rumor/report: Rangers Sending Two Scouts to Leafs/Pens Game; Nylander?

[Giacomin]

Kreider, yes. Not what The Dude proposed.

 

Also, while I agree with you that Pionk would have plenty of teams interested, if he's the centerpoint of a proposed NYR-TOR deal, it's failing from the onset. You're simply not going to convince a team run by Kyle Dubas that a 23-year-old defenseman with a career -7.5 relative CF% and -6.9 relative FF% is "actually good, because the eye test."

 

Good point, Pionk may not have the adv stats that Dubas is seeking. I also agree with Gravesy that ultimately Nylander is traded for the best Dman Dubas/Shanny can get. Toronto, also prefers a RHD.

[Gravesy]

You can't over pay via trade AND salary with Nylander.

 

A 2nd pair defenseman isn't necessarily over paying for Nylander, provided the trading team are deep on d.

They certainly won't be trading Nylander for guys like Pionk and Zuccarello, that much I'm 100% certain of.

[Giacomin]

You can't over pay via trade AND salary with Nylander.

 

You have to, this is not a 27 y/o pending UFA. You do not trade for Panarin under any circumstances, sign him next year. A mistake too reminiscent of the Camelo Anthony trade. Nylander is different. A 7 year deal is paying him from 22 to 29.

 

Edit: you try not to overpay for anybody. However, you are not getting Nylander at a discount.

[josh]

A 2nd pair defenseman isn't necessarily over paying for Nylander, provided the trading team are deep on d.

They certainly won't be trading Nylander for guys like Pionk and Zuccarello, that much I'm 100% certain of.

 

add a second or Fast.

 

Adding a guy like Kreider to that package is over-paying, but a small, irrelevant piece is fine.

 

maybe Kreider + McQuaid (if healthy)

[Gravesy]

add a second or Fast.

 

Adding a guy like Kreider to that package is over-paying, but a small, irrelevant piece is fine.

 

maybe Kreider + McQuaid (if healthy)

 

No chance.

When Dubas moves Nylander he'll be looking for that missing piece on D. The Rangers simply don't have a fit in this trade.

[Phil]

I think there's a fair bit of underrating Nylander/overrating the Rangers pieces going on here.

He'll be hot property on the market and Dubas will get a top 4 defender for him. I have no doubt about that.

 

Which Neal Pionk is not, is my point.

[Phil]

Which guys have the best fancy stats on the Rangers?

 

I still can't see them getting multiple players that need to be re-signed in the next 2 seasons. Maybe a Skjei + rental, or Skjei + Fast + pick, but their issue is cap moving forward. They cant take on more cap past this season

 

On D? Only Claesson and Shattenkirk are above 50% in CF metrics. Smith has been passable. Everyone else is in the hole, which speaks to general roster composition. They're not a good defensive team.

 

Good point, Pionk may not have the adv stats that Dubas is seeking. I also agree with Gravesy that ultimately Nylander is traded for the best Dman Dubas/Shanny can get. Toronto, also prefers a RHD.

 

Pionk has brutal advanced stats. He's among the worst in the league at his position.

 

Among skaters who've played at least 200 minutes this year, only two NHL defensemen are worse in relative corsi: Chris Tanev and Trevor Daley.

[lefty9]

What worries me about Nylander is his price tag,he probAbly won t much better than Zuc stats and make a most double than Zuc

[Phil]

He just posted back-to-back 60+ point seasons at the ages of 20 and 21. Why are we assuming he's plateaued? He hasn't even reached his peak (25).

[Gravesy]

Which Neal Pionk is not, is my point.

 

I was agreeing with you.

[Vodka Drunkenski]

I think people are severely overrating Pionk. He along with the rest of the team will start to come back down to earth in a couple of weeks when the rest of the league starts to step up its game.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

Kreider, yes. Not what The Dude proposed.

 

Also, while I agree with you that Pionk would have plenty of teams interested, if he's the centerpoint of a proposed NYR-TOR deal, it's failing from the onset. You're simply not going to convince a team run by Kyle Dubas that a 23-year-old defenseman with a career -7.5 relative CF% and -6.9 relative FF% is "actually good, because the eye test."

 

From a scale from 1-10 (1 being absolute garbage) how bad is this? I seriously have no idea.

[Pete]

He just posted back-to-back 60+ point seasons at the ages of 20 and 21. Why are we assuming he's plateaued? He hasn't even reached his peak (25).

 

Because we're offsetting the loss of linemates, that we can't possibly replicate.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

add a second or Fast.

 

Adding a guy like Kreider to that package is over-paying, but a small, irrelevant piece is fine.

 

maybe Kreider + McQuaid (if healthy)

 

What? Nylander is already a better player than Kreider and is 5 years younger.

 

No chance.

When Dubas moves Nylander he'll be looking for that missing piece on D. The Rangers simply don't have a fit in this trade.

 

Lets do a 3-way deal! Who could use Hayes+ and have a D to give to TOR?

[josh]

What? Nylander is already a better player than Kreider and is 5 years younger.

 

 

 

Lets do a 3-way deal! Who could use Hayes+ and have a D to give to TOR?

 

Trades arent always just about stats. Leafs have holes. They also have a RFA that is unsigned. They also have upcoming cap issues.

[ThirtyONE]

Kreider, yes. Not what The Dude proposed.

 

Also, while I agree with you that Pionk would have plenty of teams interested, if he's the centerpoint of a proposed NYR-TOR deal, it's failing from the onset. You're simply not going to convince a team run by Kyle Dubas that a 23-year-old defenseman with a career -7.5 relative CF% and -6.9 relative FF% is "actually good, because the eye test."

 

I know Dubas is a stats guy but if this nonsensical stat is supposed to prove something, I?d love to hear it.

 

Pionk is quickly becoming our best defenseman. Call it an ?eye test? or call it just watching the game but it?s why scouts still exist and GMs haven?t been replaced by computers.

 

I?m not suggesting Pionk is fair price for Nylander but boiling his play down to whatever that is above is a mistake.

[Phil]

I know Dubas is a stats guy but if this nonsensical stat is supposed to prove something, I’d love to hear it.

 

Pionk is quickly becoming our best defenseman. Call it an “eye test” or call it just watching the game but it’s why scouts still exist and GMs haven’t been replaced by computers.

 

I’m not suggesting Pionk is fair price for Nylander but boiling his play down to whatever that is above is a mistake.

 

You've been misinformed if you think my intention was either (a) to suggest Corsi is a catch-all stat or (b) to beat the dead horse deader on "eye test" versus analytics. I've said for years they work in conjunction. Even the "computers" you are purposefully maligning here watch the game. They just come to a different determination based on the math than you.

 

As to corsi itself, one, it's not nonsense. It's based on a very simple principle that you can — hilariously enough — count with your own eyes to determine. And two, what it "proves" is that Pionk is an oddball. A unicorn, even. When you watch him play, he looks like a breakout player, highlighted by that gorgeous end-to-end goal from the other night. But when you actually drill down on the numbers, they're hideous, which might give analytically-inclined GMs (like Dubas) pause in making him a centerpiece of a trade.

[Phil]

Because we're offsetting the loss of linemates, that we can't possibly replicate.

 

But that strongly suggests that he's merely a product of Matthews, which is a bit of an unfalsifiable position.

 

I can understand having reservations over whether or not to pay him like Matthews. But I can't really buy the methods we're using here to do so — calling him a "support" player, like he's Carl Hagelin in disguise.

[Phil]

From a scale from 1-10 (1 being absolute garbage) how bad is this? I seriously have no idea.

 

It depends on how much stock you put into shot metrics. It's not very good. At least not in a vacuum. He's probably the kind of player who can be made a lot better (in terms of reducing his individual damage) by pairing him with a strong positional defender.

[Gravesy]

Both Pionk and Staals numbers improve when they’re not paired together.

Quinn and his team are supposed to be quite stat driven, so it’s a bit strange they’re seemingly hellbent on keeping that pairing together even though they’re statistical kryptonite for each other.

 

Might be because it just “works”. It’s strange though. I’d really like to see Pionk with a different partner for a long stretch.

[josh]

game day thread?

[Dunny]

Both Pionk and Staals numbers improve when they’re not paired together.

Quinn and his team are supposed to be quite stat driven, so it’s a bit strange they’re seemingly hellbent on keeping that pairing together even though they’re statistical kryptonite for each other.

 

Might be because it just “works”. It’s strange though. I’d really like to see Pionk with a different partner for a long stretch.

 

They don't use analytics available to the general populace. The Rangers will have their own, proprietary, analytics they use.

[Gravesy]

Sure, but it’s highly unlikely their shot metrics doesn’t tell the same story.

[CBrowningPI]

To Pionks credit, he leads the team in ice time (ATOI) and blocked shots (39). Both of which are indicative of a good defenseman and seeing as this will be his first full NHL season.

 

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[Gravesy]

I really like him.

Horrific shot metrics or not.