Staple Rangers, Chytil Have Begun Preliminary Talks on Contract Extension

[LindG1000]

5 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

I mean they're a fringe playoff team this year.  They lose Dumba with his whole cap hit going to Boldy instead of a top 4 D replacement and MAF with be 39....

For a team getting trucked by buyout hits, they're in shockingly good shape. 

[Long live the King]

2 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

For a team getting trucked by buyout hits, they're in shockingly good shape. 

 

But still cap straped enough that the Zib-Zucc reunion for next year's cup run is a real possibility.  Fuck it, Hank's heart should be healed up.  Sign him for league min to be the backup.

[Sharpshooter]

"Those aren't boos!" returning to an MSG broadcast booth next year!!

[Drew a Penalty]

Chytil is currently playing in his fifth NHL season, he only has one more year of RFA after this one, and would be a very rare UFA at 25. Any bridge deal you offer him can't exceed one year unless you want to take him straight to free agency. Your options are a one year bridge or something with some kind of term, but no matter what you're mostly eating UFA years for Chytil.

 

Comparables I would look at are Jesperi Kotkaniemi ($4.82M x 8), Joel Eriksson Ek ($5.25M x 8), and William Karlsson ($5.25M x 1 then $5.9M x 8).

 

Jesperi Kotkaniemi (Signed March 21)

Contract Year (Through March 21): 59 GP, 11 G, 12 A, .39 P/GP, 14.7 S%, 12:01 TOI/GP

Career through Contract Year (Through March 21): 230 GP, 33 G, 52 A, .37 P/GP, 9.4 S%, 13:26 TOI/GP

 

Joel Eriksson Ek

Contract Year: 56 GP, 19 G, 11 A, .54 P/GP, 16 S%, 17:03 TOI/GP

Career through Contract Year: 266 GP, 43 G, 53 A, .36 P/GP, 9.1 S%, 14:24 TOI/GP

 

William Karlsson

Contract Year 1: 82 GP, 43 G, 35 A, .95 P/GP, 23.4 S%, 18:43 TOI/GP

Contract Year 2 (Bridge): 82 GP, 24 G, 32 A, .68 P/GP, 14.2 S%, 18:51 TOI/GP

Career through Contract Year: 265 GP, 61 G, 67 A, .48 P/GP, 14.6 S%, 15:17 TOI/GP

 

Filip Chytil

Contract Year: 42 GP, 18 G, 13 A, .74 P/GP, 19.4 S%, 14:23 TOI/GP 

Career through Contract Year: 295 GP, 60 G, 64 A, .42 P/GP 10.5 S%, 13:52 TOI/GP

 

I think Chytil falls between Eriksson Ek and Karlsson. Chytil's contract year is better than Eriksson Ek's but worse than Karlsson's 1st. You also see a considerable spike in S% compared to career AVG in both Chytil (8.9) and Karlsson (8.8). Do you play it safe with Chytil and bridge him to get a better idea of how his S% holds? Karlsson regressed back to average.

 

I think something like $4.5M x 1 or $5.25M x 4 or 5 is ultimately where Chytil ends up. Any deal he signs only eats up 1 RFA year versus 3 for Kotkaniemi and Eriksson Ek and none for Karlsson.

[Jdog99]

Hasn't there also been a unique trend in the last few years to get ahead on young guys and offer long term contracts with impressive aav based on the little they've shown but project to become?

 

Fox, Hughes, Suzuki for instance...probably some others...

 

I would think that kind of thinking factors into this negotiation.

[BrooksBurner]

23 minutes ago, Drew a Penalty said:

Chytil is currently playing in his fifth NHL season, he only has one more year of RFA after this one, and would be a very rare UFA at 25. Any bridge deal you offer him can't exceed one year unless you want to take him straight to free agency. Your options are a one year bridge or something with some kind of term, but no matter what you're mostly eating UFA years for Chytil.

 

Comparables I would look at are Jesperi Kotkaniemi ($4.82M x 8), Joel Eriksson Ek ($5.25M x 8), and William Karlsson ($5.25M x 1 then $5.9M x 8).

 

Jesperi Kotkaniemi (Signed March 21)

Contract Year (Through March 21): 59 GP, 11 G, 12 A, .39 P/GP, 14.7 S%, 12:01 TOI/GP

Career through Contract Year (Through March 21): 230 GP, 33 G, 52 A, .37 P/GP, 9.4 S%, 13:26 TOI/GP

 

Joel Eriksson Ek

Contract Year: 56 GP, 19 G, 11 A, .54 P/GP, 16 S%, 17:03 TOI/GP

Career through Contract Year: 266 GP, 43 G, 53 A, .36 P/GP, 9.1 S%, 14:24 TOI/GP

 

William Karlsson

Contract Year 1: 82 GP, 43 G, 35 A, .95 P/GP, 23.4 S%, 18:43 TOI/GP

Contract Year 2 (Bridge): 82 GP, 24 G, 32 A, 14.2 S%, 18:51 TOI/GP

Career through Contract Year: 265 GP, 61 G, 67 A, .48 P/GP, 14.6 S%, 15:17 TOI/GP

 

Filip Chytil

Contract Year: 42 GP, 18 G, 13 A, .74 P/GP, 19.4 S%, 14:23 TOI/GP 

Career through Contract Year: 295 GP, 60 G, 64 A, .42 P/GP 10.5 S%, 13:52 TOI/GP

 

I think Chytil falls between Eriksson Ek and Karlsson. Chytil's contract year is better than Eriksson Ek's but worse than Karlsson's 1st. You also see a considerable spike in S% compared to career AVG in both Chytil (8.9) and Karlsson (8.8). Do you play it safe with Chytil and bridge him to get a better idea of how his S% holds? Karlsson regressed back to average.

 

I think something like $4.5M x 1 or $5.25M x 4 or 5 is ultimately where Chytil ends up. Any deal he signs only eats up 1 RFA year versus 3 for Kotkaniemi and Eriksson Ek and none for Karlsson.

 

I'm pretty sure he has two more RFA years left. He will have played 5 seasons and you need 7 to hit UFA.

[Drew a Penalty]

Just now, BrooksBurner said:

 

I'm pretty sure he has two more RFA years left. He will have played 5 seasons and you need 7 to hit UFA.

 

Next year makes 6. The following makes 7. UFA after 7.

[BrooksBurner]

Just now, Drew a Penalty said:

 

Next year makes 6. The following makes 7. UFA after 7.

 

Ah ok. I was confused by "he only has one more year of RFA after this one". That made it sound like next year is his last RFA year, but I see what you meant now.

 

I think your estimation is fair. I also think a 1 year bridge deal would be incredibly short sighted and not something Chytil or the team would want.

[Ozzy]

I went back and found some of my past Chytil bashing posts, and may I say "BEING WRONG NEVER FELT SOOOOO GOOD!!!"

 

On 2/18/2022 at 10:40 AM, Ozzy said:

Ironic that Uncle Larry dangles this in front of us at this point....

 

I really can't figure out Chytil at all.  Here's a guy who's 6' 3", 205 lbs, and to me he seems to play way too soft.  He gets bumped off the puck seemingly like a feather, and he loses way too many 50/50 puck battles on the boards for my liking.

 

I know the kid has talent, but it's been 5 seasons now...Am I wrong to just fold the cards on this kid, and say he's just never going to be that guy?  I sure as hell have no idea what this kid is ever going to be, but I just don't feel any battle level in this kid.

 

I think that's what irks me most about him.  I see "battle level" in Yukon, and also Kakko.  Hell, I felt battle level in Schneider since day 1!  I don't get that same vibe from Chytil.  The worst part is that Chytil's trade value probably sucks right now, and not only do we run the risk of "We trade him and he becomes a 40 goal/PPG scorer", but we get absolute dog shit for him in return.

 

I see Drury going down the road of "Damned if you do, and Damned if you don't" with Chytil.  I figure we can at the very least, see him for one more year with his contract still in place, but I don't expect him to be on the upcoming playoff roster at this point, especially when we make a deal for some upgrades.   He'd most likely be a part of a deal, but if he isn't, I wouldn't feel comfortable with him in a 7 game playoff series.

 

It's gonna be really tricky, and I can't fault Drury if he ultimately decides to give this kid up.  Our window is now open for business, so anything kinda goes from here, I think.

 

On 10/24/2022 at 8:42 AM, Ozzy said:

I've been hit harder walking the sidewalks in Patchogue!!

 

A minute and a half into the game and now we have to scramble everything because Filomena got hit with a fucking purse and broke a pimple. 

 

I watched that replay several times, and I'm not seeing a great deal of "forceful contact".

 

On 11/15/2021 at 10:41 AM, Ozzy said:

I would try Chytil on Jeopardy....  LOL

 

On 12/15/2021 at 12:16 PM, Ozzy said:

I think if there's too much moving around of guys we'll fuck it up more.  I'd rather just keep it simple:

Chytil and whatever we package with him out....(Basically jumping on board with Phil and Pete's original theory here...)

Bring in a JT Miller/Giroux or veteran center...Done!

 

 

On 10/7/2021 at 9:05 AM, Ozzy said:

 

I kinda wanna see what he does this year before I write him totally off.  I've been kinda down on Chytil as well, but I sure as fuck don't wanna go down the road with Eichel.  I'd rather have Zibber and Strome than Eichel, and I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell you can have all 3 under the cap.

I like Phil's idea of a Jenner type player for the 3C, and I also think if we hang on a little and give it at least this season, we can have an even better idea of who Chytil is or isn't.  If he can't make strides under Gallant, then I'm sold on him taking the midnight train to Georgia, so to speak.

 

On 11/9/2021 at 3:30 PM, Ozzy said:

I'm really concerned with Chytil;  Fucking guy just can't stay on the ice and his play doesn't really fit anywhere.  We definitely need a 3C and that faceoff issue is GLARING at this point!

This certainly looks like a solid idea....but I figure possibly a deadline deal, if we're looking to be in contention for a playoff spot!

 

On 11/9/2021 at 3:55 PM, Ozzy said:

I know...

I suppose you're right, boss.... even though I've seen players like Duclair and Graves (Ryan) who get it after we give up on them.  I have to agree with you though...why wait?  His game, either way doesn't seem to fit here.  He doesn't look like he can supplant Strome and he's definitely NOT a #3 center.  He seems to lack the body mass and hockey IQ to me.

 

 

Chytil basically saying to me:  Hey Ozzy!! Fuck off, you old dick!!! 

I'm lovin' it kid!!!!  LOL

Edited February 8, 2023 by Ozzy

[Drew a Penalty]

8 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Ah ok. I was confused by "he only has one more year of RFA after this one". That made it sound like next year is his last RFA year, but I see what you meant now.

 

I think your estimation is fair. I also think a 1 year bridge deal would be incredibly short sighted and not something Chytil or the team would want.

 

It's the final year after which they have control. That's what final year of RFA control means.

 

The one year deal has risks and benefits to both sides. Chytil can underproduce and come out with less than he would've gotten this season, or outproduce and come away with much more. If Chytil scores 30+ goals this season, the Rangers might want to be sure that's something he can replicate before locking in. A near 10% jump in S% is considerable, and 19.4% isn't really sustainable year over year. 

 

The best contract for all parties is probably that 4 or 5 year deal. Chytil has the opportunity to test UFA at 27 or 28, and the Rangers don't get locked in for long-term if he doesn't take off.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

42 minutes ago, Jdog99 said:

Hasn't there also been a unique trend in the last few years to get ahead on young guys and offer long term contracts with impressive aav based on the little they've shown but project to become?

 

Fox, Hughes, Suzuki for instance...probably some others...

 

I would think that kind of thinking factors into this negotiation.

You’re probably right in general, but Fox had a Norris when he signed the contract.

[BrooksBurner]

20 minutes ago, Drew a Penalty said:

 

It's the final year after which they have control. That's what final year of RFA control means.

 

The one year deal has risks and benefits to both sides. Chytil can underproduce and come out with less than he would've gotten this season, or outproduce and come away with much more. If Chytil scores 30+ goals this season, the Rangers might want to be sure that's something he can replicate before locking in. A near 10% jump in S% is considerable, and 19.4% isn't really sustainable year over year. 

 

The best contract for all parties is probably that 4 or 5 year deal. Chytil has the opportunity to test UFA at 27 or 28, and the Rangers don't get locked in for long-term if he doesn't take off.

 

Agree on all of that.

 

Toss another interesting comparable who the Rangers are very familiar with: Mika Zibanejad. His 3rd contract back in 2017 was 5 years @ $5.35M, and it was also signed when he was 23 with 2 more RFA years left like Chytil. He had a bit more production next to his name than Chytil, strictly from elevated PP and TOI, but the ES production was strikingly similar.

[Drew a Penalty]

5 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Agree on all of that.

 

Toss another interesting comparable who the Rangers are very familiar with: Mika Zibanejad. His 3rd contract back in 2017 was 5 years @ $5.35M, and it was also signed when he was 23 with 2 more RFA years left like Chytil. He had a bit more production next to his name than Chytil, strictly from elevated PP and TOI, but the ES production was strikingly similar.

 

So basically $5.2-5.35M x 4 or 5 is the sweet spot.

[Phil]

 

[Br4d]

Rangers just need to get the appropriate deal done.

 

Chytil didn't break out this season he started in the playoffs last season.  What he's doing this year is a step up from that but 7 goals in the playoffs on 3rd line minutes with little PP time was an indicator that he was finally showing his true colors.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Br4d

[jsm7302]

Brooks had an article comparing to Cozens and couple others and the expectation is the 5-7 mil. How do they do it and field a roster next year? Gotta shed Lindgren and Kreider or Goodrow.

Edited February 10, 2023 by jsm7302

[Phil]

Chytil is on pace for like 60/61 points at 0.7 P/GP. Kinda feel like he'll be south of Cozens (0.9 P/GP player this season), but get the feeling any real multi-year deal is starting with a 6.

[Br4d]

It's probably going to be Kreider.

 

Rangers would be nuts to trade Lindgren at this point.  He's turning into one of the better defensive LD in the NHL.

[LindG1000]

I don't see a way to make it happen short of a significant trade. Kreider, Trouba, Trocheck - one of those three. 

 

I'd zero in on Kreider or Trocheck. Kreider's contract is fair, he's extremely well-regarded around the league, net-front presences on the PP are coveted, and his return will be fair and significant. Othmann slotting in at 3LW as an instant replacement is a big plus there (not production wise, but he's NHL ready). Trocheck is early in his contract, but he's fairly paid for his role and competent 2Cs are also well-coveted assets. 

 

[Tomas Sandstrom]

On 2/8/2023 at 3:19 PM, Ozzy said:

I went back and found some of my past Chytil bashing posts, and may I say "BEING WRONG NEVER FELT SOOOOO GOOD!!!"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chytil basically saying to me:  Hey Ozzy!! Fuck off, you old dick!!! 

I'm lovin' it kid!!!!  LOL

 

As much as we hate hearing this, the absolute right thing is to be patient with young talented players. 

 

That's probably the most frustrating thing, but also necessary with a lot of young players.  "Sometimes, it just takes time".  Experience helps.  Chytil had a great playoffs last year, which was huge for his confidence, and now look at where he's at. 

 

Often times, it takes that one "spark" for the light to turn on...you hope that spark comes sooner rather than later, but as Axl Rose so eloquently put it:  All we need is just a little Patience

[Phil]

27 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

I don't see a way to make it happen short of a significant trade. Kreider, Trouba, Trocheck - one of those three. 

 

I'd zero in on Kreider or Trocheck. Kreider's contract is fair, he's extremely well-regarded around the league, net-front presences on the PP are coveted, and his return will be fair and significant. Othmann slotting in at 3LW as an instant replacement is a big plus there (not production wise, but he's NHL ready). Trocheck is early in his contract, but he's fairly paid for his role and competent 2Cs are also well-coveted assets.

 

I want to pull the chute on Trocheck as hard as humanely possible.

[RangersIn7]

On 2/8/2023 at 3:19 PM, Ozzy said:

I went back and found some of my past Chytil bashing posts, and may I say "BEING WRONG NEVER FELT SOOOOO GOOD!!!"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chytil basically saying to me:  Hey Ozzy!! Fuck off, you old dick!!! 

I'm lovin' it kid!!!!  LOL

 

32 minutes ago, Tomas Sandstrom said:

 

As much as we hate hearing this, the absolute right thing is to be patient with young talented players. 

 

That's probably the most frustrating thing, but also necessary with a lot of young players.  "Sometimes, it just takes time".  Experience helps.  Chytil had a great playoffs last year, which was huge for his confidence, and now look at where he's at. 

 

Often times, it takes that one "spark" for the light to turn on...you hope that spark comes sooner rather than later, but as Axl Rose so eloquently put it:  All we need is just a little Patience

Yup

 

Cause it’s damn hard to play in the NHL.

Especially as a teenager. And guys need time and reps to figure it out.

 

And that takes however long that takes

[Long live the King]

Easiest path is still Goodrow.  With only moving him you can sign Chytil to $5-5.5 for 3 years.  That gives you time for both Kreider and Trocheck to go from NMC to NTC and for the cap to go up.  Cozens got $7+ because of the term.  If you can get Kreider or Trocheck to waive the NMC this summer great, you can give Chytil more money and years, but that will be much harder to pull off.

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

Easiest path is still Goodrow.  With only moving him you can sign Chytil to $5-5.5 for 3 years.  That gives you time for both Kreider and Trocheck to go from NMC to NTC and for the cap to go up.  Cozens got $7+ because of the term.  If you can get Kreider or Trocheck to waive the NMC this summer great, you can give Chytil more money and years, but that will be much harder to pull off.

 

Cozens got 7+ because he's a 0.9 P/GP player this year. Chytil is 0.7.

[Long live the King]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Cozens got 7+ because he's a 0.9 P/GP player this year. Chytil is 0.7.

 

He's also still on his ELC and wasn't as close to UFA. 

 

But for comparables sake you have Boldy on ELC (.72) and Cozens on ELC (.88) signed pretty much the same deal.

 

Thompson was .87 last year and signed right before entering the final season of his second deal.  Hintz was .90 last year and signed on Nov 9, after starting the final year of his second deal with 17 points in 13 games.  Hintz got about $1.25 million more and an 8th year.

 

While Chytil is currently at .74, he has 15 points in the last 13 games.  He may not sustain a more than a ppg pace but finishing over .80 on the season is likely.  Only way to keep the AAV out of the 7's is if the deal is 2 or 3 years.

 

Edited February 10, 2023 by Long live the King