The Curious Case of Jonny 'Benjamin Button' Brodzinski

[BrooksBurner]

I was going to respond in another thread, but I think it warrants it's own thread given there's a clear choice to be made between rolling with him versus trading significant assets for a rental center (Henrique, barf).

 

Mostly I wanted to try to find where the weaknesses were, and identify what exactly sticks out like a sore thumb where he needs to improve. I mostly like to look for indicators even in small sample sizes to form an opinion. There must be something, right? Jonny Brodzinski looking better and younger at 30 years old than we've ever seen him before. Is he the Rangers' Benjamin Button?

 

Nerd stat rankings amongst forwards on the team:

 

56 xGF% - 1st

53 GF% - 5th

53 HDCF% - 4th

2.09 Pts/60 - 2nd (Panarin 1st 2.42, Kreider 3rd 1.99)

 

All excellent, clearly. So what gives...favorable deployment usage? Matchups? Luck? Carried by everyone he gets put on a line with?

 

Deployment amongst centers on the team:

 

58% OZ Start % on the fly (1st, Zib: 57, Tro: 56, negligible difference. Goodrow is the whipping boy at 35)

50% OZ faceoff start % (3rd,  Zib 1st 55, Tro 54. Goodrow is the whipping boy at 34)

 

Deployment in general is favorable for the top 3 centers. Nothing forced or out of the ordinary for Brodzinski. Speaking of faceoffs, the dude is good there too at 54%.

 

Matchups

 

I'm not digging too much into this. I looked at the forward he drew the most TOI against in each of the last 5 games.

 

Calgary - Nazem Kadri, 3:49

Chicago - Jason Dickinson, 6:55

Tampa - Kucherov, 3:54

Colorado - Johansen, 5:09

Ottawa - Grieg, 6:13

 

NY played at home and got last change against Calgary, Tampa, Colorado. It looks like a mixed bag of results here, and it doesn't look like Laviolette is making a concerted effort to baby Brodzinski in terms of matchups. I could be wrong depending on what a longer history looks like.

 

Luck

 

6% shooting and .987 PDO ... insinuates he's been fairly unlucky. He should have more positive results.

 

Lines

 

52 TOI Cuylle-Brodz-Kakko = 65 xGF%, 61 HDCF%

52 TOI Cuylle-Brodz-Wheeler = 64 xGF%, 68 HDCF%

 

Contrast with Bonino instead of Brodzinski between Cuylle and Kakko:

 

68 TOI Cuylle-Bonino-Kakko = 48 xGF%, 41 HDCF%

 

I initially thought maybe this was a Cuylle-Kakko thing. The data actually suggests it's a Cuylle-Brodz thing and it doesn't matter if it's Wheeler or Kakko on the right. Maybe this shouldn't be surprising, as Cuylle and Brodz were frequent linemates in Hartford. They have chemistry, and it appears to have transferred up.

 

--------------------------------------------------

 

Has Lavi cracked this guy's code at 30 years old? Is it just plain good chemistry with Cuylle? Did he snort some pixie dust in Jimmy Vesey's locker, and re-invented his game to be a productive NHLer?

 

Not saying he's for sure an answer, but there's nothing that is suggesting he isn't either. Let him cook a few more weeks.

[Br4d]

Not that they're going to do this but it would be interesting to see a Cuylle/Brodzinski/Vesey line get some minutes.

[jsm7302]

2 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

I was going to respond in another thread, but I think it warrants it's own thread given there's a clear choice to be made between rolling with him versus trading significant assets for a rental center (Henrique, barf).

 

Mostly I wanted to try to find where the weaknesses were, and identify what exactly sticks out like a sore thumb where he needs to improve. I mostly like to look for indicators even in small sample sizes to form an opinion. There must be something, right? Jonny Brodzinski looking better and younger at 30 years old than we've ever seen him before. Is he the Rangers' Benjamin Button?

 

Nerd stat rankings amongst forwards on the team:

 

56 xGF% - 1st

53 GF% - 5th

53 HDCF% - 4th

2.09 Pts/60 - 2nd (Panarin 1st 2.42, Kreider 3rd 1.99)

 

All excellent, clearly. So what gives...favorable deployment usage? Matchups? Luck? Carried by everyone he gets put on a line with?

 

Deployment amongst centers on the team:

 

58% OZ Start % on the fly (1st, Zib: 57, Tro: 56, negligible difference. Goodrow is the whipping boy at 35)

50% OZ faceoff start % (3rd,  Zib 1st 55, Tro 54. Goodrow is the whipping boy at 34)

 

Deployment in general is favorable for the top 3 centers. Nothing forced or out of the ordinary for Brodzinski. Speaking of faceoffs, the dude is good there too at 54%.

 

Matchups

 

I'm not digging too much into this. I looked at the forward he drew the most TOI against in each of the last 5 games.

 

Calgary - Nazem Kadri, 3:49

Chicago - Jason Dickinson, 6:55

Tampa - Kucherov, 3:54

Colorado - Johansen, 5:09

Ottawa - Grieg, 6:13

 

NY played at home and got last change against Calgary, Tampa, Colorado. It looks like a mixed bag of results here, and it doesn't look like Laviolette is making a concerted effort to baby Brodzinski in terms of matchups. I could be wrong depending on what a longer history looks like.

 

Luck

 

6% shooting and .987 PDO ... insinuates he's been fairly unlucky. He should have more positive results.

 

Lines

 

52 TOI Cuylle-Brodz-Kakko = 65 xGF%, 61 HDCF%

52 TOI Cuylle-Brodz-Wheeler = 64 xGF%, 68 HDCF%

 

Contrast with Bonino instead of Brodzinski between Cuylle and Kakko:

 

68 TOI Cuylle-Bonino-Kakko = 48 xGF%, 41 HDCF%

 

I initially thought maybe this was a Cuylle-Kakko thing. The data actually suggests it's a Cuylle-Brodz thing and it doesn't matter if it's Wheeler or Kakko on the right. Maybe this shouldn't be surprising, as Cuylle and Brodz were frequent linemates in Hartford. They have chemistry, and it appears to have transferred up.

 

--------------------------------------------------

 

Has Lavi cracked this guy's code at 30 years old? Is it just plain good chemistry with Cuylle? Did he snort some pixie dust in Jimmy Vesey's locker, and re-invented his game to be a productive NHLer?

 

Not saying he's for sure an answer, but there's nothing that is suggesting he isn't either. Let him cook a few more weeks.

Well said. I'm on the NYR Jonny Hockey bandwagon. Role with him; it's working. I didn't do the homework but am just using the eye test. You did the research and proved the eye test right. I love it. Now let's get Tarasenko and make it to April for the fun!!

[RangersIn7]

Brodz has been fine or better since last season.

Its not news to say that he’s absolutely done enough and shown enough to be a full-time member of this roster.

He has enough tools in his bag to be a viable and effective player in a bottom-6 role at the NHL level. 

 

Nice job on doing the work in the research too!

Totally validates him. 
 

Whether they go get a C or not, Brodz stays in on the roster and in the lineup. 
 

He’s earned it. 

[Long live the King]

His play has been admirable, but let's be honest.. 

 

When he first became a regular he had 6 points in 6 games.  During this win streak he has 5 points in 5 games.

 

In the middle he had 3 assists in 22 games.

 

Odds are there's another long drought coming and that's not good enough for your 3C.  I'm not mad at Edstrom's play but ideally Brodz is you 4th line LW.

[Sod16]

I've always liked this guy, and I've generally been critical of all of the players who have come and gone in our bottom six.  When you look at the names mentioned as possible deadline acquisitions to be the 3C, there is no assurance that any of them will represent an improvement over JBrod, especially when brand new on a team.  How much am I willing to part with in a trade for a guy who may not represent an improvement at all?  There is also the speed factor, a commodity we desperately need and which JBrod provides.

[Valriera]

He’s fine and he earned it. Not confidence inspiring. But as a big plus, he can really skate which is perfect for the role

[Pete]

8 hours ago, Br4d said:

Not that they're going to do this but it would be interesting to see a Cuylle/Brodzinski/Vesey line get some minutes.

The third line and fourth line have goals in the last two games IIRC. Kakko is playing his best hockey of the season.

 

Why on Earth would you change that? Making a trade is one thing. Shuffling lines for the sake of shuffling lines doesn't make any sense. 

Edited February 14 by Pete

[Pete]

8 hours ago, Long live the King said:

His play has been admirable, but let's be honest.. 

 

When he first became a regular he had 6 points in 6 games.  During this win streak he has 5 points in 5 games.

 

In the middle he had 3 assists in 22 games.

 

Odds are there's another long drought coming and that's not good enough for your 3C.  I'm not mad at Edstrom's play but ideally Brodz is you 4th line LW.

This is where my head is at. I think we get to wrapped up in the fancy stats that we forget to look at the boxcars. Kakko has great analytics too but it doesn't change the fact that it hasn't been translating for him. Production matters.

 

At this point it might be wise to pick up a utility forward who could slot in at C and W and put him where he's needed the most. They acquired Copp to be their 3C and he wound up being the 2RW. I think they need to grab a similar type of player. 

[RangersIn7]

9 minutes ago, Pete said:

This is where my head is at. I think we get to wrapped up in the fancy stats that we forget to look at the boxcars. Kakko has great analytics too but it doesn't change the fact that it hasn't been translating for him. Production matters.

 

At this point it might be wise to pick up a utility forward who could slot in at C and W and put him where he's needed the most. They acquired Copp to be their 3C and he wound up being the 2RW. I think they need to grab a similar type of player. 

Yeah.

 

A mid-6 Swiss Army knife player could be very, very valuable for them.

 

I still think a top RW is the biggest need. But the above could potentially be as impactful.

[Sharpshooter]

He's been what he's always been. He can be a nice sparkplug for a stretch and games and then be completely invisible for weeks. That's why he's a tweener. I will give him the kudos he deserves, though, he's been a nice catalyst on that line overall. They need to upgrade for sure, but I'll certainly take what we've gotten recently.

[BrooksBurner]

11 hours ago, jsm7302 said:

Well said. I'm on the NYR Jonny Hockey bandwagon. Role with him; it's working. I didn't do the homework but am just using the eye test. You did the research and proved the eye test right. I love it. Now let's get Tarasenko and make it to April for the fun!!

 

Agree on the eye test. He's got a good motor too.

 

I still find myself trying to break free from the "can we really bank on Jonny Brodzinski in the playoffs?" mindset, but going through this exercise alleviated some of it. If he keeps it up over the next 2-3 weeks, I'm all in with him, especially paired with Cuylle.

[RangersIn7]

1 hour ago, Sharpshooter said:

He's been what he's always been. He can be a nice sparkplug for a stretch and games and then be completely invisible for weeks. That's why he's a tweener. I will give him the kudos he deserves, though, he's been a nice catalyst on that line overall. They need to upgrade for sure, but I'll certainly take what we've gotten recently.

When he is invisible though, he’s actually solid defensively, can make those other type contributions and doesn’t make major mistakes. 

[Morphinity 2.0]

He reminds me of a utility player in baseball - decent enough, plays #TheRightWay, can play any position in your lineup, and will go one short hot streaks. 

[RangersIn7]

3 minutes ago, Morphinity 2.0 said:

He reminds me of a utility player in baseball - decent enough, plays #TheRightWay, can play any position in your lineup, and will go one short hot streaks. 

That’s fair.

 

But… and I’m not pumping him up here by saying this I don’t think…. not only doesn’t he hurt you, but he has some value/virtue there too. 

[Pete]

16 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Agree on the eye test. He's got a good motor too.

 

I still find myself trying to break free from the "can we really bank on Jonny Brodzinski in the playoffs?" mindset, but going through this exercise alleviated some of it. If he keeps it up over the next 2-3 weeks, I'm all in with him, especially paired with Cuylle.

It's funny that you're leaving Kakko out of it, the last two goals that line scored were direct results of Kakko driving the play. The other two were just picking up garbage in front. 

[Sharpshooter]

Kakko, too, has been a driving force for that line. It's just worked out really well for everyone.

[Ozzy]

I'm really liking what I'm seeing from that 3rd line.  Jonny Brodz is doing a pretty damn good job; probably as good or better than anybody else we might wanna bring in here, and I can't even remember the last time the Rangers filled a need from within.

 

I am more apt to favor letting it ride with Brodz and the Hartford boys, than rip up some of the roster with trading away picks, prospects or players.

 

Kakko looks better than he has all season, and what can I say about Cuylle?  That fucking guy has become my favorite this season.  Some of the call ups have been decent too.  Edstrom may be a pretty damn good option on that 4th line, that may give us some size and some offensive input.

 

I say Fuck it....let's roll with what we've got!

[BrooksBurner]

14 minutes ago, Pete said:

It's funny that you're leaving Kakko out of it, the last two goals that line scored were direct results of Kakko driving the play. The other two were just picking up garbage in front. 

 

Having re-watched the last two goals, I don't agree with any of this.

 

The results were also there with Wheeler instead of Kakko, that's why I am leaving him out...for now. Could change as/if he gets some confidence rolling.

[RangersIn7]

51 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Agree on the eye test. He's got a good motor too.

 

I still find myself trying to break free from the "can we really bank on Jonny Brodzinski in the playoffs?" mindset, but going through this exercise alleviated some of it. If he keeps it up over the next 2-3 weeks, I'm all in with him, especially paired with Cuylle.

The truth of the matter is that every team that wins the Cup, not only in the modern, salary cap era, but going back 10+ years prior, has question marks.

They have rookies or younger players with little to no playoff experience.

They have guys with poor track records there.

They have weak links.

 
Every great champion was at one point a novice trying to win their first.

[RangersIn7]

Just now, BrooksBurner said:

 

Having re-watched the last two goals, I don't agree with any of this.

 

The results were also there with Wheeler instead of Kakko, that's why I am leaving him out...for now. Could change as/if he gets some confidence rolling.

Kakko, because of the pedigree and the fact that his best is still better than the best shown by Brodz and Cuylle, and Wheeler because of his very accomplished career, are gonna be the ones that draw the most attention. 

I understand your point to a degree. But he’s done better since returning and more so since that line got together, so maybe give him a break. 
He’s really looked good there and he’s fat and away got the most talent and ability of the 3 on that line.

 

Kakko needs like you said.

A nice run and success and confidence. 

[BrooksBurner]

1 minute ago, RangersIn7 said:

The truth of the matter is that every team that wins the Cup, not only in the modern, salary cap era, but going back 10+ years prior, has question marks.

They have rookies or younger players with little to no playoff experience.

They have guys with poor track records there.

They have weak links.

 
Every great champion was at one point a novice trying to win their first.

 

Brett Howden was on a line with Stephenson and Stone for Vegas in last year's playoffs, so ain't that the truth.

[RangersIn7]

Just now, BrooksBurner said:

 

Brett Howden was on a line with Stephenson and Stone for Vegas in last year's playoffs, so ain't that the truth.

Exactly.

 

And we couldn’t help but bash the kid when he was here.

 

Guys get there when they get there.

 

 

Again… I’ll point to my post about Chris Pronger the other day.

 

It takes time and patience and for the other factors to eventually be the right factors. 

[BrooksBurner]

2 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

Kakko, because of the pedigree and the fact that his best is still better than the best shown by Brodz and Cuylle, and Wheeler because of his very accomplished career, are gonna be the ones that draw the most attention. 

I understand your point to a degree. But he’s done better since returning and more so since that line got together, so maybe give him a break. 
He’s really looked good there and he’s fat and away got the most talent and ability of the 3 on that line.

 

Kakko needs like you said.

A nice run and success and confidence. 

 

Yeah, I just don't agree. Cuylle, to me, is a better player than anything I've seen from Kakko in 5 seasons, and I don't really care about draft pedigree this deep into a player's career. I'm not hating on Kakko here, that's not the point of the thread, but I'm also going to go out of my way to overrate what he's brought to the line. He's fit with them as did Wheeler, and that's good enough for now. I'll leave it at that.

 

[Pete]

31 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Having re-watched the last two goals, I don't agree with any of this.

 

The results were also there with Wheeler instead of Kakko, that's why I am leaving him out...for now. Could change as/if he gets some confidence rolling.

Not sure what there is to disagree with. Both goals were direct results of Kakko rushes and shots that the goalie couldn't control.