article: It's OK to be Disappointed with Lias Andersson For Now

[josh]

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819

 

No. 7

Average Rating: 5.57

Best: Jason Arnott, Shane Doan, Ryan Suter, Jakub Voracek

Worst: Ryan Sittler, Alek Stojanov, Lars Jonsson

Ranked 7 or better: 42.9%

Ranked 5 or worse: 38.1%

At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 90.5%

 

10 - Generational

9 - Elite Player

8 - First Line, Top Pair D

7 - Top Six Forward, Top Four D

6 - Top Nine Forward, Top Six D

5 - NHL Regular, 350+ NHL games

4 - Fringe NHLer, 200+ NHL games

3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer, 50-200 NHL games

2 - Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games

1 - 10 or fewer NHL games

[Pete]

I mean, I'm not specifically mentioning him. This is just how it is. To conclude that Lias is a bust or Gorton should be fired, which I don't know if you've said but others have, is not really understanding how drafting or rebuilds work. What if he turns out to be Kadri? I'd say that's still a valuable piece. You can always look back and say "we should have drafted X player instead" but you'll always be disappointed with that point of view.

 

Lias is 19, soon to be 20. I know the new thing is to bring 18 year old straight into the NHL these days, but that doesn't mean it's always right. I have a feeling the next few years are going to be really difficult for some people.

One could argue that Kadri wouldn't be Kadri without Matthews taking those tough matchups. I don't think they envisioned Kadri as a 3C when they drafted him. But here is is (yes due to JT).

 

When draft picks struggle, they're always measured by the peers who were left on the table, that's the nature of the beast.

[josh]

Most certainly, Pete. We still hear Hall/Seguin every season.

 

I'm not worried about comparisons. I'm concerned with fans expectations. Sure, we'd love to draft franchise players with every pick, and certainly when we get a top 10 pick which we rarely see. But, for the most part, those are unrealistic expectations.

 

If we go back to rebuild discussions, one of my things was telling people to calm down with what they expect from draft picks. Just having draft picks doesnt equal success, its not that simple

[Pete]

Most certainly, Pete. We still hear Hall/Seguin every season.

 

I'm not worried about comparisons. I'm concerned with fans expectations. Sure, we'd love to draft franchise players with every pick, and certainly when we get a top 10 pick which we rarely see. But, for the most part, those are unrealistic expectations.

 

If we go back to rebuild discussions, one of my things was telling people to calm down with what they expect from draft picks. Just having draft picks doesnt equal success, its not that simple

 

Totally.

 

This is a franchise that drafted Jessiman over just about everyone, Sanguenetti over Giroux, MDZ over John Carlson, McIlrath over Tarasenko, and now Lias over Missdlestadt (TBD on the outcome).

 

Seems they are always trying to outsmart everyone and wind up outsmarting themselves more often than not.

[Scott]

Totally.

 

This is a franchise that drafted Jessiman over just about everyone, Sanguenetti over Giroux, MDZ over John Carlson, McIlrath over Tarasenko, and now Lias over Missdlestadt (TBD on the outcome).

 

Seems they are always trying to outsmart everyone and wind up outsmarting themselves more often than not.

 

Yet some struggle with understanding the skepticism these days.

[Dunny]

That's true, what is also true is that everyone has also done all of what you just mention, I don't find that rate of misses very damning.

 

If I alter my expectations, I'm fine with the pick. It takes all kinds to make a hockey team successful. Josh just posted some very telling data and this pick really seems in line with that at this point.

[josh]

Totally.

 

This is a franchise that drafted Jessiman over just about everyone, Sanguenetti over Giroux, MDZ over John Carlson, McIlrath over Tarasenko, and now Lias over Missdlestadt (TBD on the outcome).

 

Seems they are always trying to outsmart everyone and wind up outsmarting themselves more often than not.

Yeah but this is like your gf giving you shit bc the shit her ex used to do.

[Pete]

Yeah but this is like your gf giving you shit bc the shit her ex used to do.

 

Clarke has been here quite some time. Right around before the lockout. So he owns most of this. I blame him, not Gorton.

[Gravesy]

I'd have to ask how many #7's overall didn't make a rebuilding team in the 2nd year after the draft. That's probably a better question.

 

The answer to that appears to be it's a mixed bag (thanks thirtyONE).

There's also a bit of context needed here, as NYR have two pretty solid if unspectacular C's in Zibanejad and Hayes. They also have a C prospect from the same draft in Chytil who has been a steady riser over the last year. What if Andersson was drafted by the Habs, who have basically nothing at C apart from the recently drafted Kotkaniemi?

It's also my opinion that the reason he isn't on the team is because Gorton et al feels his development is better served playing 1st line minutes and PP in Hartford rather than a bottom 6 role with the Rangers. It's not because he flat out isn't good enough for a role in the team. I think they could have put him on the roster and he'd be fine. But they chose not to. You might say that's an easy get out of jail card to play for management, and that's true too I suppose.

Again, there are reasons to doubt whether picking Andersson was the right use of a 7th overall. But I'm not convinced the NHL ready argument is one of them.

[Fatfrancesa]

The answer to that appears to be it's a mixed bag (thanks thirtyONE).

There's also a bit of context needed here, as NYR have two pretty solid if unspectacular C's in Zibanejad and Hayes. They also have a C prospect from the same draft in Chytil who has been a steady riser over the last year. What if Andersson was drafted by the Habs, who have basically nothing at C apart from the recently drafted Kotkaniemi?

It's also my opinion that the reason he isn't on the team is because Gorton et al feels his development is better served playing 1st line minutes and PP in Hartford rather than a bottom 6 role with the Rangers. It's not because he flat out isn't good enough for a role in the team. I think they could have put him on the roster and he'd be fine. But they chose not to. You might say that's an easy get out of jail card to play for management, and that's true too I suppose.

Again, there are reasons to doubt whether picking Andersson was the right use of a 7th overall. But I'm not convinced the NHL ready argument is one of them.

 

The nhl ready argument was the rangers stance not anybody here.

[LONG LONG LONG TIME FAN]

SREGNAR OG!!

[Gravesy]

They're being criticized for saying that and then sending him down. That's the point.

[Fatfrancesa]

Their scouts are already wrong regardless how he turns out. They picked him because most importantly he wouldn’t take long to be in ny. They were wrong and many of his draft classmates turns out are playing in the nhl before he does.

 

It’s not the end of the world but it is concerning

[NYRangers723]

Is it entirely on the GM when it comes to the draft or is it on Clarke too?

 

I think Clark is the main problem. To be fair i have loved their top picks in the past 2 drafts but i feel He falls in love with certain types of players and he will pass up big talent(2010 draft). Unlike Mcilrath i do think Lias will be a good dependable NHL player but at 7th overall was a reach.

[Gravesy]

Their scouts are already wrong regardless how he turns out. They picked him because most importantly he wouldn’t take long to be in ny. They were wrong and many of his draft classmates turns out are playing in the nhl before he does.

 

It’s not the end of the world but it is concerning

 

Well the point I'm trying to make, apparently not very well, is that he wasn't necessarily sent down because he isn't ready to play. It's because they feel his longterm development would be better served by starting the year in Hartford. If they wanted to he could've been on the opening day roster and he would've been fine.

It's definitely disappointing, but it's not really that concerning imo. There are several guys picked between 5 and 15 that year who isn't with their NHL club out of camp for various reasons. It doesn't necessarily mean much. I'll stop on the NHL ready bit now before I bore everyone's tits off. Might be too late to be fair.

[josh]

Their scouts are already wrong regardless how he turns out. They picked him because most importantly he wouldn’t take long to be in ny. They were wrong and many of his draft classmates turns out are playing in the nhl before he does.

 

It’s not the end of the world but it is concerning

I didn’t think the expectation was for him to play with the Rangers last season.

[Rangers]

I think the problem is that we don’t have room for him right now. There are one or two trades to be made, but can’t force those trades.

[NYR2711]

I think the problem is that we don’t have room for him right now. There are one or two trades to be made, but can’t force those trades.

 

I agree. He didn't get sent down for playing poorly. He was sent down because there is not room for him on the team at this point. Also, him starting in Hartford gives him some time to acclimate to the smaller ice here in North America. If they make a move at center and don't bring him up, then I will be concerned.

[Pete]

He's played 30+ games in NA already.

 

Point is, he didn't force them to make a tough decision like moving Zib or Hayes to wing, or between him and Howden.

 

He was pretty much non existent in preseason.

[Kevin]

He's played 30+ games in NA already.

 

Point is, he didn't force them to make a tough decision like moving Zib or Hayes to wing, or between him and Howden.

 

He was pretty much non existent in preseason.

 

This. Glad they didn't just double-down on a possible mistake by just forcing him into the lineup based on where he was drafted. I say possible because I still have a strong belief that he turns into what they thought. He has those make-up intangibles that give me that confidence.

[AliveIn94]

https://www.nhl.com/news/lias-andersson-named-winner-of-2018-lars-erik-sjoberg-award/c-300527356

 

Andersson was voted best rookie in camp, that should count for something.

 

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[Fatfrancesa]

If he does indeed become malhotra are people ok with that? On one hand that is not the player you hope to get at 7 but on the other that’s a pretty good player regardless of the stat line that all good teams need.

 

You know I think it’s pretty obvious that those thinking this is going to take a couple of years are being way to optimistic. All these kids are going to need time to develop.

[NYR2711]

He's played 30+ games in NA already.

 

Point is, he didn't force them to make a tough decision like moving Zib or Hayes to wing, or between him and Howden.

 

He was pretty much non existent in preseason.

 

The fact that he won top rookie in camp highly disputes this.

[Pete]

The fact that he won top rookie in camp highly disputes this.

The fact that he didn't make the team supercedes it.

 

Why is Chytil here?

[NYR2711]

The fact that he didn't make the team supercedes it.

 

Why is Chytil here?

 

Again, there is no reason to have hime play 4 minutes a night on the 4th line, he isn't going to gain any experience playing in that spot. Quit already said he isn't going to play top 9 players on the 4th line. He will get more minutes playing in Hartford. Once either Hayes or Zib are traded, he will be on the team. He wasn't sent down because he was bad. And Hayes on the wing hasn't worked yet everytime they tried it.