How Not to Rebuild: NYR Edition

[BrooksBurner]

The lack of premium offensive opportunity for the kids, in favor of asking them to first be responsible defensive players on a winning team, would be easily absorbed if the team as a whole played sound defensive hockey and winning as a result. If the team was doing that, it would feel the kids are legitimately contributing towards something real and positive. I also think that is a fine approach from a team building perspective. While I think the kids with the kind of pedigree they had should have been able to be more impactful offensively regardless, right now this approach is akin to the team asking them to focus on cleaning their bedrooms while there is a sinkhole under the house and the roof is leaking. It makes the approach look really bad, when in theory it was not if it was done correctly.

[jsm7302]

Laf-Zib-Krav

Panarin-Chytil-Kakko

Kreider-Trochek-Vesey

Anyone who can skate backwards!!

 

WE need to maximize and help grow our roster with the up and comers.

Edited December 5, 2022 by jsm7302

[Costa]

21 hours ago, Sod16 said:

CK is on pace to score about 39 goals this year.  If he continues to score over 25 for the next few years, his contract will be a bargain.  Move on Kreider haters.

If this franchise is smart (long pause) CK20 & Trouba for that matter will be gone by summer 2024.

[BrooksBurner]

Trouba, yes. Albatross contract. But Kreider? Unless he is unhappy, or has resentment about not being named Captain, or whatever, I find trading him to be a very poor idea. 50 goals last year. Pacing 38 goals this year. Leads the team in even strength goals. For $6.5M a year you don’t trade that. The combination of his contract and production are at the bottom of the list of being a problem.

 

I would trade Panarin well before Kreider if they were hell bent on trading a left winger to open it up for Lafreniere and Othmann. Make@cupalife ‘s day.

[mbob]

3 hours ago, jsm7302 said:

Laf-Zib-Krav

Panarin-Chytil-Kakko

Kreider-Trochek-Vesey

Anyone who can skate backwards!!

 

WE need to maximize and help grow our roster with the up and comers.

 

I'd flip Kakko and Krav

[fletch]

23 hours ago, Bugg said:

Go back to game 3 vs. TBL; had a 2-0 lead, and a chance to go up 3-0 on the champions. Not sure they ever recovered from that in their heads. Now that doesn't mean they were a lock to beat the Avs, in fact far from it. But who knows with an all world goalie?

 

That's the hangover. You get thisclose, and then how do you get back? It isn't resting on the fact that you got there, it's understanding the committment required every game to make getting back a possibility. Keep in mind, injuries and bad luck can derail things, but that's less likely if there's structure. 

 

Now good franchises know how to build on that. But the way M$G operates is any success is grounds for a parade rather than  step on a long road. Mika bobblehead night for 5 goal game in a garbage season is one example that stands out. It's nice, but it didn't get you closer to the ultimate goal. What Drury has to  address is a mindset that doesn't appreciate the big picture. There's an institutional softness around this franchise. Every postgame comment spare Trouba Saturday sounds like total drivel. You gotta play better; no fuckin' kidding. Are we gonna hear the same shit later tonight again? 

 

And about structure; offensively the constant overpassing and perimeter shit has to stop. It hasn't been addressed since Quinn. Nobody goes to the net. You cannot have your best players being the greatest offenders either. Defensively, there has to be more structure. They keep blowing leads because nobody knows what the hell to do with the puck other than make a panicky pass to nobody. 

I have a hard time replaying series what-ifs.   Game 4-6, in my mind, the Lightning had a little more in the tank, the Rangers were just worn down.  Sure, if the Rangers won game 3, they could have 'upset' (in my mind) the defending champions.  Or, the Lightning could have devastatingly won games 4-7.

 

If we're going to replay series what-ifs, I'm replaying the 2014 Stanley Cup Finals.  Lundqvist-led Rangers lose games 1,2,5 in OT.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Stanley_Cup_Finals

 

How does the series change if the Rangers win game 1 or 2 (or both in LA)?  Rangers would have a much better outlook heading to Game 3,4 in MSG.

 

If OT is roughly 50-50 proposition (see my previous post on OT skill versus luck), here are the odds of each possibility (0 wins, 1 win, 2 wins, 3 wins).

0 wins = 0.125

1 win = 0.25

2 wins = 0.25

3 wins = 0.125

 

Edit, the math on 1 wins and 2 wins incorrect, redoing now, as probabilities do not sum to 1

Probability that exactly one of three events happens (for 1 win):

https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/probability-three-events

P(A ∩ B' ∩ C') + P(A' ∩ B ∩ C') + P(A' ∩ B' ∩ C);

0 wins = 0.125

1 win = 0.375

2 wins =0.375

3 wins = 0.125

 

Probability of events:

P(A) =0.5

P(B) = 0.5

P(C) = 0.5

Probability of:

All three occurring 12.5%

At least one occurring 87.5 %

Exactly one occurring 37.5%

None of them occurring 12.5%

 

Here's fancy math calculators if you want to play with probability of two or three events, without doing the math. 

https://www.calculator.net/probability-calculator.html

https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/probability-three-events

I used the brute math calculations based on each event 0.5 probability of win, loss.  For two events, if the probability of a win for one team is 0.4, the probability of that team winning 2 games is 0.16 (0.4 * 0.4), probability of winning 1 game is 0.48 (2 * 0.4 * 0.6), probability of winning 0 games is 0.36 (0.6 * 0.6).

 

Probability calculations assume events are independent.  The results of Game 2 would have to be independent of game 1.  If not independent, you're entering the world of simulations.

 

And, there is the Lundqvist OT factor, in his playoff career, the Rangers lost more than they won. Yes, Lundqvist is one of the NHL great goalies, performed admirably under pressure, and occasionally let in a soft goal.  

https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/which-nhl-goalie-has-the-most-overtime-losses-in-career

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/eaa77v/the_playoff_ot_record_of_every_nhl_goalie_in/

 

I have a hard time replaying series what-ifs, so I'm not capable of doing a what-if of Lundqvist's career.  The excellence over a 887 game career speaks for itself.

Edited December 6, 2022 by fletch
math error

[Bugg]

12 minutes ago, fletch said:

I have a hard time replaying series what-ifs.   Game 4-6, in my mind, the Lightning had a little more in the tank, the Rangers were just worn down.  Sure, if the Rangers won game 3, they could have 'upset' (in my mind) the defending champions.  Or, the Lightning could have devastatingly won games 4-7.

 

If we're going to replay series what-ifs, I'm replaying the 2014 Stanley Cup Finals.  Lundqvist-led Rangers lose games 1,2,5 in OT.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Stanley_Cup_Finals

 

How does the series change if the Rangers win game 1 or 2 (or both in LA)?  Rangers would have a much better outlook heading to Game 3,4 in MSG.

 

If OT is roughly 50-50 proposition (see my previous post on OT skill versus luck), here are the odds of each possibility (0 wins, 1 win, 2 wins, 3 wins).

0 wins = 0.125

1 win = 0.25

2 wins = 0.25

3 wins = 0.125

 

Here's fancy math calculators if you want to play with probability of two or three events, without doing the math. 

https://www.calculator.net/probability-calculator.html

https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/probability-three-events

I used the brute math calculations based on each event 0.5 probability of win, loss.  For two events, if the probability of a win for one team is 0.4, the probability of that team winning 2 games is 0.16 (0.4 * 0.4), probability of winning 1 game is 0.48 (2 * 0.4 * 0.6), probability of winning 0 games is 0.36 (0.6 * 0.6).

 

Probability calculations assume events are independent.  The results of Game 2 would have to be independent of game 1.  If not independent, you're entering the world of simulations.

 

And, there is the Lundqvist OT factor, in his playoff career, the Rangers lost more than they won. Yes, Lundqvist is one of the NHL great goalies, performed admirably under pressure, and occasionally let in a soft goal.  

https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/which-nhl-goalie-has-the-most-overtime-losses-in-career

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/eaa77v/the_playoff_ot_record_of_every_nhl_goalie_in/

 

I have a hard time replaying series what-ifs, so I'm not capable of doing a what-if of Lundqvist's career.  The excellence over a 887 game career speaks for itself.

Thank you. May be less what ifs than mentally the team hasn't been anywhere near the same since that point. 

[jsm7302]

16 hours ago, mbob said:

 

I'd flip Kakko and Krav

This aged well! Cheers!

[Pete]

20 hours ago, rmc51 said:

The lack of premium offensive opportunity for the kids, in favor of asking them to first be responsible defensive players on a winning team, would be easily absorbed if the team as a whole played sound defensive hockey and winning as a result. If the team was doing that, it would feel the kids are legitimately contributing towards something real and positive. I also think that is a fine approach from a team building perspective. While I think the kids with the kind of pedigree they had should have been able to be more impactful offensively regardless, right now this approach is akin to the team asking them to focus on cleaning their bedrooms while there is a sinkhole under the house and the roof is leaking. It makes the approach look really bad, when in theory it was not if it was done correctly.

I don't completely disagree but to extend your metaphor a bit, many top picks are asked to clean their bedroom and fix the sinkhole under the house and fix the roof... They come into much crappier situations and have to go up against much tougher defensive players and they perform.

 

We're asking our kids to do one thing, clean the room. They're not even really good at doing that. Can you imagine if we needed them to fix an entire house?

[BrooksBurner]

21 minutes ago, Pete said:

I don't completely disagree but to extend your metaphor a bit, many top picks are asked to clean their bedroom and fix the sinkhole under the house and fix the roof... They come into much crappier situations and have to go up against much tougher defensive players and they perform.

 

We're asking our kids to do one thing, clean the room. They're not even really good at doing that. Can you imagine if we needed them to fix an entire house?

All fair. It’s gotta be hard to focus on cleaning your room when there’s more significant problems is kind of my point too. Nobody else is cleaning their rooms, and they sure aren’t fixing anything else. The whole thing just smells with enough blame for everyone.

[jsm7302]

Putting Kakko and Laf on the top line and telling them. Learn to score and score often will prove beneficial. If they are going to learn one thing; make it beneficial to the team. Telling them to learn to be a defensive line with some upside is a lame way to develop the prospects who were supposed to be gifted offensively. The third line grooming should have been saved for Lias Anderson.

 

Anyways, you think this is a logjam problem now with developing prospects.....wait till next year when Othmann is knocking on the door. I have no idea how that will be handled.

[Cash or Czech]

Ignore the caption. Posting for solely the video.

[Br4d]

3 hours ago, jsm7302 said:

Putting Kakko and Laf on the top line and telling them. Learn to score and score often will prove beneficial. If they are going to learn one thing; make it beneficial to the team. Telling them to learn to be a defensive line with some upside is a lame way to develop the prospects who were supposed to be gifted offensively. The third line grooming should have been saved for Lias Anderson.

 

Anyways, you think this is a logjam problem now with developing prospects.....wait till next year when Othmann is knocking on the door. I have no idea how that will be handled.

 

Othman is going to see off either Panarin or Kreider.  It's a matter of economics because the Rangers really need to break the current cap framework into something more manageable.

[Pete]

If this team keeps Krieder over Panarin, I might stop watching.

[jsm7302]

15 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

Othman is going to see off either Panarin or Kreider.  It's a matter of economics because the Rangers really need to break the current cap framework into something more manageable.

Do either move to unprotected trade status next year?

[jsm7302]

I just looked it up. Kreider moves to a modified no trade in 24/25. I can't imagine they make Othmann wait ANOTHER year to make the big club. This will be interesting. Kreider isn't waiving early. No way.

[Pete]

1 minute ago, jsm7302 said:

I just looked it up. Kreider moves to a modified no trade in 24/25. I can't imagine they make Othmann wait ANOTHER year to make the big club. This will be interesting. Kreider isn't waiving early. No way.

You never really know how people react to the news that the team would rather move on from you.

[jsm7302]

2 minutes ago, Pete said:

You never really know how people react to the news that the team would rather move on from you.

I only say it because of how long he has been here and his bromance with Zib. Maybe they could send him to Boston? Idk, i guess our fearless Little League Champ will have some decisions to make next summer.

[Pete]

Just now, jsm7302 said:

I only say it because of how long he has been here and his bromance with Zib. Maybe they could send him to Boston? Idk, i guess our fearless Little League Champ will have some decisions to make next summer.

Who knows if he wants to go to Boston, or who knows if he wants to go somewhere where there's no state tax. Maybe Nashville with McD? 

 

I don't think we should assume that he would want to play at home, not everybody does. 

[BrooksBurner]

32 minutes ago, Pete said:

If this team keeps Krieder over Panarin, I might stop watching.

 

Dollars per point tells a different story. Started at '20-21 because that's when Kreider's more expensive contract started, to keep things fair. Used 82 game averages for each season, so Cap / 82 game averaged pt total

 

Artemi Panarin

 

'20-21: $103,034

'21-22:  $110,884

'22-23: $127,943

 

Chris Krieder:

 

'20-21: $132,653

'21-22: $83,333

'22-23: $92,857

 

It's not close. Kreider gives you way more bang for your buck now. For some kind of reference, Connor McDavid is on pace for about $82k per point this year.

 

Now start to consider what Kreider means to the team versus Panarin. Career Ranger, and while maybe not the perfect leader or apparently a captain, he provides something. He also provides something the team needs more of, not less (net front presence, greasy goals, etc). Kreider + $5.1M of cap over Panarin is an easy call for me.

Edited December 6, 2022 by rmc51

[Pete]

6 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

 

Dollars per point tells a different story. Started at '20-21 because that's when Kreider's more expensive contract started, to keep things fair. Used 82 game averages for each season, so Cap / 82 game averaged pt total

 

Artemi Panarin

 

'20-21: $103,034

'21-22:  $110,884

'22-23: $127,943

 

Chris Krieder:

 

'20-21: $132,653

'21-22: $83,333

'22-23: $92,857

 

It's not close. Kreider gives you way more bang for your buck now. For some kind of reference, Connor McDavid is on pace for about $82k per point this year.

 

Now start to consider what Kreider means to the team versus Panarin. Career Ranger, and while maybe not the perfect leader or apparently a captain, he provides something. He also provides something the team needs more of, not less (net front presence, greasy goals, etc). Kreider + $5.1M of cap over Panarin is an easy call for me.

But Kreider can't do what Panarin does. Sorry, I've seen this team with a top scored of 60 points. Not here for it. Mika needs help.

 

Lafreniere can't do what Panarin does, but he can give you 60 points and 25 goals with PP time. Othmann can't do what Panarin does, but he can grow into what Kreider does.

 

It's not about value against the cap, Kreider is fairly paid, so is Panarin. it's about what can be done on the ice and I'm taking Panarin's skillset + Laf + Othmann over Kreider/Laf/Othmann.

 

I'm not willing to go back to being a team that has to work twice as hard as other teams to score.

[RJWantsTheCup]

If the Rangers can find a GM that believes like the fans that Lafraniere is still going to be a 40-50 goal scorer maybe they can trade him for the left defenseman and right wing they so badly need.

[Albatrosss]

signing a new toy in Panarin is why we lost point-per-game Buchnevitch with a cap hit of $5.8 (and probably could've been even less with a longer term), why we cant sign/trade for a decent LD, why Othmann is blocked and will probably end up in Hartford next year, why our bottom 6 is shit, and many other problems.   Panarin is a flashier player but the team could be worse because of him.  Lets face the elephant in the room. 

[BrooksBurner]

33 minutes ago, Pete said:

But Kreider can't do what Panarin does. Sorry, I've seen this team with a top scored of 60 points. Not here for it. Mika needs help.

 

Lafreniere can't do what Panarin does, but he can give you 60 points and 25 goals with PP time. Othmann can't do what Panarin does, but he can grow into what Kreider does.

 

It's not about value against the cap, Kreider is fairly paid, so is Panarin. it's about what can be done on the ice and I'm taking Panarin's skillset + Laf + Othmann over Kreider/Laf/Othmann.

 

I'm not willing to go back to being a team that has to work twice as hard as other teams to score.

 

Panarin wasn't Panarin until he was 25 in the NHL, and even then he was Panarin-lite as a point producer compared to what he turned into with the Rangers. At Lafreniere's age, he was only averaging a half pt a game in the KHL. Ironically, Kravtsov just did that and nobody cared. Point being we don't know who will turn into who.

 

It's not Panarin/Laf/Othmann vs Kreider/Laf/Othmann. It's Panarin/<ELC> vs Kreider/<$6M Player - Buchnevich-like object, or imagine Tarasenko becomes a possibility for a little extra if you will>.

 

Anyway, fun debate but I don't disagree that Kreider would more likely be the guy on the move first...just for other reasons (lesser trade protection, more bang for buck on market, easier cap hit for more teams to fit, etc).

Edited December 6, 2022 by rmc51

[RJWantsTheCup]

Argument in off season was you need Panarin to make playoffs so disappointing playoffs were worth over looking and not worth exploring trading him.

Well this season they might not make the playoffs and Panarin still doesn't look like the same player.