NHL Expansion: Back to Atlanta?

[fletch]

There's a reason that pro sports leagues have stopped at 32 teams.  It's hard to justify more than half you league making the playoffs, which equals 16 teams.  16 teams makes for a good playoff structure, and maximizes revenue (rather than having fewer teams).

 

Hockey has gone through expansion phases before, so if you are going to ignore the 32 team cap, you might as well go to 36 to 40 teams.  The league and existing owners get paid by each new franchise that comes into the league.  And you open up new markets.  The counter-arguments about diluting talent, watering down the product, straying from historical roots, etc. don't usually sway leagues and owners very much if you wave dollars in front of their face.

 

Houston and Salt Lake City are the first choices to me because of population size and they have existing arenas where teams could play, although if significant enough sight line or issues exist, then a more hockey friendly facility would be desirable to transition to.

 

Portland, San Diego, Charlotte, Orlando, San Antonio are in a lower tier for me, but potentially feasible.

 

Atlanta is a poor choice because hockey will get less interest than the Falcons, Braves, Hawks, NASCAR, University of Georgia football, Georgia Tech basketball.  Hockey may rank at the same tier as high school football and minor league baseball. And this is coming from someone who lived in Atlanta suburbs for 8 years, including when Thrashers were geographically present but didn't register in the minds of most sports fans in Atlanta.  Yes, the Thrashers had bad ownership and didn't do a good job selling the team.  Yes, the Flames moved from Atlanta to Calgary previously.  The average Atlanta sports fan would look at a new franchise as a novelty for the 5 years that it would be in Atlanta before moving somewhere else.

 

Edit: I forgot golf - I don't know how with the Master's.  People in Atlanta would rather play or watch golf than watch hockey.  

 

In cities like Atlanta during hockey season people can golf, fish, do lake sports, hike, bike, go to the beach - options that are tough in the Rust Belt.

Edited February 1 by fletch
golf

[RichieNextel305]

I haven’t got a clue why Atlanta is a destination here. It’s failed before. You already have a team in this league playing home games in a building that sits 5,000 people. Enough. It’s too much.

 

The market just isn’t a hockey market down there. I have friends down there. None of them really watch hockey. And I don’t think it changes with a team there, because they didn’t watch the Thrashers when they were there. 
 

This is a mistake.

Edited February 1 by RichieNextel305

[RangersIn7]

23 minutes ago, RichieNextel305 said:

I haven’t got a clue why Atlanta is a destination here. It’s failed before. You already have a team in this league playing home games in a building that sits 5,000 people. Enough. It’s too much.

 

The market just isn’t a hockey market down there. I have friends down there. None of them really watch hockey. And I don’t think it changes with a team there, because they didn’t watch the Thrashers when they were there. 
 

This is a mistake.

The pull of Atlanta is understandable, but it’s simply proven not to be a viable market for hockey. 
 

Go somewhere else. 

[LindG1000]

17 minutes ago, RichieNextel305 said:

I haven’t got a clue why Atlanta is a destination here. It’s failed before. You already have a team in this league playing home games in a building that sits 5,000 people. Enough. It’s too much.

 

The market just isn’t a hockey market down there. I have friends down there. None of them really watch hockey. And I don’t think it changes with a team there, because they didn’t watch the Thrashers when they were there. 
 

This is a mistake.

 

Atlanta didn't fail for lack of interest. They failed for the lack of ownership. Turner never wanted to spend money to make them competitive, and when AOL Time Warner sold them to Atlanta Spirit, Spirit immediately tried to flip the team. They never wanted the Thrashers, and it didn't help that the ownership group was functionally non-existent from 2008-2011.

 

It was the same with the Flames.

 

The reason to try Atlanta again is crystal clear and very obvious. Get a good owner in there and get the new expansion rules used for Vegas and Seattle in place, and they've got a money printer.

[RangersIn7]

10 hours ago, LindG1000 said:

 

Why on earth would they put two more teams in Canada, especially one in a city like Quebec? Every dollar a US team makes, a Canadian team needs to make 1.33 to keep up. That, and the reason they left Quebec and Winnipeg in the first place was the weakness of the CAD. Why risk it again?

 

Quebec City is a small city and it is also the biggest city in Canada that doesn't have a pro hockey team. It's metro area population is 800k, or roughly the size of the Boise, ID metro area. Want to put a pro team in Boise? How about Knoxville, TN? Or Albuquerque, NM? Or Rochester, NY? All of those cities have metro areas between 10 and 20% LARGER than QC. This is a long way of saying that QC is never going to be big enough to support an NHL team. Hell, even Salt Lake City has 500K people on QC. I think every time we talk about QC as an expansion city, we forget that they're big for Canada, but not big for the NHL.

 

It's just not happening. 

 

That said, Atlanta? Get them good owners this time, please. They're holding 2 million more potential fans this time around (or 2.5 Quebec Cities more fans). They'll be fine. 

 

Adding this: the markets most ripe for an NHL team are, most likely, as follows:

Houston

Atlanta

San Diego (lord knows that the Padres as the only major team in the city isn't enough for a city of almost 3.5 million)

Orlando

Charlotte

San Antonio

 

All of these cities have three things in common: they're already big (over 2.5 million people), they're growing, and they have enough of a corporate presence to make it work. 

You make a valid point regarding QC… it’s not lost on me nor was I ignoring that aspect. 
 

Id certainly put a 2nd team in the GTA before QC.

 

Im just of the feeling that Canada should have more. 
 

The markets you mentioned are viable too. Not so much Orlando IMO. I live in Florida. There’s really not a need or appetite for a 3rd team down here. But I could see why given the growth. 

[LindG1000]

14 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

You make a valid point regarding QC… it’s not lost on me nor was I ignoring that aspect. 
 

Id certainly put a 2nd team in the GTA before QC.

 

Im just of the feeling that Canada should have more. 
 

The markets you mentioned are viable too. Not so much Orlando IMO. I live in Florida. There’s really not a need or appetite for a 3rd team down here. But I could see why given the growth. 

 

You're not wrong, and the problem isn't so much the philosophy as the math. As we said, QC is the biggest city with no team. At the absolute best, its a second Winnipeg (so, not great for the NHL). But you bring up the GTA - and that is a space that could support two teams. Toronto's a city with a metro area roughly the same size as Atlanta. It's huge.

 

The problem comes with association rules. Any team placed within 60 miles of another team has to pay a separate rights fee to the original team. Short of placing the team in Toronto itself, almost any feasible location for a team (Hamilton, for example) would have the unique issue of having to pay two of those fees - one to the Leafs, and one to the Sabres, who may be "close enough" that it has to happen. In the case of a city like Hamilton, it would, in fact, be within the range.

 

As for Orlando - I'm in the city, and...they're ready for another pro team. Between the growth, tourism, transplants, and the way they embraced Orlando City SC, the message is clear enough. It's enough of a thing that there have been numerous city proposals to try and lure the Rays from Tampa and the Jaguars from Jacksonville, including $500m in renovations to the Citrus Bowl.

[YankInDaSouth]

I mostly lurk on this site and enjoy reading all the knowledgeable posts and banter, but I have to chime on this one. 

 

I live in the Metro Atlanta area and to call Forsyth County "Atlanta" just isn't realistic. Forsyth county is about 41 miles north of the arena where the Thrashers played. North of Forsyth and you're in the foothills of the mountains; so not a dense population and, well, mostyl rednecks that I can't imagine are interested in hockey. That 41 miles is not accessible by any means of public transportation and the interstates/state routes to get from the ATL area to Forsyth Co. are riddled with some of the worse traffic in the country. I cannot foresee anyone in Atlanta (or South of Atlanta) fighting very hellacious traffic to go see hockey. The Thrashers failed whilst being located right in midtown ATL. I know ownership played a part, but I just don't see that area being able to sustain any type of pro franchise as it's just not easily accessible. It is a booming county for sure, but not any sort of metropolis. 

Edited February 1 by YankInDaSouth

[jsm7302]

12 minutes ago, YankInDaSouth said:

I mostly lurk on this site and enjoy reading all the knowledgeable posts and banter, but I have to chime on this one. 

 

I live in the Metro Atlanta area and to call Forsyth County "Atlanta" just isn't realistic. Forsyth county is about 41 miles north of the arena where the Thrashers played. North of Forsyth and you're in the foothills of the mountains; so not a dense population and, well, mostyl rednecks that I can't imagine are interested in hockey. That 41 miles is not accessible by any means of public transportation and the interstates/state routes to get from the ATL area to Forsyth Co. are riddled with some of the worse traffic in the country. I cannot foresee anyone in Atlanta (or South of Atlanta) fighting very hellacious traffic to go see hockey. The Thrashers failed whilst being located right in midtown ATL. I know ownership played a part, but I just don't see that area being able to sustain any type of pro franchise as it's just not easily accessible. It is a booming county for sure, but not any sort of metropolis. 

Appreciate the real boots on the ground analysis of this. Makes you wonder where the polls etc they are using to make the sustainability argument for a franchise. It's bizarre imo to put a hockey team in Atlanta. Texas, Carolinas, etc make all the more sense to me due to population, current minor league teams, etc. Hell even Utah makes more sense in my brain but that has more to do with lack of much else outside of basketball.

[jsm7302]

4 hours ago, LindG1000 said:

 

You're not wrong, and the problem isn't so much the philosophy as the math. As we said, QC is the biggest city with no team. At the absolute best, its a second Winnipeg (so, not great for the NHL). But you bring up the GTA - and that is a space that could support two teams. Toronto's a city with a metro area roughly the same size as Atlanta. It's huge.

 

The problem comes with association rules. Any team placed within 60 miles of another team has to pay a separate rights fee to the original team. Short of placing the team in Toronto itself, almost any feasible location for a team (Hamilton, for example) would have the unique issue of having to pay two of those fees - one to the Leafs, and one to the Sabres, who may be "close enough" that it has to happen. In the case of a city like Hamilton, it would, in fact, be within the range.

 

As for Orlando - I'm in the city, and...they're ready for another pro team. Between the growth, tourism, transplants, and the way they embraced Orlando City SC, the message is clear enough. It's enough of a thing that there have been numerous city proposals to try and lure the Rays from Tampa and the Jaguars from Jacksonville, including $500m in renovations to the Citrus Bowl.

I like the prospect of Orlando. Seems odd that it has taken this long. However I'd rather see the Panthers move there. I can't stand watching games on TV at their arena. Idk if it's the angles or the arena itself but it is terrible imo.

[fletch]

1 hour ago, YankInDaSouth said:

I mostly lurk on this site and enjoy reading all the knowledgeable posts and banter, but I have to chime on this one. 

 

I live in the Metro Atlanta area and to call Forsyth County "Atlanta" just isn't realistic. Forsyth county is about 41 miles north of the arena where the Thrashers played. North of Forsyth and you're in the foothills of the mountains; so not a dense population and, well, mostyl rednecks that I can't imagine are interested in hockey. That 41 miles is not accessible by any means of public transportation and the interstates/state routes to get from the ATL area to Forsyth Co. are riddled with some of the worse traffic in the country. I cannot foresee anyone in Atlanta (or South of Atlanta) fighting very hellacious traffic to go see hockey. The Thrashers failed whilst being located right in midtown ATL. I know ownership played a part, but I just don't see that area being able to sustain any type of pro franchise as it's just not easily accessible. It is a booming county for sure, but not any sort of metropolis. 

I left right before the Braves relocated to I285/75 corner.  How is the traffic situation around I75/285 on Brave game days?  Atlanta traffic was awful during  rush hour when I was there and on game days that NW corner of the loop must be awful.  Everyone in Atlanta loves their car - and even extending train lines to the suburbs gets resistance (bringing the 'undesirables', code-speak for non-whites).  I remember they wanted to keep 400 as a toll road just to limit the people driving into the suburbs.  When I was in suburbs it seemed like all the roads were build for 1960s and 1970s population densities, and it's a rough slog for how much the city has grown.

[LindG1000]

1 hour ago, jsm7302 said:

I like the prospect of Orlando. Seems odd that it has taken this long. However I'd rather see the Panthers move there. I can't stand watching games on TV at their arena. Idk if it's the angles or the arena itself but it is terrible imo.

 

Panthers need to move to Miami already. Their problem is access. That arena is an hour north of Miami on a good day, it's on the ass-end of public transit, and you can literally walk across the street into the Everglades from it, so, you know, if you get drunk and want to find a gator, have at it.

 

Orlando is just...booming. I'm honestly surprised there haven't been discussions around flipping the Solar Bears up to the AHL; Orlando can absolutely handle it. The Solar Bears get over 7500 people in there on average, and they play in the same arena as the Magic. But there's going to be another pro team in Orlando sooner rather than later, may as well be an NHL expansion spot.

 

It's also going to end up being evergreen or at least safe from bad seasons; a bad Orlando team will still sell out every home game on travel alone.

 

 

[YankInDaSouth]

6 minutes ago, fletch said:

I left right before the Braves relocated to I285/75 corner.  How is the traffic situation around I75/285 on Brave game days?  Atlanta traffic was awful during  rush hour when I was there and on game days that NW corner of the loop must be awful.  Everyone in Atlanta loves their car - and even extending train lines to the suburbs gets resistance (bringing the 'undesirables', code-speak for non-whites).  I remember they wanted to keep 400 as a toll road just to limit the people driving into the suburbs.  When I was in suburbs it seemed like all the roads were build for 1960s and 1970s population densities, and it's a rough slog for how much the city has grown.

Fortunately I don't venture up that way too often. I live and work south of Atlanta, thankfully! But I can say getting to Braves games from down here is no fun at all! 

 

They are currently reworking the I285/400 interchange which is a nightmare to navigate! Last time I was up that way it was beyond confusing. 

[RangersIn7]

1 hour ago, LindG1000 said:

 

Panthers need to move to Miami already. Their problem is access. That arena is an hour north of Miami on a good day, it's on the ass-end of public transit, and you can literally walk across the street into the Everglades from it, so, you know, if you get drunk and want to find a gator, have at it.

 

Orlando is just...booming. I'm honestly surprised there haven't been discussions around flipping the Solar Bears up to the AHL; Orlando can absolutely handle it. The Solar Bears get over 7500 people in there on average, and they play in the same arena as the Magic. But there's going to be another pro team in Orlando sooner rather than later, may as well be an NHL expansion spot.

 

It's also going to end up being evergreen or at least safe from bad seasons; a bad Orlando team will still sell out every home game on travel alone.

 

 

Sunrise is a terrible place for an arena.

Always was. Broward County was always the wrong place.

 

[Sod16]

Denver and Minneapolis-St. Paul failed the first time and now are among the strongest franchises.  St. Louis and Pittsburgh were in dire straights and near moving at various points.  There's nothing innate about Atlanta that would make it a bad market where teams seem to do fine in Nashville, Raleigh, Dallas and Tampa.  The Flames experience 40-50 years ago is irrelevent (although I note they outdrew the Atlanta Hawks).  A poorly managed team that makes the the playoffs once in 12 years is a recipe for failure.  The Thrashers gate was typically not that bad, as various teams were worse.

 

All that said, stop at 32, please.  

[LindG1000]

Atlanta's making the case. Anson Carter leading the charge for them.

[Pete]

1 hour ago, LindG1000 said:

Atlanta's making the case. Anson Carter leading the charge for them.

Sure, 3rd time should do it because, well, nothing has changed in terms of dynamics.

[Flynn]

I recently went to Salt Lace City for the first time. No brainer choice for the next expansion team. The Delta Center is great "center city arena , the city was much different  (cooler) than I expected. Great airport that is super convenient.. 

 

Fuck Atlanta- in general. 

[Ozzy]

Just say NO to Atlanta.

 

We've been there and done it...TWICE....Please, No!

[Long live the King]

1 hour ago, Flynn said:

I recently went to Salt Lace City for the first time. No brainer choice for the next expansion team. The Delta Center is great "center city arena , the city was much different  (cooler) than I expected. Great airport that is super convenient.. 

 

Fuck Atlanta- in general. 

 

The Delta center sucks for hockey, but the state legislature is prepared to spend lots of money for new stadiums,  up to a billion each for a new arena and an MLB stadium.  Come back in 10 years and see how much shit they build to get the olympics.

[Beeski]

I lived in Atlanta from 81-98. It has doubled in size since then.  Still get back a few times a year to see family and Georgia Tech football games.  Back in the 90's, I used to split season tix for the minor league Atlanta Knights, front row behind the goal in the Omni which was downtown.

 

The northern suburbs is the most affluent area in metro Atlanta, and it has a healthy % of northern transplants.  A team would do well there.

 

If this is a TV revenue decision, there are two big holes in the top-10 media markets for the NHL:

https://mymediajobs.com/market-rankings

 

Atlanta and Houston.

 

[Sod16]

The NHL needs to stop giving teams to whoever will build an arena, like Columbus, and move teams to the best TV markets.  Houston and Atlanta are vastly larger than Salt Lake City.

 

[Br4d]

37 minutes ago, Sod16 said:

The NHL needs to stop giving teams to whoever will build an arena, like Columbus, and move teams to the best TV markets.  Houston and Atlanta are vastly larger than Salt Lake City.

 

 

The question is: where is the market for NHL hockey?

 

The Bluejackets averaged 17K attendance this year.  That is a hot market for NHL hockey.

[Sod16]

3 hours ago, Br4d said:

 

The question is: where is the market for NHL hockey?

 

The Bluejackets averaged 17K attendance this year.  That is a hot market for NHL hockey.

Whether team a team in Atlanta would average 14K, 15K or 17K, it would add more to TV revenue than a team in Columbus does.

[Long live the King]

TV market is overrated.  SJS and ANH are in big markets.  1 national game between them.  National game focus on star power, rivalries, and good teams from the previous year.

[Beeski]

8 hours ago, Sod16 said:

Whether team a team in Atlanta would average 14K, 15K or 17K, it would add more to TV revenue than a team in Columbus does.

Columbus is Ohio's team.  The entire state follows them, from Cleveland to Cincinnati.  The #19, 32, 36  and 80 media markets combined.

SJS is the entire Bay area, #10 media market

ANH is greater Los Angeles, #2 media market shared by 2 teams

Orlando fans can drive 90 minutes to Tampa to see NHL hockey

 

Having a team in your metro area creates fans of the entire NHL.  If there is no team, then hockey is ignored.  I was watching the Avalanche - Stars game the other day.....because it was the two best teams in the West.....not because I live in either team's footprint.