The Weather Thread

[LindG1000]

2 minutes ago, Blue Heaven said:

If I remember correctly, he's in Orlando

Was in Orlando - in Gainesville now.

 

@Parsley Figured that might be the case. Best hope is a westward drift, yeah?

[Parsley]

Just now, LindG1000 said:

Was in Orlando - in Gainesville now.

 

@Parsley Figured that might be the case. Best hope is a westward drift, yeah?

Ugh,,,,that's a rough spot as of now. If this thing crawls up the Gulf coast side of FL (regardless if it landfalls or stays just off the shore) I worry about immense rain totals across central and northern Florida. The "damaging" wind threat will be confined to a smaller swath but that could still end up impacting a chunk of central and/or north Florida. The Gulf coast beach will be flooded and battered as welll.

 

Again, until this storm passes over Cuba I wouldn't put alot of weight on intensity forecasts at this point. You basically need to prepare for a major hurricane and hope somehow it underperforms as it approaches. 

[LindG1000]

1 minute ago, Parsley said:

Ugh,,,,that's a rough spot as of now. If this thing crawls up the Gulf coast side of FL (regardless if it landfalls or stays just off the shore) I worry about immense rain totals across central and northern Florida. The "damaging" wind threat will be confined to a smaller swath but that could still end up impacting a chunk of central and/or north Florida. The Gulf coast beach will be flooded and battered as welll.

 

Again, until this storm passes over Cuba I wouldn't put alot of weight on intensity forecasts at this point. You basically need to prepare for a major hurricane and hope somehow it underperforms as it approaches. 

 

Thanks man. I'll stay safe.

[Parsley]

1 minute ago, LindG1000 said:

 

Thanks man. I'll stay safe.

Good. Definitely a serious threat for much of the state at this point. If the models are accurate with intensity by midweek, it's gonna be bad for many.  

[Parsley]

And we wake up to a beast over Cuba. Not good at all.
 

Models continue to bring Ian north and eventually north-northeast into the peninsula of Florida somewhere near Tampa. Worst part continues to be the anticipated slow movement once it nears and traverses the peninsula. That would lead to major flooding and/or power outages across a large chunk of real estate of central and northern Florida and then perhaps Georgia and the Carolina’s.
 

Really hard to see a “best case scenario” at this point.  

[Parsley]

I'd say if we are splitting hairs, the anticipated track has shifted a smidge south-southeast for Ian into Florida, before looking like a landfall near or north of Tampa toward the panhandle coastline, to now near or just south of Tampa toward Fort Myers. Either way that takes copious amounts of rain and wind and carries it across much of the Florida peninsula as it then treks north over land.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Parsley

[LindG1000]

2 hours ago, Parsley said:

I'd say if we are splitting hairs, the anticipated track has shifted a smidge south-southeast for Ian into Florida, before looking like a landfall near or north of Tampa toward the panhandle coastline, to now near or just south of Tampa toward Fort Myers. Either way that takes copious amounts of rain and wind and carries it across much of the Florida peninsula as it then treks north over land.

 

I'll take anything that gets me to the west side of the storm and away from the eyewall.

[Parsley]

28 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

I'll take anything that gets me to the west side of the storm and away from the eyewall.

Yeah, a trade off potentially. Hurricane force winds vs highest potential rain totals which will likely be just north of landfall. If that eventual track was to keep nudging south then the panhandle and perhaps north Florida (up your way) could miss out on the highest rain totals. That’s your best hope. 

[Parsley]

Hope may not be much help over the bulk of the peninsula if the average of these tracks occur. 

 

[LindG1000]

Most of these tracks have the eye passing about 20 miles west of me or so at something around hurricane force in the dead of night. Should be fun.

[LindG1000]

11am seems to be continuing the eastward shift. Eye now projected to go right over I-4. 

 

Bit of a blessing for me, with the eye now looking more like 45 miles east of me on Friday morning with TS force winds. Not out of it yet, but if the track holds, I'm in far better shape than I was last night.

[Parsley]

9 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

11am seems to be continuing the eastward shift. Eye now projected to go right over I-4. 

 

Bit of a blessing for me, with the eye now looking more like 45 miles east of me on Friday morning with TS force winds. Not out of it yet, but if the track holds, I'm in far better shape than I was last night.

Hopefully for you things keep nudging south/east. That unfortunately puts people in central and south Florida under the gun. 

[Parsley]

Really need to hope this thing peaks well before it approaches the FL coast. 

[Parsley]

Latest NHC discussion….

 

The hurricane should remain in a favorable environment for restrengthening over the next day or so while it moves over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in light-shear conditions. While the shear should increase by tomorrow, it isn't expected to be enough to significantly weaken the hurricane before landfall. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for an extremely dangerous hurricane landfall for southwestern Florida. The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Watch for portions of extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a watch. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center

[LindG1000]

Just now, Parsley said:

Hopefully for you things keep nudging south/east. That unfortunately puts people in central and south Florida under the gun. 

Yeah. I'm feeling worried for Tampa and Orlando.

 

There's literally nowhere on the west coast of Florida that's "good" for a landfall. There are places where a track would do less damage, I guess.

[Parsley]

2 hours ago, LindG1000 said:

Yeah. I'm feeling worried for Tampa and Orlando.

 

There's literally nowhere on the west coast of Florida that's "good" for a landfall. There are places where a track would do less damage, I guess.

Further south where it's less populated and swampy toward Naples and especially Marco Island would be best at this point. I will say the nudges south on the models have continued today so maybe Tampa can be spared a direct hit, we'll see........

[Ozzy]

Stay safe, G Man!!! 

[LindG1000]

Couple things moving in my personal favor today.

 

Storm seems to be erring toward south of Tampa as the landfall spot. @Parsley - is Naples/Marco a legit option for landfall or is that just too far south to matter?

Extend of hurricane force winds seems to be very localized around the eye

Storm track continues to drift east of me.

[Parsley]

58 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

Couple things moving in my personal favor today.

 

Storm seems to be erring toward south of Tampa as the landfall spot. @Parsley - is Naples/Marco a legit option for landfall or is that just too far south to matter?

Extend of hurricane force winds seems to be very localized around the eye

Storm track continues to drift east of me.

For you and your spot definitely looking better than 24 hours ago. I think the storm landfall is leaning south of Tampa. Maybe Fort Myers region? That's just my guess based on trends, still areas 100 miles north would see hurricane winds and 10+ inches of rain. For areas much further north (toward the panhandle) their is always a sharp cutoff in rain totals on the northwest side of a tropical cyclone so somewhere heading in that direction rain amounts will drop off drastically.  Hopefully, for you stay that way or even trend a bit further south/east the next 24 hours.

[Bugg]

5 hours ago, LindG1000 said:

11am seems to be continuing the eastward shift. Eye now projected to go right over I-4. 

 

Bit of a blessing for me, with the eye now looking more like 45 miles east of me on Friday morning with TS force winds. Not out of it yet, but if the track holds, I'm in far better shape than I was last night.

Based on the "fun" Sandy, charge all your devices and remote chargers, get all the gas you can, in your cars and in gas cans.  Bottled water,  ice and coolers are a good idea. Be prepared to be without electricity for up to a week. A gas grill with a propane tank was a big help; grilled meat as it defrosted. And if you can get a generator, do it. Anything that can blow around on your property needs to be secured. If you ahve stuff under your house, it's gonna float around in storm surge and break things if it isn't secured. Hope it does not come ashore on the high tide cycle. Lucky for you it's not a full moon; both of those things made Sandy a mess. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Bugg

[Keirik]

So my entire in law family flew in to Orlando this morning for vacation sans my wife. We tried getting them to cancel but no good. They return to NY on Friday if nothing is cancelled.

 

are they in danger? 

[LindG1000]

2 hours ago, Parsley said:

For you and your spot definitely looking better than 24 hours ago. I think the storm landfall is leaning south of Tampa. Maybe Fort Myers region? That's just my guess based on trends, still areas 100 miles north would see hurricane winds and 10+ inches of rain. For areas much further north (toward the panhandle) their is always a sharp cutoff in rain totals on the northwest side of a tropical cyclone so somewhere heading in that direction rain amounts will drop off drastically.  Hopefully, for you stay that way or even trend a bit further south/east the next 24 hours.

Continuing to get a little better for us. We're no longer expecting TS force winds...only TS force gusting.

 

We're still going to get hammered by rain. But the lack of serious wind is a big win for us if it holds.

[LindG1000]

1 hour ago, Bugg said:

Based on the "fun" Sandy, charge all your devices and remote chargers, get all the gas you can, in your cars and in gas cans.  Bottled water,  ice and coolers are a good idea. Be prepared to be without electricity for up to a week. A gas grill with a propane tank was a big help; grilled meat as it defrosted. And if you can get a generator, do it. Anything that can blow around on your property needs to be secured. If you ahve stuff under your house, it's gonna float around in storm surge and break things if it isn't secured. Hope it does not come ashore on the high tide cycle. Lucky for you it's not a full moon; both of those things made Sandy a mess. 

Thanks - I'm nowhere near the shore though. No worries about surge, thankfully. For me, it's rain and wind.

 

Candidly...if we lose power for extended amounts of time, I'll be headed to nearby relatives.

[Parsley]

4 hours ago, Keirik said:

So my entire in law family flew in to Orlando this morning for vacation sans my wife. We tried getting them to cancel but no good. They return to NY on Friday if nothing is cancelled.

 

are they in danger? 

Orlando is going to see a ton of rain and wind with the current forecast track. Extended Power outages and extensive flooding will be the concern.  I sure as hell would have cancelled any plans down there through the end of the week. I would think major, logjam delays will occur in the days ahead for air travel. Good luck to them getting home by the end of the week.  
 

Orlando gets hit hardest later Wednesday into Thursday. FYI. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Parsley

[Parsley]

Major streghtening overnight (approaching cat. 5 intensity). Not good. Heading for Cape Coral/Sarasota area for landfall it appears. Still looks like it then slowly crosses central Florida peninsula after landfall with a stripe of hurricane force winds heading toward Orlando and copious amounts of rain (in excess of 12") across much of central Florida. Tornado threat will continue near and south/east of storm track, especially across southern Florida peninsula.

 

Across northern Florida there will be a sharp cut off in flooding rain and high wind somewhere near Gainesville with much higher likelyhood once east toward Jacksonville.  A place like Tallahassee, FL may see little if any rain while a 100-150 miles east of there could see 10-20 inches with 60-80 mph winds.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Parsley