Playoffs 2023-24 ECQF: Hurricanes vs. Islanders

[Morphinity 2.0]

(2M) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (3M) New York Islanders

REGULAR SEASON STANDINGS:

Hurricanes: 52-23-7, 111 points

Islanders: 39-27-16, 94 points

SEASON SERIES:

CAR: 2-1-1, NYI: 2-1-1

 

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GAME BREAKERS:

Hurricanes: Jake Guentzel, the marquee acquisition prior the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, was brought in to provide more offensive depth. The price was huge; the Hurricanes gave up forward Michael Bunting, forward prospects Vasily Ponomarev, Ville Koivunen, and Cruz Lucius, a conditional first-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, and a conditional fifth-round pick in the 2024 draft for Guentzel and defenseman Ty Smith. The payoff has been bigger. Guentzel has settled in on the top line and has 25 points (eight goals, 17 assists) in 17 games. Sebastian Aho, his center, has 21 points (11 goals, 10 assists) in the same span.

 

Islanders: Mathew Barzal is the most skilled player on the team and, not surprisingly, he is their leading scorer. The forward has 80 points (23 goals, 57 assists) in 80 games this season, the only point-per-game player on the roster. But it's not just his points, it is the speed at which he plays the game that gives fits to opponents. He can put a defense on its back foot and change a game plan. The Hurricanes will have to account for him each time he is on the ice.

 

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GOALTENDING:

Hurricanes: Carolina has not had a bona fide No. 1 goaltender in recent memory. Frederik Andersen played 52 games in 2021-22, the first Carolina goalie to play more than 50 games since Cam Ward played 61 in 2016-17. Since, they have been a platoon team, which has been a boon in the regular season and a struggle in the postseason. It's more of the same this season with no clear-cut favorite to start. Four goalies started games this season: Pyotr Kochetkov (40 games), Antti Raanta (20), Andersen (16) and Spencer Martin (six), but now it is a 1a-1b situation with Kochetkov and Anderson. Kochetkov went 23-13-4 with a 2.33 goals-against average, .911 save percentage and four shutouts. Anderson, out long-term with a blood-clotting issue, is 9-1-0 with a 1.30 GAA, .951 save percentage and three shutouts since returning on March 4.

 

Islanders: A late-season charge by Semyon Varlamov has unseated Ilya Sorokin as the No. 1 goalie. In his past 10 starts, Varlamov is 8-1-1 with a 2.09 GAA and a .930 save percentage. It's likely that Roy will go with the hot hand in Varlamov over Sorokin, who played in the All-Star Game last season when he was also a finalist for the Vezina Trophy. Varlamov played in 33 postseason games for the Islanders from 2019-21, going 18-14 with a 2.31 GAA and .922 save percentage. Sorokin played every minute against the Hurricanes in the first round last season and went 2-4 with a 2.60 GAA and .920 save percentage.

 

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X FACTORS:

Hurricanes: Andrei Svechnikov did not play in 2023 postseason after having surgery to repair a torn ACL in his right knee but the forward bounced back this regular season; he tied for the second-best points per game average of his NHL career (0.88; 52 points in 59 games) and is an important secondary scorer considering Carolina has been playing Guentzel on the top line with Aho. Svechnikov's goal-scoring upside (30 in 2021-22) makes him a potential difference maker. 

 

Islanders: Noah Dobson had a breakout season with an NHL career-high 70 points (10 goals, 60 assists) in 79 games, seventh in the League among defensemen, but has missed the past three games because of an upper-body injury. Dobson ranks sixth among defensemen in assists this season and second at the position in primary assists (35) behind Roman Josi (38) of the Nashville Predators. Given the Islanders issues on special teams, Dobson's health and level of play at each end of the ice is crucial to their chances of upsetting the Hurricanes.

 

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WILL WIN IF:

Hurricanes: They stick to the game plan. They are superior to the Islanders in almost every facet and have dominated the League for long stretches this season. Their plus-63 goal differential is the second-best in the League behind the Florida Panthers and their 216 goals against is fourth-best. They are deep, they are talented and they are disciplined. They haven't beaten themselves much this regular season and don't want to start in the postseason.

 

Islanders: They figure out how to generate more offense, especially on their power play. New York averages 2.99 goals per game, the second-lowest output of any of the teams that qualified for the postseason behind the Washington Capitals (2.63). The Islanders drew 231 power-play opportunities, the fifth-lowest in the League and scored on 47 (20.4 percent). Among playoff teams, only the Winnipeg Jets (19.1) and Vegas Golden Knights (20.1) had worst conversion rates.

 

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MORE:

https://www.nhl.com/news/carolina-vs-new-york-islanders-2024-playoff-preview

[Ozzy]

I'll give the Isles 2, and that's being generous because they're hot coming into this.

[Abe Froman]

Canes sweep

[Sharpshooter]

I'll be surprised if this goes more than six games. Carolina has this. I'll give the Islanders a game and say Hurricanes in five.

[SaveByRichter35]

I hate to admit it but I feel like the Isles take this in 7.

Edited April 20 by SaveByRichter35

[Ozzy]

4 hours ago, SaveByRichter35 said:

I hate to admit it but I feel like the Isles take this is 7.

 

Isles beat them, and I'm buying wings for you!

[siddious]

I’m rooting for bruises and Minor injuries in 7.

[RangersIn7]

15 hours ago, SaveByRichter35 said:

I hate to admit it but I feel like the Isles take this in 7.

I think this series is dangerous for Carolina.

 

That, and they seem to be everyone’s favorite this year… that doesn’t always bode so well.

 

Isles could seriously give them a run for their money. 

[Karan]

Hurricanes in 6. It should be over in 5, but Islanders seem to have this pesky ability to grind out close games and Varlamov/Sorokin are fully capable of stealing a couple.

[Sod16]

I am genetically predisposed against ever rooting for the Islanders under any circumstances.  The only times I can recall rooting for them were when they upset our then arch rival Bruins 9-7 in Boston in their first season and in 1975 when they played the Soviet Wings.  Now, I suppose I have to root for them to win three games.

 

NHL Network's oddsmakers gave the Caps a better chance against the Rangers (30%) than the Islanders against the Canes (24%).  That's nonsense.  My gut tells me that Carolina is a bit jinxed by all the love they are getting from the pundits and oddsmakers.

[phillyb]

Playoffs!!!!! 

[phillyb]

Here’s to a good game. I hope both teams lose. 

[phillyb]

COCAINE

[Dem]

23 minutes ago, phillyb said:

Here’s to a good game. I hope both teams lose. 

I'm ok with one winning as long as they beat the shit out of each other, shake both teams goaltenders confidence n go triple ot every game

Edited April 20 by Dem

[Br4d]

First time in my life I'm rooting for the Isles to win a playoff series.  Makes me feel all slimy.

[Abe Froman]

Let's Go Canes. I'll never root for the Islanders.

[Br4d]

Just now, Abe Froman said:

Let's Go Canes. I'll never root for the Islanders.

 

'Canes are due.  I'd rather the Isles knocked them off so we can stomp them in round 2.

[Abe Froman]

Just now, Br4d said:

 

'Canes are due.  I'd rather the Isles knocked them off so we can stomp them in round 2.

Your logic is undeniable. But I just can't do it. 

[Dem]

Looking at the "Will Win If" for the Islanders they failed on that power play generating offense in the 1st. 

[Dem]

Isles PP looked really weak

[Abe Froman]

Is there a Jennifer Botterill filter available? 

 

Just kidding.

 

But not really.

[Abe Froman]

Nice acting job

[Dem]

12 minutes ago, Abe Froman said:

Nice acting job

Didn't see this till now but I know your talking the leg tap to the back of the leg/knee. Oscar winner

[Abe Froman]

16 minutes ago, Dem said:

Didn't see this till now but I know your talking the leg tap to the back of the leg/knee. Oscar winner

I missed that one Dem. The one I was talking about was the high sticking penalty. He kept putting his hand to his mouth trying to convince the ref that he was bleeding. 

[The Dude]

With Sorokin taking a back seat for this run, I wonder if there will be any ill will over the summer.