The Curious Case of Jonny 'Benjamin Button' Brodzinski

[BrooksBurner]

37 minutes ago, Pete said:

Not sure what there is to disagree with. Both goals were direct results of Kakko rushes and shots that the goalie couldn't control.

I don’t equate shooting the puck to driving play. Both goals were off of turnovers created by Cuylle or Brodzinski, followed by hard crashing the net.

[Albatrosss]

14 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

I was going to respond in another thread, but I think it warrants it's own thread given there's a clear choice to be made between rolling with him versus trading significant assets for a rental center (Henrique, barf).

 

Mostly I wanted to try to find where the weaknesses were, and identify what exactly sticks out like a sore thumb where he needs to improve. I mostly like to look for indicators even in small sample sizes to form an opinion. There must be something, right? Jonny Brodzinski looking better and younger at 30 years old than we've ever seen him before. Is he the Rangers' Benjamin Button?

 

Nerd stat rankings amongst forwards on the team:

 

56 xGF% - 1st

53 GF% - 5th

53 HDCF% - 4th

2.09 Pts/60 - 2nd (Panarin 1st 2.42, Kreider 3rd 1.99)

 

All excellent, clearly. So what gives...favorable deployment usage? Matchups? Luck? Carried by everyone he gets put on a line with?

 

Deployment amongst centers on the team:

 

58% OZ Start % on the fly (1st, Zib: 57, Tro: 56, negligible difference. Goodrow is the whipping boy at 35)

50% OZ faceoff start % (3rd,  Zib 1st 55, Tro 54. Goodrow is the whipping boy at 34)

 

Deployment in general is favorable for the top 3 centers. Nothing forced or out of the ordinary for Brodzinski. Speaking of faceoffs, the dude is good there too at 54%.

 

Matchups

 

I'm not digging too much into this. I looked at the forward he drew the most TOI against in each of the last 5 games.

 

Calgary - Nazem Kadri, 3:49

Chicago - Jason Dickinson, 6:55

Tampa - Kucherov, 3:54

Colorado - Johansen, 5:09

Ottawa - Grieg, 6:13

 

NY played at home and got last change against Calgary, Tampa, Colorado. It looks like a mixed bag of results here, and it doesn't look like Laviolette is making a concerted effort to baby Brodzinski in terms of matchups. I could be wrong depending on what a longer history looks like.

 

Luck

 

6% shooting and .987 PDO ... insinuates he's been fairly unlucky. He should have more positive results.

 

Lines

 

52 TOI Cuylle-Brodz-Kakko = 65 xGF%, 61 HDCF%

52 TOI Cuylle-Brodz-Wheeler = 64 xGF%, 68 HDCF%

 

Contrast with Bonino instead of Brodzinski between Cuylle and Kakko:

 

68 TOI Cuylle-Bonino-Kakko = 48 xGF%, 41 HDCF%

 

I initially thought maybe this was a Cuylle-Kakko thing. The data actually suggests it's a Cuylle-Brodz thing and it doesn't matter if it's Wheeler or Kakko on the right. Maybe this shouldn't be surprising, as Cuylle and Brodz were frequent linemates in Hartford. They have chemistry, and it appears to have transferred up.

 

--------------------------------------------------

 

Has Lavi cracked this guy's code at 30 years old? Is it just plain good chemistry with Cuylle? Did he snort some pixie dust in Jimmy Vesey's locker, and re-invented his game to be a productive NHLer?

 

Not saying he's for sure an answer, but there's nothing that is suggesting he isn't either. Let him cook a few more weeks.

He'll be a good insurance player. 

[Pete]

30 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

I don’t equate shooting the puck to driving play. Both goals were off of turnovers created by Cuylle or Brodzinski, followed by hard crashing the net.

On a team that doesn't shoot enough, shooting the puck is absolutely a play-driver.

 

So you're completely discounting Kakko's contribution, although he's doing exactly what he wasn't doing on the Zib line? Doesn't make much sense to me, but we'll agree to disagree.

 

Brodz has 4 goals this season and Kakko has been on the ice for 3 of them, so completely disagree that the results were there with Wheeler.

[RangersIn7]

1 hour ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Yeah, I just don't agree. Cuylle, to me, is a better player than anything I've seen from Kakko in 5 seasons, and I don't really care about draft pedigree this deep into a player's career. I'm not hating on Kakko here, that's not the point of the thread, but I'm also going to go out of my way to overrate what he's brought to the line. He's fit with them as did Wheeler, and that's good enough for now. I'll leave it at that.

 

That is, on basis, ridiculous just because of the FACT that Kakko has an 18 goal, 40 point season to his credit and Cuylle does not.

 

GTFOOH.

[Scott]

5 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

That is, on basis, ridiculous just because of the FACT that Kakko has an 18 goal, 40 point season to his credit and Cuylle does not.                    

GTFOOH

Wow mind blowing numbers and he's had how many of those seasons?

 

Congrats on the heater he's on the last game or three.

[BrooksBurner]

25 minutes ago, Pete said:

On a team that doesn't shoot enough, shooting the puck is absolutely a play-driver.

 

So you're completely discounting Kakko's contribution, although he's doing exactly what he wasn't doing on the Zib line? Doesn't make much sense to me, but we'll agree to disagree.

 

Brodz has 4 goals this season and Kakko has been on the ice for 3 of them, so completely disagree that the results were there with Wheeler.

 

I didn't discount his contribution. I'm just not going to overrate his contribution. I'm glad he's shooting the puck.

 

By results I meant the ice being clearly tilted in their favor. With a sample size this small, it matters more to me that they were playing the right way and generating chances. Eventually, over time, "goals for and against" tend to start normalizing and falling in line to reflect that. For the record, I don't really care what individual scores the goals. I care that the line is scoring goals. Brodz pts per 60 ranks high on the team, so he's producing.

[BrooksBurner]

26 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

That is, on basis, ridiculous just because of the FACT that Kakko has an 18 goal, 40 point season to his credit and Cuylle does not.

 

GTFOOH.

 

If you think that's the only way to judge the quality of a hockey player, have at it.

[Pete]

11 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

I didn't discount his contribution. I'm just not going to overrate his contribution. I'm glad he's shooting the puck.

But you did. And then you gave more credit to Cullye and Brodz because they caused the turnovers (Brodz yes, Cullye no), but Kakko did all the legwork and heavy lifting, and finally choosing to shoot not pass. Just an odd choice on who's getting the credit, IMO.

 

Quote

 

By results I meant the ice being clearly tilted in their favor. With a sample size this small, it matters more to me that they were playing the right way and generating chances. Eventually, over time, "goals for and against" tend to start normalizing and falling in line to reflect that.

One would think, and yet we have evidence that it doesn't always happen. The stats however show slightly more offense with Kakko, and I'd think that would get better as the sample size goes up. Kakko > Wheeler. They aren't interchangeable.

 

 

Quote

For the record, I don't really care what individual scores the goals. I care that the line is scoring goals. Brodz pts per 60 ranks high on the team, so he's producing.

Pts 60 is a stat you use to compare players in similar roles when there's a discrepancy in ice time, him ranking high on the team doesn't mean much. He's not playing against the same level of competition as Tro and Zib, and if Brodz played 20:00/night his play would most definitely slip.

[RangersIn7]

12 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

If you think that's the only way to judge the quality of a hockey player, have at it.

If you’re saying there are other factors to a player’s game, Kakko has shown them consistently and you yourself I believe have acknowledged as such.

 

Not sure at all what you’re getting at here or why.

 

His deficiency to this point is his offensive output, especially relative to his draft position.

 

Which is 100% fair and justified.

And I agree with that.

 

The rest of his game isn’t in question.

You can like what you’ve seen from Cuylle so far, as do I, over a small sample.

But to say he’s bringing more is absurd.

Hes not.

We know it

Weve said as much,

 

Are you Mike Keenan?

Wanting every player to be like, 

Graves-Mess-Larmer?

 

Forever?

 

Yeah. Cuylle seems more rugged and is more advanced as a rookie that Kakko was.

Hes also  older than Kakko was and isn’t foreign and played extensively in the minors.

Ok.

 

Soooooo… what’s your point?

[Pete]

3 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

If you’re saying there are other factors to a player’s game, Kakko has shown them consistently and you yourself I believe have acknowledged as such.

 

Not sure at all what you’re getting at here or why.

 

His deficiency to this point is his offensive output, especially relative to his draft position.

 

Which is 100% fair and justified.

And I agree with that.

 

The rest of his game isn’t in question.

You can like what you’ve seen from Cuylle so far, as do I, over a small sample.

But to say he’s bringing more is absurd.

Hes not.

We know it

Weve said as much,

 

Are you Mike Keenan?

Wanting every player to be like, 

Graves-Mess-Larmer?

 

Forever?

 

Yeah. Cuylle seems more rugged and is more advanced as a rookie that Kakko was.

Hes also  older than Kakko was and isn’t foreign and played extensively in the minors.

Ok.

 

Soooooo… what’s your point?

Yea, I don't know why there's a rush to say who's "better", they are completely different players. Kakko is much more polished with the puck, Cuylle much more physical.

 

People really showing the recency bias with Kakko.

 

Cuylle is also showing more as a rookie than Lafreniere did until this season. Not sure we can't just be happy that all the 22 year olds are progressing.

Edited February 14 by Pete

[RangersIn7]

4 minutes ago, Pete said:

Yea, I don't know why there's a rush to say who's "better", they are completely different players. Kakko is much more polished with the puck, Cuylle much more physical.

 

People really showing the recency bias with Kakko.

 

Cuylle is also showing more as a rookie than Lafreniere did until this season. Not sure we can't just be happy that all the 22 year olds are progressing.

The Kakko/Miller stuff today is the same as it was with Laf last year.

 

Im just glad I can say I was consistent, and didn’t need to piss every time it rained, just because I didn’t like the weather.

Cause I’m not the only one living here.

 

[Pete]

2 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

The Kakko/Miller stuff today is the same as it was with Laf last year.

 

Im just glad I can say I was consistent, and didn’t need to piss every time it rained, just because I didn’t like the weather.

Cause I’m not the only one living here.

 

True, I learned a lot from what happened with Lafreniere. I can't understand anyone willing to give up on Miller or Kakko at this point. Even if you're short-sighted enough to think "they won't get better", their value is low. It's the wrong time to move either of them.

[BrooksBurner]

35 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

If you’re saying there are other factors to a player’s game, Kakko has shown them consistently and you yourself I believe have acknowledged as such.

 

Not sure at all what you’re getting at here or why.

 

His deficiency to this point is his offensive output, especially relative to his draft position.

 

Which is 100% fair and justified.

And I agree with that.

 

The rest of his game isn’t in question.

You can like what you’ve seen from Cuylle so far, as do I, over a small sample.

But to say he’s bringing more is absurd.

Hes not.

We know it

Weve said as much,

 

Are you Mike Keenan?

Wanting every player to be like, 

Graves-Mess-Larmer?

 

Forever?

 

Yeah. Cuylle seems more rugged and is more advanced as a rookie that Kakko was.

Hes also  older than Kakko was and isn’t foreign and played extensively in the minors.

Ok.

 

Soooooo… what’s your point?

It’s not some kind of hearsay to be more impressed by what Cuylle brings opposed to Kakko. Kakko is serviceable with a few good traits, but he’s not that good. I don’t agree that Kakko has shown some higher level of play than Cuylle. I understand why you might feel that way, I just don’t agree. Is what it is.

[BrooksBurner]

Kakko/Miller are further along in age/career/physical development than Laf. It was clear Laf was behind physically. Miller/Kakko problems are largely IQ related. Separate issues, not tit for tat.

[Pete]

7 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

Kakko/Miller are further along in age/career/physical development than Laf. It was clear Laf was behind physically. Miller/Kakko problems are largely IQ related. Separate issues, not tit for tat.

They all have around 270 NHL games. 

[BrooksBurner]

10 minutes ago, Pete said:

They all have around 270 NHL games. 

 

And Brodzinski has 135. Maybe he just hasn't gotten enough NHL action too. Yes, I'm being facetious.

 

NHL games isn't the only thing that matters.

[Pete]

30 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

And Brodzinski has 135. Maybe he just hasn't gotten enough NHL action too. Yes, I'm being facetious.

 

NHL games isn't the only thing that matters.

It's not the only thing, but when you're talking about players who are within a year or two of each other in terms of age and NHL experience, it's the most important thing that matters. 

[Albatrosss]

Miller is 24 and his position is more crucial than any forwards.  Kakko can get lost ala Kreider and nonone would notice. If Miller gets lost, its usually a loss in the books. 
How long do we have to wait until Miller “gets it”? 2-3 years?  No thanks. Schneider is only 22 and he’s already more trustworthy than Miller the Thriller

[Sod16]

Two years ago, how many GMs would have taken Noah Dobson over Miller?  Today?

[Pete]

4 hours ago, Sod16 said:

Two years ago, how many GMs would have taken Noah Dobson over Miller?  Today?

Considering he was drafted 12th and Miller 24th in the same draft, and had 38 points 2 years ago compared to Miller's 20, I'd have to say a lot of them. 

[Slobberknocker]

i remember when there was a lot of discussion about whether to give krieder that last contract due to his age and production.  

 

point being i wouldn't give up on any of these guys.  the BCK line is producing right now.  let it grow.  Also don't discount the role covid played in Kakko and Laf's development.  It was huge.

[Albatrosss]

2 hours ago, Slobberknocker said:

i remember when there was a lot of discussion about whether to give krieder that last contract due to his age and production.  

 

point being i wouldn't give up on any of these guys.  the BCK line is producing right now.  let it grow.  Also don't discount the role covid played in Kakko and Laf's development.  It was huge.