Trading Panarin?

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

Everyone knows there's only 5 players that get PP time on this team, so the only way to evaluate production is to take the EV numbers of all players.

 

EV points for New York Rangers after 15 games:

Adam Fox - 11 (4g, 7a)

Artemi Panarin - 9 (4g, 5a)

Chris Kreider - 7 (3g, 4a)

Alexis Lafreniere - 7 (2g, 5a)

Mika Zibanejad - 7 (2g, 5a)

Kaapo Kakko - 6 (3g, 3a)

Filip Chytil - 6 (3g, 3a) *Only 9 games

Barclay Goodrow - 6 (3g, 3a)

Vinny Trocheck - 6 (2g, 4a)

 

If you take the P/60 I'm sure it's even more in favor of "the kids".

[Pete]

24 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

Everyone knows there's only 5 players that get PP time on this team, so the only way to evaluate production is to take the EV numbers of all players.

 

EV points for New York Rangers after 15 games:

Adam Fox - 11 (4g, 7a)

Artemi Panarin - 9 (4g, 5a)

Chris Kreider - 7 (3g, 4a)

Alexis Lafreniere - 7 (2g, 5a)

Mika Zibanejad - 7 (2g, 5a)

Kaapo Kakko - 6 (3g, 3a)

Filip Chytil - 6 (3g, 3a) *Only 9 games

Barclay Goodrow - 6 (3g, 3a)

Vinny Trocheck - 6 (2g, 4a)

 

If you take the P/60 I'm sure it's even more in favor of "the kids".

Nope. ES p/60 leaders among regulars are Fox and Panarin.

 

Hunt, Chytil, Gauthier are up there, but the sample size is too small. 

 

https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/teams/new-york-rangers-players-2022-23-nhl-stats.html

 

Now, if Lafreniere and Kakko get their box car stats to match the fancy ones, there's be an argument there because they are solid at ES, they're just not scoring enough (hence the issue of NYR HDSC being high, but conversion rate being low).

 

But if they were scoring, we also wouldn't have the issue of lack of depth scoring.

 

At any rate, Panarin's contract isn't an issue. The argument being made here, literally, is "we don't have cap flexibility to address other problems (aka other players not producing) because our 100pt fairly paid player takes up too much cap".

Edited November 11, 2022 by Pete

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

18 minutes ago, Pete said:

At any rate, Panarin's contract isn't an issue. The argument being made here l, literally, is "we don't have cap flexibility to address other problems (aka other players not producing) because our 100pt fairly paid player takes up too much cap".

I agree it's not an issue, but you will always have someone claiming it when one player takes up so much of the cap.

 

I'm just saying, I don't think "the kids" as secondary scoring is the issue either. They've all produced fine for the ice time they've been given (and the money they're making). If they can all stay healthy now and we can keep rolling the kid line as the 3rd line we should be good. The main issue is having Vesey and Kravtsov in the top 6, while the 4th line is not good enough (although I did like the 4th line yesterday, could be something to build upon).

Edited November 11, 2022 by Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc

[Albatrosss]

Fox and Panarin alone take up 25% of the cap. Think about it. Just 2 players out of 23 take up 1/4 of the team’s cap. 

[BrooksBurner]

11 minutes ago, CCCP said:

Fox and Panarin alone take up 25% of the cap. Think about it. Just 2 players out of 23 take up 1/4 of the team’s cap. 

So far they have accounted for 37 out of the team’s 132 points, or 28% of the team’s production. Last year, 170 out of 681 for 25%. They take up a good amount of cap but are legitimately producing relative to their pay. They aren’t underperforming. If you take them away, you’re spending the same money just trying to replace the production, let alone outproduce the production, and that’s no guarantee.

[Albatrosss]

1 minute ago, rmc51 said:

So far they have accounted for 37 out of the team’s 132 points, or 28% of the team’s production. Last year, 170 out of 681 for 25%. They take up a good amount of cap but are legitimately producing relative to their pay. They aren’t underperforming. If you take them away, you’re spending the same money just trying to replace the production, let alone outproduce the production, and that’s no guarantee.

The point is not their production but their cap hit and the team’s inability to build anything worthwhile around them, like decent bottom 6 and defense 

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

5 minutes ago, CCCP said:

The point is not their production but their cap hit and the team’s inability to build anything worthwhile around them, like decent bottom 6 and defense 

That's how it is in a cap world. You still have to pay your stars, and if they're not underperforming based on their pay (they ain't) it's not a problem.

 

If anything the problem is paying Reaves 1.75m to be the 13th forward and that the cap hasn't increased in years.

 

Trouba at 8m is the only player on the roster that's unarguably overpaid, probably by 1.5-3m.

[cupalife]

14 minutes ago, CCCP said:

Fox and Panarin alone take up 25% of the cap. Think about it. Just 2 players out of 23 take up 1/4 of the team’s cap. 

Stop it.  You would think it's fairly obvious that with that they would garner discussion when the team struggles or succeeds.  

 

Top 20 in scoring: pts/pp pts  +/-  % of points scored on pp

MacDavid 31 pts/15pp points +3 48% of pts on pp

Draisaitl 27/14 +2  51%

Pasta 22/8 +6 36%

Karlsson 21/6 +3 28%

Kucherov 21/8 +6 38%

Panarin 21/12 -8 57%

MacKinnon 21/6 +9 28%

Rantannon 19/10 +4 52%

Robertson 19/8 +13 42%

Eichel 19/5 +2 26%

Thompson 18/8 -2 44%

Zib 18/10 E 55%

Petterson 18/6 +4 33%

Bratt 18/6 +9 33%

Svech 17/7 +1 41%

Suzuki 17/5 +6 29%

Dahlin 17/8 +7 47%

Aho 17/5 +1 29%

Hintz 17/5 +9 29

 

Notice only 2 players are minus players in the top 20.  Only 4 score more than 50% of their points on the power play 2 are Rangers, one is MaDavid who is scoring 2 points a game.

[cupalife]

21 minutes ago, CCCP said:

The point is not their production but their cap hit and the team’s inability to build anything worthwhile around them, like decent bottom 6 and defense 

Winner

[cupalife]

12 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

That's how it is in a cap world. You still have to pay your stars, and if they're not underperforming based on their pay (they ain't) it's not a problem.

 

If anything the problem is paying Reaves 1.75m to be the 13th forward and that the cap hasn't increased in years.

 

Trouba at 8m is the only player on the roster that's unarguably overpaid, probably by 1.5-3m.

Panarin was a UFA.  They chose to build around a one dimensional 100 foot wing. Fox shouldn't be part of this discussion.   

[cupalife]

Oh and just so we are all clear he leads the team with the worse +/- on the team and it's not close.  Reeves and Carpenter are -5, he's -8

[cupalife]

He's the leading scorer to be -8 he must be on the ice for a shit load of goals against

[cupalife]

He ranks 663/688 in the league in +/- rating. Must be unlucky

[BrooksBurner]

43 minutes ago, CCCP said:

The point is not their production but their cap hit and the team’s inability to build anything worthwhile around them, like decent bottom 6 and defense 

If production is commensurate with the cap hit I just don’t see it as an issue. The issue isn’t that the leftover cap itself is causing the inability of the team to build around it. It’s that the leftover $62.5M has been somewhat ill-spent by management. And really there’s no egregious contracts on the books except for one, the Captain, but it’s big enough to be crippling.

Edited November 11, 2022 by rmc51

[cupalife]

2 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

If production is commensurate with the cap hit I just don’t see it as an issue. The issue isn’t that the cap itself is causing the inability of the team to build around it. It’s that the leftover $62.5M has been somewhat ill-spent by management. And really there’s no egregious contracts on the books except for one, the Captain, but it’s big enough to be crippling.

 

Points is not the only way to commensurate a cap hit, that's video game shit.  There are two nets on the ice.  The team has no cap space and is not good.  Something is wrong

[Keirik]

26 minutes ago, cupalife said:

Oh and just so we are all clear he leads the team with the worse +/- on the team and it's not close.  Reeves and Carpenter are -5, he's -8

I’m not sure why you are bringing up +/- when bread is +71 combined over the previous 3 seasons. It’s a terrible stat and it’ll come around to be more where he is normal . He’s never been a - in his entire career. It’s 15 games into the year. He’s a career +144 going into the year. It’s a non issue. 

[Pete]

46 minutes ago, Keirik said:

I’m not sure why you are bringing up +/- when bread is +71 combined over the previous 3 seasons. It’s a terrible stat and it’ll come around to be more where he is normal . He’s never been a - in his entire career. It’s 15 games into the year. He’s a career +144 going into the year. It’s a non issue. 

Winner. Add into that, we already covered that ground with his Corsi for and PDO explaining it. 

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, cupalife said:

He's the leading scorer to be -8 he must be on the ice for a shit load of goals against

That tends to happen when the team as a whole isn’t pulling their weight defensively. +/- is more reflective of overall team performance and a poor indicator for individual performance. And even if we did entertain it as a good indicator, he’s been top 3-4 in +/- on the team every season since he’s been here. A 15 game sample size of +/- doesn’t mean much of anything.

 

59 minutes ago, cupalife said:

 

Points is not the only way to commensurate a cap hit, that's video game shit.  There are two nets on the ice.  The team has no cap space and is not good.  Something is wrong

Of course it’s not. It’s just the easiest one to reference. I wouldn’t call it video game shit and then do write ups on +/- though. As with most of the rest of the team, the underlying stats suggest Panarin has been good at even strength.

Edited November 11, 2022 by rmc51

[cupalife]

Except we are talking about this year and this team, not the team from last year or 3 years ago.  People are looking for reasons as to why this team looks like a non playoff team.  They blame Reeves or Carpenter or the bottom 6 as a whole or even better 20 year old kids on elc's.  The problem is team wide that is 100% correct.  I just tend tend to look at the leaders of the team in that situation.  The guys being paid to be difference makers.  Up to this point it's been a team wide failure and they are leading the way.  Panarin isn't the only one, it just happens this thread is about him. 

[cupalife]

+/- may very well be a useless stat.  When I watch a game and notice that they are not scoring 5 on 5 but also notice like on the 2nd Detroit goal last night that Panarin wasn't even in the picture on that goal.  He didn't even bother to skate back to the defensive zone.  It wasn't a transition goal either.  It was a player left alone in the slot.  I don't know but usually a guy in the high slot is checked by the off wing.  Well one of the wings was in the neutral zone waiting for his teammates to defend.  That is not a one off either.  

[BrooksBurner]

18 minutes ago, cupalife said:

+/- may very well be a useless stat.  When I watch a game and notice that they are not scoring 5 on 5 but also notice like on the 2nd Detroit goal last night that Panarin wasn't even in the picture on that goal.  He didn't even bother to skate back to the defensive zone.  It wasn't a transition goal either.  It was a player left alone in the slot.  I don't know but usually a guy in the high slot is checked by the off wing.  Well one of the wings was in the neutral zone waiting for his teammates to defend.  That is not a one off either.  

 

I missed that goal last night, but just watched the highlight of it now. Let's talk about that play.

 

The puck was initially dumped in and slowed down by Shesterkin, who let it go to the corner for Miller to play. Miller made a weak attempt to move the puck up the boards when he wasn't under much pressure, and turned the puck over. Trocheck was very lazily gliding from behind by a few strides as the Wings player corralled the puck and moved back down the boards with time and space. Now let's pause here for a second and see positionally what's going on.

 

 

 

Kravtsov isn't standing still, but moving from the slot to the puck carrier as he had to abandon the slot to challenge the puck carrier because 1) Miller is pinned to the boards in the corner, and 2) Trocheck was gliding back and not going to contest. If Kravtsov puts on the brakes to shadow the player cutting to the slot, there's a clear path to the net for the puck carrier. Kravtsov had to take that lane away, and was likely expecting some help behind him. Trouba, by the way, is gliding in the corner like he's warming up before a period starts. Now fast forward a few frames:

 

 

The pass went to the mid-range slot, and you can see the puck right next to the dot. The conversation should really be about what Trouba's thought process was on this play, who didn't move his feet a lick until the "oh shit, there goes the pass to the slot to an open man" alarm went off in his head too late.

 

Now from Panarin's vantage point, he's up the boards near the blue line behind Trocheck. He comes into screen just after the shot goes off. Two Red Wings defenders are also off the screen. Now I'm just guessing, but I'm thinking he sees numbers down low, believes everything to be under control, and is shadowing the defenders up top while simultaneously looking for a potential play of the puck up the boards. I don't find this to be egregious positioning, and I have no issues with him expecting some competence from his teammates.

 

My order of blame on this play:

 

1) Trouba

2) Trocheck

3) Miller

4) Kravtsov (possibly too aggressive on the puck carrier, ideally he takes a better angle instead of over-committing to the carrier)

5) Panarin - gets the -1 because he happens to be on the ice for the shit show by Trouba/Trocheck/Miller.

 

All this does is show why +/- is not a good indicator of individual measure of play. 3 guys deserved a minus. 2 guys didn't.

 

[cupalife]

So the player who never bothers to come back to his own zone at all is at no fault.  Got it.  It's called cherry picking, hanging, or whatever else.  All of which are not compliments.  Many times they are used to describe players who desire points and personal glory above all else.   You find that goal as a good example of Pnarin playing a 200 foot game?  Ok.  Hard to play 200 feet when you won't enter your own 75.  The Rangers are basically playing shorthanded in their own end when he's on the ice in this scenario.  Oh and the game was tied at that point in the game too.  

 

Again this is a player who you pay $11.5M a year but you absolve him of all responsibility and pass it off to all his teammates.  You actually found fault with every player but him.  Ridiculous 

[cupalife]

And the bigger point here is that Panarin doesn't need to cherry pick to create chances.  It's just plain lazy.  Tie game, team on a losing streak, and a team leader doesn't bother to even try and defend.  

 

And if all those guys are all shit shows then fine, let's say that.  They all play regularly with Panarin which would then justify even more reason for him to come back and help because they are all shit shows according to you.  In your assessment here it's basically saying you can't lose if you don't play.  Or another way of saying it is that he does not engage in the game enough to justify building your team around him.  It's a big reason why this team sucks 5 on 5

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, cupalife said:

So the player who never bothers to come back to his own zone at all is at no fault.  Got it.  It's called cherry picking, hanging, or whatever else.  All of which are not compliments.  Many times they are used to describe players who desire points and personal glory above all else.   You find that goal as a good example of Pnarin playing a 200 foot game?  Ok.  Hard to play 200 feet when you won't enter your own 75.  The Rangers are basically playing shorthanded in their own end when he's on the ice in this scenario.  Oh and the game was tied at that point in the game too.  

 

Again this is a player who you pay $11.5M a year but you absolve him of all responsibility and pass it off to all his teammates.  You actually found fault with every player but him.  Ridiculous 

I never said it was an example of Panarin playing a 200 foot game, but it definitely isn’t an example of him being lazy as you have insinuated. I didn’t go looking to find fault in “anyone but Panarin” when I pulled up the goal video. I was honestly taking your word for it that he messed up and I wanted to see how bad it was, as I had missed most of the 2nd period. Turned out I shouldn’t be taking your word for it. This one reeks of confirmation bias.

Edited November 12, 2022 by rmc51

[Keirik]

1 hour ago, cupalife said:

And the bigger point here is that Panarin doesn't need to cherry pick to create chances.  It's just plain lazy.  Tie game, team on a losing streak, and a team leader doesn't bother to even try and defend.  

 

And if all those guys are all shit shows then fine, let's say that.  They all play regularly with Panarin which would then justify even more reason for him to come back and help because they are all shit shows according to you.  In your assessment here it's basically saying you can't lose if you don't play.  Or another way of saying it is that he does not engage in the game enough to justify building your team around him.  It's a big reason why this team sucks 5 on 5

Just a quick tip so there is some less confusion. I think at this point you need to use the quote feature when replying to messages because it’s getting harder to figure out who your messages are in responses to at times. Hope this helps.

 

   

I still think you’re way too focused on +/- when there is no indication that this years smaller sample is anything more than just a small sample size. The other problem is using his cap hit in the argument. He was brought in during the UFA period of his career pre Covid. 11.5m was high at that time but there was absolutely zero reason to think the cap wasn’t going up by millions between then and now. His cap hit was the going rate for his talents at the time. Hell, he left money on the table to be here by many reports.

 

This team wasn’t built around Panarin alone. He was brought in to speed up a rebuild because the opportunity arose. They didn’t trade Kreider. They didn’t trade Zibanejad. They had Shesty in the system.  They had some other pieces. They had draft capital. Panarin just helped push their window open sooner and wider than expected. Him along with others.
 

I would love Panarin to shoot more. I really would. I think there is more value in a 90 point player with 40 goals than one with 70 assists. However, there is still a lot of revisionist history going on and focusing on a small sample size while ignoring the big picture. Since joining the Rangers up until today, Panarin is 3rd in the entire NHL in points behind only McJesus and his sidekick Leon. That’s more than MacKinnon, more than Pasternak, more than Matthews. If we like to use +/- so much, he’s +63 in that time while the two above him are +46 and +41. He’s tied for 12th with the highest +/- in the entire league at that time. You can’t just ignore all of that just because things aren’t going perfect right now. I’m actually surprised Panarin has as many points as he does considering he lost his center of the last three years. 
 

  Lastly, if we are going to talk 5 v 5, I think we need to also get a bit of a complete picture for bread.

19/20 5v5

Panarin

1st on roster in goals

1st in assists

 

20/21 5v5

Panarin

2nd on roster in goals

1st in assists

 

21/22 5v5

Panarin

3rd on roster in goals

1st in assists

22/23 5v5

Panarin

tied 1st on roster with Fox in goals

2nd in assists