Brooks Alexis Lafreniere's Finishing Touch Has Evaporated in Growing Rangers Problem

[Pete]

3 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

For the first time in his career, he is doing things that actually lead to goals. He's one of the unluckiest players in the league this year; he's something like 8 goals below what he should have created. I'll take that over the last few years where it looked like he was just happy to be here, because that WILL regress. Good habits score goals.

His 95.5 PDO agrees that he's been unlucky. 

[Br4d]

2 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

For the first time in his career, he is doing things that actually lead to goals. He's one of the unluckiest players in the league this year; he's something like 8 goals below what he should have created. I'll take that over the last few years where it looked like he was just happy to be here, because that WILL regress. Good habits score goals.

 

His confidence is way down.  You can see it when he misses a shot.  Little to no reaction earlier in the year and a big slump of the shoulders now.

[LindG1000]

2 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

His confidence is way down.  You can see it when he misses a shot.  Little to no reaction earlier in the year and a big slump of the shoulders now.

 

Good. That's called being competitive and wanting to succeed. I'd rather him get angry and frustrated when he's not succeeding than going back to the bench and turning his helmet strap into a mustache again.

[BrooksBurner]

7 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

Good. That's called being competitive and wanting to succeed. I'd rather him get angry and frustrated when he's not succeeding than going back to the bench and turning his helmet strap into a mustache again.

@jsrangers doesn’t need more avatar content

[RJWantsTheCup]

Is it unlucky or not as skilled or combination of both?

[Pete]

13 minutes ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

Is it unlucky or not as skilled or combination of both?

I'm going to go with unlucky. Let's not forget, he was a number one pick overall. He is at the very least capable of hitting open nets.

 

He squeezing the stick too tight right now. 

[Art20c]

Seems he is the worst first overall pick since yakupov. 

[Valriera]

In general, it is harder in the NHL to put yourself in a position to have this discussion made about you, than it is to actually finish the chances. It's why Julien Gauthier was so infuriating.

 

I don't see that same player here, I think he's probably a little too tight and also probably didn't work on this much in the offseason. He's worked on getting himself to the position to do this. Next natural step is to work on finishing. It will come 

[jsm7302]

39 minutes ago, Art20c said:

Seems he is the worst first overall pick since yakupov. 

Seems that way but we have time and progress on our side to hope for better.

[Br4d]

1 hour ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

Is it unlucky or not as skilled or combination of both?

 

Both but primarily unlucky.  He's scored on 3 of his last 86 shots.  If he was terrible and unable to play in the NHL he would have scored on 5 of those...

[RJWantsTheCup]

19 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

Both but primarily unlucky.  He's scored on 3 of his last 86 shots.  If he was terrible and unable to play in the NHL he would have scored on 5 of those...

He isn’t terrible and unable to play in the NHL.  He just isn’t all that either.   

[LindG1000]

I think we gotta cool it with some of this "worst since Yakupov" talk. 

 

He's doing the right things. He's getting to the right places. He's making the right decisions. His attitude is far, far better. He's been very, very unlucky. And he feels it because he wants to win and he thinks he should have 20 goals already. He sees this bad luck as part of the reason why his team is a .500 team in the second quarter of the season.

 

He's right, too. At neutral luck, he'd have 19.  With even a smidgen of good luck, we'd be talking about whether he could hit 40 this year.

 

If we get this Alexis Lafreniere consistently - the Lafreniere who wants to work, who wants to win, who wants to score, who looks like the guy his scouting reports described in 2020? He'll be a guy to build around sooner rather than later. He's not going to be Steven Stamkos or John Tavares, but a "neutral luck" 2023-24 Lafreniere is a first-line wing. 

[Br4d]

51 minutes ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

He isn’t terrible and unable to play in the NHL.  He just isn’t all that either.   

 

That was part of the point.  You don't score on 3 out of 86 shots unless you are getting wicked unlucky.

[Br4d]

32 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

I think we gotta cool it with some of this "worst since Yakupov" talk. 

 

He's doing the right things. He's getting to the right places. He's making the right decisions. His attitude is far, far better. He's been very, very unlucky. And he feels it because he wants to win and he thinks he should have 20 goals already. He sees this bad luck as part of the reason why his team is a .500 team in the second quarter of the season.

 

He's right, too. At neutral luck, he'd have 19.  With even a smidgen of good luck, we'd be talking about whether he could hit 40 this year.

 

If we get this Alexis Lafreniere consistently - the Lafreniere who wants to work, who wants to win, who wants to score, who looks like the guy his scouting reports described in 2020? He'll be a guy to build around sooner rather than later. He's not going to be Steven Stamkos or John Tavares, but a "neutral luck" 2023-24 Lafreniere is a first-line wing. 

 

The Rangers are bad at even strength right now because they only had one line scoring at even strength and that line has largely been shut down but is still giving up the goals it was giving up at even strength.

[Art20c]

52 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

I think we gotta cool it with some of this "worst since Yakupov" talk. 

Hope dies last. Of course I get it. But all this luck unluck could’ve would’ve talk is actually unfounded. Look at hard facts. If we look at performance stats of all 1st overall forwards as far as joe Thornton who started very slow but at least had some size on his side, we won’t find too many guys whose stats were worse than laf’s. And these are facts. The rest is just wishful thinking. Does he belong to nhl? No doubt he does. I would be the happiest guy on earth if we drafted him at mid-bottom of first round. But as 1st overall with "generational talent" label who was compared to McKinnon? I remember reading that he might not be McDavid or Crosby caliber but definitely in vicinity of aforementioned McKinnon and Matthews and such. Is he though?

[LindG1000]

9 minutes ago, Art20c said:

Hope dies last. Of course I get it. But all this luck unluck could’ve would’ve talk is actually unfounded. Look at hard facts. If we look at performance stats of all 1st overall forwards as far as joe Thornton who started very slow but at least had some size on his side, we won’t find too many guys whose stats were worse than laf’s. And these are facts. The rest is just wishful thinking. Does he belong to nhl? No doubt he does. I would be the happiest guy on earth if we drafted him at mid-bottom of first round. But as 1st overall with "generational talent" label who was compared to McKinnon? I remember reading that he might not be McDavid or Crosby caliber but definitely in vicinity of aforementioned McKinnon and Matthews and such. Is he though?

 

But it's not. We can measure these things. We have stats like xGF, PDO - ways to quantify the randomness of hockey.  Firms are making millions of dollars and entire careers over being able to put sanity behind the randomness of the sport. There are literally just two players in the NHL with worse scoring luck than Alexis Lafreniere right now - Alex Ovechkin and John Tavares. 

 

And to be clear, Lafreniere was never profiled as "generational". He was always a rank or two below the Crosbys and the Mackinnons and the Matthews of the world. He was profiled as an elite player. He has not been that as of yet, but this season has been the first time we can see why that was the case. Maybe I'd ask this differently - based on this season, do you see a path to Alexis Lafreniere being a first-line wing and a guy who has a few seasons where he's around a point a game? Because I sure as hell do.

[Pete]

2 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

But it's not. We can measure these things. We have stats like xGF, PDO - ways to quantify the randomness of hockey.  Firms are making millions of dollars and entire careers over being able to put sanity behind the randomness of the sport. There are literally just two players in the NHL with worse scoring luck than Alexis Lafreniere right now - Alex Ovechkin and John Tavares. 

 

And to be clear, Lafreniere was never profiled as "generational". He was always a rank or two below the Crosbys and the Mackinnons and the Matthews of the world. He was profiled as an elite player. He has not been that as of yet, but this season has been the first time we can see why that was the case. Maybe I'd ask this differently - based on this season, do you see a path to Alexis Lafreniere being a first-line wing and a guy who has a few seasons where he's around a point a game? Because I sure as hell do.

[LindG1000]

Just now, Pete said:

Eh, peak years at somewhere around 70-75 points feels around the right ceiling for him, no? 

 

I don't see him putting up 90+ or something like that. 

[Pete]

Just now, LindG1000 said:

Eh, peak years at somewhere around 70-75 points feels around the right ceiling for him, no? 

 

I don't see him putting up 90+ or something like that. 

I need to see him do someanything significant without Panarin.

[LindG1000]

Just now, Pete said:

I need to see him do someanything significant without Panarin.

That's fair enough. 

[The Dude]

I'd like to see a new experiment with the lines. Since 20/93 won't be separated, and they aren't bleeding minuses... how about they put Lafrenière with them? 

 

Lets see if he's really a defensive wart. He's not producing lately,  so the void can be filled with a guy that could maybe benefit from playing with Panarin.  Wheeler.  If not Wheeler,  Kakko. 

 

Maybe Panarin can jump-start these wingers a little.  Maybe Kakko alleviates that lines defensive woes, that aren't really very noticeable. He'd have to adjust his game,  but I feel like that's in the works anyway. 

 

I understand we don't want to ruin Lafrenières confidence by moving him off the line that has him in good graces.  But it's not like it's a demotion to the 3rd line. You're putting him with what are supposed to be the teams other top forwards. 

 

The 2 player RW shuffle for 20/93 has been done over and over for years. You have a guy you can say (at the moment) is a legit option to pair with 20/93. 

 

 

[Art20c]

23 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

There are literally just two players in the NHL with worse scoring luck than Alexis Lafreniere right now - Alex Ovechkin and John Tavares. 

These two are like 80 years old. When they were same age as laf were they the same/worse?  Esp the first one? We can throw Jagr of nowadays into the mix as well. Look, im not trying to force my opinion on anybody, but in my eyes we just got the wrong side of the stick with this draft pick. I perfectly understand there were no gm in the world who wouldn’t draft him. 
i couldn’t have found where I’ve read that comparison statement but I found his scouting report. Heres just a little taste of it:

-a gifted and versatile scoring winger with outstanding hockey sense and the ability to elevate his game when the situation calls for it, Lafreniere possesses many traits that scream elite and potential NHL superstar. From his deadly wrist shot to his superior playmaking and vision, the St. Eustache native checks every block imaginable when it comes to possessing the puck. What makes Lafreniere unique, however, is his insanely high compete level, tenacity on the puck, physicality, and selflessness. Play him on a line with equally heralded or accomplished prospects, and he’ll make it a point to tap into their strengths rather than make himself the center of attention.-

[Scott]

3 hours ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

Is it unlucky or not as skilled or combination of both?

Combo at this point.

[BrooksBurner]

Lafreniere has scored in 11 games this season. The Rangers are 11-0 in those games.

[siddious]

Just now, BrooksBurner said:

Lafreniere has scored in 11 games this season. The Rangers are 11-0 in those games.

Do this same stat with kakko now

 

4-0 with goals after the teams up 9-0 or something 

 

stats are confusing out of context