Let's Talk About the Real Issue: Goaltending

[Pete]

Make all the generalizations you want you want about this team "going back three seasons now" ...

 

This is by far and away the biggest problem that needs to be fixed, or nothing else will matter.

 

Igor's body of work has been anything between average and woof, with the exception of a few stellar games and sequences within games. Halfway through the season he doesn't have any shutouts. As I mentioned last night, the worst saved percentage in the NHL went down by two goals. This guy can't shut the door. 

 

Talk about any other player you want till you're blue in the face, this guy has fallen off the hardest. 

 

This is an example of a very good goalie playing very bad hockey. 

 

 

Edited January 12 by Pete

[BrooksBurner]

What's the data source this random is using? And what's the minimum games qualifier?

[Pete]

 

9 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

What's the data source this random is using? And what's the minimum games qualifier?

Looks like 15 GP. Who cares if he's random, he's right. 

 

https://www.nhl.com/stats/goalies?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20232024&seasonTo=20232024&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,15&sort=a_goalsAgainstAverage&page=0&pageSize=50

 

But at the end of the day it doesn't matter. He hasn't been good. Not nearly as good as the previous two years.

 

When you have an elite goalie, you can build your team in a way where they're a little more free to give up some chances. The Rangers thought they had an elite goalie.

 

He has not been elite this season. 

Edited January 12 by Pete

[BrooksBurner]

8 minutes ago, Pete said:

 

Looks like 15 GP. Who cares if he's random, he's right. 

 

https://www.nhl.com/stats/goalies?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20232024&seasonTo=20232024&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,15&sort=a_goalsAgainstAverage&page=0&pageSize=50

 

But at the end of the day it doesn't matter. He hasn't been good. Not nearly as good as the previous two years.

 

When you have an elite goalie, you can build your team in a way where they're a little more free to give up some chances. The Rangers thought they had an elite goalie.

 

He has not been elite this season. 

 

The phrasing is that he's THE issue, instead of part of the issue. I agree with the latter, and disagree with the former. The stats look off to me, especially HDSV%, which is highly insinuating he's been absolute trash. I see him at 18th. Average. Not trash.

 

Here's the thing. First it was Quinn was the issue. Then it was Gallant was the issue. Now it's Igor is the issue. It's tunnel vision to place it on one guy or one thing. It's a combination of things. I think Igor's play is an issue, but it's not the whole issue and I don't even think it's the biggest issue.

Edited January 12 by BrooksBurner

[Dunny]

His play is definitely an issue. It's going to be a down year for Igor. Just one of the many reasons investing more than 6 or 7 million in a goalie is bad business. 

 

 

[RangersIn7]

Yeah.

 He’s been in a real rut for a while and of late he’s been pretty lousy.

 

Maybe shift to Quick a bit again and get him working with Benny.

 

Though you have to think he’ll figure it out and go on a heater.

[LindG1000]

8 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

The phrasing is that he's THE issue, instead of part of the issue. I agree with the latter, and disagree with the former. The stats look off to me, especially HDSV%, which is highly insinuating he's been absolute trash. I see him at 18th. Average. Not trash.

 

Here's the thing. First it was Quinn was the issue. Then it was Gallant was the issue. Now it's Igor is the issue. It's tunnel vision to place it on one guy or one thing. It's a combination of things. I think Igor's play is an issue, but it's not the whole issue and I don't even think it's the biggest issue.

Jonathan Quick is outplaying him in front of the same team. 

 

They're the same goalie at low danger - both at .971. They're the same goalie at medium danger - both at .876. At high danger? Quick is at a league-leading .848, performing literally 17% better than expected. Shesterkin is at .736 - and that is still around 7% better than expected, but that's such a huge delta. There's no meaningful difference in the xSave% across the board between the two, suggesting that the team isn't giving up better or worse chances to either goalie.

 

Shesterkin isn't making the hard saves a great goalie makes, and his backup having basically the same expectations and the same outcomes except for "Quick makes the big saves" bears out that Igor's a problem right now.

 

 

[Cash or Czech]

Our xGA is 77.6 while our aGA is 85, a significant 7 goal upswing. Our team save % is .902% versus a league average of .898, so it may not be goaltending. We have a Scoring Chances For % of 50.9%, but a High Danger Chances For % of 48.5%, indicating that while we are driving play, we are letting our opponents have the bigger opportunities. We are also not converting our high danger chances as much as the rest of the league, 8.7% for us versus 9.5% for the league. 

 

We've been a team that has struggled to play team defense for years under a plethora of different head coaches with relatively the same core and team identity. We are icing almost exactly the same team, and expecting different results. We actually had different, better results when we were healthier. Then we lost Chytil, then Kakko, got back Fox...we just don't have the depth to make up for decent players. We're icing two fourth lines and our D remains unchanged despite being overall poor defenders.

 

It'd be nice to capture lightning in a bottle with Vezina Shesterkin while we are dealing with these injuries. He's good enough while we are at full health, and as long as we're at full health going into the post-season, that's probably good enough.

Edited January 12 by Cash or Czech

[BrooksBurner]

12 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

Jonathan Quick is outplaying him in front of the same team. 

 

They're the same goalie at low danger - both at .971. They're the same goalie at medium danger - both at .876. At high danger? Quick is at a league-leading .848, performing literally 17% better than expected. Shesterkin is at .736 - and that is still around 7% better than expected, but that's such a huge delta. There's no meaningful difference in the xSave% across the board between the two, suggesting that the team isn't giving up better or worse chances to either goalie.

 

Shesterkin isn't making the hard saves a great goalie makes, and his backup having basically the same expectations and the same outcomes except for "Quick makes the big saves" bears out that Igor's a problem right now.

 

 

Right. “A problem”. Not “the real problem”.

[Pete]

14 minutes ago, Cash or Czech said:

We actually had different, better results when we were healthier. Then we lost Chytil, then Kakko, got back Fox...we just don't have the depth to make up for decent players. We're icing two fourth lines and our D remains unchanged despite being overall poor defenders.

This is it. You can't compare the way the team is playing now to any other team from previous seasons because those teams were healthy and this team isn't. 

[Pete]

7 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

Right. “A problem”. Not “the real problem”.

I said issue not problem. Get the quote right. 

 

It's the biggest issue because it's the most important position on the team and a position which is suffering the greatest regression. 

 

Igor has been worse than advertised and Quick has been better than advertised. 

 

Ergo, Igor is the issue. What would this team look like with a .940 goalie?

 

What would it look like with a .925 goalie? 

 

Every other player gets shit for not being able to perform to their personal standard. Not sure why Igor is exempt from that. 

Edited January 12 by Pete

[siddious]

Shesty hasnt been good. 

 

Separate note: Team defense sucks. Theyre related but not mutually exclusive.

 

The thing about goaltending is that you can make 99/100 saves but the one you let in can be brutal or deflating or just timed so poorly that it kills the game. You pay a guy like Igor to ensure those timely saves are being made. And he's just not doing it. In fact I would argue some of the goals he is letting in are so bad it just makes the games a lot more lopsided than they actually have been.

 

Ill make the argument that he wasnt good last season either regardless of what his final numbers were. I think it was early last season I started calling him Busterkin as a joke but it has sort of taken on a life of its own.

[Morphinity 2.0]

I think, by Valiquette's metrics, the Rangers are last or near last in rush chances against. That's going to consistently put undue stress on your goaltending. 

[Drew a Penalty]

Over the Rangers last 10 games goaltending stats are as follows.

 

Igor Shesterkin

4-3-0, .887 SV%, 3.01 GAA, 2.15 GSAA, .829 HDSV%

 

Jonathan Quick

0-2-1, .879 SV%, 3.70 GAA, -2.15 GSAA, .714 HDSV%

 

Quick is going through a personal slump of his own and hasn't done as well with the shoddy defense in front of him. For as bad as Shesterkin has been, Quick is seemingly worse with the same quality of defense. They desperately need to be healthy and get back to having any semblance of structure.

[RangersIn7]

33 minutes ago, Morphinity 2.0 said:

I think, by Valiquette's metrics, the Rangers are last or near last in rush chances against. That's going to consistently put undue stress on your goaltending. 

They are now cause of recent play

 

Through the first 2 months they were top 5 to top 10 in the league.

 

The lineup is short. Top guys are taking more chances and opening things up more due to the bottom 2 lines being not so good, and they’re giving up more as a result. 

[Pete]

23 minutes ago, Drew a Penalty said:

Over the Rangers last 10 games goaltending stats are as follows.

 

Igor Shesterkin

4-3-0, .887 SV%, 3.01 GAA, 2.15 GSAA, .829 HDSV%

 

Jonathan Quick

0-2-1, .879 SV%, 3.70 GAA, -2.15 GSAA, .714 HDSV%

 

Quick is going through a personal slump of his own and hasn't done as well with the shoddy defense in front of him. For as bad as Shesterkin has been, Quick is seemingly worse with the same quality of defense. They desperately need to be healthy and get back to having any semblance of structure.

Difference being it's expected of Quick.

 

I think we can all agree Igor needs to be a lot better and Quick a little better. 

[Valriera]

When half your team goes down you hope to rely on some of your well played players to step up and get the job done. Igor has not been that person.

 

While I think other people on the list, like Trouba and Mika have been fine, but not necessarily carried anyone, Igor has been actively poor.

 

That said, I think once we get healthy and can play hockey in our own zone again he will look a bit better. Right now we are really giving him nothing

[Dunny]

2 hours ago, LindG1000 said:

Jonathan Quick is outplaying him in front of the same team. 

 

They're the same goalie at low danger - both at .971. They're the same goalie at medium danger - both at .876. At high danger? Quick is at a league-leading .848, performing literally 17% better than expected. Shesterkin is at .736 - and that is still around 7% better than expected, but that's such a huge delta. There's no meaningful difference in the xSave% across the board between the two, suggesting that the team isn't giving up better or worse chances to either goalie.

 

Shesterkin isn't making the hard saves a great goalie makes, and his backup having basically the same expectations and the same outcomes except for "Quick makes the big saves" bears out that Igor's a problem right now.

 

 

 

Quick gets all the muffin assignments, though. High danger chances trying to be converted by lesser than finishers. That's real.

 

The more Quick plays, the more he'll be exposed. The answer isn't Quick, the answer is Igor playing better, or else there is no answer.

[Pete]

3 hours ago, Morphinity 2.0 said:

I think, by Valiquette's metrics, the Rangers are last or near last in rush chances against. That's going to consistently put undue stress on your goaltending. 

This is true. However, Shesty has handled that stress before. He hasn't this season. 

[Gravesy]

15 hours ago, Cash or Czech said:

Our xGA is 77.6 while our aGA is 85, a significant 7 goal upswing. Our team save % is .902% versus a league average of .898, so it may not be goaltending. We have a Scoring Chances For % of 50.9%, but a High Danger Chances For % of 48.5%, indicating that while we are driving play, we are letting our opponents have the bigger opportunities. We are also not converting our high danger chances as much as the rest of the league, 8.7% for us versus 9.5% for the league. 

 

We've been a team that has struggled to play team defense for years under a plethora of different head coaches with relatively the same core and team identity. We are icing almost exactly the same team, and expecting different results. We actually had different, better results when we were healthier. Then we lost Chytil, then Kakko, got back Fox...we just don't have the depth to make up for decent players. We're icing two fourth lines and our D remains unchanged despite being overall poor defenders.

 

It'd be nice to capture lightning in a bottle with Vezina Shesterkin while we are dealing with these injuries. He's good enough while we are at full health, and as long as we're at full health going into the post-season, that's probably good enough.

 

15 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

Right. “A problem”. Not “the real problem”.

 

It's these.

I don't buy the idea that Igor is "the real issue". He's very clearly not playing at his Vezina best, and he's not winning us games, and that's one of many issues. Over the last few weeks, the goalies have been hung out to dry by absolutely hideous team defense. There's only so much a goalie can do when you continuously let the best players in the world take free shots from the slot, whack away to or three times on rebounds, stickhandle unchallenged around the crease and come in on multiple odd man rushes and breakaways.

Yeah, an Igor at his best makes some of the saves he hasn't made lately. And he might even steal a couple of the games we've lost. But relying on goaltending to steal games is not a viable strategy.

This is not a defense of Igor in any way, because he's unquestionably not anywhere near his best, but I think describing him as "the" issue is missing the forest for the trees.

[Pete]

2 hours ago, Gravesy said:

 

 

It's these.

I don't buy the idea that Igor is "the real issue". He's very clearly not playing at his Vezina best, and he's not winning us games, and that's one of many issues. Over the last few weeks, the goalies have been hung out to dry by absolutely hideous team defense. There's only so much a goalie can do when you continuously let the best players in the world take free shots from the slot, whack away to or three times on rebounds, stickhandle unchallenged around the crease and come in on multiple odd man rushes and breakaways.

Yeah, an Igor at his best makes some of the saves he hasn't made lately. And he might even steal a couple of the games we've lost. But relying on goaltending to steal games is not a viable strategy.

This is not a defense of Igor in any way, because he's unquestionably not anywhere near his best, but I think describing him as "the" issue is missing the forest for the trees.

If you don't have Goaltending, you don't have anything. 

 

It's the biggest problem on the team. People are complaining about P/G players like Zib, and picking apart their numbers, but we can't acknowledge a Vezina goalie performing league average as the main problem? Stop it.

 

And forget the numbers, watching the games, he gives up a ton of weak shit. 

 

On top of that...worst sv% when down by 2... He giving up or just can't take the pressure? That's been a knock on him for some time. @Drew a Penalty correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't he a backup for his Russian team during playoffs?

 

Now look, he was stellar 2 years ago all through season and playoff. There's been an obvious regression.

 

Good player playing bad hockey. Bad Goaltending would and any teams biggest problem. 

[RJWantsTheCup]

This is the biggest problem on the team in  11 of 14 losses (79%) the opposition has scored two goals within 4 mins. In 8 of the 14 losses (57%) the opposition has scored two goals within 2 mins.  In 16 of the 40 overall games (40%) the opposition has scored two goals within 4 mins.  
As has been the case for several years the team doesn’t play 60 min games.  Maybe Laviolette should call a timeout after the first goal or the second goal of the game to get the team refocused?  Seems silly but they have to correct this trend.  

Edited January 13 by RJWantsTheCup

[Gravesy]

57 minutes ago, Pete said:

If you don't have Goaltending, you don't have anything. 

 

It's the biggest problem on the team. People are complaining about P/G players like Zib, and picking apart their numbers, but we can't acknowledge a Vezina goalie performing league average as the main problem? Stop it.

 

And forget the numbers, watching the games, he gives up a ton of weak shit. 

 

On top of that...worst sv% when down by 2... He giving up or just can't take the pressure? That's been a knock on him for some time. @Drew a Penalty correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't he a backup for his Russian team during playoffs?

 

Now look, he was stellar 2 years ago all through season and playoff. There's been an obvious regression.

 

Good player playing bad hockey. Bad Goaltending would and any teams biggest problem. 

Well, I just don't agree that good goaltending fixes this team. 

It doesn't matter if you have the love child of Hasek and Roy in net with the team defense currently on display. Like I said, would a peak Igor help? Yes. Would he maybe even steal a couple of games? Again yes.

But you're not doing shit in the playoffs if you play defense as a team the way they've played lately. The Vancouver game, for example. It doesn't matter how good the goalie is, if you give NHL players the that type of time and space in and around the crease goaltending can only take you so far.

So yeah, I fully agree with the criticism of Shesterkin, I just think he's one of several issues rather than the issue.

[Pete]

6 minutes ago, Gravesy said:

Well, I just don't agree that good goaltending fixes this team. 

It doesn't matter if you have the love child of Hasek and Roy in net with the team defense currently on display. Like I said, would a peak Igor help? Yes. Would he maybe even steal a couple of games? Again yes.

But you're not doing shit in the playoffs if you play defense as a team the way they've played lately. The Vancouver game, for example. It doesn't matter how good the goalie is, if you give NHL players the that type of time and space in and around the crease goaltending can only take you so far.

So yeah, I fully agree with the criticism of Shesterkin, I just think he's one of several issues rather than the issue.

Never said it fixes its. Just an obvious problem and the biggest one. There are others.

 

He's not making timely saves or allowing the team to battle back. 

 

I also think there's a lot of recency bias and people judging the team based on their worst stretch while they're riddled with injuries.

[Drew a Penalty]

4 hours ago, Pete said:

@Drew a Penalty correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't he a backup for his Russian team during playoffs?

 

Right. Koskinen started 15/20 games when they won the Gagarin Cup, 15/16 the following playoffs, and then Shesterkin and Hellberg split the crease 10 games each.