Pete

22 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

It’s not my view. I don’t make the stats.

You don't make the stats, but you create a narrative based on which you think are meaningful for the narrative, while simultaneously ignoring a ton of other metrics. Hence not seeing the forest for the trees.

Quote

The last two years you observed and recognized the same stats. This year you ignore them and pretend they don’t mean anything. I know why you do, and it’s funny.

You keep repeating this, and I keep repeating why it's different, and you keep ignoring it and pretending it doesn't mean anything. I know why you do, and it's funny.

What you also ignore is that by the time the playoffs started in each of the last 2 years, I've said the same thing I've said this year: Once your in it's a race to 16 wins and it doesn't matter how you get there.

You think it's too simple, yet that's what it is. It doesn't need to be complex.

26 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

the Rangers profile as a pretender.

In your view, maybe, because you're not seeing the forest for the trees.

They went first place wire to wire. They won a President's Trophy. They are a special teams juggernaut. They are deep. They are well coached. They have the best goalie left in the playoffs.

But sure, they don't pass some obscure analytical filter you're setting up.

1 hour ago, LindG1000 said:

 

 

The flaw with xGF as a ratio is that it fails to account for shot quality. So, when you have teams that are great at forecheck pressure and great at just...shooting pucks, they're going to hold the xGF% every single time. And truthfully - having the puck, pressuring puck carriers, shooting the puck - these are generally things that help you control a game and win them.

 

Think about how xGF "accrues" throughout a game - look at the way Vally pushes that data, for example. The "Corsi Canes" love, and I mean love, to shoot the puck. We've heard the term "chuckers" a few times here, and that might be accurate. An "everything to the net" approach is great for accruing low-danger xGF - those only really become high-danger chances when there's a rebound, so the Canes get in the zone, shoot low, and crash the net. And they maybe do this 30 times a game, so let's say that's .05 xGF a chance with three spiking into mid-high danger - those moments ALONE accrue ~1.7 xGF. It's a really smart formula, and it works often, but even if you consider the Islanders series - they needed goalie mistakes to get out of the series in 5, because that's how the system works.

 

So, yeah, of course, they're going to hold that "constant" 55%-45% xGF advantage - but when you can keep them off the counter and keep them to the outside, you're not going to have to worry about that advantage because it's volume shooting at low-quality and you've got Igor back there.

That's the flaw with the way the data is collected. There's also a flaw with the way it's being utilized as a data point.

Using completely made-up numbers, here's an example of smart use: "In their last 5 games, the Rangers went 2-3, but in their losses, they had an xGF% of 52, 55, and 53 percent so it looks like they're playing well, they just got goalied in a few games".

Here's an example of bad use: "This season the Rangers xGF% at 5v5 was 49.9% so they have no chance of beating the Canes who were at 52.8% all season".

That's not how this shit works.

9 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Of course it makes sense, you just don't like seeing your north star stat crumbled. 

12 minutes ago, Abe Froman said:

Oilers are 9 for 18 on power plays this series. That's insane.

Feels like the Rangers penalty kill. 

3 hours ago, RodrigueGabriel said:

I'm still trying to get my mind around the expected goals stuff. How's this for a paradox? NYR played 3 games against CAR this season. In the 1st and 3rd, they were well underwater for 5v5 xGF% (40.22 and 41.70) and in the 2nd they cleared 50% (50.39) according to NST. 

 

Except they won the 1st and 3rd games 2-1 and 1-0 respectively and lost the 2nd 6-1 (which was during the Rangers' January slump). So, when they had the best xGF%, they got completely blown out, while at a significant xGF% deficit they won 2 gutty defensive slogs (as I remember them) where the two teams were roughly even in high danger chances at 5v5 (8-8 and 10-11).

 

In the 1st game (11/2), NYR and CAR each had a PPG and Cuylle scored the only other goal at 5v5. Total SOG were 27-26 CAR. In the 3rd (3/12), Fox scored the only goal of the game at 5v5 and the Rangers were outshot 28-24. So it's not like Igor had to stand on his head and make 45 saves in either game.

 

The Rangers were 5-2 vs COL, CAR and DAL, three of the top five NHL teams in xGF%. That's roughly the same winning% vs that group as the rest of the league. Their 2 best games for 5v5 xGF% - by a fairly wide margin - were the two they lost, by 6-3 and 6-1 margins.

 

Go figure.

 

There is something about what makes the Rangers good at winning hockey games that is not captured by these numbers - whether or not xGF% has correlated to success. We'll see if it plays out differently in the Playoffs. 

 

Here's the easy answer, that stat is a nice retrospective to kind of get a sense of who carried play, but it is in no way an indicator of who will win a future game. 

Anyone who's using that stat as a predictor of how a series will go is doing it wrong. In that sense, it's pointless. 

8 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

So Rempe doesn't start and the Rangers lose game one and Laviolette has to deal with that pressure now also.

 

The easy answer is start Rempe and then if he creates conditions where you want Chytil instead you dress Chytil instead.

 

This team looks different when Rempe is playing.

Rempe should play the home games, unless he's ridiculously out over his skis in game one.

3 minutes ago, phillyb said:

These guys are in the middle of a fucking playoff run. Why is this coming out now? Seems weird. Also, word - say no to NJ, Rod. 

Because fuck the Canes.

33 minutes ago, siddious said:

Not really a vote of confidence 

He still had a year on his deal, according to Elliot, so this gives him another year. At the end of this contract he will have been the Lightning's coach for close to 14 years. 

I think this makes sense. One of the reasons why he was so successful when he came in is because he coached a lot of the Tampa players in the AHL. That's not the case anymore, and his message may start to lose its impact as the veterans go out and the young players come in.

There's not really a reason to sign him longer than that. They can always extend him again. 

37 minutes ago, CanesFanRandy said:

we meet again. Canes in 7!

 

To address an earlier post, Pesce is expected to be back for this series BTW.

 

NOT looking forward to your annual takeover of our arena however. We have actual season ticket holders that will be pulling for the Rangers! LOL

Report is they expect Pesce to play games in the series, but they're not sure at what point. And how good will he be when he comes back from an ankle injury? Good enough to get away from Rempe? We'll see!

Just now, Art20c said:

This one would be tough. Carolina is better team now than they were when we played them during the regular season. I watched their 1st round and to me it looked like they handled isls very easy. This one definitely will not be walk in the park. 

So are the Rangers. 

6 minutes ago, Morphinity 2.0 said:

I think Rangers fans are underestimating the Canes. They're a great team, well-coached, and relentless. Going to be a battle and the Rangers need to be sharp defensively because the Hurricanes have more of a high-end, in Guentzel and a healthy Svechnikov, than they have in past playoffs. 

I think you're underestimating the Rangers. They're a great team, well-coached, and can play any kind of game the opponent throws at them. Going to be a battle and the Canes need to be sharp defensively because they're missing 2 NHL D-men, one of their best defensive forwards, and their goalie can get injured or lose confidence at any point based on how his career has went so far.

25 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

Here’s the thing that no one seems to be mentioning though, and it’s odd:

In his career Freddie Andersen HAS NEVER played this well. Ever.

Eventually you have to think they’ll be some sort of deviation back to the norm for him. 

He was also playing against...The Islanders.

13 minutes ago, Vodka Drunkenski said:

Idk seems to me like majority have the Rangers winning it quite easily.  With some a little concerned how the Rangers played down to their opponent in the Caps series.

Not the vibe I've gotten all season long, despite what's in this thread.

3 minutes ago, Vodka Drunkenski said:

Almost everyone here picked the Rangers?

That doesn't really apply to what I said. Of course Ranger fans are going to pick the Rangers. But read the comments. Too many shook folks in the chat.

20 minutes ago, siddious said:

I hate this going narrative… The way some of you talk about Carolina you’d think they were a dynasty or something.

 

theres a reason, even with the rangers many flaws, they the rangers stayed above them

in the standings ALL SEASON LONG. 
 

they’re better then Washington.

theyre not better than the rangers.

 

we own this team*
 

*= provided they show up and play their game. We can never be certain of this.

Agreed. Too many people here think Carolina is good on purpose and the Rangers are good by accident.

These teams are quite close with the Rangers having an obvious edge in goaltending. 

Do the Rangers need to play their best hockey to win? Yes. Does Carolina also need to play their best hockey to win? Yes. Did either team play their best hockey through 100% of the previous series? No.

But only one team swept their opponent...

It's almost like anything can happen in the playoffs. 

10 minutes ago, Karan said:

 

Just more proof playoffs are a wildcard. 

People here are complaining about the Rangers even though they just swept the Capitals yet Carolina just is talked about here as head and shoulders above the Rangers... yet they can't even close out the Islanders properly?

It's like people just want to look for any little nitpick to show the team is bad because that's what fits their narrative. 

8 minutes ago, Karan said:

Isles need to find a way to win this. Canes aren't bruised and banged up enough. Need this to go to 7!

This game was over 7 minutes in, forget about going seven games. 

#QueefsForever

He's gonna need a MetroCard to exit the chat.

21 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

And now that he does that consistently you’re still expecting even more.

 

If Kreider was what you believe he should be he would be the best player in the league and making twice what he does.

The problem is you selectively remember things that I say and then try to throw certain other things back in my face out of context in some childish game. Weird obsession. Find another hobby. 

I never complained about his goal scoring prowess. Not once. What I've said is that it's incredible he scores the amount of goals he does while shooting the puck so little. 

It's other areas of his game that are lacking, mainly physicality and the forecheck, and his contribution on the cycle is non-existent, which means his line mates need to work harder.

There's more to hockey than goal scoring. He's a player with many tools at his disposal, yet he only uses one of them. 

16 minutes ago, Duguay10 said:

Why stop at 200...could have scored 400. He is arguably a top 5 Rangers player of all time......yet people are upset he didn't have Gretzky's career.

I'm not upset he didn't have Gretzky's career, I'm upset he didn't have the career he could have had. 

59 minutes ago, Phil said:

CROSSED OUT THE TOTAL AND PAID A DIFFERENT AMOUNT! LMFAO

I told you guys this. This guy's an extortionist. He extorted the entire NHL. To think that what went down wasn't his plan all along would be crazy. I don't think he knew how much money he would make, but he knew he was going to be able to sell the team for more than what he bought it for, which was his plan all along. To never invest anything in the team, it was a total cash grab. 

In addition to that, it's highly unlikely that OV breaks the record next season anyway. After that, Oshie is a UFA. It's highly unlikely that the Caps would bring him back at 39.