Playoffs 2022-23 ECQF: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

[Phil]

(2A) Toronto Maple Leafs vs. (3A) Tampa Bay Lightning

Tue., April 18: Lightning at Maple Leafs, 7:30 p.m. ET, SNE, SNO, SNP, CBC, TVAS, ESPN

Thu., April 20: Lightning at Maple Leafs, 7 p.m. ET, SN, CBC, TVAS, ESPN

Sat., April 22: Maple Leafs at Lightning, 7 p.m. ET, TBS, SN, CBC, TVAS

Mon., April 24: Maple Leafs at Lightning, 7:30 p.m. ET, TBS, SNE, SNO, SNP, CBC

Thur., April 27: Lightning at Maple Leafs, TBA

Sat., April 29: Maple Leafs at Lightning, TBA

Mon., May 1: Lightning at Maple Leafs, TBA

REGULAR SEASON STANDINGS:

Maple Leafs: 50-21-11, 111 points

Lightning: 46-30-6, 98 points

SEASON SERIES:

TOR 2-0-1; TBL 1-2-0

 

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GAME BREAKERS:

Maple Leafs: Marner is the heartbeat of the Maple Leafs. The 25-year-old had 99 points (30 goals, 69 assists) and was looking to become only the fourth Toronto player ever to crack the 100-point barrier, joining Matthews (last season) and Hall of Famers Doug Gilmour (1992-93, 1993-94) and Darryl Sittler (1977-78). He had 36 power-play points and kills penalties as well (he scored four short-handed goals). However, for the Maple Leafs to be successful in this series, Marner will need to improve his postseason stats of 33 points (seven goals, 26 assists) in 39 games.

 

Lightning: Kucherov eclipsed the 100-point barrier for the third time in his career, scoring 113 points (30 goals, 83 assists). It's the postseason where the 29-year-old really shines. He is averaging 1.13 points per game in the Stanley Cup Playoffs during his career with 154 points (52 goals, 102 assists) in 136 games. Kucherov leads the postseason in scoring the past three seasons with 93 points (23 goals, 70 assists) in 71 games, almost 30 points more than Nathan MacKinnon of the Avalanche, who is second with 64 points (30 goals, 34 assists) in 45 games during that span.

 

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GOALTENDING:

Maple Leafs: After being given some time off late in the season to heal various bumps and bruises, Ilya Samsonov is expected to be the starter for Toronto. He's earned it. The 26-year-old was 27-10-5 with 2.33 goals-against average, .919 save percentage and four shutouts in 42 games (40 starts) for the Maple Leafs and beat out Matt Murray for the job. Of more concern is his previous postseason struggles; he's 1-6, those results coming in 2021 and 2022 while with the Washington Capitals. Joseph Woll, who played in seven games for Toronto this season (6-1-0, 2.16 GAA, .932 save percentage) could start the series as the backup if Murray remains sidelined. 

 

Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy is the best in the business, especially in the postseason. He backstopped the Lightning to championships in 2020 and 2021 and won the Conn Smythe Trophy as the Stanley Cup Playoffs most valuable player in 2021. Most impressively, he's had a shutout in six of the Lightning's last seven series-clinching wins. Backup Brian Elliott was 12-8-2 with a 3.40 GAA, .891 save percentage and two shutouts in 22 games this season and has 48 games of postseason experience.

 

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X FACTORS:

Maple Leafs: O'Reilly plays with the unique combination of passion, ferocity and leadership. He can play on each of the top three lines; can play center or wing, depending on the situation; can help ease some of the pressure off Tavares in the face-off circle; and brings the pedigree of a former Cup winner into the dressing room. He was exactly what this team lacked.

 

Lightning: Victor Hedman's 49 points (nine goals, 40 assists) was his second-lowest total in the past seven years, only besting the 45 he scored during the 56-game shortened season in 2020-21. But don't be misled. At 32-years-old, the veteran defenseman is well aware of when to conserve energy and when to step on the gas when it matters. And the postseason matters. His penchant of gobbling up minutes and dictating the flow and tempo of games makes him the most important player on the Lightning not named Vasilevskiy. Hedman won the Conn Smythe in 2020.

 

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WILL WIN IF:

Maple Leafs: They can overcome a pair of obstacles. First off, their skilled core needs to elevate when it matters most. Tavares, Marner, Nylander and Matthews were outscored by Paul in Game 7 last year. If they want to take the next step this time around, something like that can't happen. Second, they need to mentally get past the fact that this team hasn't won a series in 19 years. They have helped create that baggage; now they have to cast it off if they want to get past it.

 

Lightning: They can turn up the intensity to the level of their past three postseason runs. Look, there is a lot of mileage on a team that has made three consecutive appearances in the Stanley Cup Final. Regular-season inconsistency and fatigue is understandable. If Point, Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman and Vasilevskiy can up their games to the next level, we all know the championship pedigree is here.

 

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MORE:

https://www.nhl.com/news/2023-stanley-cup-playoffs-toronto-vs-tampa-bay-1st-round-preview/c-343551242?tid=343064084

[Phil]

It's the Leafs. It's the first round. It's going seven. Flip a coin.

[Kevin]

Sooner or later the Leafs will have to advance past round 1.  Why not this year?

[Ozzy]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

It's the Leafs. It's the first round. It's going seven. Flip a coin.

 

My coin flip said "Tampa" in 7

[Sharpshooter]

Toronto was booed off the ice after being down 3-0 in the third. They made it 3-2 only to give it back a minute later. It's now 6-2 after two and getting ugly. 

[Blue Heaven]

7-2 13:00 left

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

Lmao, Toronto never dissapoints

[Blue Heaven]

Leafs making a comeback, 7-3, 11:54 left

[fletch]

Panic, angst, and overreaction going to start early in Toronto media and fan base early this playoff year.

[Sharpshooter]

Only one game, but couldn't have gotten off to a worse start. Tampa Bay still has that pedigree.

[Pete]

11 hours ago, Sharpshooter said:

Only one game, but couldn't have gotten off to a worse start. Tampa Bay still has that pedigree.

Tampa is just living rent free in Toronto's head.

[Morphinity 2.0]

Leafs destroyed Tampa 5-0 in game 1 last year and we all know how that went. Hard to make too many conclusions off 1 game.

 

Plus, Hedman and Cernak left the game hurt, so we'll see how that goes.

[H-Dreamer]

While it was just one game, it sure looked like peak Playoff-Leafs, with all the dumb BS you just gotta love.

Unless you're a Leafs Fan of course.

[Blue Heaven]

I think they mentioned last night that Samsonov is 1-6 in the playoffs.....Ummmmmm yeah Leafs will lose in the 1st round again. 

Management hasnt helped them getting the goaltending they need to advance.  They had a chance to get Georgiev and passed.  

[Cash or Czech]

Bunting suspended three games

[BrooksBurner]

35 minutes ago, Cash or Czech said:

Bunting suspended three games

DOPS continues to be a joke. It maybe should have been called a major in game and that’s about it. Even a 1 game suspension is harsh. 3 games is bonkers and makes you think collusion.

[Phil]

The joke is that it's a total roll of the dice every time. No one knows what is or isn't supplemental discipline and no one knows how long any suspension should or shouldn't be.

[Pete]

3 playoff games... That's 6 reg season. 

[Valriera]

They use the same die to determine suspension length that they use to determine goaltender interference and pucks kicked into the net

[Blue Heaven]

No Hedman tonight 

[Cash or Czech]

Leafs swinging

[fletch]

3 hours ago, Blue Heaven said:

No Hedman tonight 

Turns out vasilevskiy plays better when the quality defensive pairs are available.

Edited April 21, 2023 by fletch

[Morphinity 2.0]

[jsm7302]

This is a series....heading into OT.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

Point got absolutely wrecked into the boards after a dangerous hit. All hell broke loose after it. Stamkos fighting Matthews, Kucherov fighting O'reilly, Sergachev with Schenn.