Brooks Where the Rangers' Search for a Reliable Right Wing for Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad Might Lead

[Albatrosss]

6 hours ago, Pete said:

The expected goals versus actual goals will eventually even out. The metrics are there with that line. Just no finish. 

I dont agree. They’re not generating chances. They’re not generating shots. When and if they get in the O zone, they usually lose the puck on the boards or Mika loses it going thru the middle. 

[Pete]

27 minutes ago, Albatrosss said:

I dont agree. They’re not generating chances. They’re not generating shots. When and if they get in the O zone, they usually lose the puck on the boards or Mika loses it going thru the middle. 

You disagree with math? If what you're saying is true they're expected goals wouldn't be so favorable. 

[Albatrosss]

19 minutes ago, Pete said:

You disagree with math? If what you're saying is true they're expected goals wouldn't be so favorable. 

What stats are u looking at?

[Pete]

7 minutes ago, Albatrosss said:

What stats are u looking at?

This dates back to last season.

 

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=NYR&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2022-10-07&td=2024-04-18&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8481554&p2=8475184&p3=8476459&p4=0&p5=0

[The Dude]

25 minutes ago, Pete said:

You disagree with math? If what you're saying is true they're expected goals wouldn't be so favorable. 

They were favorable with Kakko last time and last year. Same result. No goals. 

 

Gotta separate 20 from 93. Then go from there. Kreider has been coasting all over the ice. It's time for a message to be sent. 

 

 

[The Dude]

6 minutes ago, Pete said:

This dates back to last season.

 

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=NYR&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2022-10-07&td=2024-04-18&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8481554&p2=8475184&p3=8476459&p4=0&p5=0

At what point do you accept that after 100 games together,  they only have 12 GF and that - It. Does. Not. Work. ? 

 

It's unacceptable. It's not good. It's not coincidence. It's not just going to magically work one day. 

 

Another case in point that metrics aren't the end all be all. The numbers say it should be working. It isn't.  It won't.  100 games says so. 

[Br4d]

12 minutes ago, Pete said:

This dates back to last season.

 

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=NYR&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2022-10-07&td=2024-04-18&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8481554&p2=8475184&p3=8476459&p4=0&p5=0

 

At even strength the CK-MZ line really falls into the lies, damn lies and statistics category.

 

CF%, xGF%, etc all essentially measure shot attempts in one form or another in the OZ and against in the DZ.

 

So when a line gets more OZ starts their extended stats are going to look better.  When they possess the puck longer in the OZ their CF% and xGF% go up because there are no shots being taken down at the other end against their goal.  This means CA% and xGA% aren't part of the package as often as CF% and xGF%.

 

The combo of CK-MZ and Adam Fox are really good at farting around endlessly in the OZ without ever getting a real quality scoring chance.  This is why the CF% and xGF% is above 50% consistently.  It's also why the actual even strength goals are not so good.

[Valriera]

32 minutes ago, The Dude said:

They were favorable with Kakko last time and last year. Same result. No goals. 

 

Gotta separate 20 from 93. Then go from there. Kreider has been coasting all over the ice. It's time for a message to be sent. 

 

 

Agreed. These two must be separated. Kreider needs a simpler forward to play with at 5v5 to be effective. I would try this:

 

Bakery

Vesey-Zib-Kakko

Kreider-Goodrow-Pitlick

Brody-Bonino-Wheeler

 

That fourth line might be ok but it’s slow as shit 

[Pete]

3 minutes ago, Valriera said:

Agreed. These two must be separated. Kreider needs a simpler forward to play with at 5v5 to be effective. I would try this:

 

Bakery

Vesey-Zib-Kakko

Kreider-Goodrow-Pitlick

Brody-Bonino-Wheeler

 

That fourth line might be ok but it’s slow as shit 

Where's Cuylle? 

[Valriera]

Just now, Pete said:

Where's Cuylle? 

Ah you’re right.

 

Bakery

Cuylle-Zib-Kakko

Kreider-Goodrow-Pitlick

Vesey-Bonino-Wheeler

[Pete]

26 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

At even strength the CK-MZ line really falls into the lies, damn lies and statistics category.

 

CF%, xGF%, etc all essentially measure shot attempts in one form or another in the OZ and against in the DZ.

 

So when a line gets more OZ starts their extended stats are going to look better.  When they possess the puck longer in the OZ their CF% and xGF% go up because there are no shots being taken down at the other end against their goal.  This means CA% and xGA% aren't part of the package as often as CF% and xGF%.

 

The combo of CK-MZ and Adam Fox are really good at farting around endlessly in the OZ without ever getting a real quality scoring chance.  This is why the CF% and xGF% is above 50% consistently.  It's also why the actual even strength goals are not so good.

Impressive way to rationalize a bad take.

 

The stats are what they are. 

[Pete]

33 minutes ago, The Dude said:

At what point do you accept that after 100 games together,  they only have 12 GF and that - It. Does. Not. Work. ? 

 

It's unacceptable. It's not good. It's not coincidence. It's not just going to magically work one day. 

 

Another case in point that metrics aren't the end all be all. The numbers say it should be working. It isn't.  It won't.  100 games says so. 

Wheeler sucks. 

[Valriera]

The biggest problem I have with the Mika and kreider combo is no matter who their winger has been in past years they just don’t do anything. They have no direction. Panarin you at least know what he’s going to try to do, which is possess the puck, cycle in zone, make a killer pass there or off the rush. He’s good at it and if it doesn’t work he’s done but at least you know that plan a and plan b is good.

 

I don’t know what Mika’s plan A is. They don’t do anything particularly well but don’t suck at anything either. It’s like their direction is to make each of Mika and kreider happy whether they’re effective or not. The goodrow line with Vesey and pitlick has more of a visible game plan than Mika’s line and that’s why they’re effective. 

 

If I could ask Mika one question it would be that exact one. What are you trying to do on the ice? What’s the game plan for your line? 
 

If I could give Mika a game plan it would be to sit back in the 1-3-1 and counter attack all day. Both he and Kreider are very fast and have good shots. Counterattack, and high press in the d zone to create transition rushes. If that was going to be their plan I’d actually pair them with pitlick and not Kakko who is not fast. Kakko instead could be a very effective part of a forechecking line with goodrow and either Vesey or cuylle who can pin the puck in the offensive zone. But I wouldn’t do that if their plan was to try to forecheck. Kakko is the right guy for that but that plan just looks aimless 
 

my observation is that they watch panarin too much and think they’re as good. They’re not. But that doesn’t mean they can’t be effective together, they just aren’t right now and the bad part is I’m not even sure what they’re trying to do to be effective 

Edited January 15 by Valriera

[The Dude]

42 minutes ago, Pete said:

Wheeler sucks. 

Thank you. I expected nothing from you on the reality that Kakko doesn't work there. 

[Br4d]

45 minutes ago, Pete said:

Impressive way to rationalize a bad take.

 

The stats are what they are. 

 

The stats have been what they are for two years now.  CK-MZ just aren't as good as they look in the OZ at even strength.  Why?

 

Who knows but two years is enough of a sample to make it clear that something is going on.

[Pete]

5 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

The stats have been what they are for two years now.  CK-MZ just aren't as good as they look in the OZ at even strength.  Why?

 

Who knows but two years is enough of a sample to make it clear that something is going on.

It's been a bit more than 1 season. 100 games. It would be inaccurate too to say they don't generate any score in chances at all. It's more that the scoring chance shot it passed up to make an extra pass. But the chance is there. The execution is lacking. 

[jsm7302]

6 hours ago, Ozzy said:

I'm feeling more like Cuylle-Zibby-Kakko on the 2nd line.  Cuylle's earned it!  Kakko and Kreider seem like oil and water.

I like Kreider on the 3rd line; He plays all the special teams anyway, and he gets more of his points on the PP.

 

Now's the time to see.  We have another 39 games as a dress rehearsal.

Put Kreids with Vesey....they play well together. Need a consistent center though that isn't Bonino or Goodrow.

[The Dude]

 

 

25 minutes ago, Pete said:

It's been a bit more than 1 season. 100 games. It would be inaccurate too to say they don't generate any score in chances at all. It's more that the scoring chance shot it passed up to make an extra pass. But the chance is there. The execution is lacking. 

 

 

The site is strange. It's lists that Kakko combo as 100 GP. Then lists  Wheeler with them as 41 GP. 

 

Am I missing something here? They definitely didn't play the whole season together (20/93/17).  I don't even think Kakko played with 20/93 for 100 games stretching over 2- 3 seasons. If that's wrong,  what else is wrong?

 

 

Edited January 16 by The Dude

[Br4d]

18 minutes ago, Pete said:

It's been a bit more than 1 season. 100 games. It would be inaccurate too to say they don't generate any score in chances at all. It's more that the scoring chance shot it passed up to make an extra pass. But the chance is there. The execution is lacking. 

 

That's exactly the point.  There's potential but low production.  At a certain point that becomes a pattern and it's up to the team to break the pattern because the players clearly can't break it themselves.

 

There is no way that Kreider and Zibanejad should be keying a scoring line at even strength at this point.  They just don't get it done often enough to make that a reasonable play.

 

And yes, they might go on a jag for a few games like they did a month ago but then the old patterns settle in and they're not productive at even strength.

 

If Kreider put more of his heart into defense and checking you could argue for keeping them together on that basis but other than that there's just no argument for it at even strength at this point.  On the PP they are fine together and on the PK they are fine together but at EVS they suck.

[BrooksBurner]

I wouldn't use last year at all to evaluate line combinations anymore. That was under a different coach. When it's all you've got, OK, but it's not. We now have a half season of data to operate from with a new coach and a new system. We are seeing some players better off for it, and some aren't. We are seeing some line combinations that previously worked, don't anymore, and vice versa. The data under Laviolette says Zibanejad is an absolute black hole on offense at 5v5. He's dragging down anyone he plays with.

 

 

Kreider needs to be used on a scoring line. Zibanejad needs to not be a focal point of reliance for offense generation for this team at 5v5. Pairing Cuylle with him is actually doing the kid a disservice offensively.

Edited January 16 by BrooksBurner

[Pete]

1 hour ago, Br4d said:

 

That's exactly the point.  There's potential but low production.  At a certain point that becomes a pattern and it's up to the team to break the pattern because the players clearly can't break it themselves.

 

There is no way that Kreider and Zibanejad should be keying a scoring line at even strength at this point.  They just don't get it done often enough to make that a reasonable play.

 

And yes, they might go on a jag for a few games like they did a month ago but then the old patterns settle in and they're not productive at even strength.

 

If Kreider put more of his heart into defense and checking you could argue for keeping them together on that basis but other than that there's just no argument for it at even strength at this point.  On the PP they are fine together and on the PK they are fine together but at EVS they suck.

Kreider doesn't put his heart into hardly anything at ES. I'd break them up.

 

But the numbers don't lie, they are getting chances. But they would rather pass to each other than shoot it into the net. 

[Albatrosss]

I dont see the chances you are talking about. I seem them every game every shift hardly generating any real chances.  

[Ozzy]

2 hours ago, jsm7302 said:

Put Kreids with Vesey....they play well together. Need a consistent center though that isn't Bonino or Goodrow.

 

We're going to have to acquire a Center, I think JSM.  Since it looks like Trocheck is going to be one of our top 6 centers, we can really use a true 3rd line center.  I think the TDL is about 7 weeks away, and we're going to see what teams are going to be sellers in that time.  But definitely keeping my eyes on the standings.

[fletch]

10 hours ago, Pete said:

Kreider doesn't put his heart into hardly anything at ES. I'd break them up.

 

But the numbers don't lie, they are getting chances. But they would rather pass to each other than shoot it into the net. 

 

Kreider and Zib are effective on the penalty kill, the power play, and in specialized situations (for example, up a goal in the last minute of the third) working together, and I'd agree that Kreider turns his effort on and off on 5 on 5 (mostly off during mid-week games in the regular season).  Assuming you want to keep Panarin-Trocheck-Laf intact and split up Kreider and Zib, speculative lines here

 

Vesey-Zib-Kakko

Panarin-Trocheck-Laf

Kreider-Goodrow-Cuylle (man do we miss Chytil)

Brodzinski-Bonino-Pitlick (rotation of fourth liners, among the healthy scratches)

 

Wheeler has got to be on borrowed time with Othmann and other young players my preference for getting a look.

 

Zib and Kreider have played together long enough that you could separate them for most 5 on 5 shifts and pair them up for specialized situations (PP, PK, etc.).

 

If the Rangers acquire at the trade deadline (and recent history says that they will), if they acquire a top 6 forward then you are taking ice time away from a young player like Kakko, Laf, Cuylle and there is one less roster spot for Othmann or another player to come up.  Acquiring another 30+ year old player just makes it that much harder to get TOI for young players that you are hoping are going to develop into more reliable scorers.

Edited January 16 by fletch

[jsm7302]

9 hours ago, Ozzy said:

 

We're going to have to acquire a Center, I think JSM.  Since it looks like Trocheck is going to be one of our top 6 centers, we can really use a true 3rd line center.  I think the TDL is about 7 weeks away, and we're going to see what teams are going to be sellers in that time.  But definitely keeping my eyes on the standings.

I feel like we could use some stability in these constant rotating doors of RW and C. It's been emergency plugs at the TDL for years now. That isn't good roster management. I'm hoping they grab players similar to Vatrano and Copp on expiring contracts and then extend them if it works out this time. The narrative is tired.