2021 Offseason Thread: Fuck Around & Find Out!

[The Dude]

Man I certainly hope not. Palmieri is certainly seen better days and was downright terrible at times this year with the devils and has done virtually nothing with the Isles. Putting him on the second line would be criminal at this point. Can't see how he's not a big step in the wrong direction.

Gabriel has no business being in the NHL having played under 50 games in 8 seasons, I think almost half of those in one year with the Devils. He's a punching bag, certainly willing to instigate and head off looking for the biggest icebag he can find.

 

Scored 2 goals today in the playoffs. I don't think he's as washed up as it looked with the Devils.

[Scott]

Scored 2 goals today in the playoffs. I don't think he's as washed up as it looked with the Devils.

 

he had a good game, Jarry was trash overall. I'll stick with a hard pass on any thought of him coming here and playing on the 2nd line or any line for that matter.

[The Dude]

You're probably right that it's Kravtsov vs Buchnevich for a spot, but there's also the question of "can you afford to pay Buchnevich and Zibanejad and the guy you trade for and Fox?"

 

And bluntly, it's probably Fox, guy you trade for, Zibanejad, Buchnevich a distant 4th.

 

There are some rather serious contract implications and ripples from paying Buchnevich this season - doubly so since he's an RFA with arbitration rights. He's a very valuable trade asset right now, and if it's Buchnevich that flips the switch for us on a player that can really make a difference and check all the boxes? I don't really hesitate there.

 

Throwing some stuff out there:

 

If the Blues wash out in the first round, could we get a Brayden Schenn or a Ryan O'Reilly?

If the Jets wash out in the first round, is Mark Schiefele or PLD available?

If the Panthers can't secure Barkov - is he available?

If the Kings want Eichel, would they deal Kopitar?

 

ALL of those teams could use a Buchnevich and a top tier young D as the centerpieces of a package. Most would prefer something concrete over the somewhat mystery box approach Kravtsov would offer.

 

But neither Kakko or Kravstov are guaranteed to pan out. Kakko as the 2nd overall pick has not produced any offense. None. 10 goals last year and was invisible. 9 this year, and slightly visible. If any other team drafted him, this output, no matter what would be deemed a failure.

 

Kravstov hasn't played enough to seriously gauge. He looks very soft so far. He's listed as 6'3, but looks more like 5'11 out there.

 

While Buchnevich isn't a powerforward he is a guy that works and now goes to the hard spots on the ice. He'll get dirty, he'll attack the net, and he'll be responsible defensively. More importantly he produces in NY. The other two we can't really say that about only because we don't know yet. So, why are we deeming uncertainties as replacements for a guy that has been successful? Sure we won't have to pay them, but we may not have to, if they don't pan out.

 

I understand the possible cap implications of signing him. But I think it's justifiable since hes the ONLY winger not named Panarin that can be depended on to be consistent in what he does. Are we never going to pay anyone? Are we going to constantly cycle in younger players just to do it? I'd love to keep them all and see how things look in 3 years. That's not possible. Not with the obvious change coming. Assets have to be moved.

 

You have to question why any of the teams you just listed would want to pay Buchnevich over the players you are suggesting . If they are trading any of those players, it's for prospects or guys on ELCs. Why wouldn't they pay O'Reilly his 7.5, but be fine with giving Buchnevich 5 5 and changing the dynamic of their team? Maybe for Kopitar, since it's likely a tear down in LA.

 

IMO the Rangers should have the same mentality as you suggest these other teams should have. Not a lot of concrete in the Rangers forward lineup. You'd be trading one of the few concrete guys.

 

Idk, unless you're revamping the top 6 dramatically and you're getting rid of Zibanejad and or Strome, and inserting some sort of big time gritty forward, I'm a little gunshy of putting that much faith in 2 still very uncertainties.

 

Believe me. I'm shocked myself that I think Buchnevich is a keeper.

[The Dude]

I don't see the issue of having Buchnevich, Kakko, and Kravtsov on the right side. Young, offensive talent, defensively responsible, and they all have decent size. Buchnevich added some grit, Kakko is becoming tougher to play against, and Kravtsov is still young and growing.

 

Which one would be happy playing on the 3rd line? Who is providing the needed grit in the top nine that is not on the roster? Neither Kakko nor Kravtsov have that in them. It's certainly not something I'd want or demand they somehow develop. One has to go unless they can somehow pawn Kreider off to someone, which makes the roster that much softer..

 

If the plan is to go top heavy in skill and have your 4th line be the energy/banger line, I guess your suggestion works. You're just not going to improve your top six as one of these guys HAS to be used as an asset in a package to get that game changer they need.

 

Barring Zibanejad or Strome being deemed a problem, I don't see anyone else being movable or worth anything to other teams.

[LindG1000]

But neither Kakko or Kravstov are guaranteed to pan out. Kakko as the 2nd overall pick has not produced any offense. None. 10 goals last year and was invisible. 9 this year, and slightly visible. If any other team drafted him, this output, no matter what would be deemed a failure.

 

Kravstov hasn't played enough to seriously gauge. He looks very soft so far. He's listed as 6'3, but looks more like 5'11 out there.

 

While Buchnevich isn't a powerforward he is a guy that works and now goes to the hard spots on the ice. He'll get dirty, he'll attack the net, and he'll be responsible defensively. More importantly he produces in NY. The other two we can't really say that about only because we don't know yet. So, why are we deeming uncertainties as replacements for a guy that has been successful? Sure we won't have to pay them, but we may not have to, if they don't pan out.

 

I understand the possible cap implications of signing him. But I think it's justifiable since hes the ONLY winger not named Panarin that can be depended on to be consistent in what he does. Are we never going to pay anyone? Are we going to constantly cycle in younger players just to do it? I'd love to keep them all and see how things look in 3 years. That's not possible. Not with the obvious change coming. Assets have to be moved.

 

You have to question why any of the teams you just listed would want to pay Buchnevich over the players you are suggesting . If they are trading any of those players, it's for prospects or guys on ELCs. Why wouldn't they pay O'Reilly his 7.5, but be fine with giving Buchnevich 5 5 and changing the dynamic of their team? Maybe for Kopitar, since it's likely a tear down in LA.

 

IMO the Rangers should have the same mentality as you suggest these other teams should have. Not a lot of concrete in the Rangers forward lineup. You'd be trading one of the few concrete guys.

 

Idk, unless you're revamping the top 6 dramatically and you're getting rid of Zibanejad and or Strome, and inserting some sort of big time gritty forward, I'm a little gunshy of putting that much faith in 2 still very uncertainties.

 

Believe me. I'm shocked myself that I think Buchnevich is a keeper.

 

Kakko and Kravtsov have, thus far, been below their billing. Kakko's also sitting on underlying numbers suggesting that he's been both miscast (as in he gets almost no special teams time) and horrendously unlucky (his xGF and GF% are two standard deviations apart). Kravtsov's played like 14 games and has been on the fourth line for no apparent reason. It's fine. It's also a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy when you consistently have your top picks in third and fourth line roles and then complain as to why they're not going off. It's probably not a coincidence that Laf moved into Kreider's spot and suddenly had like 8 points in 10 games or however he ended the season.

 

I can't really justify having 24 million dollars tied up in Panarin, Kreider, and Buchnevich when we've got Lafreniere, Kakko, and Kravtsov on ELC and the cap is flat for at least three more years. Just can't have six top six wings. We know Kreider's not going anywhere because we need "more like him" per Dolan. We know Panarin isn't going anywhere. Who's left? And sure, one of them, heck, two of them might not pan out, but you're not exactly selling high here either.

 

I don't know what you're on about here with "are we never going to pay" and "why would other teams..." - he's a first line wing? Okay, cool, surely other teams see him that way too, right? Perhaps a team or two that has a need to "rebuild on the fly" and a guy who needs a change of scenery exists? Oh, are we never going to pay...dude, we're talking about the Zib and Fox and other contracts here. The whole point of this conversation is that Buch has clearly taken a big step, but he plays the wrong position in a similar style to four other players we have at the same position - three of which make less than he do by a considerable amount - and it may simply be poor cap management to pay him what he's worth. Might not be for another team that has strong center depth but nothing on the wings - like the Kings - or a team that has to pry their window open with a crowbar like the Blues.

[The Dude]

Kakko and Kravtsov have, thus far, been below their billing. Kakko's also sitting on underlying numbers suggesting that he's been both miscast (as in he gets almost no special teams time) and horrendously unlucky (his xGF and GF% are two standard deviations apart). Kravtsov's played like 14 games and has been on the fourth line for no apparent reason. It's fine. It's also a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy when you consistently have your top picks in third and fourth line roles and then complain as to why they're not going off. It's probably not a coincidence that Laf moved into Kreider's spot and suddenly had like 8 points in 10 games or however he ended the season.

 

I can't really justify having 24 million dollars tied up in Panarin, Kreider, and Buchnevich when we've got Lafreniere, Kakko, and Kravtsov on ELC and the cap is flat for at least three more years. Just can't have six top six wings. We know Kreider's not going anywhere because we need "more like him" per Dolan. We know Panarin isn't going anywhere. Who's left? And sure, one of them, heck, two of them might not pan out, but you're not exactly selling high here either.

 

I don't know what you're on about here with "are we never going to pay" and "why would other teams..." - he's a first line wing? Okay, cool, surely other teams see him that way too, right? Perhaps a team or two that has a need to "rebuild on the fly" and a guy who needs a change of scenery exists? Oh, are we never going to pay...dude, we're talking about the Zib and Fox and other contracts here. The whole point of this conversation is that Buch has clearly taken a big step, but he plays the wrong position in a similar style to four other players we have at the same position - three of which make less than he do by a considerable amount - and it may simply be poor cap management to pay him what he's worth. Might not be for another team that has strong center depth but nothing on the wings - like the Kings - or a team that has to pry their window open with a crowbar like the Blues.

 

I say it because you are replacing a solid player with question marks. We won't have 6 top six wingers, because you have to trade atleast one of the three RW we are generally talking about.

 

I'm going on about paying a guy his worth while he's cheap and here. 5.5 for Buchnevich isn't going to put restraints on the cap. The trend around here is out with the old, in with the new. Even if the old isn't old. You can't not pay a guy that works because you have 2 very big question marks in the pipeline. When you make the trade and neither prospect works out, THEN what? You're out a top 6/9 forward who fit and wasn't costing you an arm and a leg.

 

The prospects aren't bursting onto the scene and pushing ANYONE for spots. Colin Blackwell got more time than the teams top prospects. That isn't good.

 

This is a homegrown player who is doing good and is getting better still. I say keep him and deal one of the prospects in the likely package for whomever they bring in. 5.5- 6 for a DEFINITE top 9 forward is proper spending. This isn't Trouba, this isn't Kreider. It's that sweet spot.

 

If these kids showed anything electric, I'd have different feelings on this. But they really don't look good. So not good that Kakko should have been sent to Hartford. I'm not ready to say these 2 can no doubt step into a top 6 role in a season the team needs to compete.

[Cash or Czech]

Fox has one year left on his deal. Same with Kakko. Lafreniere has two left, as do Zibanejad and Strome. Shesterkin is an RFA. We don't have to pinch pennies for next season, but we do have to plan for the future. We can't sign every top-6 winger to $6mil+ AAVs because then we won't be able to pay our top prospects if they develop. And you can't just ignore that because "they aren't that good right now". If you do that, and tie up a ton of cap space in these guys, you then have to try to trade these guys who have NTCs and NMCs who might be slightly overpaid and older than their "prime". We go from a position of strength to a position of weakness. It's not a "now" problem, but it's still a problem nonetheless. Ignoring it is probably the dumbest thing we can do as we transition into a (hopefully) perennial playoff contender again.

[TwoMinutesForNothing]

Has Landeskog been discussed?

[Phil]

What's to discuss? He's a left wing. So are Panarin, Lafreni?re, and Kreider. Where is he going to play? How will he get meaningful ice time?

 

Even if you managed to move Kreider, Landeskog would still be 3LW.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

[LindG1000]

What's to discuss? He's a left wing. So are Panarin, Lafreni?re, and Kreider. Where is he going to play? How will he get meaningful ice time?

 

Even if you managed to move Kreider, Landeskog would still be 3LW.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

 

Landeskog plays quite a bit of center, too. He took nearly 500 faceoffs this season.

 

The hard part is "how or why, exactly, is he leaving the Avalanche"?

[Cash or Czech]

What other captains are we going to bring up? ROR and Landeskog first. We going after McDavid next? Crosby or Stamkos?

[Ozzy]

Landeskog plays quite a bit of center, too. He took nearly 500 faceoffs this season.

 

The hard part is "how or why, exactly, is he leaving the Avalanche"?

 

I think it would be tough to pull him away from the Avs. I'm still peeking at Getzlaf though; He's 36 but I think we could eek 2 years out of him. His experience and toughness alone would be like an injection of adrenaline. Throw in his faceoff ability and I think we'd have our 3C...at least for 2 seasons.

 

He's coming off that long $8.25 mil deal, so he's made his bucks. I wonder if we can get him for 2 years/$6 million or less.

[Pete]

Landeskog plays quite a bit of center, too. He took nearly 500 faceoffs this season.

 

The hard part is "how or why, exactly, is he leaving the Avalanche"?

 

Taking a draw doesn't make you a center. He's a lefty and McKinnon is a righty, could be they just have strong sides and switch for whatever reason.

[Vodka Drunkenski]

Taking a draw doesn't make you a center. He's a lefty and McKinnon is a righty, could be they just have strong sides and switch for whatever reason.

 

I think you’re right, he’s only listed as a winger

[Kevin]

Landeskog plays quite a bit of center, too. He took nearly 500 faceoffs this season.

 

The hard part is "how or why, exactly, is he leaving the Avalanche"?

 

Does he though? Sometimes the wing will take the faceoffs but then the center resumes his defensive responsibilities. I can't find anything that shows that Landeskog played any center this year.

 

 

edit: I guess I should have read ahead. Pete covered it.

[josh]

I thought I remembered him playing a few games a C this season, but maybe I’m thinking of someone else

[LindG1000]

I say it because you are replacing a solid player with question marks. We won't have 6 top six wingers, because you have to trade atleast one of the three RW we are generally talking about.

 

I'm going on about paying a guy his worth while he's cheap and here. 5.5 for Buchnevich isn't going to put restraints on the cap. The trend around here is out with the old, in with the new. Even if the old isn't old. You can't not pay a guy that works because you have 2 very big question marks in the pipeline. When you make the trade and neither prospect works out, THEN what? You're out a top 6/9 forward who fit and wasn't costing you an arm and a leg.

 

Then, at least you have free agency and trade assets to make it work.

 

If Buchnevich wants 4.5-5.5 - this conversation is pointless unless he wants >3 years. If he wants more - or he wants term - I don't think you've correctly estimated how bad it would be cap-wise to have yet another large deal on the books like this. You're not choosing between Buchnevich and Kakko/Kravtsov - that's a gross oversimplification. You're more likely choosing between Buchnevich and Zibanejad/Strome/whomever our 1a center is.

 

We don't have a center under contract for 2022-23. That's 16 months away and it's an infinitely more pressing need than Buchnevich.

 

The prospects aren't bursting onto the scene and pushing ANYONE for spots. Colin Blackwell got more time than the teams top prospects. That isn't good.

 

Sure, but were they given the chance? When Lafreniere moved up, he put up 7 points in 9 games. Kakko, again, fancy stats say he's real strong and ready - didn't get the shot. Kravtsov spent the season on the 4th line. Nobody got PP or PK time. You railed on Quinn endlessly for this shit, didn't you?

 

This is a homegrown player who is doing good and is getting better still. I say keep him and deal one of the prospects in the likely package for whomever they bring in. 5.5- 6 for a DEFINITE top 9 forward is proper spending. This isn't Trouba, this isn't Kreider. It's that sweet spot.

 

Watch how ugly this gets real fast.

 

You trade Kravtsov+futures. You get, just for argument's sake, Eichel. That 23M in space? It's now 14.

You sign Buchnevich, 6m, 4 years. Now it's 8.

You sign Shesterkin - probably the Demko deal (5x5). Now it's 3.

Re-sign Chytil and Gauthier (because Howden got plucked by Seattle). Buy out Deangelo. Sign Bogosian/any decent veteran D. You're basically at cap.

 

Hey. This works for 2021-22 (doesn't address a lick of our toughness issue, doesn't make us any more playoff ready, but it works)...but it fucks us down the line. Hard.

 

We go into the 2022-23 offseason with 19M in cap space to work out Zibanejad, Strome(maybe more accurately, two centers, one of whom has to be top 6 caliber), Kakko, Fox, and a backup goalie. That's not to mention that you're at 30M for the year after (less whatever Fox and Kakko and Zib get) when you have to work out Lafreniere and Miller/Jones. Oh - and Kreider and Trouba still have full NMCs.

 

Bam. Fucked. Even if Chytil goes the other way in the Eichel deal - you're fucked.

 

You can't give Buchnevich term. You might not even be able to give him more than a season without first answering the Center and Fox questions.

[LindG1000]

What other captains are we going to bring up? ROR and Landeskog first. We going after McDavid next? Crosby or Stamkos?

 

Sure. Why not.

 

The Lightning seem to Tonya Harding the poor guy every six weeks anyway.

[Phil]

Landeskog plays quite a bit of center, too. He took nearly 500 faceoffs this season.

 

The hard part is "how or why, exactly, is he leaving the Avalanche"?

 

No, he doesn't. He takes faceoffs. The same as other wingers do. He's a winger. A left winger. He apparently played right wing in junior. Call me crazy, but signing a career NHL left wing and then asking him to play the right (or center) is a pretty stupid strategy.

[The Dude]

Fox has one year left on his deal. Same with Kakko. Lafreniere has two left, as do Zibanejad and Strome. Shesterkin is an RFA. We don't have to pinch pennies for next season, but we do have to plan for the future. We can't sign every top-6 winger to $6mil+ AAVs because then we won't be able to pay our top prospects if they develop. And you can't just ignore that because "they aren't that good right now". If you do that, and tie up a ton of cap space in these guys, you then have to try to trade these guys who have NTCs and NMCs who might be slightly overpaid and older than their "prime". We go from a position of strength to a position of weakness. It's not a "now" problem, but it's still a problem nonetheless. Ignoring it is probably the dumbest thing we can do as we transition into a (hopefully) perennial playoff contender again.

 

Why do you continually neglect to think Buchnevich as possibly part of the future. Again, we don't know what Kakko is. We don't even know what Lafreniere is, but here you are saying we have to pay them Just completely ignoring the point I was making. Nothing dumb about signing a good player at what should be a reasonable price while you still can.

 

I get it if you honestly think that Kravstov or Kakko are definitely going to instantly slot up into the top 6. But you aren't saying that. You question their ability almost as much as I do.

 

I guess we'll have to wait and see. Whatever they do, obviously I hope whomever they keep and who ever they trade favors the Rangers more than the teams they deal these assets to.

[The Dude]

What other captains are we going to bring up? ROR and Landeskog first. We going after McDavid next? Crosby or Stamkos?

 

I mean, Stamkos is a real possibility.....

[The Dude]

Then, at least you have free agency and trade assets to make it work.

 

If Buchnevich wants 4.5-5.5 - this conversation is pointless unless he wants >3 years. If he wants more - or he wants term - I don't think you've correctly estimated how bad it would be cap-wise to have yet another large deal on the books like this. You're not choosing between Buchnevich and Kakko/Kravtsov - that's a gross oversimplification. You're more likely choosing between Buchnevich and Zibanejad/Strome/whomever our 1a center is.

 

We don't have a center under contract for 2022-23. That's 16 months away and it's an infinitely more pressing need than Buchnevich.

 

 

 

Sure, but were they given the chance? When Lafreniere moved up, he put up 7 points in 9 games. Kakko, again, fancy stats say he's real strong and ready - didn't get the shot. Kravtsov spent the season on the 4th line. Nobody got PP or PK time. You railed on Quinn endlessly for this shit, didn't you?

 

 

 

Watch how ugly this gets real fast.

 

You trade Kravtsov+futures. You get, just for argument's sake, Eichel. That 23M in space? It's now 14.

You sign Buchnevich, 6m, 4 years. Now it's 8.

You sign Shesterkin - probably the Demko deal (5x5). Now it's 3.

Re-sign Chytil and Gauthier (because Howden got plucked by Seattle). Buy out Deangelo. Sign Bogosian/any decent veteran D. You're basically at cap.

 

Hey. This works for 2021-22 (doesn't address a lick of our toughness issue, doesn't make us any more playoff ready, but it works)...but it fucks us down the line. Hard.

 

We go into the 2022-23 offseason with 19M in cap space to work out Zibanejad, Strome(maybe more accurately, two centers, one of whom has to be top 6 caliber), Kakko, Fox, and a backup goalie. That's not to mention that you're at 30M for the year after (less whatever Fox and Kakko and Zib get) when you have to work out Lafreniere and Miller/Jones. Oh - and Kreider and Trouba still have full NMCs.

 

Bam. Fucked. Even if Chytil goes the other way in the Eichel deal - you're fucked.

 

You can't give Buchnevich term. You might not even be able to give him more than a season without first answering the Center and Fox questions.

 

Then just don't pay anyone! What do you even do IF one of Kakko, Lafreniere or Kravstov pan out? Trade them too? At some point you have to pay and at some point you will have to trade.

 

Sometimes you just have to sign the player and figure it out later. If it comes down to Buchnevich needs to go when or IF you have to pay his competition on the roster, then... You trade him. At that price he's still an asset. He's not getting any kind of NTC, so that's not a worry. I think he will live up to what ever contract he gets, because he's still improving.

[LindG1000]

Then just don't pay anyone!

 

Stop with this ridiculous extreme take. Literally nobody is arguing this.

 

What do you even do IF one of Kakko, Lafreniere or Kravstov pan out? Trade them too? At some point you have to pay and at some point you will have to trade.

 

Again, it's not Kakko. It's not Laf. It's not Kravtsov. It's that assuming we go get a center or two, we can't actually make the centers work beyond this season.

 

Sometimes you just have to sign the player and figure it out later. If it comes down to Buchnevich needs to go when or IF you have to pay his competition on the roster, then... You trade him. At that price he's still an asset. He's not getting any kind of NTC, so that's not a worry. I think he will live up to what ever contract he gets, because he's still improving.

 

Sure, and this is not one of those situations, because you know what's worth more in a trade than a 28 year old UFA? A 26 year old RFA coming off a near point-per-game season. If your endgame is trade him, get your ass to endgame now, because he's literally never going to be a better trade asset than he is right this moment.

[Ozzy]

On a good note, I just wanted to announce that my balls have stopped itching this past week. I believe that signifies we will be without DiGuiseppe going forward.

 

Thank you.

 

This advertisement has been brought to you by the letters B Y and E

[LindG1000]

To keep hammering this point home; Shayna Goldman's put together an article collecting the contract projection data to better understand what our cap space is going to look like as we move forward this offseason.

 

Some snippets:

 

And Lindgren’s deal, according to The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn’s model, was well below his market value of $5.6 million:

 

Evolving-Hockey’s model for salary projections has the contract closer to what’s expected. That site has a three-year deal to be worth $2.9 in cap space per season, though it put the highest probability for Lindgren being a longer deal: five years at $3.94 million on average.

 

Lindgren signing good.

 

Luszczyszyn puts Buchnevich’s market value at $6.3 million on average over seven years, but market value refers to a player hitting the open market, which he can’t as a restricted free agent.

 

Evolving-Hockey’s projection isn’t far off that number; its model gives a five-year contract with a $6.34 million cap hit a 34 percent probability. The next highest probability (24 percent) is a four-year deal at $6.31 million on average.

 

Given that this will be Buchnevich’s third contract and that he’s already played through a bridge deal, he’s more likely to sign a long-term contract. At 26, he’s in a better position to maximize his earnings with term now.

 

We may be underestimating Buchenvich's earning potential here.