Parsley Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 (edited) Overnight/morning model trends have been for a more progressive, further east track of the weekend storm. In effect, lowering snowfall amounts forecasted on many models. We'll have to see is this a persistent trend or not. A further east track again would put highest snow totals well east of NYC, with very little potentially near and west of NYC. Again, 100 miles may be the difference between a nuisance event and major event for millions of people. Edited January 26, 2022 by Parsley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albatrosss Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 i recently bought a generator. i'm ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveByRichter35 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 hours ago, Parsley said: Overnight/morning model trends have been for a more progressive, further east track of the weekend storm. In effect, lowering snowfall amounts forecasted on many models. We'll have to see is this a persistent trend or not. A further east track again would put highest snow totals well east of NYC, with very little potentially near and west of NYC. Again, 100 miles may be the difference between a nuisance event and major event for millions of people. So you're saying that Long Island will get the brunt? Or will it be even east of LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 (edited) 20 minutes ago, SaveByRichter35 said: So you're saying that Long Island will get the brunt? Or will it be even east of LI? I’ll say the most likely location I see appreciable snows would be Long island BUT If East trends continue in the models then anticipated amounts will lessen. There have been some Substantial shifts toward a less snowy outcome today on the models but nothing is set in stone 2-3 days out. I was definitely more Excited about a big storm yesterday vs today. We’ll see how things stand Thursday morning. Edited January 26, 2022 by Parsley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveByRichter35 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Parsley said: I’ll Say the most likely location I see appreciable snows would be long island BUT If East trends continue in the models then anticipated amounts will lessen. There have been some Substantial shifts toward a less snowy outcome today on the models but nothing is set in stone 2-3 days out. I was definitely more Excited about a big storm yesterday vs today. We’ll see how things stand Thursday morning. So what you're saying is it is all going to come down to whether I get my shift swapped back to a night shift. If I am unable to swap and I am stuck working Saturday morning we're going to get walloped. If I am able to move back to the night shift we're going to get rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Early glance at the overnight models swinging back toward a snowier, high end potential with a slower, farther west storm track. Again, that high end potential was advertised as 1-2 feet total (especially coastal areas) I’ll have an update Thursday morning but I bet winter storm watches will be issued on Thursday for the weekend storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keirik Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 All I want to know is if central to north eastern parts of LI ( think Washitngotnnspy trail) is going to make me make my wife crack out the snow blower lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 hours ago, Keirik said: All I want to know is if central to north eastern parts of LI ( think Washitngotnnspy trail) is going to make me make my wife crack out the snow blower lol Yes. High likelihood on Long Island at this point for a major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 (edited) 8 hours ago, Parsley said: Early glance at the overnight models swinging back toward a snowier, high end potential with a slower, farther west storm track. Again, that high end potential was advertised as 1-2 feet total (especially coastal areas) I’ll have an update Thursday morning but I bet winter storm watches will be issued on Thursday for the weekend storm. So we're getting 1-2 feet by me?!? Edited January 27, 2022 by Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lefty9 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just heard on the news long island getting six inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, Pete said: So we're getting 1-2 feet by me?!? Models are flip flopping around. The cutoff will be 0-12+" over a 100 mile stretch (west to east) Problem is that could set up in NJ or over Long Island. So with under 48 hours to go the range for possible snow amounts are huge, especially from NYC on west (NJ). Long Island stands the highest chance at high end totals (over 12"). Even the least snowiest models still show Long Island getting a plowable amount. Once you move west of NYC those chances.....as of now drop, dramatically. You in NJ are literally in a zone that could see as little as 1-3 inches or more than 12 inches depending on the eventual storm track. As of now the storm hasn't even formed yet off the coast of the Southeast. That won't even happen until tomorrow. Same goes out here in PA, while I stand very little chance of high end amounts, my location could see nothing at all, or as much as 6-12 inches if the storm track ends up closer to the coast. Just too soon to say. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 (edited) Basically at this point anyone from NJ on east needs to be on guard for a snowy mess Saturday. For those anti-snow, hope the storm after it forms Friday and tracks northeast up the coast stays offshore a bit further than currently expected. If you want to get a massive snowstorm, hope the track is closer to the coastline as it lifts northeast Saturday. That's why places further east like Long Island, CT, Rhode Island and Mass. are in better position as of now to get creamed. Edited January 27, 2022 by Parsley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Again, from a geographical perspective, this has the potential to drop next to nothing in terms of snow in the Poconos of Pennsylania and 1-2 feet somewhere from Long Island into southern new England. The cutoff will be dramatic and set up somewhere over the tri-state area most likely. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 You rock, Parsley!!! Thanks man!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ozzy said: You rock, Parsley!!! Thanks man!!! No problem. Just trying to share the range of possilbities. It's quite amazing how these snowstorms seem to set up their snow amount gradients right over the tri-state. So someone in western NJ or eastern Pennsylvania can be raging what storm!?!? while people out on Long Island dig out from a ton of snow. It really looks to come down to where the storms forms Friday and its trek northeast from there Friday night into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Parsley said: No problem. Just trying to share the range of possilbities. It's quite amazing how these snowstorms seem to set up their snow amount gradients right over the tri-state. So someone in western NJ or eastern Pennsylvania can be raging what storm!?!? while people out on Long Island dig out from a ton of snow. It really looks to come down to where the storms forms Friday and its trek northeast from there Friday night into Saturday. I'll be watching for your report!! I just got a new snowblower to reverse jinx all this shit...but oh well! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vodka Drunkenski Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Pleeeeease push out east into the ocean, pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeease 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vodka Drunkenski Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Pars, you familiar with WeatherWorks? Company I work for pays for their service and they are saying 4-8 here, curious how reliable they are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, Vodka Drunkenski said: Pars, you familiar with WeatherWorks? Company I work for pays for their service and they are saying 4-8 here, curious how reliable they are Actually some of the guys who run that company post on weather message boards that I visit (sort of like this Ranger board) where we share thoughts and ideas and our opinions. I don't know the guys personally, but I assume they know their stuff. With a storm like this though knowledge may not matter as the storm will do what it wishes. For someone running a company like that the hope is they are on top of the changes as the event unfolds with updates swiftly as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 You are likely to see lots of updates on anticipated snow totals right up through Friday night, so be prepared for changes and don't expect what is being "forecasted" today to be the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keirik Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 hours ago, lefty9 said: Just heard on the news long island getting six inches Not if Mother Nature stops by my house! Heyoooooooo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lefty9 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, Keirik said: Not if Mother Nature stops by my house! Heyoooooooo You can have it ,I dont need any snow,I need to make money on saturday anything above two inches kills any chance of making money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, Keirik said: Not if Mother Nature stops by my house! Heyoooooooo ...beat me to it!!! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveByRichter35 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 As of now I am still working Saturday morning. LI is gonna get 3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, SaveByRichter35 said: As of now I am still working Saturday morning. LI is gonna get 3 feet. Well....good news is the snow should be light Friday night-early Saturday, heavy snow rolls in during the day Saturday so roads would be a disaster Saturday afteroon-night. What's your shift? In general, not much change in the models today. As is, that would lead to a major hit for Long Island, CT, RI, Mass. For NYC, NJ, Hudson Valley could break either way major vs. moderate/small event. Further west much less snow toward Pennsylvania, if any at all. Still like top end potential over 12".....maybe up toward 24" for the heaviest hit areas (again that'd be targeting parts of long Island and New England at this time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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