Y'all Wanna See a Dead Body? Chris Kreider Is the Best First-round Pick in 30 Years

[The Dude]

Cherneski was going to be our power forward of the future.  I believe he blew out a knee and his career was over. 

[RangersIn7]

12 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Cherneski was going to be our power forward of the future.  I believe he blew out a knee and his career was over. 

His knee or leg, something like that. But it was severe. 
And he got that injury quickly. Within a year or so of having been drafted.

 

[RodrigueGabriel]

8 hours ago, RangersIn7 said:

You missed Sanguinetti

Drafted directly before, cough, Claude Giroux.

[MuddyInTheMiddle]

16 hours ago, BlairBettsBlocksEverything said:

fun experiement. who should we have drafted with each of these picks? gonna start with '18

 

2018: Vitali Kravtsov (9), K'Andre Miller (22), Nils Lundkvist (28)

should have taken Joel Farabee at 9. Other two picks are probably as good as we could have gotten. Lundkvist is a seperate issue in that he was traded/blocked for ice time because of D depth. Maybe Rasmus Sandin but that would be the same issue regardless 

 

2017: Lias Andersson (7), Filip Chytil (21)

ugh 2017 hurts. Options over Li-ass. Tippet, Necas, Suzuki, Norris

 

 

2012: Brady Skjei (28).  (as good as we could have gotten

 

2011: J.T. Miller (15). (as good as we could have gotten)

 

2010: Dylan McIlrath (10). (1st choice, a gun with a single bullet to blow our own heads off. 2nd choice, Vlad/Fowler)

 

2009: Chris Kreider (19).  (best pick we could have had)

 

 

2008: Michael Del Zotto (20).    John Carlsson

 

2007: Alexei Cherepanov (17).  - Leaving this one alone

 

2006: Bobby Sanguinetti (21).  (dont need to remind anyone

 

2005: Marc Staal (12).   (a couple of players we could have maybe had success with but cant be mad at the pick)

 

2004: Al Montoya (6).  also Lauri Korpikoski (19)  between 6-19 nothing special. 20 was Travis Zajac, 29 Mike Green

 

2003: Hugh Jessiman (12).  ( the bullet we used in 2010 was actually used here, carry on)

 

2001: Dan Blackburn (10). (injury ended his career so it sucks to do this. But Ales Hemsky. Otherwise nothing special in that first round

 

1999: Pavel Brendl (4)  Lundmark at 9 (so we did have a few multi-first rounders).  first real notable player is at 26 for Havlat

 

1998: Manny Malhotra (7). They rushed him, he had a very good long career. should have been patient. With that said, Tanguay, Gagne, Gomez

 

1997: Stefan Cherneski (19).  Scott Hannan or Brendan Morrow

 

1996: Jeff Brown (22).  Danny Brierre

 

1994: Dan Cloutier (26).  (totally worth it for the goalie fight beatdown against the Isles

 

1993: Niklas Sundstrom (8). Koivu at 21 but that seems like a big reach at the time

 

Great post and research!

 

To me the draft is really like a casino game. There is definitely skill involved, but alot of it is dumb luck; see picks like Cherneski, Cherepanov, or even Cloutier as a prime example of that. You could even argue what a year in the AHL would have done for Kaako or Lafrenaire(no way to tell if management would have parked them there), but there wasn't even really that option due to Covid.

 

This analysis tells that the drafts that they pooped the bed on were 2003 and 2010; it's just unforgivable the talent that was passed over picking that high.

 

To a lesser extent, 2017 & 2018 were saved because they got value out of their other first round picks; but equally unforgivable in that Anderson and Kravtsov were just as much about being head cases, than prospects that simply didn't cut it. Seems to me that it would be much easier to me to be able to scout whether someone doesn't have the right mindset, than whether they can keep up with NHL speed at this level.   

[Long live the King]

4 hours ago, MuddyInTheMiddle said:

 

Great post and research!

 

To me the draft is really like a casino game. There is definitely skill involved, but alot of it is dumb luck; see picks like Cherneski, Cherepanov, or even Cloutier as a prime example of that. You could even argue what a year in the AHL would have done for Kaako or Lafrenaire(no way to tell if management would have parked them there), but there wasn't even really that option due to Covid.

 

This analysis tells that the drafts that they pooped the bed on were 2003 and 2010; it's just unforgivable the talent that was passed over picking that high.

 

To a lesser extent, 2017 & 2018 were saved because they got value out of their other first round picks; but equally unforgivable in that Anderson and Kravtsov were just as much about being head cases, than prospects that simply didn't cut it. Seems to me that it would be much easier to me to be able to scout whether someone doesn't have the right mindset, than whether they can keep up with NHL speed at this level.   

 

This is why I hate the "Rangers suck at drafting" narrative.  Gorton got fired.  Then Drury overhauled the scouting department.   If Gorton didn’t suck we're not having this convo.

[Pete]

18 hours ago, Long live the King said:

 

This is why I hate the "Rangers suck at drafting" narrative.  Gorton got fired.  Then Drury overhauled the scouting department.   If Gorton didn’t suck we're not having this convo.

It's almost absurd as "this is why they only have two cups" as if the same person has been in charge of the whole time .

[Long live the King]

3 hours ago, Pete said:

It's almost absurd as "this is why they only have two cups" as if the same person has been in charge of the whole time .

 

Next it'll be Panarin's fault Hank didn’t win a cup.

[Winter]

This isn’t disagreeing with the post just an observation on Laf/Kakko/Chytil

 

Pts per game Kreider

Age 21: 0.13 / TOI: 10min

Age 22: 0.56 / TOI 15:44(true 1st season)

Age 23: 0.57 / TOI 15:43

Age 24: 0.54 / TOI 16min

 

Pts per game Kakko
Age 18: 0.35 / TOI: 14:17min

Age 19: 0.35 / TOI: 14:21

Age 20: 0.42 / TOI: 15:27

Age 21: 0.49 / TOI: 15:18

 

Pts per game Lafreniere

Age 19: 0.38 / TOI: 13:53min

Age 20: 0.39 / TOI: 14min

Age 21: 0.48 / TOI: 15:13

 

Pts per game Chytil

Age 19: 0.31 / 13:47min

Age 20: 0.38 / 14:50

Age 21: 0.52 / 13:14

Age 22: 0.33 / 13:11

Age 23: 0.61 / 14:41

Obviously offense isn’t everything but it’s what you want from top 1st round picks, Kreider saw more PP time and had experience from NCAA, IF given consistent PP time Laf/Kakko better seize it. They entered the NHL during a bs time period(rona), IMO they never had a real coaching system yet either, just coaches winging it out there but they’re out of excuses now, time to put down the donuts and playstation controllers and get it done. 

 

As for Chytil he needs to stay healthy, work on faceoffs.

 

I hope Laviolette sticks and ends the coaching experiment era which is what we’ve had since 2018. Get a system down and rid of the ones who don’t fit. 

[Br4d]

On 8/27/2023 at 7:09 AM, Pete said:

It's almost absurd as "this is why they only have two cups" as if the same person has been in charge of the whole time .

 

When did Dolan take over?

 

I am a firm believer in the notion that a professional sports team is a reflection of the ownership more than anything else.

 

I think the Knicks struggles were rooted in Dolan taking a very active interest in the team for a couple of decades.

 

I think the Rangers paradigm has been set by the fact that Dolan knows he does not know hockey but has given his appointed brain trust carte blanche to spend whatever they need to spend to get it done.  The problem is that spending is not what wins in hockey.  Drafting is what wins and when you give a guy (like 5 in a row now) a blank check to go get free agents and make trades and a mandate to win they tend to go get free agents and make trades instead of prioritizing the draft overall.

 

The Rangers give less effort on their draft process than any other reasonably successful team.  It's almost like the high drafts are an afterthought because the guy in charge knows that he can always go get his guy in free agency or via trade unless the cap just says no - sometimes even when it does as in the Kane trade last year.

 

The other thing about the Rangers is that the one thing they absolutely have going for them is Benoit Allaire.  He's the best goalie coach in the business and more than anybody else he has helped keep the Rangers stable and productive over the last decade and a half.  Remove him from the equation and the Rangers are a wannabe getting within a few points of a playoff spot every year based on the free agent acquisitions.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Br4d

[Br4d]

Think of it this way: if the Rangers did not get the #1 and #2 overall picks a few years ago this would be one of the oldest veteran teams in the NHL and we'd likely have shored up the competitive base by acquiring a few more relatively high ticket players and trading a few more guys who might break out because they weren't ready to go right now.

 

Look at the picks of the last few years.  Buried at the AHL level and having a very hard time getting a real look with the Rangers.

 

Cuylle would be on the third line of most of the competitive and all of the uncompetitive teams by now.  He'd have gotten there last season and for better or worse he'd be getting minutes now.  Othman would definitely make most teams out of camp this year in a middle 6 role as they tried to get him going full speed.

 

You can't keep doing the same thing over and over again and not expect the wheels to fall off at some point.

[MuddyInTheMiddle]

1 minute ago, Br4d said:

 

When did Dolan take over?

 

I am a firm believer in the notion that a professional sports team is a reflection of the ownership more than anything else.

 

I think the Knicks struggles were rooted in Dolan taking a very active interest in the team for a couple of decades.

 

I think the Rangers paradigm has been set by the fact that Dolan knows he does not know hockey but has given his appointed brain trust carte blanche to spend whatever they need to spend to get it done.  The problem is that spending is not what wins in hockey.  Drafting is what wins and when you give a guy (like 5 in a row now) a blank check to go get free agents and a mandate to win they tend to go get free agents instead of prioritizing the draft overall.

 

The Rangers give less effort on their draft process than any other reasonably successful team.  It's almost like the high drafts are an afterthought because the guy in charge knows that he can always go get his guy in free agency unless the cap just says no - sometimes even when it does as in the Kane signing last year.

 

The other thing about the Rangers is that the one thing they absolutely have going for them is Benoit Allaire.  He's the best goalie coach in the business and more than anybody else he has helped keep the Rangers stable and productive over the last decade and a half.  remove him from the equation and the Rangers are a wannabe getting within a few points of a playoff spot every year based on the free agent acquisitions.

 

I don't buy that thought process. Why couldn't any or all of those 5 guys you mentioned pursue free agents and develop draft talent? It's not a binary choice.

 

To me the real rationalization is simply that he had the wrong 5 guys in charge.

 

Even though I am not entirely sold on either Gorton being the wrong guy(what he is doing in Montreal is starting to change my mind though), and/or Drury being the right guy(I do get more confidence with him as the months go on). Both have warts, but also have made some very solid moves.

[Br4d]

2 minutes ago, MuddyInTheMiddle said:

 

I don't buy that thought process. Why couldn't any or all of those 5 guys you mentioned pursue free agents and develop draft talent? It's not a binary choice.

 

To me the real rationalization is simply that he had the wrong 5 guys in charge.

 

Even though I am not entirely sold on either Gorton being the wrong guy(what he is doing in Montreal is starting to change my mind though), and/or Drury being the right guy(I do get more confidence with him as the months go on). Both have warts, but also have made some very solid moves.

 

When you see the same thing over and over again it's got to be a fault in the overall structure and the only thing that has remained the same over those 5 guys is Dolan.

 

Don't get me wrong - the Rangers have been competitive for most of the last two decades.  However that competitiveness comes with one name attached: Benoit Allaire.

 

Even the guys who leave are very good, see one Alexandar Georgiev for reference.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Br4d

[MuddyInTheMiddle]

2 minutes ago, Br4d said:

Think of it this way: if the Rangers did not get the #1 and #2 overall picks a few years ago this would be one of the oldest veteran teams in the NHL and we'd likely have shored up the competitive base by acquiring a few more relatively high ticket players and trading a few more guys who might break out because they weren't ready to go right now.

 

Look at the picks of the last few years.  Buried at the AHL level and having a very hard time getting a real look with the Rangers.

 

Cuylle would be on the third line of most of the competitive and all of the uncompetitive teams by now.  He'd have gotten there last season and for better or worse he'd be getting minutes now.  Othman would definitely make most teams out of camp this year in a middle 6 role as they tried to get him going full speed.

 

You can't keep doing the same thing over and over again and not expect the wheels to fall off at some point.

 

Don't buy that one either.

 

Lafrenaire, Kaako, Chytil, Miller, Schneider, Lingdren are all entrenched on the NHL roster. Kravtsov played 28 games in the NHL last sesason; there is not a nicer way to say it other than he sucked. Jones also played in a handful of NHL games and his lack of size & strength was exposed quickly. Hoping that he is able to stick this season, as I really like his creativity.

 

As for your example of Cuyllle and Othman; they both have opportunities this season.

 

Othman was returned to juniors after a great camp last year because they felt his development would be better served there playing 50-60 games at 18+ minutes per night rather than on the 4th line at 8 minutes a night and having to work up from there. There was no option to send him to the AHL. It's fair to disagree with the decision, but it's not like he was knocking Panarin or Kreider of of LW1 & LW2.

 

Cuyllye needed another year to develop in the AHL after a very "meh" camp and at 21 has the path cleared for him this year. All that he needs to do is push Tyler Pitlick and Alex Bezille(as well as everyone on the depth chart below them) out of the way during training camp. If he can't do that, how do you justify a spot for him on the NHL roster?      

[MuddyInTheMiddle]

10 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

When you see the same thing over and over again it's got to be a fault in the overall structure and the only thing that has remained the same over those 5 guys is Dolan.

 

Don't get me wrong - the Rangers have been competitive for most of the last two decades.  However that competitiveness comes with one name attached: Benoit Allaire.

 

Even the guys who leave are very good, see one Alexandar Georgiev for reference.

 

I don't want to take anything away from Benoit Allaire, because he is far and widely regarded as the best in the business. Having said that, 2 Hall of Fame goalies named Richter and Lunqvist with a crap ton of mediocre goaltending in between might have had something to do with that.

 

As for the 5 guys(I can only think of 4); two of them(Smith & Sather) had the gig for 20+ of the last 28 years of Dolan's tenure. The third guy(Gorton) who had the gig for another 6 of those years was very committed to drafting & development and did an OK job at it. He did do the walking and chewing gum thing(drafting and free agents) that I mentioned above.

 

Finally Drury has had the job for about 2 years. Way too soon to comment on his ability to draft, and that he didn't even really have any draft picks in 2022, you probably won't get a realistic read on his and his scouting department's acumen until at least 2025.     

[RangersIn7]

27 minutes ago, MuddyInTheMiddle said:

 

I don't want to take anything away from Benoit Allaire, because he is far and widely regarded as the best in the business. Having said that, 2 Hall of Fame goalies named Richter and Lunqvist with a crap ton of mediocre goaltending in between might have had something to do with that.

 

As for the 5 guys(I can only think of 4); two of them(Smith & Sather) had the gig for 20+ of the last 28 years of Dolan's tenure. The third guy(Gorton) who had the gig for another 6 of those years was very committed to drafting & development and did an OK job at it. He did do the walking and chewing gum thing(drafting and free agents) that I mentioned above.

 

Finally Drury has had the job for about 2 years. Way too soon to comment on his ability to draft, and that he didn't even really have any draft picks in 2022, you probably won't get a realistic read on his and his scouting department's acumen until at least 2025.     

Allaire never coached Richter. He wasn’t hired till 04/05, 2 years after Richter retired. 

[MuddyInTheMiddle]

Just now, RangersIn7 said:

Allaire never coached Richter. He wasn’t hired till 04/05, 2 years after Richter retired. 

 

So that makes my point even stronger that even though he has been there for the majority of Dolan's tenure, he is NOT the difference maker even though I don't think anyone can doubt that he was definitely a contributor to their success. 

[RangersIn7]

2 hours ago, MuddyInTheMiddle said:

 

So that makes my point even stronger that even though he has been there for the majority of Dolan's tenure, he is NOT the difference maker even though I don't think anyone can doubt that he was definitely a contributor to their success. 

I no think we’ve noticed Allaire’s impact more in the way with the backup guy’s they’ve had

Theyve done well here, with few exceptions 

[Pete]

3 hours ago, MuddyInTheMiddle said:

 

Don't buy that one either.

 

Lafrenaire, Kaako, Chytil, Miller, Schneider, Lingdren are all entrenched on the NHL roster. Kravtsov played 28 games in the NHL last sesason; there is not a nicer way to say it other than he sucked. Jones also played in a handful of NHL games and his lack of size & strength was exposed quickly. Hoping that he is able to stick this season, as I really like his creativity.

 

As for your example of Cuyllle and Othman; they both have opportunities this season.

 

Othman was returned to juniors after a great camp last year because they felt his development would be better served there playing 50-60 games at 18+ minutes per night rather than on the 4th line at 8 minutes a night and having to work up from there. There was no option to send him to the AHL. It's fair to disagree with the decision, but it's not like he was knocking Panarin or Kreider of of LW1 & LW2.

 

Cuyllye needed another year to develop in the AHL after a very "meh" camp and at 21 has the path cleared for him this year. All that he needs to do is push Tyler Pitlick and Alex Bezille(as well as everyone on the depth chart below them) out of the way during training camp. If he can't do that, how do you justify a spot for him on the NHL roster?      

Agree with a lot of this post. I think there are some generalizations being made (by people who don't actually watch the players right now, mind you) and they go "A first round pick should be in the league by X, second round pick by Y" with little regard to the players being human beings with things to work on, "development" some would say...

 

This is why you can't rebuild in NY. Lack of patience with these kids, and the misunderstanding that the NHL is not a developmental league. A player coming from college or junior may need time in the AHL. Some of us were begging to have Laugh and Kakko sent to the AHL to work on things like skating, which is not worked on during the regular season at the NHL level for obvious reasons.

[Phil]

On 8/26/2023 at 12:48 PM, Long live the King said:

 

This is why I hate the "Rangers suck at drafting" narrative.  Gorton got fired.  Then Drury overhauled the scouting department.   If Gorton didn’t suck we're not having this convo.

 

Except they do suck at drafting. Look at the list in the OP again. It spans a stretch of 30+ years — well beyond the Gorton years. Gorton's selections are some of the worst, no doubt, but this has been an organizational problem for as long as I've been a fan.

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, Pete said:

Agree with a lot of this post. I think there are some generalizations being made (by people who don't actually watch the players right now, mind you) and they go "A first round pick should be in the league by X, second round pick by Y" with little regard to the players being human beings with things to work on, "development" some would say...

 

This is why you can't rebuild in NY. Lack of patience with these kids, and the misunderstanding that the NHL is not a developmental league. A player coming from college or junior may need time in the AHL. Some of us were begging to have Laugh and Kakko sent to the AHL to work on things like skating, which is not worked on during the regular season at the NHL level for obvious reasons.

 

I'd argue that the reason you can't rebuild in NY has nothing to do with fans — it has everything to do with ownership, who have no stomach for any kind of prolonged losing because prolonged losing doesn't sell tickets. The "rebuild" the Rangers just went through screams of exactly the amount of time Dolan would sit by and watch for, which was about two years, maybe. And even then, he wasn't going to stand by and watch Panarin or Trouba or whomever walk past his team when they were made available.

[Pete]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I'd argue that the reason you can't rebuild in NY has nothing to do with fans — it has everything to do with ownership, who have no stomach for any kind of prolonged losing because prolonged losing doesn't sell tickets. The "rebuild" the Rangers just went through screams of exactly the amount of time Dolan would sit by and watch for, which was about two years, maybe. And even then, he wasn't going to stand by and watch Panarin or Trouba or whomever walk past his team when they were made available.

So like I said. Fans.

[Drew a Penalty]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Except they do suck at drafting. Look at the list in the OP again. It spans a stretch of 30+ years — well beyond the Gorton years. Gorton's selections are some of the worst, no doubt, but this has been an organizational problem for as long as I've been a fan.

We discussed this offline but it’s largely because this has been a Sather run organization for the last 25 years. There’s an organizational mindset based in the comfort of doing things as been done. Very much an “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” type approach. I think the changes Drury has made over the last few years signify a moving away from how Sather and his disciples would have done things, but Drury is still a disciple himself.

 

Like I said offline, until proven otherwise, Drury may have the keys to the car but he doesn’t own it.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Pete said:

So like I said. Fans.

 

But it's not fans. It's the owner not willing to stomach not having fans in the building, buying jerseys, etc. The fans themselves, I think, would mostly be OK with a "true" rebuild. It's not fun, but a good chunk of them would be willing to wait it out. They actually did a really great job with The Letter of basically priming them for it. It was just seriously short-lived.

[Pete]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

But it's not fans. It's the owner not willing to stomach not having fans in the building, buying jerseys, etc. The fans themselves, I think, would mostly be OK with a "true" rebuild. It's not fun, but a good chunk of them would be willing to wait it out. They actually did a really great job with The Letter of basically priming them for it. It was just seriously short-lived.

You're contradicting yourself. You're saying the owner won't put up with an empty building and in the next sentence you're saying the fans would be fine with it...So then there should be no empty building. Which is it?

[BrooksBurner]

30 minutes ago, Pete said:

Agree with a lot of this post. I think there are some generalizations being made (by people who don't actually watch the players right now, mind you) and they go "A first round pick should be in the league by X, second round pick by Y" with little regard to the players being human beings with things to work on, "development" some would say...

 

This is why you can't rebuild in NY. Lack of patience with these kids, and the misunderstanding that the NHL is not a developmental league. A player coming from college or junior may need time in the AHL. Some of us were begging to have Laugh and Kakko sent to the AHL to work on things like skating, which is not worked on during the regular season at the NHL level for obvious reasons.

This generalization stinks though. Tell the Devils it‘s not when Hughes was garbage his first couple of seasons and they let him cook in the pros anyway, or the Sens when Stutzle sucked his first couple of seasons. Neither were actually ready for the pros, and both franchises let them play important minutes because they had zero expectations of winning. They wanted to develop them and they were ok with that.