA year and he won't need a new contract before Trouba and Panarin's contracts are up. It's the only logical solution. More years and the AAV goes up too much, fewer years and we risk losing him if he takes off the next 1-2 year.

 

This way we got him locked in for good middle-6C money while this current window is open and we'll have no problem giving him 3-4m of Panarin's money IF he's the real deal by 2026.

 

Chytil currently makes 2.6M. He'd want a nice bump (rightfully so) from this season. And the longer he continues to produce, the higher that number is going to get. 

 

The good news is that his comparables are all like...4-6% of cap, so there's not much to indicate that he should be paid crazy amounts of money. I think he's in the 5-5.5 range, and even that is totally fine for what he delivers.

 

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

11 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

Chytil currently makes 2.6M. He'd want a nice bump (rightfully so) from this season. And the longer he continues to produce, the higher that number is going to get. 

 

The good news is that his comparables are all like...4-6% of cap, so there's not much to indicate that he should be paid crazy amounts of money. I think he's in the 5-5.5 range, and even that is totally fine for what he delivers.

 

I think 5+ is way too much for a guy that scored 23 points four seasons in a row and then had a nice contract year.

 

If it's 5 years+ I get it, but a 2-3 years bridge deal that mainly eats RFA years shouldn't be much over 4m, if any at all.

[RJWantsTheCup]

Anything under 5M per year has to be seriously considered doing.  Over 5M per year is a bit more questionable.  Some of the money recently thrown around is going to make it harder to keep the annual average down to an affordable amount for the Rangers.

[LindG1000]

6 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

I think 5+ is way too much for a guy that scored 23 points four seasons in a row and then had a nice contract year.

 

If it's 5 years+ I get it, but a 2-3 years bridge deal that mainly eats RFA years shouldn't be much over 4m, if any at all.

Maybe, but you're talking about a guy currently on a 60-point pace in his contract year (yes, he is seriously on a 60 point pace). Those guys get paid. In fact, they often get paid much more. 

 

I bookended him between Jack Roslovic (similar amount of games played and scoring outcomes at end of season) and Jakub Vrana (maybe a bit higher end than Chytil's been but not entirely unreasonable), but is he really out of line if he keeps pace and asks for 6+?

 

Dylan Strome is scoring at a similar pace and is three years older. He just signed for 5 flat.

Vincent Trocheck is scoring at a similar pace and he makes 5.75 (obviously UFA years here)

Sam Bennett is scoring at a slightly lower pace and makes 4.5

 

 

What Chytil doesn't have is a history of producing like this, which is why he'd be out of line asking for contracts like Nick Suzuki or Dylan Cozens, but I don't think he'd be too out of line asking for something in the 5.5 range at this point.

[Long live the King]

It's not really that complicated.  Trading Goodrow is the answer.

 

Goodrow + Chytil + Laf + Blais + Miller + Buyouts + Cap Increase = $13,744,445

 

Chytil ($5x5) + Laf ($2.25x2) + Miller ($3x3) + Cuylle replacing Blais ($828k) + Othmann replacing Goodrow ($797k) = $11,875,833

 

Gives you a line up of:

 

Panarin - Zib - Othmann/Vesey
Laf - Chytil - Kakko
Kreider - Trocheck - Othmann/Vesey
Cuylle - Leschyshyn - 

 

Lindgren - Fox

Miller - Trouba

Harpur - Schneider

 

You now have about $7,000,000 (left over from above plus the money currently spent on Hajek, Krav, Gauthier, and Halak + current cap space) left for a backup G, 7th D, a 4th liner, and a 13th forward. 

 

It'll be a repeat of this year with the TDL goal being a top 6 RW.  Next years rental list potentially includes:  Wheeler, Reinhart, Zucc, Perron, Toffoli, Eberle.

 

[Jdog99]

Not sure why past performance weighs too heavily in this case...cause the point is it looks like he's just broken out.

 

It'd be like saying to Tage Thomson - hey its looking like your the real deal but you were a scrub for your first few years so don't expect a whole lot (granted he'd earn 9-10m if he was a free agent right now...)

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

1 minute ago, LindG1000 said:

What Chytil doesn't have is a history of producing like this, which is why he'd be out of line asking for contracts like Nick Suzuki or Dylan Cozens, but I don't think he'd be too out of line asking for something in the 5.5 range at this point.

I think the combination of "no history" and the fact that he's still a RFA for two more years should make us able to keep this under 5m (for 3 years), but it's hard to say. I don't think I've ever seen someone have this big of a difference between his career avg and his contract year totals, while also being RFA for multiple years.

 

Trocheck is a career 50p player, who's paced 60 points a couple times and also hit 70 points once. He got 5.75m as a UFA in his prime years. I'm struggling to see how Chytil deserves close to that after just one good season.

 

Besides, Chytil has no leverage here. He can sign a 5m x1 year deal if he's willing to gamble on his health and play to continue like it has this season (while shooting 20%) or he can take 13m over 3 years and take himself to UFA at 25 so he can cash in big time.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

  

3 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

Next years rental list potentially includes:  Wheeler, Reinhart, Zucc, Perron, Toffoli, Eberle.

[Long live the King]

Just now, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

  

 

I mean they're a fringe playoff team this year.  They lose Dumba with his whole cap hit going to Boldy instead of a top 4 D replacement and MAF with be 39....

[LindG1000]

4 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

I think the combination of "no history" and the fact that he's still a RFA for two more years should make us able to keep this under 5m (for 3 years), but it's hard to say. I don't think I've ever seen someone have this big of a difference between his career avg and his contract year totals, while also being RFA for multiple years.

 

Trocheck is a career 50p player, who's paced 60 points a couple times and also hit 70 points once. He got 5.75m as a UFA in his prime years. I'm struggling to see how Chytil deserves close to that after just one good season.

 

Besides, Chytil has no leverage here. He can sign a 5m x1 year deal if he's willing to gamble on his health and play to continue like it has this season (while shooting 20%) or he can take 13m over 3 years and take himself to UFA at 25 so he can cash in big time.

 

Chytil is on a 30-goal pace and headed to arbitration. He's two years away from being a 25-year-old UFA. He's got cards to play here. 

 

It also isn't surprising to see a 23 year old break out. It just feels that way because he's the third longest tenured Ranger and he's a baby.