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Igor Shesterkin: Vezina/Hart Frontrunner?


Phil

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Even after a Georgiev-like performance, Shesty still firmly in the Hart debate...

 

I really don't know why Matthews is getting so much fanfare as Hart front runner. Yeah he's having a great season productively, but since he got hot a month or so ago, I've been keeping an eye on the Leafs games and it seems like he's been scoring goals mainly in games when the Leafs have been potting 4-5 anyway. Hardly clutch. 

 

 

Edited by Karan
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There is no valid argument for anyone other than shesterkin, right now. We will see how the rest of the season goes but the guy has the numbers and is so much better than the next goalie this year than any skater has been over the next skater. The literal definition of mvp

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Shesty Pulling away in the Vezina standings

 

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nhl/vezina-trophy-odds/

2022 Vezina Trophy Odds

Goalie Odds
Igor Shesterkin (Rangers) -120
Frederik Andersen (Hurricanes) +600
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Lightning) +700
Jacob Markstrom (Flames) +850
Sergei Bobrovsky (Panthers) +950
Jack Campbell (Maple Leafs) +1100
Juuse Saros (Predators) +1200
Connor Hellebuyck (Jets) +2600
Darcy Kuemper (Avalanche) +2900
Tristan Jarry (Penguins) +2900
Jonathan Quick (Kings) +2900
Ville Husso (Blues) +2900
Ilya Sorokin (Islanders) +3400
John Gibson (Ducks) +4800
Thatcher Demko (Canucks) +6000
Robin Lehner (Golden Knights) +6000
Alex Nedeljkovic (Red Wings) +6000
Cam Talbot (Wild) +9500
Vitek Vanecek (Captails) +9500
Elvis Merzlikins (Blue Jackets)

+9500

Edited by VegasRanger
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It’s easily one of the most dominating goalie seasons in history and he did it against New Jersey, who not only had plenty of grade a chances, he made it look easy. It’s hard to walk in the shadow of Henrik, but being better than him is one way to do it

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18 hours ago, Valriera said:

It’s easily one of the most dominating goalie seasons in history and he did it against New Jersey, who not only had plenty of grade a chances, he made it look easy. It’s hard to walk in the shadow of Henrik, but being better than him is one way to do it

So which is more likely - that Shesterkin will be a career .940 save percentage goalie, and this is an average season for him.... or that because of small sample size this season he is exceeding expectations, and we should expect a regression to some unknown mean?  Sure, celebrate this season.  But taking less than one season and comparing to Lundqvist's career?  I'm skeptical.

 

Similarly we can hope this hot streak carries over to the playoffs and the Rangers can make a run.  But anything can happen in a 7 game series, underdogs beat favorites, and there is probably more luck involved than we would like to admit.

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there is no comparison to hank's career yet - dont take it as that. this year igor has been better than hank was at any point in his career, but hank's strength was consistency over many long seasons. long way to go before we start talking about that wrt to igor. 

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34 minutes ago, Valriera said:

there is no comparison to hank's career yet - dont take it as that. this year igor has been better than hank was at any point in his career, but hank's strength was consistency over many long seasons. long way to go before we start talking about that wrt to igor. 

I don't really believe in using stats between eras because there are so many different things going on (defensive structure, team philosophy, luck) to look at stats and say that Player x had more skill than Player Y. If you go by statistics the scorers in the 1980s were much better than present-day. 

 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

 

So I don't think we can say Shesterkin has been better this year than Lundqvist  at any point in his career.

 

Shesterkin is too young for comparables but remember Lundqvists similarity comparables.

 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/lundqhe01.html

 

Thru 15 Years Adjusted Point Shares (Best to Worst)
Player   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Henrik Lundqvist   15.9 15.0 14.3 14.1 14.0 13.7 12.6 12.4 12.2 11.9 11.9 9.2 9.1 9.0 5.4
Martin Brodeur* 91.4 17.3 15.5 14.9 12.8 12.5 12.4 12.1 11.4 11.3 11.1 9.8 9.8 8.8 8.7 0.4
Tony Esposito* 91.1 19.1 15.9 15.6 14.3 14.3 13.9 13.6 13.5 13.3 11.5 11.1 10.4 7.5 6.4 2.5
Patrick Roy* 88.6 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.5 12.8 12.1 11.4 11.3 10.7 10.0 9.5 8.9 7.9 6.5 0.0
Curtis Joseph 87.2 15.8 15.7 14.4 14.0 13.4 12.1 11.6 11.0 10.7 8.7 7.2 5.8 4.3 4.1 2.7
Roberto Luongo 87.2 20.9 18.5 17.1 14.4 14.4 13.6 11.8 11.8 11.6 11.1 10.7 10.6 10.6 5.3 4.4
Ryan Miller 85.5 16.8 14.1 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.3 11.4 10.6 10.3 9.9 6.6 5.4 2.2 -0.6
Glenn Hall* 83.6 17.3 17.0 16.8 16.4 16.2 15.9 15.9 14.8 12.9 12.7 10.1 9.8 7.2 1.8 0.8
Carey Price 83.2 16.2 15.4 13.9 12.6 12.5 12.3 11.5 9.5 9.2 8.5 7.6 6.4 5.0 3.0  
Terry Sawchuk* 82.7 19.9 19.5 18.1 17.0 16.4 12.9 12.2 12.0 11.2 10.8 10.8 7.7 6.9 6.2 1.7
Rogie Vachon* 82.2 14.7 14.3 13.9 12.9 12.5 10.8 10.1 9.6 9.6 8.9 7.9 6.4 6.3 4.7 1.6
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19 hours ago, fletch said:

So which is more likely - that Shesterkin will be a career .940 save percentage goalie, and this is an average season for him.... or that because of small sample size this season he is exceeding expectations, and we should expect a regression to some unknown mean?  Sure, celebrate this season.  But taking less than one season and comparing to Lundqvist's career?  I'm skeptical.

 

Similarly we can hope this hot streak carries over to the playoffs and the Rangers can make a run.  But anything can happen in a 7 game series, underdogs beat favorites, and there is probably more luck involved than we would like to admit.

 

Last year was the anomaly where he was average.  He's been dominate for the other 5 of 6 past years.

 

117 KHL games: 88-19-15, 1.68 GAA .935 SV%

25 AHL games: 17-4-5, 1.90 GAA .934 SV%

83 NHL games: 53-22-6, 2.31 GAA .930 SV%

 

Thing is we only have him for 3 more years after this...unless we want to pay him over $10M a year. 

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3 hours ago, Long live the King said:

 

Last year was the anomaly where he was average.  He's been dominate for the other 5 of 6 past years.

 

117 KHL games: 88-19-15, 1.68 GAA .935 SV%

25 AHL games: 17-4-5, 1.90 GAA .934 SV%

83 NHL games: 53-22-6, 2.31 GAA .930 SV%

 

Thing is we only have him for 3 more years after this...unless we want to pay him over $10M a year. 

 

That’s why I wanted him signed for 8 years for 7 or 8 million per now. Take him to 34 instead of UFA at 30 (yuck). That’s a bad problem with this org. They don’t lock in their own soon enough. One of the times they did was a gross error in talent evaluation (Brady Skjei). Igor’s talent level since he got here, however, was unmistakable. Hopefully we win a Cup with Igor before he goes to LAK for 7 years $77M.

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42 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

 

That’s why I wanted him signed for 8 years for 7 or 8 million per now. Take him to 34 instead of UFA at 30 (yuck). That’s a bad problem with this org. They don’t lock in their own soon enough. One of the times they did was a gross error in talent evaluation (Brady Skjei). Igor’s talent level since he got here, however, was unmistakable. Hopefully we win a Cup with Igor before he goes to LAK for 7 years $77M.

 

How do you lock in a goalie for eight years, who had been injured a number of times and had missed a good chunk of games? Yes, the previous seasons were shortened for various reasons, I know. There's still 27 or so game left from the season... Maybe this year will be different, he'll start in more than 50 games and rewrites Rangers' history for goalies.

 

The Rangers can cross the bridge when Shesty's contract is up, I don't see the Rangers missing out on anything...

 

Don't take me wrong, I hope he'll get the Hart/Vezina after this season, but it's just too early to tell..

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9 hours ago, Long live the King said:

 

Last year was the anomaly where he was average.  He's been dominate for the other 5 of 6 past years.

 

117 KHL games: 88-19-15, 1.68 GAA .935 SV%

25 AHL games: 17-4-5, 1.90 GAA .934 SV%

83 NHL games: 53-22-6, 2.31 GAA .930 SV%

 

Thing is we only have him for 3 more years after this...unless we want to pay him over $10M a year. 

You've got a sample size of 83 NHL games, so a little over one NHL season, definition of small sample size.  Feel free to throw in his Squirt and Mite stats too if you are going to use the AHL as a barometer, LOL.

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Last nights game was a fantastic stat padder for Igor. Though the shot totals look lopsided, hardly any were Grade-A chances. Everything was to the outside. There were a few good saves mixed in. But all in all, you won’t see many 40+ save performances where the goalie was under less duress. But he did what he’s done all year, and that’s show up and dominate regardless of situation. This game will do nothing but further bump his already ridiculous stats. I guess we’ve become spoiled over the last 15 years of having a rock like Henrik in net, and now pivoting right to this following Henriks retirement. It’s just absurd. I mean, we are watching an all-time great goaltending season. He’s having one of the best seasons by a goalie in the last, oh, I don’t know. 10-20 years? It’s definitely in the conversation IMO.

Edited by RichieNextel305
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