Playoffs Rangers-Hurricanes — Round Two General Series Thread

[Pete]

17 minutes ago, Karan said:

I don't think I've seen a series as pre-determined as this one by the stats nerds and their advanced analytics. Well, it's a good thing the games aren't decided by simulations/models and by the players on the ice and pure grit, heart and determination...

 

30 mins to go. Let's get this fucking show on the road and show them there's No Quit in NY. 

[Win262]

Let’s win number two. Rangers in six.

[Flynn]

These Canes fans are ridiculous. Whiners to the core.. Apparently the TDA penalty was the difference- and it should have been a full 5 on 3 early when Truba smoked Jarvis. 

 

Imagine having a 5 -2 PP advantage and still blaming the refs for the loss. This may be one of the worst fan bases in the NHL 

[Pete]

47 minutes ago, Flynn said:

These Canes fans are ridiculous. Whiners to the core.. Apparently the TDA penalty was the difference- and it should have been a full 5 on 3 early when Truba smoked Jarvis. 

 

Imagine having a 5 -2 PP advantage and still blaming the refs for the loss. This may be one of the worst fan bases in the NHL 

They've had hockey there for like 30 years, yet somehow Salt Lake City seems to be a more educated fan base. 

[Gravesy]

I think that game was a pretty spot on example of why analytics favour the Canes, and why it might not matter.

Sure, if you play that game 100 times, there’s a good chance the Canes win more games than the Rangers given the possession and o-zone numbers. 
But we’re not playing them 100 times, it’s best of 7. And as long as Igor outplays Andersen, the Rangers special teams are clearly superior and the Rangers big stars take their chances it’s pretty clear that the Canes statistical dominance 5v5 and strong possession numbers might not be enough to win. 
It got a bit hairy at the end. But my feeling for 58 minutes of hockey was that I could clearly see why they’re favoured by analytics models, and I could clearly see how the Rangers overcome it.

[Flynn]

Ray Ferraro (who is generally a douche) really made the salient point- yeah the Canes had the puck a ton in the offensive zone, but they were hugging the redline for extended periods of time- the stats looked good, but it was low danger stuff. 

 

I’d take having the lower O zone time but double the high danger chances 5x5 every day of the week, twice on Sunday. The analytics are great, Carolina had 10 minutes of PP time to the Rangers 31 seconds- the numbers are surely going to be out of whack. 

 

 

[LindG1000]

Apparently, the MoneyPuck model from the moment Vegas got shitcanned (and thus including our game 1 win) now heavily favors us.

 

 

[RangersIn7]

10 minutes ago, Flynn said:

Ray Ferraro (who is generally a douche) really made the salient point- yeah the Canes had the puck a ton in the offensive zone, but they were hugging the redline for extended periods of time- the stats looked good, but it was low danger stuff. 

 

I’d take having the lower O zone time but double the high danger chances 5x5 every day of the week, twice on Sunday. The analytics are great, Carolina had 10 minutes of PP time to the Rangers 31 seconds- the numbers are surely going to be out of whack. 

 

 

This is why the analytic model is flawed.

 

It’s based on shot share, irrespective of where those shots come from and how likely they are to result in goals.

Obviously, the more you shoot from wherever, the more likely you are to score more goals. And while that has value, as does possessing the puck in the o-zone, if it doesn’t manifest in good looks, quality shots, and high danger chances, it’s not so impactful. 

 

They scored a handful more goals in droves of more shots than the Rangers did in the regular season. 
 

And it does nothing to show how efficient a team is offensively.

 

If you pot your chances consistently and efficiently, the quantity means less. 

[RangersIn7]

56 minutes ago, Gravesy said:

I think that game was a pretty spot on example of why analytics favour the Canes, and why it might not matter.

Sure, if you play that game 100 times, there’s a good chance the Canes win more games than the Rangers given the possession and o-zone numbers. 
But we’re not playing them 100 times, it’s best of 7. And as long as Igor outplays Andersen, the Rangers special teams are clearly superior and the Rangers big stars take their chances it’s pretty clear that the Canes statistical dominance 5v5 and strong possession numbers might not be enough to win. 
It got a bit hairy at the end. But my feeling for 58 minutes of hockey was that I could clearly see why they’re favoured by analytics models, and I could clearly see how the Rangers overcome it.

Would you rather, in a fight, have 5 elite soldiers?

Or 50 mediocre soldiers?

[LindG1000]

I'll tell you what - if you're the Hurricanes right now, what did you learn in game 1? The Rangers can keep you outside. They aren't afraid of taking penalties because they're going to kill them. They're not going to break structure without you going full force all the time. And if you take a penalty? Good luck. Your PK got smoked.

[RangersIn7]

13 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

I'll tell you what - if you're the Hurricanes right now, what did you learn in game 1? The Rangers can keep you outside. They aren't afraid of taking penalties because they're going to kill them. They're not going to break structure without you going full force all the time. And if you take a penalty? Good luck. Your PK got smoked.

Yeah.

 

Again… it’s a short series.

These games are won and lost and play out based on things that happen in very short stretches of time. And oddities and “outliers” are way more impactful now.

In fact, they’re actually more impactful than that which trends well and plays out over 82. 
 

It just doesn’t matter.

 

I can specifically remember a game in the Conference Semifinals vs Pittsburgh in 2007-08.

Game 3 at the Garden.

 

Rangers came in down 2-0 in that series.

They were far and away the better team that night.

Out shot Pittsburgh something like 40-17

Had the puck all night.

Had tons of great looks.

 

They lost 5-3.

 

It doesn’t matter.

[LindG1000]

1 minute ago, RangersIn7 said:

Yeah.

 

Again… it’s a short series.

These games are won and lost and play out based on things that happen in very short stretches of time. And oddities and “outliers” are way more impactful now.

In fact, they’re actually more impactful than that which trends well and plays out over 82. 
 

It just doesn’t matter.

 

I can specifically remember a game in the Conference Semifinals vs Pittsburgh in 2007-08.

Game 3 at the Garden.

 

Rangers came in down 2-0 in that series.

They were far and away the better team that night.

Out shot Pittsburgh something like 40-17

Had the puck all night.

Had tons of great looks.

 

They lost 5-3.

 

It doesn’t matter.

 

I'd argue differently. Consistency really matters, but it's consistency relative to your opponent. If we can keep playing the defense we played yesterday? I love our odds. Hell, I love our odds at getting some rest after the series if that's the case. 

 

Carolina isn't poorly run though. Brind'Amour is a more experienced coach than Carberry, and a smarter coach than Gerard Gallant. Carolina will adjust to the Rangers, and it's on Laviolette and the star players to make them feel like nothing they do will work.

[BlairBettsBlocksEverything]

Just rewatching highlights and just gotta say that McDonagh is the worst announcer ever. I wasn't really listening because i had my kids with me watching the game and holy shit is he brutal

 

he tries to be the color commentator and play by play at the same time and he's always interrupting the action talking about other bullshit

[BrooksBurner]

2 hours ago, Flynn said:

These Canes fans are ridiculous. Whiners to the core.. Apparently the TDA penalty was the difference- and it should have been a full 5 on 3 early when Truba smoked Jarvis. 

 

Imagine having a 5 -2 PP advantage and still blaming the refs for the loss. This may be one of the worst fan bases in the NHL 

It’s amazing the focus was not on the Rempe “penalty”. Only focusing on the calls against the Canes because the Rangers were good enough to capitalize on it yesterday. Subban immediately crying in the intermission about the DeAngelo call. I don’t see how any objective hockey fan can focus on that call as a soft call before Rempe’s.

 

By the way, I also would have been totally ok if they didn’t call DeAngelo on that play if they let that shit run both ways. That would not benefit Carolina. They should be careful what they wish for.

[BrooksBurner]

 

[Phil]

[RangersIn7]

35 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

I'd argue differently. Consistency really matters, but it's consistency relative to your opponent. If we can keep playing the defense we played yesterday? I love our odds. Hell, I love our odds at getting some rest after the series if that's the case. 

 

Carolina isn't poorly run though. Brind'Amour is a more experienced coach than Carberry, and a smarter coach than Gerard Gallant. Carolina will adjust to the Rangers, and it's on Laviolette and the star players to make them feel like nothing they do will work.

I agree that teams that have had success playing THEIR game and doing so consistently absolutely matters. Not at all saying otherwise.

 

What I’m saying is simply that the models based on analytics don’t play out in the way of wins necessarily in a short series, because outliers and oddities can beat you.

Now obviously that can happen in the regular season, but it doesn’t matter than.

 

If Carolina goes up to Ottawa, on a Tuesday night in January and does all the things they do well to the Nth degree, dominates in puck possession and shot share, has tons of chances, yet they lose 3-1, you shrug it off and chalk it up to bad luck and it has minimal impact on their season and you move on and you play another game in a day or two. 

 

In the postseason, if that happens, it’s an entirely different set of circumstances. 
 

You tell your guys to just keep doing what they’re doing and things will even out.

 

The problem is that things don’t have the time to even out in a short series as much as they do in 6 months and 82 games.

[Br4d]

1 hour ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

 

Shaun Lawrence of St. Petersburg?

[Slobberknocker]

This was a good tone setter. You take game 1 and put them on there heels.

 

takeaways:

 

1  PP was lethal.  can really get in there heads if it continues like this against the best PK in the league.

 

2  denied the team that takes the most shots... well shots.

 

3  Physicality is no issue here.  we have the horses to dish it out and deal with it.

 

4  The big guns performed.  A big question for me going into the playoffs was who is stepping up in the room.  So far the question is being answered by Bread Zibs and my early Conn smyth candidate  Vinny.

 

5  was funny that Bread and Rempe had equal ice time in the 1st period.

 

6  Igor was great but while we kept them on the blue line and boards all nite i still think the defense in front of Igor can be better.  seems like we rely too much on the security blanket.

 

7 good to see the forwards blocking the lanes.

 

funny thing is 5 games in and i dont think we've approached playing our best complete game yet.

 

Garden is a zoo. such an advantage.

 

ESPN announcing regardless of the sport remains awful though Mess and Pk are entertaining in the intermission.

 

This ones over in 5.

[Art20c]

Carolina will adjust their special teams no doubt about that. I don’t think that our pp which was kinda inconsistent all season long will keep on producing at 100 percent. We have to cut on taking penalties. One sided referring or not. That is playing with fire.  Have to find a way.

[Ranger Lothbrok]

I think we haven't seen Carolina's best, but they also haven't seen our best. Igor was good, but not great. We didn't exactly win in spite of him, but we didn't win BECAUSE of him. If he steals one game this series, and he almost certainly will, we're already halfway to the 4 wins we need. Also, if it wasn't for the late Carolina penalty, they would've had literally 3 times the powerplays we did, and we still won. Both teams have more to give. 

 

When the Canes get going, they're scary and frustrating. Possession and forecheck monsters that have near-miraculous keep-ins on our clear attempts. That sustained pressure game in and game out WILL break our D at some point. 

 

I will say, however, that the center depth is refreshing and is something to behold. Not sure where this Goodrow has been for the past few years, but my God has he been great. The Alex Wennberg add was pretty inspired. The Kakko-Wennberg-Cuylle line has yet to give up an even strength goal (the one they surrendered last night was 6 on 5). Wennberg didn't make the headlines the way Guentzel did, but this team is much better with him at 3C instead of Brodzinski. 

 

I thought Trocheck was gonna be a "meh" pseudo-upgrade over Strome. Adding more grit and faceoff wins but sacrificing Panarin's chemistry with Strome's offense. Boy was I wrong. And if Mika keeps playing like this the entire postseason, well, good luck. That's not even our best line.

 

Our best, most dynamic, game-breaking forward isn't even top 5 in our playoff scoring so far. That's both concerning and beautiful. It tells me we can win when Panarin gets shut down, and that there's depth scoring up and down the lineup. He hasn't been bad, per se, but if he gets going like he did regular season, watch out. Hopefully another GWG does something for his confidence, but the effort is still clearly there. 

 

Love how much confidence Laf is playing with, and I love the physicality from him too. First one in on any post-whistle shenanigans. 

 

Really though, again, this comes down to the center depth. I'm not used to having that luxury. How many years have we been screaming about faceoffs? How many rosters have we seen where it's one guy up top and a who's who of randos the rest of the lineup? This team is scary deep right now, and one of our most skilled forwards who's arguably the 2C isn't even playing. 

[4EverRangerFrank]

On to Game 2 - CAR going to bring their best and throw everything at the net. We can weather their wet fart storm. Our boys were good in Game 1 but not really clicking like we know they can. A long layoff can do that to your legs. Tuesday going to be a bum rush in a darkened Central Park for these tourists. Blow the 'Canes back where they belong - to the marshes of Carolina. 

 

Win this next one and I give Shesty a rest Game 3. Our backup is a heartbreaker and ruins Cup dreams...don't we know.

 

LFGR!

[Morphinity 2.0]

9 minutes ago, 4EverRangerFrank said:

On to Game 2 - CAR going to bring their best and throw everything at the net. We can weather their wet fart storm. Our boys were good in Game 1 but not really clicking like we know they can. A long layoff can do that to your legs. Tuesday going to be a bum rush in a darkened Central Park for these tourists. Blow the 'Canes back where they belong - to the marshes of Carolina. 

 

Win this next one and I give Shesty a rest Game 3. Our backup is a heartbreaker and ruins Cup dreams...don't we know.

 

LFGR!

Dawg, they just had a week off lol

 

He'll be fine

[4EverRangerFrank]

13 minutes ago, Morphinity 2.0 said:

Dawg, they just had a week off lol

 

He'll be fine

I hear you, and it's likely he'd rather play. You don't often get a clear chance to rest the goalie, and Quick can use the work.

[Blue Heaven]

I don't understand how the NHL still can't schedule the time for Game 4.  The only other playoff game scheduled for 5/11 is Stars vs. Avalanche.