Staple Lafreniere 'Hasn't Shown the Level of Dedication to His Offseason Work,'

[Sharpshooter]

2 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

I’ll be concerned and lean towards bust if he’s given a primary role on the PP and the totals look the same. I think we both know a significant PP role isn’t happening though, barring a surprising trade this summer.

Right. Especially if they bring back Kane. That probably affects Kakko as well.

[Pete]

24 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

Lafreniere’s most common line combo year 1 was Zibanejad and Buchnevich. Year 2 Zibanejad and Kreider. This past year was the only year he was “third line” with the other 2 kids, and I think across the season playing against different clubs every night, the whole idea of enforcing such drastic matchup hockey across the top 9 is overstated anyway.

He spent half his time with Kakko and Chytil in 20-21. When he was with Zib the line flopped with a 41%cf.

 

In 21-22 he did so well that he was replaced by 4th rounder Frank Vatrano at the deadline. 

 

Last year, which was the year he set career highs in points, was as a third liner. 

 

You can look at his combination log and see that he's been shuffled around the lineup because he doesn't fit anywhere. 

 

You can compare him to RNH, but he was largely considered a disappointment as a number one overall as well. He's been a mostly 60 point player, until this season where scoring across the league exploded. 

 

The point is the guys you're comparing to came into the league and were immediately forced to be the focal point of other teams defenses. Lafreniere was simply never in that position and never excelled at any role given. 

 

 

[RangersIn7]

While I don’t necessarily agree, I completely get the bust label. 
 

Though he has the opportunity at this point to change that narrative. 
 

Hopefully he’s hooked himself up with a good trainer and a good skating coach and is working hard. 
 

Has there been any data out there regarding what he might be up to this summer?

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

39 minutes ago, Pete said:

The point is the guys you're comparing to came into the league and were immediately forced to be the focal point of other teams defenses.

This is not true. RNH, Hischier, even Hughes were not good their first seasons. If they were drafted to the 2020 NYR they would all play 3rd or 4th line minutes the first few seasons, just like Laf.

[BrooksBurner]

53 minutes ago, Pete said:

He spent half his time with Kakko and Chytil in 20-21. When he was with Zib the line flopped with a 41%cf.

 

In 21-22 he did so well that he was replaced by 4th rounder Frank Vatrano at the deadline. 

 

Last year, which was the year he set career highs in points, was as a third liner. 

 

You can look at his combination log and see that he's been shuffled around the lineup because he doesn't fit anywhere. 

 

You can compare him to RNH, but he was largely considered a disappointment as a number one overall as well. He's been a mostly 60 point player, until this season where scoring across the league exploded. 

 

The point is the guys you're comparing to came into the league and were immediately forced to be the focal point of other teams defenses. Lafreniere was simply never in that position and never excelled at any role given. 

 

 

 

You said he hasn't faced the level of competition as the others have, and it's just not true. He played significant minutes with Zibanejad the first two years. IIRC year 1 was no training camp and thrown right into regular season games because of covid. Everyone wrote off year 1, so I could care less about pulling corsi or most of these other stats. I did notice you cherry picked corsi and ignored the 58% GF% that Laf/Zib/Buch line posted though.

 

Yes, the kid line clicked and he's not a RW, so he stayed on the kid line in his natural position while Vatrano and Copp played RW. Riveting.

 

He probably doesn't fit at RW because he's not a RW, and that experiment had to be forced because Kreider decided to pot 50 goals and deserved to stick as a top line LW even though I argued Kreids was an excellent candidate to be moved over. Laf was consistently LW with Chytil as he should have been because it's the position he plays. It should be where he is next season too.

 

His 5v5 numbers are better than RNH, especially the goal scoring. Disappointment is ultimately linked to hype. Lafreniere was supposed to be somewhere near the top of the tier below McDavid and Matthews. His 5v5 production is at that level, as surprising as that might seem given the lack of explosiveness via eye test. The eye test can be debated all day long, of which I'm wishy washy. He goes through spouts of invisibility (completely invisible in the NJD series) and making quality plays, yet the 5v5 production is in line with other 1 OA picks. Maybe he's just knows where to go on the ice, indicating a higher IQ, and the physical will catch up.

 

Re: last paragraph, yes, he didn't step in and have to be the guy like most if not all of those other guys, but you can't discount his unique position that those other guys didn't experience either. You don't know how these other guys would have done in his position either. The fact remains his 5v5 production is still in line and competitive despite his shortcomings, and we all agree he's not even close to where he needs to be yet physically.

Edited June 26, 2023 by BrooksBurner

[Morphinity 2.0]

1 hour ago, BrooksBurner said:

I’ll be concerned and lean towards bust if he’s given a primary role on the PP and the totals look the same. I think we both know a significant PP role isn’t happening though, barring a surprising trade this summer.

I can buy his lack of PP time is suppressing his point production, but that doesn't account for the fact he doesn't do anything particularly impressive with the ice time he does get. If he was dazzling with his obvious skills, blowing past players with blazing speed, or doing something actually beneficial, it would be a different story.

 

Like I hate to "eye test" this discussion, but I think it's valid in this case - especially when the article in the OP talks about his lack of dedication and preparation.

[Drew a Penalty]

36 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

This is not true. RNH, Hischier, even Hughes were not good their first seasons. If they were drafted to the 2020 NYR they would all play 3rd or 4th line minutes the first few seasons, just like Laf.

Nuge had 52 points in 62 games. He was a lock for the Calder that year had he not gotten injured. He was soured on after the fact. Nuge up until injury seemed legit.

[BrooksBurner]

1 minute ago, Morphinity 2.0 said:

I can buy his lack of PP time is suppressing his point production, but that doesn't account for the fact he doesn't do anything particularly impressive with the ice time he does get. If he was dazzling with his obvious skills, blowing past players with blazing speed, or doing something actually beneficial, it would be a different story.

 

Like I hate to "eye test" this discussion, but I think it's valid in this case - especially when the article in the OP talks about his lack of dedication and preparation.

 

It's absolutely a valid part of it. I just don't think he's lucking into this 5v5 production, or that he's getting all these trash 4th line matchups. There's something there. Be it high hockey sense knowing the areas of the ice he has to get to, the ability to make plays when he has space, excellent hand-eye coordination. He does have good vision and a good shot, but it's so inconsistent seeing it because he has next to no ability to create time and space for himself. His strength and speed is all below average. Strength and speed is where the focus needs to be.

 

It's quite a contrast with Kakko, whose strength, size, and edge work with the puck on his stick allows him to create space and maintain possession. It looks good from an eye test POV, but the production hasn't tracked. Last year there was a nice little uptick, and he still barely outproduced Lafreniere after being clearly head and shoulders more physically able than Laf. Kakko seems to lack knowing where to go with the puck, or where to be without the puck in the OZ. That's the hockey sense part. That's arguably tougher to fix than hitting the training room hard in the offseason.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

3 minutes ago, Drew a Penalty said:

Nuge had 52 points in 62 games. He was a lock for the Calder that year had he not gotten injured. He was soured on after the fact. Nuge up until injury seemed legit.

Totally forgot that. Just remember he struggled for most of his NHL career and I thought the 12/13 season was his first, since he played half the season in the A.

 

Still think my point stands tho. He had a good 60 games in his first season, but no team was actively game-planning against RNH. He was also gifted a spot on the 1st line with Eberle and Hall because their centers were Gagner, Horcoff, Belanger and Petrell.

[Pete]

48 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

This is not true. RNH, Hischier, even Hughes were not good their first seasons. If they were drafted to the 2020 NYR they would all play 3rd or 4th line minutes the first few seasons, just like Laf.

So it's like I just said, they came into the league and were not able to hide behind better players. 

[Pete]

39 minutes ago, Morphinity 2.0 said:

I can buy his lack of PP time is suppressing his point production, but that doesn't account for the fact he doesn't do anything particularly impressive with the ice time he does get. If he was dazzling with his obvious skills, blowing past players with blazing speed, or doing something actually beneficial, it would be a different story.

 

Like I hate to "eye test" this discussion, but I think it's valid in this case - especially when the article in the OP talks about his lack of dedication and preparation.

The eye test is the reason he's not higher up in the lineup and on the power play. 

[Pete]

7 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

It's absolutely a valid part of it. I just don't think he's lucking into this 5v5 production, or that he's getting all these trash 4th line matchups. There's something there. Be it high hockey sense knowing the areas of the ice he has to get to, the ability to make plays when he has space, excellent hand-eye coordination. He does have good vision and a good shot, but it's so inconsistent seeing it because he has next to no ability to create time and space for himself. His strength and speed is all below average. Strength and speed is where the focus needs to be.

 

It's quite a contrast with Kakko, whose strength, size, and edge work with the puck on his stick allows him to create space and maintain possession. It looks good from an eye test POV, but the production hasn't tracked. Last year there was a nice little uptick, and he still barely outproduced Lafreniere after being clearly head and shoulders more physically able than Laf. Kakko seems to lack knowing where to go with the puck, or where to be without the puck in the OZ. That's the hockey sense part. That's arguably tougher to fix than hitting the training room hard in the offseason.

Laugh five on five production is based on the fact he's playing with two players who are much better than he is. 

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

1 minute ago, Pete said:

So it's like I just said, they came into the league and were not able to hide behind better players. 

Hide behind better players? Or being burried behind better players?

 

I'm not sure what your point is here.

[Pete]

2 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

Hide behind better players? Or being burried behind better players?

 

I'm not sure what your point is here.

 

2 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

Hide behind better players? Or being burried behind better players?

 

I'm not sure what your point is here.

My point is that whether he's on the third line, or playing with two other stars, he is never the focal point of other team's defenses. He should have been flourishing. He's barely treading water. 

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

4 minutes ago, Pete said:

 

My point is that whether he's on the third line, or playing with two other stars, he is never the focal point of other team's defenses. He should have been flourishing. He's barely treading water. 

Fair point, but that's true for most 18-21y olds, even 1OA. Hughes didn't do it before his 3rd season, Hischier his 5h, RNH have never been that guy (his first season he was on a line with Hall and Eberle).

 

I get your point and I agree. I don't see anything special with this kid and I would gladly take a 60-point two-way forward with how things stand at the moment, but I don't think it's as bad as you make it out to be. If anything you have to agree it's a bit impressive to score 15 goals/season on the 3rd line without PP while looking like shit.

[BrooksBurner]

3 minutes ago, Pete said:

The eye test is the reason he's not higher up in the lineup and on the power play. 

 

No. He's been blocked. If it were open and he wasn't getting it, then we could verifiably claim eye test is the reason. We just established the other 1OAs were taken by teams where they stepped right into a top role because a lack of competition challenging for those spots on those teams. Eye test didn't have anything to do with it for them. Those teams just didn't have a 50 goal scorer and a 95 point scorer at the same position.

[RangersIn7]

Eye test hasn’t been good.

Nor have the on ice results in terms of production, even with the circumstances, which have been a mix of favorable and unfavorable. 

 

But again…, he can absolutely change the narrative. You can talk about the 1OVA and what it means till you’re blue in the face. We’ve seen no shortage of guys underachieving and then figure it out and blossom.
 

He needs to work his ass off this summer. He needs to use this stuff as fuel. 
Let’s see if that alleged chip on his shoulder is a real thing.

If it is, he likely says… “Oh yeah, fuck you guys, here’s what I can do.”

 

Hope he does his part.

[Pete]

56 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

Fair point, but that's true for most 18-21y olds, even 1OA. Hughes didn't do it before his 3rd season, Hischier his 5h, RNH have never been that guy (his first season he was on a line with Hall and Eberle).

 

I get your point and I agree. I don't see anything special with this kid and I would gladly take a 60-point two-way forward with how things stand at the moment, but I don't think it's as bad as you make it out to be. If anything you have to agree it's a bit impressive to score 15 goals/season on the 3rd line without PP while looking like shit.

Of course anybody can make any singular argument, but when you look at the whole package, for a first overall to barely be treading water and hitting 15 goals on the third line while doing nothing to improve his station by showing glimpses of star power is pretty disappointing and I would consider him to be a bust. 

 

Sure, you can say he's buried on the third line, but he could be dominating on the third line and showing everybody why he was drafted first overall and he can't even do it. 

Edited June 26, 2023 by Pete

[RangersIn7]

2 minutes ago, Pete said:

Of course anybody can make any singular argument, but when you look at the whole package, for a first overall to barely be treading water and hitting 15 goals on the third line while doing nothing to improve his station by showing glimpses of star power is pretty disappointing and I would consider him to be a bust. 

 

Sure, you can say he's buried on the third line, but he could be dominating on the third line and showing everybody why he was drafted first overall and he can't even do it. 

Yup.

 

Just hoping it’s more due to his conditioning and such. 
 

We will know for sure this season I believe.

[BrooksBurner]

42 minutes ago, Pete said:

Of course anybody can make any singular argument, but when you look at the whole package, for a first overall to barely be treading water and hitting 15 goals on the third line while doing nothing to improve his station by showing glimpses of star power is pretty disappointing and I would consider him to be a bust. 

 

Sure, you can say he's buried on the third line, but he could be dominating on the third line and showing everybody why he was drafted first overall and he can't even do it. 

Yet he’s producing in line with other 1OAs through 3 years. It seems that “dominating” has taken time for most 1OA Fs.

[RangersIn7]

15 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

Yet he’s producing in line with other 1OAs through 3 years. It seems that “dominating” has taken time for most 1OA Fs.

There’s truth to that. And I’ve defended him quite a bit. 
 

I still think he can absolutely turn it around, and I don’t think he’s been bad either, but he’s been underwhelming. 

[Pete]

3 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

Yet he’s producing in line with other 1OAs through 3 years. It seems that “dominating” has taken time for most 1OA Fs.

If finding obscure stats that nobody subscribes to makes you feel better about what's happening, then that's cool. But you're only diluting yourself. 

[BrooksBurner]

8 minutes ago, Pete said:

If finding obscure stats that nobody subscribes to makes you feel better about what's happening, then that's cool. But you're only diluting yourself. 

There is nothing obscure about basic 5v5 stats. You just don’t like what they say.

[Pete]

3 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

There is nothing obscure about basic 5v5 stats. You just don’t like what they say.

You're right, they say he's a bust. And I don't like it. 

[Sod16]

41 minutes ago, Pete said:

You're right, they say he's a bust. And I don't like it. 

 

The slow feet say he's a bust, the advanced stats say he's a bust, the little beard says he's a bust, and watching just about any other recent 1OA says he's a bust.