GDT 2021-22 NHL Trade Deadline: All in, Bay Bay!

[-ERIK-]

Rakell and Lindholm scratched ?

That accurate

[NEKRanger]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

 

It feels like we do this every year, and every year I have to type some variation of the same response. I'm not trying to drag you here, specifically, but I feel like fans in general dramatically overrate the value of a "first-round pick," by conveniently forgetting that they're not actually of equal value.....

 

There was a paper I downloaded that gave the probability of getting a top 6 forward (or top 4 defenseman) from each position in the draft.   The table looked like this (I'm averaging groups of 3 picks cuz I'm a little lazy):

 

Picks #1 to #3 = 84%

Picks #4 to #6 = 53%

Picks #7 to #9 = 41%

Picks #10 to #12 = 40%

Picks #13 to #15 = 34%

Picks #16 to #18 = 22%

Picks #19 to #21 = 27%

Picks #22 to #24 = 28%

Picks #25 to #27 = 19%

Picks #28 to #30 = 16%

 

So I'm thinking with the Rangers first round pick they have a 25 to 30 percent chance of getting a top-six player with it.   

[RJWantsTheCup]

7 minutes ago, br-avery said:

Rakell and Lindholm scratched ?

That accurate

That's because after the game they are getting traded for the entire Wolf Pack.

[Drew a Penalty]

7 minutes ago, br-avery said:

Rakell and Lindholm scratched ?

That accurate

 

Rakell is DTD with an injury. Lindholm is playing.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, NEKRanger said:

 

There was a paper I downloaded that gave the probability of getting a top 6 forward (or top 4 defenseman) from each position in the draft.   The table looked like this (I'm averaging groups of 3 picks cuz I'm a little lazy):

 

Picks #1 to #3 = 84%

Picks #4 to #6 = 53%

Picks #7 to #9 = 41%

Picks #10 to #12 = 40%

Picks #13 to #15 = 34%

Picks #16 to #18 = 22%

Picks #19 to #21 = 27%

Picks #22 to #24 = 28%

Picks #25 to #27 = 19%

Picks #28 to #30 = 16%

 

So I'm thinking with the Rangers first round pick they have a 25 to 30 percent chance of getting a top-six player with it.   

 

Exactly.

 

I'd imagine the odds of getting a top-6/top-4 are almost equal from the end of the first round to the end of the second round.

[-ERIK-]

13 minutes ago, Drew a Penalty said:

 

Rakell is DTD with an injury. Lindholm is playing.

Thought I saw somewhere Lindholm was scratched also, let me look.

[jsm7302]

8 minutes ago, br-avery said:

Thought I saw somewhere Lindholm was scratched also, let me look.

He is playing...but for which team??

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, jsm7302 said:

He is playing...but for which team??

 

[jsm7302]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

Too soon man.....too soon....

[NEKRanger]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Exactly.

 

I'd imagine the odds of getting a top-6/top-4 are almost equal from the end of the first round to the end of the second round.

 

Yeah, they pretty much hover around 10% throughout the second round, go down to 6% by the end of the 3rd round, and then 4% in round 4.

 

The nice thing about the draft is that teams can sign the players cheaply, if they do land a good one.

 

Just for giggles, here are the first round picks for the Rangers since they started trading off starters, and their probabilities of being top 6/4/1.  .  The sum is 3.3, meaning that if the Rangers had drafted like an average team, they would get three starters (top two offensive lines or top two defensive pairs) out of this group.

7	Anderson	0.48
21	Chytil	0.20
9	Kravtsov	0.44
22	Miller	0.20
2	Kakko	0.88
1	Lafreneire	0.84
19	Schneider	0.28
	SUM	3.32

Edited March 15, 2022 by NEKRanger

[Keirik]

Come home Yanni. Barclay will pick you up at the airport. Let's win a cup together. 

[Ozzy]

34 minutes ago, Keirik said:

Come home Yanni. Barclay will pick you up at the airport. Let's win a cup together. 

 

Oh hell yes!!!

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, Keirik said:

Come home Yanni. Barclay will pick you up at the airport. Let's win a cup together. 

 

Long post incoming! Tldr; Kakko for Gourde @ 50% because reasons.

I like Kakko, but I will still float a Kakko for Gourde (@ 50%) deal. It’s a super ballsy move to make, but there are a plethora of reasons why it makes sense. I’ll give 11.

 

1) Allows for proper cap space to still fill 2C (re-sign Strome or other), while improving center depth at the same time.

 

2) Solidifies the center ice position for the next 3 seasons after this.

 

3) Makes us a much better team now and for the forseeable future (next 2-3 years, not talking 5-6 years from now).

 

4) We establish a clear 3 year window with the current core before the current kids start to become the new core.

 

5) There’s a good rapport between Goodrow and Gourde. We just signed Goodrow to 6 years. What better way to maximize the return on that contract than to get his boy Gourde?

 

6) Gets good value out of Kakko when he may actually still bust, or not be nearly as good as initially touted. One more season like the first three here and you may as well kiss his value good bye as far as I’m concerned. We are a contending team now. Getting zero out of him in the next 2-3 years is a legitimate concern and would severely hurt our Cup chances.

 

7) We can’t afford all of our top, young players two or three years from now anyway. Kakko probably lower on the totem pole than the other youngsters at this current time. 

 

“8)” Allows Chytil to be moved to the wing or swapped out for a more proven option at wing (here’s your Lehkonen or Connor Brown money people, if that’s who you want).

 

9) Our other best young forwards in the pipeline are also wings. Othmann, Cuylle.

10) Removes potential outlier scenario of a Kakko offer sheet, where we could lose Kakko for picks over cap space we don’t have in order to match.

 

11) Kakko is just one asset. All of our other high/medium quality assets that we are currently throwing into packages would still be here to make “fill the gap” purchases at future trade deadlines.

 

I’m well aware Kakko can pan out and this post looks like utter garbage. This kind of move could be career-defining for Drury, for better or for worse. I think he’s got the balls to do it though, and I think it could absolutely work.

 

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by rmc51

[Keirik]

3 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

 

Long post incoming! Tldr; Kakko for Gourde @ 50% because reasons.

I like Kakko, but I will still float a Kakko for Gourde (@ 50%) deal. It’s a super ballsy move to make, but there are a plethora of reasons why it makes sense. I’ll give 11.

 

1) Allows for proper cap space to still fill 2C (re-sign Strome or other), while improving center depth at the same time.

 

2) Solidifies the center ice position for the next 3 seasons after this.

 

3) Makes us a much better team now and for the forseeable future (next 2-3 years, not talking 5-6 years from now).

 

4) We establish a clear 3 year window with the current core before the current kids start to become the new core.

 

5) There’s a good rapport between Goodrow and Gourde. We just signed Goodrow to 6 years. What better way to maximize the return on that contract than to get his boy Gourde?

 

6) Gets good value out of Kakko when he may actually still bust, or not be nearly as good as initially touted. One more season like the first three here and you may as well kiss his value good bye as far as I’m concerned. We are a contending team now. Getting zero out of him in the next 2-3 years is a legitimate concern and would severely hurt our Cup chances.

 

7) We can’t afford all of our top, young players two or three years from now anyway. Kakko probably lower on the totem pole than the other youngsters at this current time. 

 

“8)” Allows Chytil to be moved to the wing or swapped out for a more proven option at wing (here’s your Lehkonen or Connor Brown money people, if that’s who you want).

 

9) Our other best young forwards in the pipeline are also wings. Othmann, Cuylle.

10) Removes potential outlier scenario of a Kakko offer sheet, where we could lose Kakko for picks over cap space we don’t have in order to match.

 

11) Kakko is just one asset. All of our other high/medium quality assets that we are currently throwing into packages would still be here to make “fill the gap” purchases at future trade deadlines.

 

I’m well aware Kakko can pan out and this post looks like utter garbage. This kind of move could be career-defining for Drury, for better or for worse. I think he’s got the balls to do it though, and I think it could absolutely work.

 

 

Can probably throw in another couple of reasons,  not specifically Kakko related because I'd rather keep him.

 

Gourde scores at even strength. 

 

Gourde also immediately improves pp2 as well. 

 

I think you could get Gourde for a mix of picks and Chytil which means you are only increasing the salary by gourde - chytil so 5.1-2.3=2.8. Now if u also got rid of Nemeth and his 2.5m along the way....

 

   Retention just is so Gourdes addition keeps us future proof. I'm notnsure Seattle even asks for Kakko so I'd rather trade picks and a prospect. If that offer sheet comes then you regsrld the picks you just lost on the trade anyway and then have even more cap space.  

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, Keirik said:

Can probably throw in another couple of reasons,  not specifically Kakko related because I'd rather keep him.

 

Gourde scores at even strength. 

 

Gourde also immediately improves pp2 as well. 

 

I think you could get Gourde for a mix of picks and Chytil which means you are only increasing the salary by gourde - chytil so 5.1-2.3=2.8. Now if u also got rid of Nemeth and his 2.5m along the way....

 

   Retention just is so Gourdes addition keeps us future proof. I'm notnsure Seattle even asks for Kakko so I'd rather trade picks and a prospect. If that offer sheet comes then you regsrld the picks you just lost on the trade anyway and then have even more cap space.  

If you mean for an unretained Gourde that kind of package might work. But man there is a lot of lost cap flexibility over the next couple of seasons.  Getting rid of Nemeth really only saves like 1.5M because you still need to replace him, say for 1M, on the roster.
 

I dunno. I think I pull the Kakko plug now. I don’t see the mentality or the killer instinct in him to feel like he will be a franchise player. He might be a good secondary player. 50-60 points? Maybe? Or maybe a Buchnevich ceiling? I’m ok losing it to be more serious about a Cup the next few years.

Edited March 15, 2022 by rmc51

[The Dude]

6 hours ago, Cash or Czech said:

 

All but guarantees one of Trouba and Kreider won't be here past next season. Or that we let Strome walk and try to figure out a stopgap at center.

Nylander was drafted as a center and has filled in at center over the years. I'd love to have him here. Toronto would want more in return though and the Rangers would need to clear some cap space as Nylander carries an almost 7 mill cap space. I don't see a match there, unless anyone is willing to send them Lindgren. I'm not. Not for Nylander.  

[Keirik]

32 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

If you mean for an unretained Gourde that kind of package might work. But man there is a lot of lost cap flexibility over the next couple of seasons.  Getting rid of Nemeth really only saves like 1.5M because you still need to replace him, say for 1M, on the roster.
 

I dunno. I think I pull the Kakko plug now. I don’t see the mentality or the killer instinct in him to feel like he will be a franchise player. He might be a good secondary player. 50-60 points? Maybe? Or maybe a Buchnevich ceiling? I’m ok losing it to be more serious about a Cup the next few years.

I have zero problem with a third pairing of Jones and Schneider so I’d just save money and use it elsewhere. We still would need to replace a Chytil roster spot with someone not name McKegg or Polanski 

[josh]

Jones is unreliable. If someone gets a penalty, or gets hurt, he has to play additional minutes and he can’t. 

[Scott]

TDL can't get here fast enough.

Edited March 16, 2022 by jsrangers

[Dunny]

Go big.

 

Chychrun+Crouse for Kakko+Lundqvist/Robinson+1st

 

Probably have to include Nemeth, or some salary, or send salary out, for next year.

[josh]

16 minutes ago, Dunny said:

Go big.

 

Chychrun+Crouse for Kakko+Lundqvist/Robinson+1st

 

Probably have to include Nemeth, or some salary, or send salary out, for next year.

Dude that’s awful for the rangers 

[Dunny]

I don't think so. We get good players, they get projects.

[Keirik]

51 minutes ago, josh said:

Jones is unreliable. If someone gets a penalty, or gets hurt, he has to play additional minutes and he can’t. 

You don’t know that. He’s young. This is how players learn. This idea that we are going to have a perfect roster just isn’t realistic. There just is going to have to be some give and take unless you are literally trading away every chip to 100% go for it this year when we are the third youngest team that doesn’t even know what the playoffs feel like yet.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, josh said:

Dude that’s awful for the rangers 

 

It's not awful. It's just hard to stomach because Kakko was a 2OA.

[josh]

silllllyyyyy

 

Chychrun sucks. 
 

you move Lindgren or Miller in that deal if that’s what you want, not Kakko. 

it’s Drury, I’d imagine he wants a hard player. Which isn’t Chychrun