2023 NFL Thread

[LindG1000]

43 minutes ago, Br4d said:

Harbaugh is more RB focused than WR focused.

 

I expect the Chargers to be looking for a workhorse back with some speed, maybe two of them.

 

"A workhorse back with speed"

 

"signs Gus Edwards"

 

[H-Dreamer]

didn't expect this one

 

[Br4d]

51 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

"A workhorse back with speed"

 

"signs Gus Edwards"

 

 

That's going to be one of a tandem of main backs is my guess.  Right profile but not the total durability that Harbaugh will be looking for.

[Keirik]

Loving what the Bears are doing

[Keirik]

Fields to Steeelrs for conditional 6th 

[H-Dreamer]

2025 6th too. Chicago is where Rookie-QBs go to die. Caleb should be afraid.

[Br4d]

The NFL is so screwed up right now if you're not in KC.

 

I thought for a long time that the NFL was the smartest professional sports league but they've really come unhinged the last half dozen years or so.  The money is still great but so many franchises do stupid things over and over again.

 

The Steelers have just acquired two atypical QB's who require different offenses to function well.  Wilson and Fields may seem like the same prototype but they are vastly different in terms of what they need to be successful.

 

Wilson needs a spread offense that looks to strike down the field.  Fields needs a person or two in the backfield with him on every down and a game plan to get him on the wings either to run or throw.

 

These are the kind of moves the Steelers would never have made a decade ago.

Edited March 17 by Br4d

[H-Dreamer]

Vikings pick the QB they wanted and didn't even have to pay a Premium for it.

Didn't panic and just spend late round picks, of course people are bitching anyway because they love to do that and never liked the GM from Day 1.

 

Also getting one of the Top-Edge prospects, if not THE Top Edge prospect.

Solid first round, though not really many picks left now.

[Br4d]

6 QB's in the first 12 picks.  Aside from Caleb Williams they are probably 65% likely to bust based on past draft results.

 

The NFL has a really bad paradigm going on about drafting QB's in the 1st round.  The days when only 2 or 3 QB's went in the 1st round, sometimes only 1, were correct.  This recent QB Fever (from about 2014 onwards) is a case of about 16 teams out of 32 who do not understand what the odds are and are pretty bad at developing QB's anyway.

 

2021's failures (because the NFL is on this really bad trip) led directly to 2024's likely failures.  Odds are 2024's failures will lead to the next totally overdrafted QB class in 2027 or so.

Edited April 26 by Br4d

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, Br4d said:

6 QB's in the first 12 picks.  Aside from Caleb Williams they are probably 65% likely to bust based on past draft results.

 

The NFL has a really bad paradigm going on about drafting QB's in the 1st round.  The days when only 2 or 3 QB's went in the 1st round, sometimes only 1, were correct.  This recent QB Fever (from about 2014 onwards) is a case of about 16 teams out of 32 who do not understand what the odds are and are pretty bad at developing QB's anyway.

 

2021's failures (because the NFL is on this really bad trip) led directly to 2024's likely failures.  Odds are 2024's failures will lead to the next totally overdrafted QB class in 2027 or so.

What are the odds of winning Super Bowl without a top 10 QB in the league?

 

I think they know the bust odds on drafting QBs, but when SB probabilities are generally dictated by needing a high end QB, it gets GMs to roll the dice at draft time.

 

With that said, I don’t know what the Falcons are doing. Completely unnecessary reach. They just signed Cousins to big money and Penix is already 24 years old. He’s going to sit until his late 20s having not played an NFL game? Just strange. If it were a young 21 year old QB or something that’d be fine.

[H-Dreamer]

1 hour ago, Br4d said:

6 QB's in the first 12 picks.  Aside from Caleb Williams they are probably 65% likely to bust based on past draft results.

 

The NFL has a really bad paradigm going on about drafting QB's in the 1st round.  The days when only 2 or 3 QB's went in the 1st round, sometimes only 1, were correct.  This recent QB Fever (from about 2014 onwards) is a case of about 16 teams out of 32 who do not understand what the odds are and are pretty bad at developing QB's anyway.

 

2021's failures (because the NFL is on this really bad trip) led directly to 2024's likely failures.  Odds are 2024's failures will lead to the next totally overdrafted QB class in 2027 or so.

Yh, most these QBs would have been advertised as "projects" and picked in the later rounds, but no one has patience anymore to develop. Well, except the Packers and oh look their guy looks solid. Fans are the biggest hinderance these days, never happy, always complaining and adding pressure, because Owners get scared they don't sell enough tickets if they don't draft shiny new toys.

Broncos fan I watch occasionally made it almost his entire personality that he wanted a QB this draft, any QB, he got really salty when the Vikings got an additional 1st Rounder and threatened to trade up. lol (and they didn't even need it in the end)

3 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

What are the odds of winning Super Bowl without a top 10 QB in the league?

 

I think they know the bust odds on drafting QBs, but when SB probabilities are generally dictated by needing a high end QB, it gets GMs to roll the dice at draft time.

 

With that said, I don’t know what the Falcons are doing. Completely unnecessary reach. They just signed Cousins to big money and Penix is already 24 years old. He’s going to sit until his late 20s having not played an NFL game? Just strange. If it were a young 21 year old QB or something that’d be fine.

Past 10 years? 50/50

Though one might attribute that to Brady, who won 4 as a late pick, then there's Foles winning one as a third Round Pick.

Mahomes got 3 as a 10th Overall, guess that counts, Stafford as 1st Overall, but not on the team that drafted him and the shell of Peyton Manning with the Broncos.

[Ozzy]

We got a pretty good TE!  That's cool!!

 

Quote

 

With the 13th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Las Vegas Raiders selected Brock Bowers from the University of Georgia.

The consensus All-American tight end is a two-time national champion and two-time John Mackey Award winner, given to the best tight end in college football. In three seasons at Georgia, he racked up 2,538 receiving yards on 175 catches and 26 touchdowns. His sophomore season at Georgia, he led his team in all three of those categories as well.

 

 

Quote

Rang: The reigning Mackey Award winner and a rare three-time All-American, Bowers is more decorated than a wedding cake, making him perhaps the perfect addition to a town as glitzy as Las Vegas. Bowers is no roll of the dice, however. He's cat-quick with supremely reliable hands and the contact balance of a running back. The AFC West already boasts a superstar tight end in Kansas City's Travis Kelce, but the Raiders just added the next one in Bowers.

 

[Br4d]

27 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

What are the odds of winning Super Bowl without a top 10 QB in the league?

 

I think they know the bust odds on drafting QBs, but when SB probabilities are generally dictated by needing a high end QB, it gets GMs to roll the dice at draft time.

 

With that said, I don’t know what the Falcons are doing. Completely unnecessary reach. They just signed Cousins to big money and Penix is already 24 years old. He’s going to sit until his late 20s having not played an NFL game? Just strange. If it were a young 21 year old QB or something that’d be fine.

 

The 1st round of the draft is for getting great talent.  You win by accumulating more talent than the rest of the teams you are competing with.

 

Taking the 6th QB, or the 5th, 4th or 3rd, is really likely to see you giving up a talent differential vs what you would have gotten there instead.

 

The NFL right now takes that extra QB early in the 1st round.  That's why so many teams are generationally hopeless at this point.

 

It is important to get a QB but it is more important not to bust on your early 1st round pick.

[BrooksBurner]

25 minutes ago, H-Dreamer said:

Yh, most these QBs would have been advertised as "projects" and picked in the later rounds, but no one has patience anymore to develop. Well, except the Packers and oh look their guy looks solid. Fans are the biggest hinderance these days, never happy, always complaining and adding pressure, because Owners get scared they don't sell enough tickets if they don't draft shiny new toys.

Broncos fan I watch occasionally made it almost his entire personality that he wanted a QB this draft, any QB, he got really salty when the Vikings got an additional 1st Rounder and threatened to trade up. lol (and they didn't even need it in the end)

Past 10 years? 50/50

Though one might attribute that to Brady, who won 4 as a late pick, then there's Foles winning one as a third Round Pick.

Mahomes got 3 as a 10th Overall, guess that counts, Stafford as 1st Overall, but not on the team that drafted him and the shell of Peyton Manning with the Broncos.

 

3x Mahomes

4x Brady

1x Stafford

1x Peyton Manning

1x Foles

 

By my estimation, that’s 1 out of 10 with a below top 5-10 QB in the league.

 

The 10 years before that:

2x Ben Roethlisberger
2x Eli Manning

1x Russel Wilson

1x Flacco

1x Aaron Rodgers

1x Drew Brees

1x Tom Brady

1x Peyton Manning

 

Only argument that can be made is Flacco was outside the top 10. I’m not even going to look to see if it’s true, and just give it to you. Again 1 out of 10.

 

The odds in the last 20 years of winning a SB without a top 10 QB are 10%…at best.

 

All of a sudden the bust rate on QBs in the draft doesn’t hit as hard.

Edited April 26 by BrooksBurner

[Br4d]

24 minutes ago, H-Dreamer said:

Yh, most these QBs would have been advertised as "projects" and picked in the later rounds, but no one has patience anymore to develop. Well, except the Packers and oh look their guy looks solid. Fans are the biggest hinderance these days, never happy, always complaining and adding pressure, because Owners get scared they don't sell enough tickets if they don't draft shiny new toys.

Broncos fan I watch occasionally made it almost his entire personality that he wanted a QB this draft, any QB, he got really salty when the Vikings got an additional 1st Rounder and threatened to trade up. lol (and they didn't even need it in the end)

Past 10 years? 50/50

Though one might attribute that to Brady, who won 4 as a late pick, then there's Foles winning one as a third Round Pick.

Mahomes got 3 as a 10th Overall, guess that counts, Stafford as 1st Overall, but not on the team that drafted him and the shell of Peyton Manning with the Broncos.

 

Mahomes is unique for two reasons.  One he has tremendous talent that most 1st round QB's do not and two he went to Andy Reid and a well-stocked roster with a good OL, WR, TE and RB.

 

Anybody trying to win on the Mahomes formula is playing with themselves unless they have Andy Reid or a Mahomes-clone.

[BrooksBurner]

3 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

The 1st round of the draft is for getting great talent.  You win by accumulating more talent than the rest of the teams you are competing with.

 

Taking the 6th QB, or the 5th, 4th or 3rd, is really likely to see you giving up a talent differential vs what you would have gotten there instead.

 

The NFL right now takes that extra QB early in the 1st round.  That's why so many teams are generationally hopeless at this point.

 

It is important to get a QB but it is more important not to bust on your early 1st round pick.

I agree that your logic is sound and it sounds good, but not having a top QB doesn’t work out that often regardless of how good the rest of the team is. Sounds good on paper, but works poorly in practice. Like socialism.

[H-Dreamer]

4 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

3x Mahomes

4x Brady

1x Stafford

1x Peyton Manning

1x Foles

 

By my estimation, that’s 1 out of 10 with a below top 5-10 QB in the league.

 

The 10 years before that:

2x Ben Roethlisberger
2x Eli Manning

1x Russel Wilson

1x Flacco

1x Aaron Rodgers

1x Drew Brees

1x Tom Brady

1x Peyton Manning

 

Only argument that can be made is Flacco was outside the top 10. I’m not even going to look to see if it’s true, and just give it to you. Again 1 out of 10.

 

The odds in the last 20 years of winning a SB without a top 10 QB are 10%…at best.

 

All of a sudden the bust rate on QBs in the draft doesn’t hit as hard.

It doesn't? The Bears are on their third QB project in like 8 years, the Panthers will probably draft QB in 2 years again, cause their team sucks too hard for a young QB to carry it.

Broncos haven't had a good QB since Manning left, though they sure tried.

Yes you need a good QB to win a Superbowl, no randomly picking QBs in the first round doesn't get you one.

[Br4d]

3 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

3x Mahomes

4x Brady

1x Stafford

1x Peyton Manning

1x Foles

 

By my estimation, that’s 1 out of 10 with a below top 5-10 QB in the league.

 

The 10 years before that:

2x Ben Roethlisberger
2x Eli Manning

1x Russel Wilson

1x Flacco

1x Aaron Rodgers

1x Drew Brees

1x Tom Brady

1x Peyton Manning

 

Only argument that can be made is Flacco was outside the top 10. I’m not even going to look to see if it’s true, and just give it to you. Again 1 out of 10.

 

The odds in the last 20 years of winning a SB without a top 10 QB are 10%…at best.

 

All of a sudden the bust rate on QBs in the draft doesn’t hit as hard.

 

That's 7 out of 10 wrapped up in a 6th round pick and a guy who went to the perfect destination.

 

The 10 years before that featured a lot of guys picked in 2 or 3 QB draft pods in the 1st or later rounds.

 

Aaron Rodgers was one of two guys picked in 2006.  Roethlisberger went to the perfect destination for a rookie bubble.  Drew Brees was the 2nd QB off the board in 2001 at pick 32.  Peyton Manning was the 1st QB picked in 1998.  Eli Manning was the 1st QB picked in 2004.

[Br4d]

4 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

I agree that your logic is sound and it sounds good, but not having a top QB doesn’t work out that often regardless of how good the rest of the team is. Sounds good on paper, but works poorly in practice. Like socialism.

 

Having a top QB and nothing else is worse than having an average QB and real talent.

 

Look at Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow.  Look at the Lions with Matthew Stafford.  Look at the Chargers with Drew Brees.

 

The reality is that about 75% of the teams have a good, competent or better QB (Kirk Cousins with the Vikings, Josh Allen with the Bills, etc.) and still can't get out of their own way.

 

Draft the *best* player available.  Don't make bets on guys who weren't close to the best at their position in college.  This was a very effective golden rule that allowed teams picking lower in the round to dominate teams picking higher on a consistent basis for 40-odd years before everybody got impatient and started wasting their 1st round picks on pipe dreams about a decade ago.

[BrooksBurner]

20 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

Having a top QB and nothing else is worse than having an average QB and real talent.

 

Look at Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow.  Look at the Lions with Matthew Stafford.  Look at the Chargers with Drew Brees.

 

The reality is that about 75% of the teams have a good, competent or better QB (Kirk Cousins with the Vikings, Josh Allen with the Bills, etc.) and still can't get out of their own way.

 

Draft the *best* player available.  Don't make bets on guys who weren't close to the best at their position in college.  This was a very effective golden rule that allowed teams picking lower in the round to dominate teams picking higher on a consistent basis for 40-odd years before everybody got impatient and started wasting their 1st round picks on pipe dreams about a decade ago.

 

Why are we picking between two scenarios that are so unlikely to win a Super Bowl?

 

I think it's generally harder to find a top QB, so I don't blame teams for making it a higher priority in the new NFL that has become a high octane passing league. The end goal is Super Bowl. You need a top QB to have a reasonable chance at one. It's kind of that simple IMO, though if you own a team and care more about making the playoffs for revenue, just to get casually bounced in the first round or two year over year, that's fine. Different objective.

[BrooksBurner]

47 minutes ago, H-Dreamer said:

It doesn't? The Bears are on their third QB project in like 8 years, the Panthers will probably draft QB in 2 years again, cause their team sucks too hard for a young QB to carry it.

Broncos haven't had a good QB since Manning left, though they sure tried.

Yes you need a good QB to win a Superbowl, no randomly picking QBs in the first round doesn't get you one.

 

So what? It doesn't change the Super Bowl results. It's a different league today. It's a passing dominant league and QB values are higher than ever. As a result, any QB with even a small chance of being good is generally going to get picked higher than ever before. That's just how it is. All of these examples that get thrown out there of "Brady was a 6th", "Russel Wilson was a 3rd", doesn't matter. It's a new era propped up by a clear favoritism on how important that QB has become to be recognized, especially as the game has changed.

[Br4d]

25 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

So what? It doesn't change the Super Bowl results. It's a different league today. It's a passing dominant league and QB values are higher than ever. As a result, any QB with even a small chance of being good is generally going to get picked higher than ever before. That's just how it is. All of these examples that get thrown out there of "Brady was a 6th", "Russel Wilson was a 3rd", doesn't matter. It's a new era propped up by a clear favoritism on how important that QB has become to be recognized, especially as the game has changed.

 

The only evidence that taking a QB in the 1st round after pick 1 is successful are Roethlisberger, Flacco and Mahomes.  All 3 went to rock solid franchises with great head coaches.

 

I guess what I'm trying to say is that if you are going to cherry-pick a QB in round 1 after pick 1 and throw him on the field you'd better have everything else all set or you are going to fail.

Edited April 26 by Br4d