Flynn Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 The Athletic has chimed in with the predictable Florida lovefest based on the model. I was thrilled to see they have the Rangers at a 35% chance to win the ECF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooksBurner Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 7 minutes ago, Flynn said: The Athletic has chimed in with the predictable Florida lovefest based on the model. I was thrilled to see they have the Rangers at a 35% chance to win the ECF. Sounds right to me. 35% ain’t nothing though. Ask Carolina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsm7302 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 7 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said: Sounds right to me. 35% ain’t nothing though. Ask Carolina. I love it. The metrics say they suck 5v5. They only have a goaltender and Adam Fox to pull them through. They don't match up well against Carolina/Florida. POUR IT ON BECAUSE WHAT THEY ALL SAW IN GAME 6 IS AN APPETIZER!!! LETS GO RANGERSSSS!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lefty9 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Is he worse than Andersen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravesy Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 I don't think we need to do the analytics thing all over again. An analytical model looking at who would win most of the time of you played the games a 1000 times (which I think is what Dom's model does) will very obviously favor the team that dominates possession, o-zone time and shots. That's hardly surprising. There's really no need to spend calories being upset about it. Apart from maybe the fact they're pretending it's actually worthwhile using that model to predict a 7 game series, when as statisticians they obviously know full well that it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichieNextel305 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Seems like Chytil is good to go. He was also on the 2nd Power Play unit at practice today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 (edited) 2 hours ago, Pete said: I might have to challenge this one a little bit homie. Florida is giving up the least amount of shots in the playoffs while also among the least amount of block shots. That says they play a stifling, swarming style. Which they need to, because their goalie stinks. We'll see, Pete. I never liked playing Carolina. I think their forecheck is what keeps them in games. Lord knows they don't have the scoring Florida does, but I like our chances against the Cats. Boston wasn't the "Boston" of last season without Bergeron and Kreichi, but a great job by them putting the B's on the shelf. I think our D might have an extra second to make a play back there, instead of being swarmed by pesky gnats, like with the Canes. That being said...Bob can be had! Edited May 20 by Ozzy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albatrosss Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 10 minutes ago, RichieNextel305 said: Seems like Chytil is good to go. He was also on the 2nd Power Play unit at practice today. why is wennberg centering the third line still? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichieNextel305 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Albatrosss said: why is wennberg centering the third line still? Who else would? They said they don’t want Chytil playing center right now anyway. Edited May 20 by RichieNextel305 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albatrosss Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Just now, RichieNextel305 said: Who else would? They said they don’t want Chytil playing center right now anyway. i was hoping Chytil would. Wennberg is a black hole offensively and you need your bottom lines to contribute if we're going to beat Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsm7302 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 6 minutes ago, Albatrosss said: i was hoping Chytil would. Wennberg is a black hole offensively and you need your bottom lines to contribute if we're going to beat Florida. Same. Brodzinski could be equally effective in that 3c role. In fact, Id give him a look with the offensive minded Chytil and see if they can connect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsm7302 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 10 minutes ago, RichieNextel305 said: Who else would? They said they don’t want Chytil playing center right now anyway. Wennberg's numbers through out his career are not good. He is not going to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomas Sandstrom Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Chytil and Kakko have some positive history (Kid line). That was with Lafreniere, who is obviously a very talented offensive player. But still...hope they can generate some offense with Wennberg, who isn't an awful offensive player. Just need a little more offense out of this 3rd line...1 or 2 key goals in the series would be a huge help to the effort. We've seen the 4th line contribute offensively, so not as worried about them chipping in. If he's healthy, Chytil should be able to help generate some offense once he gets his timing and legs back under him...hope the ramp up time isn't too long, as this is a series where we will need all the offensive help we can get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichieNextel305 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 25 minutes ago, jsm7302 said: Wennberg's numbers through out his career are not good. He is not going to produce. But again, Chytil isn’t playing center. Laviolette already said this and that he and the organization decided he’s best off health wise at wing. So if Chytil isn’t, who is replacing Wennberg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsm7302 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 1 minute ago, RichieNextel305 said: But again, Chytil isn’t playing center. Laviolette already said this and that he and the organization decided he’s best off health wise at wing. So if Chytil isn’t, who is replacing Wennberg? It won't be popular but we saw Brodzinski produce with offensive minded players earlier in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Br4d Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 3 hours ago, Flynn said: The Athletic has chimed in with the predictable Florida lovefest based on the model. I was thrilled to see they have the Rangers at a 35% chance to win the ECF. This is a ridiculous model though. No team wins 55 games and the President's Trophy and then has a healthy 35% shot to beat any other team in the tournament. The Athletic should be embarrassed that they printed the article. They should be beyond embarrassed. They should be looking at their staff and figuring out who needs to go because this pathetic model made it into print. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 1 hour ago, Br4d said: This is a ridiculous model though. No team wins 55 games and the President's Trophy and then has a healthy 35% shot to beat any other team in the tournament. The Athletic should be embarrassed that they printed the article. They should be beyond embarrassed. They should be looking at their staff and figuring out who needs to go because this pathetic model made it into print. While the model is flawed, what's actually ridiculous is that it ignores actual results. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooksBurner Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 I don’t get this chart TheAthletic posted. Looks to me like offense should be rated fairly close with a pretty big difference defensively in Florida’s favor, yet the ratings are the other way around. Either there’s more to the story or this chart is incorrect based on the data presented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 7 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said: I don’t get this chart TheAthletic posted. Looks to me like offense should be rated fairly close with a pretty big difference defensively in Florida’s favor, yet the ratings are the other way around. Either there’s more to the story or this chart is incorrect based on the data presented. Is this just for the playoffs? Clearly they give outsized value to Corsi and XGF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Heaven Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 8 hours ago, Flynn said: The Athletic has chimed in with the predictable Florida lovefest based on the model. I was thrilled to see they have the Rangers at a 35% chance to win the ECF. Geez, the Panthers have a higher percentage of winning the series in 5 games than the Rangers have winning in 4, 5, 6, or 7 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Br4d Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 19 minutes ago, Blue Heaven said: Geez, the Panthers have a higher percentage of winning the series in 5 games than the Rangers have winning in 4, 5, 6, or 7 games. I'm just looking forward to another tight game 1 win for the Rangers and all the metrics suddenly looking flawed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art20c Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 I do not know much about analytical models but I’m assuming offense rating and defense rating combined gives us a net rating, ie 18 offense plus 24 defense equals net 42 rating for the rangers. But if I apply same logic to Florida net rating something is fucked up tnere. 59 plus 22 does not add up to net rating of 80. Ether it is me who don’t know shit or athletics who can’t put two and two together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooksBurner Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 2 hours ago, Pete said: Is this just for the playoffs? Clearly they give outsized value to Corsi and XGF. The data is sourced from evolving hockey and the numbers don’t match regular season or playoffs exclusively. It could be a mashup of both together to represent a total picture. Who knows. xGA and GA disparity are both larger and in favor of the Panthers. Corsi disparity almost the same. Meanwhile xGF, while still largeish, is less of a gap and the Rangers have a slightly higher GF. The way the chart is broken down simply makes no sense. With that said, I agree with their end result of probabilities. Just not how they supposedly got there with that chart if there isn’t a typo. The Panthers are a superior defensive team, but the offense is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 10 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said: The data is sourced from evolving hockey and the numbers don’t match regular season or playoffs exclusively. It could be a mashup of both together to represent a total picture. Who knows. xGA and GA disparity are both larger and in favor of the Panthers. Corsi disparity almost the same. Meanwhile xGF, while still largeish, is less of a gap and the Rangers have a slightly higher GF. The way the chart is broken down simply makes no sense. With that said, I agree with their end result of probabilities. Just not how they supposedly got there with that chart if there isn’t a typo. The Panthers are a superior defensive team, but the offense is close. They're goaltending stinks and anything that gives the Rangers only 35% chance of winning is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddious Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 2 minutes ago, Pete said: They're goaltending stinks and anything that gives the Rangers only 35% chance of winning is ridiculous. Bobs such an enigma though you never know when he’s gonna be the best player ever or a shit show advanced stats are for nerds -Wayne gretzky fuck em we will win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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