Ima Say it... Trade Shesterkin?

[siddious]

24 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Theres free agency.  There's trade route. There's getting someone lesser back in the trade for Shesterkin.  I'm not sure it's that big of a hurdle. 

 

I can think of a few young goalies who could want out of a shitty situation. Wolf in Calgary comes to mind. Skinner in Edmonton would have no purpose if they got Shesterkin. Gibson has stated his displeasure in Anaheim... There's a bunch of "Ok" guys available in UFA this summer like Talbot, Fleury, Raanta and some other younger guys. Then theres better guys the year after. It's not like there's nothing out there in the time-frame. 

Like I said I think we’ve been spoiled by how many good goalies we have had. There’s very rarely a #1 goalie on the trade market or free agency. 
 

im not saying it’s impossible but highly unlikely.

[mbob]

Not happening this season, and way too early to envision what numbers look like especially with his current season.  
 

There are some great stat guys in here, anyone know of some goalies that were unstoppable early and fizzled out way too soon?  I wanted to say Ron Hextall until I looked at his career save % that always was the same and not the greatest. 

[Br4d]

Shesterkin is the best goalie in the NHL right now.  He's not playing like it this year but on a reasonable contract there is nobody you'd want over him.

 

The contract is the stumbling block because somebody out there is going to pay him like the best goalie in the NHL when he is free and clear.

 

There is an argument for trading him this year because he likely has his best trade value this year, to a contender having issues in goal.

[Br4d]

1 hour ago, mbob said:

Not happening this season, and way too early to envision what numbers look like especially with his current season.  
 

There are some great stat guys in here, anyone know of some goalies that were unstoppable early and fizzled out way too soon?  I wanted to say Ron Hextall until I looked at his career save % that always was the same and not the greatest. 

 

Eddie Giacomin.  Had 5 great years and then leveled off to an average goal tender.

[Pete]

Happens a lot. The book on him is out. Glove hand can be had.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Pete

[phillyb]

At the draft? There’s an argument to be made but only because of what his next contract will be. 
What’s coming back? 
Who plays net next year?

 

I don’t think NYR trades Shesterkin and I think they give him his next contract. 
 

We say thank you because we don’t have to watch a franchise without a starting goalie like some other fanbases have had to deal with. 

[Br4d]

You trade Igor to get a star player in return and by star I mean top 20 in the NHL right now.

 

Secondarily you trade Igor if you are not going to give him the next contract and you get back the best possible value in that circumstance.

 

However trading him early for a star is probably the way to go.  This assuming you're not going to outbid people for him in 2 years when he comes due.

[Pete]

33 minutes ago, Br4d said:

You trade Igor to get a star player in return and by star I mean top 20 in the NHL right now.

 

Secondarily you trade Igor if you are not going to give him the next contract and you get back the best possible value in that circumstance.

 

However trading him early for a star is probably the way to go.  This assuming you're not going to outbid people for him in 2 years when he comes due.

When is the last time a goalie got traded for a star player mid season?

 

2008.

 

Quote

The Stars included (Mike) Smith in a package that also featured Jussi Jokinen, Jeff Halpern and a pick to pry Brad Richards and Johan Holmqvist away from the Lightning.

 

Simply put, goalies are and traded for position players, especially mid-season. You know why nobody trades for goalies? Because there's no value there. 

 

[Br4d]

12 minutes ago, Pete said:

When is the last time a goalie got traded for a star player mid season?

 

2008.

 

 

Simply put, goalies are and traded for position players, especially mid-season. You know why nobody trades for goalies? Because there's no value there. 

 

 

There's value if you are a contender and you do not have the goalie you want for any reason.  Could be injury, could be down season, could just be the guys you have are known quantities at a level below what you need.

[Pete]

2 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

There's value if you are a contender and you do not have the goalie you want for any reason.  Could be injury, could be down season, could just be the guys you have are known quantities at a level below what you need.

Dude, I just went back and showed you when a goalie was ever traded for the value you're suggesting. It doesn't happen. Hard stop. 

[Cash or Czech]

On 12/16/2023 at 8:42 AM, The Dude said:

I'd think goalies don't get great returns on walk years as rentals. When was the last time a top goalie actually traded anyway? Roy? Seems like it hardly ever happens. 

 

I'm just thinking ahead. I don't think he'll be a Ranger on his next contract. I'd rather not let him walk for nothing.  I'd think his max value is this season as opposed to next as a rental.  

 

But youre right... I guess it depends on how he and the team finish this year to determine what they want to do moving forward.  

 

 

Notable goalie trades the past few years:

 

Darcy Kuemper fetched a 1st, a conditional 3rd, and a throw-in roster player.

Bobrovsky was traded from Philly to Columbus for a 2nd and two 4ths

Georgiev fetched two 3rds and a 5th for us from Colorado

New Jersey moved a 2nd and a 3rd for Vanacek and a 2nd

Detroit acquired Ville Husso for a 3rd

The Leafs got Freddie Andersen for a 1st and 2nd

 

None of these returns are worth it to me, even if Igor is better and warrants a better return.

[Pete]

2 minutes ago, Cash or Czech said:

 

Notable goalie trades the past few years:

 

Darcy Kuemper fetched a 1st, a conditional 3rd, and a throw-in roster player.

Bobrovsky was traded from Philly to Columbus for a 2nd and two 4ths

Georgiev fetched two 3rds and a 5th for us from Colorado

New Jersey moved a 2nd and a 3rd for Vanacek and a 2nd

Detroit acquired Ville Husso for a 3rd

The Leafs got Freddie Andersen for a 1st and 2nd

 

None of these returns are worth it to me, even if Igor is better and warrants a better return.

Exactly. Now do it again with mid-season trades, and do it again where a star position player goes the other way. 

[Br4d]

2 minutes ago, Cash or Czech said:

 

Notable goalie trades the past few years:

 

Darcy Kuemper fetched a 1st, a conditional 3rd, and a throw-in roster player.

Bobrovsky was traded from Philly to Columbus for a 2nd and two 4ths

Georgiev fetched two 3rds and a 5th for us from Colorado

New Jersey moved a 2nd and a 3rd for Vanacek and a 2nd

Detroit acquired Ville Husso for a 3rd

The Leafs got Freddie Andersen for a 1st and 2nd

 

None of these returns are worth it to me, even if Igor is better and warrants a better return.

 

Igor is the best goalie in the NHL.  Maybe Swayman is similar.

 

Probably the best return would be in the Western Conference to one of those gallivanting rosters that rushes up and down the ice every game and helps their goalie scoop the puck out of their own net too often as a result.  Igor is one of the few goalies that might turn into a huge plus in that situation.

[Pete]

3 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

Igor is the best goalie in the NHL.  Maybe Swayman is similar.

 

Probably the best return would be in the Western Conference to one of those gallivanting rosters that rushes up and down the ice every game and helps their goalie scoop the puck out of their own net too often as a result.  Igor is one of the few goalies that might turn into a huge plus in that situation.

Sorokin would like a word. 

[4EverRangerFrank]

Maybe we’re barking up the wrong tree. How can we want to rid ourselves of what is arguably a very enviable situation - we have an elite goalie - who has come down to earth harder and more often than we are used to but still expect another dance partner to look past the obvious and give us a huge return? What? Seriously?

 

Are you willing to watch Igor soar elsewhere? Stone us when we play against him? You know he will! Have him beat us in a Cup final?

 

So, the money part. Cap going up helps. Does he want to play his best years in EDM or TOR? I’m only guessing but I think we can get him to stay a Ranger at just under market rate. If he needs every cent then by all means GTFO. 
 

I’m in the lonesome camp of wanting him here. Because I think he’ll return to form. The glove is a problem. Benoit Balls has a job to do with that. I’m not eager to see him help another team beat us. If getting Igor shows McDavid that ‘they’re committed to winning’ then by trading him, WTF did we just do to ourselves?
 

 

 

 

 

 

[Sharpshooter]

I'm glad Rangers fans don't overreact or anything. 

[Phil]

On 12/16/2023 at 8:16 AM, The Dude said:

He's getting 9 minimum. He can be average the rest of the year and probably next and still get 9. A desperate team that has suffered through years of crap goaltending is waiting for such a player to hit free agency. Edmonton and Toronto are definitely players for him when he hits the market. If they don't have cap space, they will make it. The cap rising will help those teams get to where they want to be. 

 

They need a top 6 center though. I don't think they can rely on Chytil very much. Either way. Top 6 C or Rw could be had. Easily. 

 

They have a top-six center. Two, in fact. Trocheck is on a PDO-fueled bender this season, but even at his career average, he's a quality enough second-line center who is guaranteed to play with high-end level players who will likely inflate his totals (like Strome). What they need is a dependable third line center, because I agree, they can't rely on Chytil. Four concussions, at least, before the age of 25 is extremely worrying.

 

Quote

Why wouldn't it work like this... At all?

 

Quote

Shesterkin is a 9-12 million dollar goalie for someone. That's why you trade him before he walks in FA. I don't want to pay him more than Hellebuyck.  He'll get it from someone. That's the point. The goalie market has been set by the Islanders and Jets. He'll want what we as fans don't want to pay him. That's top goalie money. 

 

Because it imbalances any team who tries it. What team is sitting around in desperate need of a 1G who also has an NHL-level second-line center that they can afford to trade for that goalie that wouldn't immediately screw up the balance of their team? Look at almost any goalie trade in history, especially one for a star-level starter — they never happen in-season and they almost never happen for players:

 

Hasek went for another goalie and a prospect.

Roy went for a goalie (Thibault), Martin Ručinský and Andrei Kovalenko

Rask was traded at the draft for a goalie (Raycroft).

Schneider was traded at the draft for the ninth overall pick.

Luongo went for a goalie (Alex Auld) and Bryan Allen.

 

Noticing the trend? Any Shesterkin trade is goalie-for-goalie, salted and peppered to taste. Which is why it's so unlikely to happen. What's far more likely is they ride his deal out and maybe trade his rights at the draft to a team looking to sign him long-term ahead of free agency.

 

[Phil]

15 hours ago, Br4d said:

 

Igor is the best goalie in the NHL.  Maybe Swayman is similar.

 

Probably the best return would be in the Western Conference to one of those gallivanting rosters that rushes up and down the ice every game and helps their goalie scoop the puck out of their own net too often as a result.  Igor is one of the few goalies that might turn into a huge plus in that situation.

 

Igor was the best goalie in the NHL. He hasn't been in two years. Each year since his Vezina year has been slightly but progressively worse:

 

2021-22: .935, 2.07 GAA, 6 SO
2022-23: .916, 2.48 GAA, 3 SO
2023-24: .904, 2.91 GAA, 0 SO

[Sharpshooter]

Hard to replicate that Vezina year. That was an all time goalie type of season. His biggest thing since then has just been lack of consistency. He needs to find that again. You could still make the case he's a top five goalie regardless, but to be truly seen as elite again, he has to be more consistent. There's a mental block there sometimes.

[Phil]

Impossible to replicate the Vezina year, I'd say, but my larger point is that there's a pattern in place since that shows a slow but steady regression. He' s a career .922 because of the Vezina year and the shortened rookie season where he went .932 in 12 games. I know it's a little improper to do this, but if you take those out of the equation, he's a .912 goalie, which feels closer to who he actually is.

[Sharpshooter]

Yeah, he's like a .920 type of guy, which is fine. Offense is up around the league and there are some pretty rough goaltending numbers this season, so if he can be around there, I'll take it.

[Phil]

Somewhere between .912 and .922? Sure. Good starter numbers. But that's not the issue here; his next deal is. I have absolutely no desire to pay a 28– or 29-year old starting goalie more than $7 million a season. Ever. For anyone. It's just not prudent.

 

The league has shown us repeatedly that not only do you not need to do this to win, but that doing it actively works against your ability to win. Goalies can't win games. They can only keep you in games long enough for difference-makers to win them, and when you pay a goalie like one of those difference-makers, you handicap your own ability to equip your team with enough of them to make right by it.

[Sharpshooter]

Next season will be big for him. See how he performs in a big time contract year for him. It might not matter anyway. If he has a great year (or even just good), he's probably going to want 8 million or something. I can't see them doing that considering their cap situation and all. They'll have some more room with that, but it's still a huge investment. If Garand is looking good by then, and ready to go, you can just go with him. I think he's an up and comer and he'll be pretty cheap for awhile.

[Ozzy]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Somewhere between .912 and .922? Sure. Good starter numbers. But that's not the issue here; his next deal is. I have absolutely no desire to pay a 28– or 29-year old starting goalie more than $7 million a season. Ever. For anyone. It's just not prudent.

 

The league has shown us repeatedly that not only do you not need to do this to win, but that doing it actively works against your ability to win. Goalies can't win games. They can only keep you in games long enough for difference-makers to win them, and when you pay a goalie like one of those difference-makers, you handicap your own ability to equip your team with enough of them to make right by it.

 

As much as I'm going to hate the day he ends up going, this is pretty much dead on the money, Phil.

 

This is the same path we went down with Hank, and I think Drury being a part of that, would kinda remember it very well.  At least we have some time left with him, and the window to win is open.  We have 2 kicks at the can with him, and hopefully we can notch a Cup.  That would make it a little easier to say goodbye for me, when that time comes.

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, Sharpshooter said:

Next season will be big for him. See how he performs in a big time contract year for him. It might not matter anyway. If he has a great year (or even just good), he's probably going to want 8 million or something. I can't see them doing that considering their cap situation and all. They'll have some more room with that, but it's still a huge investment. If Garand is looking good by then, and ready to go, you can just go with him. I think he's an up and comer and he'll be pretty cheap for awhile.

 

Even if he isn't (Garand), I'm still not interested in paying him that. The reason he's so valuable right now is because he makes under $6 million annually. When he makes $8, $9 million per, he's hurting more than he's helping.

 

I'd just as soon sign Quick or insert veteran goalie here to a one- or two-year stop gap deal and roll the dice.