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2018 Off-Season Thread: #TradeSzn


Phil

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risking to pay for performance in the future = buying UFA years instead of bridging

 

My preference is to pay more for a sure thing rather than pay more years and hope it ends up being good the last season.

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I dont think "bridge" was the issue with those contracts.

We overpay by 1-m for short contracts, and 1.5 - 2m on longer contracts. I don't see a correlation between bridge vs non.

 

Zuccarello might have the best contract and his went 2y, 1y, 1y, 4y

Kreider was bridged for 2years

Boyle was bridged.

Short contracts worked out when it came to Del Zotto, Prucha, Gilroy, Hagelin, Avery, Prust, etc

 

Bah, sounds like doctrine. Teams need to be able to scout their talent properly and make decent projections. Make good decisions, buy low when you can. Paying players till their 29 or 30 is much better than 28-34. PK Subban's bridge was one of many disasters.

 

Those other bridges didn't all work out. The Hags and Prust bridge deals were a disaster and they were 3rd and 4th liners.

 

How many high priced free agents league wide, worked out last year? How about the year before? Or before that?

 

Conversely, check out some of those contracts where UFA years were bought. They already look like bargain deals.

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I agree with Josh and ThirtyONE on this one. I get the argument, but based on past contracts handed out, I'm fine paying more in 2 years for a true #1/2. We'll have the cap space. The cost is more but the risk of a bad contract is far less. If we pay now you need to be confident it turns out like Morgan Reilly's deal, and I'm not convinced about that yet, hence my preference for a bridge.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

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Isn't that what you are proposing ?

 

Signing a 24 year old through 30 rather than a 26 year old though 34? No, not even close.

 

For a long time you were one of the only people who understood the difference between a bad player and a player having a bad season. Please don't lose that perspective. :)

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Signing a 24 year old through 30 rather than a 26 year old though 34? No, not even close.

 

For a long time you were one of the only people who understood the difference between a bad player and a player having a bad season. Please don't lose that perspective. :)

why the extra seasons?

 

I think he had a bad season, yes. But I'm also not as high on him as others think. I really do think this is a make-or-break year for him. He's either going to be a good #3 (his ceiling) or an overpaid 4/5 guy. The difference in cap hit could be 6.9 vs 4.

 

And same with Zibanejad, sure, good young players, potential... but you don't overpay a guy because the rest of your team sucks.

 

 

Honestly, I don't think they will bridge him. And I also think they'll overpay him.

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why the extra seasons?

 

I think he had a bad season, yes. But I'm also not as high on him as others think. I really do think this is a make-or-break year for him. He's either going to be a good #3 (his ceiling) or an overpaid 4/5 guy. The difference in cap hit could be 6.9 vs 4.

 

And same with Zibanejad, sure, good young players, potential... but you don't overpay a guy because the rest of your team sucks.

 

 

Honestly, I don't think they will bridge him. And I also think they'll overpay him.

If he's a good #3 it's because you signed a stud #1 and Shatty is on the right side.
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I dont see him turning into a "good" 1 or 2.

And if he does, I dont mind paying him in 2 seasons.

 

He's another middle-tier player that will get paid like he's more. I've been saying all summer we have to be careful with these. They are about to repeat what we say with the last 2 core.

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Signing a 24 year old through 30 rather than a 26 year old though 34? No, not even close.

 

For a long time you were one of the only people who understood the difference between a bad player and a player having a bad season. Please don't lose that perspective. :)

 

Who are the others capable of understanding?

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why the extra seasons?

 

I think he had a bad season, yes. But I'm also not as high on him as others think. I really do think this is a make-or-break year for him. He's either going to be a good #3 (his ceiling) or an overpaid 4/5 guy. The difference in cap hit could be 6.9 vs 4.

 

And same with Zibanejad, sure, good young players, potential... but you don't overpay a guy because the rest of your team sucks.

 

 

Honestly, I don't think they will bridge him. And I also think they'll overpay him.

If he's a good #3 it's because you signed a stud #1 and Shatty is on the right side.
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If he's a good #3 it's because you signed a stud #1 and Shatty is on the right side.

 

He might be forced to play on the top line the next season or so, but he’s not a 1 or 2, and he shouldn’t be paid like it unless he plays like it.

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Signing a 24 year old through 30 rather than a 26 year old though 34? No, not even close.

 

For a long time you were one of the only people who understood the difference between a bad player and a player having a bad season. Please don't lose that perspective. :)

 

Would you rather sign a 26 through 34 year old or resigning a 30 year old to big money?

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Would you rather sign a 26 through 34 year old or resigning a 30 year old to big money?

 

Why would we have to resign him? Pipeline, baby. In 6 years one of the D we drafted last year or this year or next year will slot up.

 

Same thing we did with McD, really.

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Typical good performing UFA usually around 27, maybe 28 usually seeks that 7-8 year contract with bidding war.

 

Typical good RFA anywhere from 23-25 y/o and gets lesser $ and 4-6 years. No bidders.

 

Which longer term contract would you rather your team sign. How have fans and GMs not learned this?

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I agree with Josh and ThirtyONE on this one. I get the argument, but based on past contracts handed out, I'm fine paying more in 2 years for a true #1/2. We'll have the cap space. The cost is more but the risk of a bad contract is far less. If we pay now you need to be confident it turns out like Morgan Reilly's deal, and I'm not convinced about that yet, hence my preference for a bridge.

 

What you and Josh and others are missing is it is not just the money. It is the term and when the term starts. A real #1/#2 UFA will want 8 years from us and that starts 2 years later because of your bridge deal. So 10 years and because of bidders, a much higher AAV. You also now have the player for alll those declining years in the 30's and more injury risk.

 

RFA is gonna be 6 years at most, likely 5. Contract is reasonable and all prime years, thus easy to trade.

 

You mentioned Reilly, but man was Hamonic sought after. What about the bargains on Ryan Ellis or Roman Josi? McD was a bargain and we were off the hook just as his game dips. There are so many examples and these are the most tradeable players in the league.

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why the extra seasons?

 

I think he had a bad season, yes. But I'm also not as high on him as others think. I really do think this is a make-or-break year for him. He's either going to be a good #3 (his ceiling) or an overpaid 4/5 guy. The difference in cap hit could be 6.9 vs 4.

 

Yeah we are not talking apples to apples. I'm in the bad year camp because we saw his skills on full display for his partial rookie year and his first full year. Skills and attributes like puck handling, passing, can go coast-to-coast, quick first step, gap control, knows his angles, good using leverage in front, speed, anticipation, strength, size and good offensive instinct.

 

You are not seeing or remembering the potential I am. Sometimes guys make mistakes, have a tough stretch. Not unusual that a very bad team, broken/no D system and a weak D partner exacerbates the mistakes. No one defending looks good.

 

Skjei was solid enough to be drafted in the 1st. He progressed consistently and quickly before joining the Rangers. If we sign him for 5 years at 4.8 to 5 mil is that a big overpay to you?

 

And same with Zibanejad, sure, good young players, potential... but you don't overpay a guy because the rest of your team sucks.

No one said to overpay Skjei or Zib because the rest of the team sucks. And Zibs contract will be fine if he keeps his head.

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Great year (as a third pair)

Horrible season (as a 2nd pair, worse on the top pair)

 

I think he’ll be somewhere between, and I hope he turns into a good #3 dman. But we don’t know yet. Which is why I don’t want to pay yet.

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