Alexis Lafreniere and the Rangers Reach a Critical Point

[LindG1000]

I'm not even sure what the calculus is on this sort of thing. As stated earlier - these are weird, rare trades. If you can swap him for a Byfield or something like that, sure - that makes some sense, but otherwise?

 

Given our cap situation and assuming there's not a Byfield or someone similar we could get for Laf, here's where we're likely at:

 

I think the Rangers are going to be committing to Miller longer term. He's a core piece.

I think Chytil's earned himself a decent bump. On this team, he's a strong complementary piece, and he may want to go somewhere he can be the guy. But he's earned the raise.

I do think there's good reason to start thinking about what Kakko makes after next season. He's looking more like a core piece by the game.

There's equally good reason to figure out what it will take to keep Lindgren and Schneider. Lindgren is a strong complementary piece and really shouldn't get too much more. Schneider's growth trajectory is starting to feel like he's a core piece and will be due a contract rather similar to what Miller ends up getting.

 

All that considered? I'm not sure there's a better risk/reward investment to make than to bridge Lafreniere at something like 3x3 and throw significant organizational resources at figuring him out. 

[BrooksBurner]

I don't think Lafreniere switching teams is solely a team decision, in fact it's probably at least half his decision, so I'm going to sympathize with Lafreniere for a minute here and put myself in his shoes.

 

I've succeeded all my life at every level. I've been the go-to guy on all of my teams. I was the #1 OA pick and pretty much every #1 OA in the sport gets gobs of ice time and PP time to put up good stats whether they are playing a good brand of hockey or not the first few years. Production equals money, and ultimately it equals recognition from peers, fans, journalists, everyone. Instead, I'm log jammed behind two high end LWers who aren't going anywhere. I'm not getting PP time any time soon and it doesn't really matter what I do, it's not changing that fact. As a result, my production is down out of usage manipulation. The decreased production is being used against me in contract negotiations, and it's drawing negative press because now I'm being painted as the worst 1OA in years. Moves to the right side ultimately haven't been comfortable for me, and my coach has yanked me out of that position more than once. I don't know if I'm supposed to be a LW or a RW or what my future position is with this team. My counterpart in Kakko has been in a similar situation, and he had to tuck his tail between his legs and take a real shit-burger of a bridge contract, but the difference is his natural position has been completely open for him to make noise. It's as much on him for not taking advantage. I, on the other hand, haven't had that opportunity to play knowing I could elevate in the lineup at the position I've played since I was like 12.

 

There's a massive amount of reasons for anger and hostility towards the organization even if he's not outwardly showing it. He would have every right to tell Drury to shit or get off the pot. He would have every right to say he's not going to let his career go stale in the bottom 6 here, or be forced to have to adjust to an unnatural position to him where he might not be as good - and again, production = money. He would have every right to hand out an ultimatum to Drury, demanding either a trade or a serious commitment to him with legitimate opportunity in advantageous situations. The ultimatum is backed by signing the first offer sheet he gets that would put the team in a complete bind cap-wise. A faction of fans would call him a selfish entitled brat who just can't handle adversity, but I would call him a normal human being looking out for his own career above all else first. I would respect it. It's OK to be selfish at times, and this would be one of those times.

[Scott]

[Keirik]

1 hour ago, LindG1000 said:

I'm not even sure what the calculus is on this sort of thing. As stated earlier - these are weird, rare trades. If you can swap him for a Byfield or something like that, sure - that makes some sense, but otherwise?

 

Given our cap situation and assuming there's not a Byfield or someone similar we could get for Laf, here's where we're likely at:

 

I think the Rangers are going to be committing to Miller longer term. He's a core piece.

I think Chytil's earned himself a decent bump. On this team, he's a strong complementary piece, and he may want to go somewhere he can be the guy. But he's earned the raise.

I do think there's good reason to start thinking about what Kakko makes after next season. He's looking more like a core piece by the game.

There's equally good reason to figure out what it will take to keep Lindgren and Schneider. Lindgren is a strong complementary piece and really shouldn't get too much more. Schneider's growth trajectory is starting to feel like he's a core piece and will be due a contract rather similar to what Miller ends up getting.

 

All that considered? I'm not sure there's a better risk/reward investment to make than to bridge Lafreniere at something like 3x3 and throw significant organizational resources at figuring him out. 

He gets kakkos deal with maybe 500k-1m more for the difference between 1st and 2nd overall. If he does not agree to that, then he has two options really. Play in Europe and revisit this next year where he's still the same rfa with no leverage or we trade him for another top 5 pick that hasn't shown much yet, i.e. Byfield or similar. If I'm the Rangers,  my first call is to Montreal to see what they want for a French Canadian prospect that at one time was an up and coming legend. 

I will say this though. There has been little to no indication that Alexis himself wants put or is disgruntled. We might be in an environment where there's a positive culture and we just don't realize it. Vesey just recapped for pennis more. Kakko reupped at a bridge. Etc.

[Pete]

8 hours ago, rmc51 said:

I don't think Lafreniere switching teams is solely a team decision, in fact it's probably at least half his decision, so I'm going to sympathize with Lafreniere for a minute here and put myself in his shoes.

 

I've succeeded all my life at every level. I've been the go-to guy on all of my teams. I was the #1 OA pick and pretty much every #1 OA in the sport gets gobs of ice time and PP time to put up good stats whether they are playing a good brand of hockey or not the first few years. Production equals money, and ultimately it equals recognition from peers, fans, journalists, everyone. Instead, I'm log jammed behind two high end LWers who aren't going anywhere. I'm not getting PP time any time soon and it doesn't really matter what I do, it's not changing that fact. As a result, my production is down out of usage manipulation. The decreased production is being used against me in contract negotiations, and it's drawing negative press because now I'm being painted as the worst 1OA in years. Moves to the right side ultimately haven't been comfortable for me, and my coach has yanked me out of that position more than once. I don't know if I'm supposed to be a LW or a RW or what my future position is with this team. My counterpart in Kakko has been in a similar situation, and he had to tuck his tail between his legs and take a real shit-burger of a bridge contract, but the difference is his natural position has been completely open for him to make noise. It's as much on him for not taking advantage. I, on the other hand, haven't had that opportunity to play knowing I could elevate in the lineup at the position I've played since I was like 12.

 

There's a massive amount of reasons for anger and hostility towards the organization even if he's not outwardly showing it. He would have every right to tell Drury to shit or get off the pot. He would have every right to say he's not going to let his career go stale in the bottom 6 here, or be forced to have to adjust to an unnatural position to him where he might not be as good - and again, production = money. He would have every right to hand out an ultimatum to Drury, demanding either a trade or a serious commitment to him with legitimate opportunity in advantageous situations. The ultimatum is backed by signing the first offer sheet he gets that would put the team in a complete bind cap-wise. A faction of fans would call him a selfish entitled brat who just can't handle adversity, but I would call him a normal human being looking out for his own career above all else first. I would respect it. It's OK to be selfish at times, and this would be one of those times.

This is off base on so many levels, but the number one thing you're forgetting to acknowledge in your Lafreniere-self is that you, yourself, have done nothing to distinguish yourself, nothing to earn power play time, etc. 

 

This is spoken like somebody who wants things handed to them instead of having to earn them, which surprises me. It's also spoken like a player I wouldn't want on my team anyway. It just reeks of entitlement. 

 

There was a ton of opportunity the first year he was here. He simply didn't take advantage of it and he came in with a whimper instead of a roar. Last year the team was winning and the power play was working. Because of his own play, he would probably be 3rd or 4th down the list of they ever decided to change PP1.

 

Whether or not you love or hate the coach, leaving the power play alone is the one thing he's done right, because frankly it just works even though it's sometimes slumps. 

 

You can write a diatribe on how people should feel or what the organization could have done, but the bottom line is his own play on the ice is not reflective of a first overall with boatloads of talent, nor is his effort level.

 

So there's probably a chain of blame to go around, but he's the first link in the chain. 

 

And no one is going to offer sheet him. The league is learning from Carolina's fourth line Center. And if he signs an offer sheet, let him go, because I'm sure one of those draft picks will wind up being a 30 point third line left-wing, which is all he is. And they'll probably bring more effort, be better defensively, penalties, and hey you might even come out of a game noticing that they played which would be a stark difference from what we're seeing from number 13 right now. 

Edited January 5, 2023 by Pete

[BrooksBurner]

47 minutes ago, Pete said:

This is off base on so many levels, but the number one thing you're forgetting to acknowledge in your Lafreniere-self is that you, yourself, have done nothing to distinguish yourself, nothing to earn power play time, etc. 

 

I only left it out because I've said it enough in other posts. I'm looking from a "pro-Lafreniere" side of things here.

 

Quote

This is spoken like somebody who wants things handed to them instead of having to earn them, which surprises me. It's also spoken like a player I wouldn't want on my team anyway. It just reeks of entitlement. 

 

Repeating the last bit in my post:

 

Quote

A faction of fans would call him a selfish entitled brat who just can't handle adversity, but I would call him a normal human being looking out for his own career above all else first. I would respect it. It's OK to be selfish at times, and this would be one of those times.

 

 

Quote

There was a ton of opportunity the first year he was here. He simply didn't take advantage of it and he came in with a whimper instead of a roar. Last year the team was winning and the power play was working. Because of his own play, he would probably be 3rd or 4th down the list of they ever decided to change PP1.

 

The first year without training camp, during Covid, which started mid January and was a shortened season? Disclaimer: this is the only year I accept Covid as a valid excuse.

 

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Whether or not you love or hate the coach, leaving the power play alone is the one thing he's done right, because frankly it just works even though it's sometimes slumps. 

 

Lafreniere might not even disagree with that. It still stunts his ability to produce and make money like he would on many other teams.

 

Quote

You can write a diatribe on how people should feel or what the organization could have done, but the bottom line is his own play on the ice is not reflective of a first overall with boatloads of talent, nor is his effort level.

 

Lack of clear opportunity and direction can contribute to complacency. Again, he's not going to get PP1 time, and he's not getting top 6 time at his natural LW position. His way to the top 6 is by playing an uncomfortable-to-him position. We just went through an exercise where a wily vet in Kreider supposedly can't even switch sides. Apparently it's ok to have expectations about a much younger player being able to seamlessly switch?

 

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So there's probably a chain of blame to go around, but he's the first link in the chain. 

 

Don't agree. Team situation is the first link in the chain. Clear lack of direction is next. The guy gets moved around and flipped between positions constantly. He's third, and deserves a lot of blame for failure to put his head down and be in top notch condition.

 

Quote

And no one is going to offer sheet him. The league is learning from Carolina's fourth line Center. And if he signs an offer sheet, let him go, because I'm sure one of those draft picks will wind up being a 30 point third line left-wing, which is all he is. And they'll probably bring more effort, be better defensively, penalties, and hey you might even come out of a game noticing that they played which would be a stark difference from what we're seeing from number 13 right now. 

 

All the league did was learn not to act out of spite like the Canes did there. They didn't like Aho being offer sheeted, so they acted on Kotkaniemi out of spite. Kotkaniemi had nobody blocking his path in Montreal. He just wasn't good enough. It was not a well-calculated risk by the Canes. The league also learned if you go for an offer sheet, don't short change it like the Canadiens did on Aho (that was an easy match for the Canes). Go bigger. I could see a team or two with enough cap, who also aren't bad enough for their first to be a higher end lottery pick, to go into that offer sheet range that costs a 1st and 3rd (IIRC that's 4.2-6.2 AAV range). Say 4 years, $5.5M, which takes Lafreniere right to UFA. A 1OA should return more than that in a trade.

[josh]

14 hours ago, Pete said:

Nah there was nothing to misinterpret. You bitched about Zibenejad "only" being able to score on the the PP. 

 

You just don't like the receipts. 

 

That's certainly one POV. Sure. It's certainly one plan. It's not the only plan, not was it a plan that was available because the PP was good. You don't fuck with it just to get rookies ice time, when you're a competitive team. 

 

And yet a guy like Adam Fox played himself onto the PP by playing well and creating offense when opportunities weren't carved out for him.

 

Look of the 4 kids (Laf, Kakko, Chytil, Krav) no one has been put into more offensive opportunities and done less with it than Lafreniere. 

Like 5 years ago when he had 11 ES assists? lol

That’s not bitching about PP points 

 

 

[Pete]

 

38 minutes ago, josh said:

Like 5 years ago when he had 11 ES assists? lol

That’s not bitching about PP points 

 

 

Sure it is. Anyway, the core point you're ignoring because it doesn't fit the narrative is that the PP is one reason, but no the only reason, Lafreniere is where he is.

 

Again...a guy like Adam Fox played himself onto the PP by playing well and creating offense when opportunities weren't carved out for him.

 

Look of the 4 kids (Laf, Kakko, Chytil, Krav) no one has been put into more offensive opportunities and done less with it than Lafreniere. 

[Pete]

4 hours ago, rmc51 said:

 

I only left it out because I've said it enough in other posts. I'm looking from a "pro-Lafreniere" side of things here.

 

 

Repeating the last bit in my post:

 

 

 

 

The first year without training camp, during Covid, which started mid January and was a shortened season? Disclaimer: this is the only year I accept Covid as a valid excuse.

 

 

Lafreniere might not even disagree with that. It still stunts his ability to produce and make money like he would on many other teams.

 

 

Lack of clear opportunity and direction can contribute to complacency. Again, he's not going to get PP1 time, and he's not getting top 6 time at his natural LW position. His way to the top 6 is by playing an uncomfortable-to-him position. We just went through an exercise where a wily vet in Kreider supposedly can't even switch sides. Apparently it's ok to have expectations about a much younger player being able to seamlessly switch?

 

 

Don't agree. Team situation is the first link in the chain. Clear lack of direction is next. The guy gets moved around and flipped between positions constantly. He's third, and deserves a lot of blame for failure to put his head down and be in top notch condition.

 

 

All the league did was learn not to act out of spite like the Canes did there. They didn't like Aho being offer sheeted, so they acted on Kotkaniemi out of spite. Kotkaniemi had nobody blocking his path in Montreal. He just wasn't good enough. It was not a well-calculated risk by the Canes. The league also learned if you go for an offer sheet, don't short change it like the Canadiens did on Aho (that was an easy match for the Canes). Go bigger. I could see a team or two with enough cap, who also aren't bad enough for their first to be a higher end lottery pick, to go into that offer sheet range that costs a 1st and 3rd (IIRC that's 4.2-6.2 AAV range). Say 4 years, $5.5M, which takes Lafreniere right to UFA. A 1OA should return more than that in a trade.

Not when the 1OA sucks.

 

That said, Lafreniere has to earn the right to "be all about himself", and he hasn't. In fact, based solely on play, he'd be scratched a lot more were he not a 1OA. So all off these "reasons" for Lafreniere to be mad at the org are #1 mostly fiction and not the way the NHL works and #2 just a blame game where he takes no accountability.

 

So, no, he has no "right" to feel like he should be "given more" based on where he was drafted. Because your whole POV is based on him thinking he should get certain things because he's a 1OA, and that's just a trash attitude.

[BrooksBurner]

5 minutes ago, Pete said:

Not when the 1OA sucks.

 

That said, Lafreniere has to earn the right to "be all about himself", and he hasn't. In fact, based solely on play, he'd be scratched a lot more were he not a 1OA. So all off these "reasons" for Lafreniere to be mad at the org are #1 mostly fiction and not the way the NHL works and #2 just a blame game where he takes no accountability.

 

So, no, he has no "right" to feel like he should be "given more" based on where he was drafted. Because your whole POV is based on him thinking he should get certain things because he's a 1OA, and that's just a trash attitude.

 

Yeah, well, I just talked to @RangersIn7 and we agreed you're a doo-doo head so your counterpoints are moot.

[Pete]

1 minute ago, rmc51 said:

 

Yeah, well, I just talked to @RangersIn7 and we agreed you're a doo-doo head so your counterpoints are moot.

[The Dude]

9 hours ago, Pete said:

And no one is going to offer sheet him. The league is learning from Carolina's fourth line Center. And if he signs an offer sheet, let him go, because I'm sure one of those draft picks will wind up being a 30 point third line left-wing, which is all he is. And they'll probably bring more effort, be better defensively, penalties, and hey you might even come out of a game noticing that they played which would be a stark difference from what we're seeing from number 13 right now. 

The problem with using the Carolina offer sheet as an example,  us that an offer sheet to Lafrenière wouldn't have to be as big of an overpayment.

 

The Rangers would be screwed if anyone offers 3.5- 4.5, because they probably wouldn't be able to match. Then risk of the compensation is so low, that it is worth it to a bottom barrel team. If a crap team can add a recent 1OA, who really needs a change of scenery, by overpayment by a mill and only have to forfeit a 2nd and 3rd round pick.  Why the he'll not? 

[josh]

4 hours ago, Pete said:

 

Sure it is. Anyway, the core point you're ignoring because it doesn't fit the narrative is that the PP is one reason, but no the only reason, Lafreniere is where he is.

 

Again...a guy like Adam Fox played himself onto the PP by playing well and creating offense when opportunities weren't carved out for him.

 

Look of the 4 kids (Laf, Kakko, Chytil, Krav) no one has been put into more offensive opportunities and done less with it than Lafreniere. 

You even quoted me saying he’s underperforming yesterday.

of course we want more. Why have I been suggesting PP time in hopes to boost his confidence for the last 3 years? Why have I been repeating “put the kids in a place to be successful” for longer than that? It’s obviously to unlock their potential, not because I don’t like Zibanejad scoring on the PP  

 

 

 

 

[josh]

Small things can do a lot for their confidence

 

 

[BrooksBurner]

20 minutes ago, josh said:

Small things can do a lot for their confidence

 

 

 

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"I knew that was bad game," he recalled after Wednesday's practice at the MSG Training Center in Tarrytown. "I think no one played well. In the morning, everyone was thinking, ‘Maybe I’m going to the fourth line,’ or something like that."

 

Quote

Rather than being demoted, he was being moved up to the top line to play with Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad.

"I was so happy," he said.

Lafreniere same day:

 

[The Dude]

53 minutes ago, josh said:

Small things can do a lot for their confidence

 

 

All a part of not being here to develop players.  Gallant drives me nuts with how short a leash he has with certain young players. 

[Keirik]

Rangers have a tad under 16m of cap space this coming offseason. Any offer sheet 4.2m or under the Rangers absolutely match. Anything over 4.2m is where it changes to a 1st and 2nd for compensation. 

 

[The Dude]

41 minutes ago, Keirik said:

Rangers have a tad under 16m of cap space this coming offseason. Any offer sheet 4.2m or under the Rangers absolutely match. Anything over 4.2m is where it changes to a 1st and 2nd for compensation. 

 

Didn't I say Lafrenière could potentially ask for 4 mill and everyone subsequently shit all over me? But now they can and would match an offer sheet?

 

With Miller and Chytil likely to get around 4 each and the need for a TOP 6 RW, a better back up goalie, then other players due raises the following season,  do the Rangers want to bridge Lafrenière at 4 mill? 

 

 

[Keirik]

2 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Didn't I say Lafrenière could potentially ask for 4 mill and everyone subsequently shit all over me? But now they can and would match an offer sheet?

 

With Miller and Chytil likely to get around 4 each and the need for a TOP 6 RW, a better back up goalie, then other players due raises the following season,  do the Rangers want to bridge Lafrenière at 4 mill? 

 

 

How do you extrapolate that much out of a simple comment? Im not understanding what your question is. I don’t think anyone is giving him an offer sheet. That doesn’t mean we can’t discuss the hypothetical since 3/4 of this entire conversation is based around hypothetical and assumptions. If doesn’t mean when. 

[siddious]

Wrong thread.

 

in before I’m called an idiot

Edited January 6, 2023 by siddious

[The Dude]

1 minute ago, Keirik said:

How do you extrapolate that much out of a simple comment? Im not understanding what your question is. I don’t think anyone is giving him an offer sheet. That doesn’t mean we can’t discuss the hypothetical since 3/4 of this entire conversation is based around hypothetical and assumptions. If doesn’t mean when. 

And? I'm going off of what you said the team would do if this happened. If it happened,  you're saying the Rangers could/should match it. 

 

But when I brought up that Lafreniere could command such money, you (or others) said he couldn't or the Rangers should walk away if he did. 

 

How don't you understand twhat question is?

 

The question is,  if Lafrenière gets such an offersheet, should the Rangers match it, with other contracts and team needs looming? Such an offersheet would probably be a 2 year offer. Pretty much a bridge. Not sure what you're not understanding. 

[Keirik]

31 minutes ago, The Dude said:

And? I'm going off of what you said the team would do if this happened. If it happened,  you're saying the Rangers could/should match it. 

 

But when I brought up that Lafreniere could command such money, you (or others) said he couldn't or the Rangers should walk away if he did. 

 

How don't you understand twhat question is?

 

The question is,  if Lafrenière gets such an offersheet, should the Rangers match it, with other contracts and team needs looming? Such an offersheet would probably be a 2 year offer. Pretty much a bridge. Not sure what you're not understanding. 

I never said the Rangers should walk away. I said, iirc, that an offer sheet will not happen. I then, and previously, said that without an offer sheet, laf has no leverage and two options. Accept a bridge, or play in Europe and revisit this next year where he is still property of the NYR and remains an RFA with no arb rights and even further away from interest from other teams.
 

 However, it’s a message board so for conversations sake, I entertain a scenario. That doesn’t mean you need to try and nail every word I say and twist it into words I didn’t say and extrapolate an entire conclusion. If a team in the league forces the Rangers hands and offer sheets him, I do think the Rangers match as long as it’s under the threshold of a 1st round pick at 4.21m. If it’s over? Depends what team it is, how much it is, etc. I don’t think it’s happening regardless.

 

The rest of the guys that are due contracts are separate issues. I personally think Chytil either is traded if they chase a cup this season for a top 6 or goes in the offseason since it’s unlikely they can afford everyone. They aren’t upgrading a top 6 guy with any significant contract this offseason. They likely role with Kakko and Kravtsov who has arb rights but not much production to command really anything. Backup goalie is going to be under 2m. Blais goes bye bye. Gauthier goes bye bye. Othmann on ELC,  Cuylle ELC, Trvingo ELC, etc. Plenty of guys on ELC that fill out a roster. 
 The only real tricky one is Miller but again, rfa with no arb rights and an even less chance of an offer sheet. 

[josh]

The anger in this thread makes me understand the need for gun control. 

[Keirik]

27 minutes ago, josh said:

The anger in this thread makes me understand the need for gun control. 

Lol

[Keirik]

@Pete send baby clothes and some edibles please. K thx.