(2C) Dallas Stars vs. (3P) Edmonton Oilers
REGULAR SEASON STANDINGS:
Stars: 50-26-6, 106 points
Oilers: 48-29-5, 101 points
SEASON SERIES:
DAL: 2-1-0; EDM: 1-2-0
GAME BREAKERS:
Stars: Miro Heiskanen is the definition of an X-factor here. The defenseman missed the final 32 regular-season games and the first 10 postseason games after injuring his knee in a collision with Mark Stone of the Golden Knights on Jan. 28. He returned for Game 4 of the second round and there were all sorts of questions about what he would be able to contribute. Those questions are fewer and farther between at this point. Heiskanen played 23:40 in Game 6, almost nine minutes more than the 14:52 he played in his debut five days earlier. By the end of the three games, Heiskanen was confidently jumping into plays and keying the transition game for the Stars. In doing so, he gave the team a new look that makes it that much harder to defend. He finished the series with two assists and seeing top-line minutes with Harley.
Oilers: This is the type of series in which Corey Perry thrives: physical, north-south, no-quarter-given, no-quarter-asked hockey. The Stars know this as well as anyone. They traded for him during the 2019-20 season to make them a better playoff team and he did. Dallas made it to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final before losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning. He is in his second season of trying to help the Oilers get over the hump. This postseason, he is tied with Draisaitl for the team lead in goals (five). He digs out pucks along the walls and then he goes to the net, where he will make life miserable for Oettinger.
GOALTENDING:
Stars: Oettinger is 8-5 with a 2.47 GAA and a .919 save percentage. He has been a workhorse for Dallas, starting each of the 13 games. He was pulled late in the second period of Game 4 against Colorado in the first round after allowing three goals on 34 shots, but he had won each of the two previous games in overtime. He has yet to lose two games in a row in these playoffs and is 5-0 with a .929 save percentage (131 saves on 141 shots) in games following losses. In the conference final last season, Oettinger stopped 145 of 161 shots (.900 save percentage in the series, but struggled in the last three games, all losses.
Oilers: Edmonton used both goalies in the first two rounds. Skinner, the No. 1 goalie, started the first two games against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round but was ineffective, allowing 11 goals on 58 shots (.810 save percentage). Calvin Pickard won each of the next six games but was injured in the Game 2 victory against the Golden Knights. Skinner reentered the fray and went 2-1 with a 1.28 GAA, a .944 save percentage and two straight shutouts to close out the series after a shaky 4-3 loss in Game 3. He has not allowed a goal in 127:15. Pickard could return during this series, coach Kris Knoblauch said.
WILL WIN IF:
Stars: Depth scoring must continue. The Stars have gotten goals from 12 different players in their first 13 games of the postseason. They’ll need more of that against the Oilers, who shut down the top scorers for the Golden Knights in the last round. Pavel Dorofeyev, Tomas Hertl, Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev and Brett Howden were the top five goal-scorers for Vegas during the regular season; they combined for zero goals in the second-round series, and the Golden Knights did not score a goal in either of the final two games, including Game 5, which went into overtime.
Oilers: They get their power play firing. After being on fire in the first round, Edmonton's power-play units lost the plot against Vegas, going 1-for-11 (9.1 percent) in the second round. Somehow, the Oilers survived and advanced. McDavid doesn’t have a power-play goal after 11 games, and Edmonton has yet to score a power-play goal in six road games this postseason. It’s unlikely the Oilers will win another round like that, especially considering Dallas was at 31.3 percent on the power play against the Winnipeg Jets in the second round and scored the series-winning goal with the man-advantage.
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