GDT [RS #19] Rangers @ San Jose Sharks — 'Smile, you son of a bitch!'

[LindG1000]

7 hours ago, Keirik said:

There’s a lot of truth to that. I’ve historically been a pro ADA guy, but his revenge series was exactly against us last year in the playoffs and he not only shit the bed, he stained it in a way that Carolina walked away. That cannot be ignored. 

Having said that, I still maintain that the Rangers should have bridged Fox handsomely instead of giving him 9m. I get that it might  have costed 10m or so later but I 100% was willing to take that risk and have him for 2-3 years at 7m or so just to relieve a bit of cap pressure. 
 

 

Eh. You don't get the "luxury" of bridging 21 year old Norris winners, and Fox won't cost 10m at the end of a hypothetical bridge; he'd cost quite a bit more. 

 

This is a guy on track for multiple Norris trophies by the end of the hypothetical bridge deal you're talking about here in an environment where the cap is going to go up close to 20% by the time that hypothetical deal ends. 

[Bugg]

Trying to understand with the lack of offensive production generally and the top 2 lines especially and defensive mess that is Trouba/Miller, how exactly anyone fixates on Adam Fox being a big problem. He isn't  remotely a problem at all. He's isn't supposed to be Jeff Beukeboom; that's Ryan Lindgren's job. 

[BrooksBurner]

7 hours ago, Keirik said:

There’s a lot of truth to that. I’ve historically been a pro ADA guy, but his revenge series was exactly against us last year in the playoffs and he not only shit the bed, he stained it in a way that Carolina walked away. That cannot be ignored. 

Having said that, I still maintain that the Rangers should have bridged Fox handsomely instead of giving him 9m. I get that it might  have costed 10m or so later but I 100% was willing to take that risk and have him for 2-3 years at 7m or so just to relieve a bit of cap pressure. 
 

I might have gone along with the Fox bridge idea if Lafreniere and/or Miller were going to break the bank, but at this juncture I don’t see it that way and don’t see much of a cap pressure issue this summer. Therefore I’m happy with Fox locked in long term at a lower hit than after a bridge.

[BrooksBurner]

50 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Trying to understand with the lack of offensive production generally and the top 2 lines especially and defensive mess that is Trouba/Miller, how exactly anyone fixates on Adam Fox being a big problem. He isn't  remotely a problem at all. He's isn't supposed to be Jeff Beukeboom; that's Ryan Lindgren's job. 

People cope with sadness in different ways, sometimes nonsensical lol

[Keirik]

3 hours ago, LindG1000 said:

 

Eh. You don't get the "luxury" of bridging 21 year old Norris winners, and Fox won't cost 10m at the end of a hypothetical bridge; he'd cost quite a bit more. 

 

This is a guy on track for multiple Norris trophies by the end of the hypothetical bridge deal you're talking about here in an environment where the cap is going to go up close to 20% by the time that hypothetical deal ends. 

And that’s all fine, but we just saw an offseason where we lost pieces that we couldn’t replace or upgrade on because we are up against the cap. I get that this has less to do with Fox and more to do with the obvious other guys, but there has to be some thought to manage a current cap because once you bring in Panarin, reup Kreider and later Ziby, you are saying we have a window now. We don’t know what window we have in 3 or 4 years but either way Panarin, Kreider, Trouba, and even Goodrow are at the end of their deals so there is plenty of money even if you’ve re-upped Shesty for a good bump more. 

[LindG1000]

5 minutes ago, Keirik said:

And that’s all fine, but we just saw an offseason where we lost pieces that we couldn’t replace or upgrade on because we are up against the cap. I get that this has less to do with Fox and more to do with the obvious other guys, but there has to be some thought to manage a current cap because once you bring in Panarin, reup Kreider and later Ziby, you are saying we have a window now. We don’t know what window we have in 3 or 4 years but either way Panarin, Kreider, Trouba, and even Goodrow are at the end of their deals so there is plenty of money even if you’ve re-upped Shesty for a good bump more. 

 

I'm going to hot take this for a second: aside from rolling with 23 this season instead of 22, I don't think there's much of a cap mistake on this team for this season. Extending Reaves will become one - maybe it already is, but it's also among the more fixable mistakes in flat cap land. The structure is right, few players are monstrously overpaid for their input, and the kids are still cheap.

 

Bluntly - if our actual goals matched our xG, this isn't a conversation at all and we're comfortably nestled between the Devils and the Hurricanes in the division. Whether it's bad luck, ineffective coaching, or chemistry - that's a good debate.

[siddious]

On 11/19/2022 at 10:11 PM, Sharpshooter said:

All I want is for Kaapo Kakko to score on Kaapo Kahkonen one day.

You’re gonna kill Sam Rosen bro 

[Keirik]

12 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

I'm going to hot take this for a second: aside from rolling with 23 this season instead of 22, I don't think there's much of a cap mistake on this team for this season. Extending Reaves will become one - maybe it already is, but it's also among the more fixable mistakes in flat cap land. The structure is right, few players are monstrously overpaid for their input, and the kids are still cheap.

 

Bluntly - if our actual goals matched our xG, this isn't a conversation at all and we're comfortably nestled between the Devils and the Hurricanes in the division. Whether it's bad luck, ineffective coaching, or chemistry - that's a good debate.

I’m not sure it’s too much of a hot take. Most of the guys earn their money sans Trouba.  There is also the idea that we definitely overachieved by succeeding with a terrible formula that doesn’t normally lead to sustained success last year. However, going into this past offseason, I’d sure have liked every penny possible. Maybe we keep a Vatrano if we were a bit more frugal while we had leverage still with Fox.
 

Maybe even more importantly, I’d like that extra 2m or so for next offseason when we have a better picture of where we are at. Obviously Fox isn’t eating up cap solely, but he was one of the variables that did have flexibility with.
 

 I’m just big on establishing a culture of waiting your turn just so you don’t get into potential situation of hoping guys don’t perform too much or we have to pay top dollar  since we did in the past. 

[Karan]

39 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

I'm going to hot take this for a second: aside from rolling with 23 this season instead of 22, I don't think there's much of a cap mistake on this team for this season. Extending Reaves will become one - maybe it already is, but it's also among the more fixable mistakes in flat cap land. The structure is right, few players are monstrously overpaid for their input, and the kids are still cheap.

 

Bluntly - if our actual goals matched our xG, this isn't a conversation at all and we're comfortably nestled between the Devils and the Hurricanes in the division. Whether it's bad luck, ineffective coaching, or chemistry - that's a good debate.

 

Definitely a good debate topic. To be honest I've been getting more and more perplexed about the growing disparity between the actual results versus advanced analytics as the season goes on.

 

As we approach the quarter point, I feel like it's worth questioning whether the disparity is really still down to anomaly statistics/bad luck or more so that our secondary scorers just don't have the necessary finishing abilities? I mean yea they're good enough to muster lots of low/medium danger scoring chances (Rangers are near the top of the league in that category), but it can't always be down to bad luck/goalies standing on their head. I don't want to use the dreaded 'bust' word but we might just have to accept that guys like Kakko, Laffy, Chytil, Goodrow etc. just aren't capable finishers at this level to keep the Rangers on par with Devils/Hurricanes, when our top guys aren't getting the job done.

[Pete]

47 minutes ago, Keirik said:

I’m not sure it’s too much of a hot take. Most of the guys earn their money sans Trouba.  There is also the idea that we definitely overachieved by succeeding with a terrible formula that doesn’t normally lead to sustained success last year. However, going into this past offseason, I’d sure have liked every penny possible. Maybe we keep a Vatrano if we were a bit more frugal while we had leverage still with Fox.
 

Maybe even more importantly, I’d like that extra 2m or so for next offseason when we have a better picture of where we are at. Obviously Fox isn’t eating up cap solely, but he was one of the variables that did have flexibility with.
 

 I’m just big on establishing a culture of waiting your turn just so you don’t get into potential situation of hoping guys don’t perform too much or we have to pay top dollar  since we did in the past. 

Only because you brought him up, Vatrano has 6 pts this season, 2A at EV. He's not a guy who'd be helping.

 

Frankly (see what I did there?), the issues we have now fall directly on our draft picks, who give us nothing. You need young, cost effective players who produce outsized to their contract and we don't have that from Chytil (the best of the bunch but not enough), Laf, Kakk, or Miller who's regressing at a rate it's hard to fathom.

[Pete]

30 minutes ago, Karan said:

 

Definitely a good debate topic. To be honest I've been getting more and more perplexed about the growing disparity between the actual results versus advanced analytics as the season goes on.

 

As we approach the quarter point, I feel like it's worth questioning whether the disparity is really still down to anomaly statistics/bad luck or more so that our secondary scorers just don't have the necessary finishing abilities? I mean yea they're good enough to muster lots of low/medium danger scoring chances (Rangers are near the top of the league in that category), but it can't always be down to bad luck/goalies standing on their head. I don't want to use the dreaded 'bust' word but we might just have to accept that guys like Kakko, Laffy, Chytil, Goodrow etc. just aren't capable finishers at this level to keep the Rangers on par with Devils/Hurricanes, when our top guys aren't getting the job done.

Bingo. They're good enough to get in, but not good enough to get off.

[The Dude]

4 hours ago, Pete said:

Only because you brought him up, Vatrano has 6 pts this season, 2A at EV. He's not a guy who'd be helping.

 

Frankly (see what I did there?), the issues we have now fall directly on our draft picks, who give us nothing. You need young, cost effective players who produce outsized to their contract and we don't have that from Chytil (the best of the bunch but not enough), Laf, Kakk, or Miller who's regressing at a rate it's hard to fathom.

It's time for a new Lafrenière reset topic -22/23 version.

 

Time to sell on all 3? It's tough, but I guess you have to. I would like to see more icetime dedicated to the kid line before that thought is taken seriously though. 

 

Kakko and Lafrenière are very disappointing.  Chytil was a later pick, so its meh. 1 and 2 OA. Different story.  

[Capt]

I find it hard to fathom how a team with no cap space who stinks has basically all their players producing to their cap hits.  Something is off

[Scott]

6 hours ago, Pete said:

Only because you brought him up, Vatrano has 6 pts this season, 2A at EV. He's not a guy who'd be helping.

 

Frankly (see what I did there?), the issues we have now fall directly on our draft picks, who give us nothing. You need young, cost effective players who produce outsized to their contract and we don't have that from Chytil (the best of the bunch but not enough), Laf, Kakk, or Miller who's regressing at a rate it's hard to fathom.

Exactly. At some point in every athletes career (especially those with high expectations that come with where they were drafted in this case) they are given the ball and expected to run with it. Make something out of nothing if necessary. They have been given top 6 minutes to start the last two seasons and have so little to show for it. It's a results business they have done so very little (Laf and Kakko especially). Chytil  looks better because he's often compared to the other two.  Honestly look at the pace they are putting up points.  Just garbage stuff.  I don't care how many minutes more they get they show no signs of being able to put pucks in the net.  There was a stat yesterday at even strength Laf and Kakko are up there with Zib and Krieder in 5v5 toi.  

[Keirik]

6 hours ago, Pete said:

Only because you brought him up, Vatrano has 6 pts this season, 2A at EV. He's not a guy who'd be helping.

 

Frankly (see what I did there?), the issues we have now fall directly on our draft picks, who give us nothing. You need young, cost effective players who produce outsized to their contract and we don't have that from Chytil (the best of the bunch but not enough), Laf, Kakk, or Miller who's regressing at a rate it's hard to fathom.

I get it, but I disagree. I’m less concerned with what Vatrano does with others as I am with how he worked here. He fit like a glove on the first line. Some combos just click.  I know, small sample size, but he didn’t exactly cash in and in the 40 games of playoffs + regular season here, he had 13 goals and 13 assists for 26 points. A lot of that was at EV. 40 games is enough of a sample size for me to think it was a good fit at a good price. 
 
   Ultimately I do agree that our highly touted draft picks are letting us down though, but can anyone really say they are that surprised? This has been trending this way for quite a while sans a good week and a half in the playoffs last year. 

[Keirik]

5 minutes ago, jsrangers said:

Exactly. At some point in every athletes career (especially those with high expectations that come with where they were drafted in this case) they are given the ball and expected to run with it. Make something out of nothing if necessary. They have been given top 6 minutes to start the last two seasons and have so little to show for it. It's a results business they have done so very little (Laf and Kakko especially). Chytil  looks better because he's often compared to the other two.  Honestly look at the pace they are putting up points.  Just garbage stuff.  I don't care how many minutes more they get they show no signs of being able to put pucks in the net.  There was a stat yesterday at even strength Laf and Kakko are up there with Zib and Krieder in 5v5 toi.  

I think we all agree with how disappointing our three “kids” are but I’m not sure how that goes against my point of a Vatrano making sense here. Kakko has never worked on the top 2 lines. Hell, there are rumors of bread specifically asking him off of it. Chytil has never worked. Alf doesn’t exactly work just based on position. It’s pretty much exactly why we traded for two pieces last year to round out the top 6. One piece was going to be affordable to keep and one was never going to be able to keep in Copp. Then we went into the offseason handing Kravtsov a top 6 despite not being remotely ready. It’s not like his first NYR stint produced anything that special. We have a tad over 3m currently tied up in two guys (Blais/Reaves) that barely add anything to this roster and we have a fuck ton of redundancy of 4th liners in Reaves, Blais, Carpenter, Vesey, Goodrow, Gauthier, and formerly Hunt that all add either identical things or nothing at all.  The only two that really have shown much of anything this year or last is Goodrow and Gauthier. 

In my mind, Drury is going to look to add a guy to fit in the top 6. Probably really need two just like last year. We had a good chance though to have retained Vatrano for a manageable cap if we had just stopped with the redundancies and shed a little. 

[Sod16]

3 hours ago, The Dude said:

Kakko and Lafrenière are very disappointing.  

 

They both will probably get better, but at some point in the future, when you look at 1st overalls over a 10 year period, LaF will probably rate the lowest or second lowest.  Perhaps the same with Kakko for second overalls.

[Scott]

18 minutes ago, Keirik said:

I think we all agree with how disappointing our three “kids” are but I’m not sure how that goes against my point of a Vatrano making sense here. Kakko has never worked on the top 2 lines. Hell, there are rumors of bread specifically asking him off of it. Chytil has never worked. Alf doesn’t exactly work just based on position. It’s pretty much exactly why we traded for two pieces last year to round out the top 6. One piece was going to be affordable to keep and one was never going to be able to keep in Copp. Then we went into the offseason handing Kravtsov a top 6 despite not being remotely ready. It’s not like his first NYR stint produced anything that special. We have a tad over 3m currently tied up in two guys (Blais/Reaves) that barely add anything to this roster and we have a fuck ton of redundancy of 4th liners in Reaves, Blais, Carpenter, Vesey, Goodrow, Gauthier, and formerly Hunt that all add either identical things or nothing at all.  The only two that really have shown much of anything this year or last is Goodrow and Gauthier. 

In my mind, Drury is going to look to add a guy to fit in the top 6. Probably really need two just like last year. We had a good chance though to have retained Vatrano for a manageable cap if we had just stopped with the redundancies and shed a little. 

Nothing I said had anything to do with Vatrano/Copp. My sole point was the kids have proven to be fodder. Yay Kakko looks better, looks like a different player, his paper stats may even show it. The most basic of stats goals, points do not. They stink, royally. I'm with you thinking Kravtsov was a NHL top 6 forward coming in was pure fantasy and hope based on nothing, based on well we have no options now he's stuck here or we cut bait. 

 

I think Goodrow is a good guy to have around but nowhere near the top six. Gauthier has been the best of the rotten apples. But as somebody pointed out earlier he's playing against the worst the other teams have to offer most of the time. However, good for him, would I bet on him being a part of helping this team turn the corner in a bigger role, I would not. 

 

Woulda,shoulda, coulda with Vatrano etc. They (Drury) guessed wrong, now he'll be forced to try and bring in bigger pieces this time. I don't think they can wait until the TDL. I think they could fall behind to where they're looking up and over too many teams by then.  Ultimately though I think it's the kids especially (1OA and 2OA)that have massively come up small or worse.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

8 hours ago, jsrangers said:

There was a stat yesterday at even strength Laf and Kakko are up there with Zib and Krieder in 5v5 toi.  

And they are up there in 5v5 points as well:

Zib - 2g, 6a

Kreids - 3g, 4a

Laf - 2g, 5a

Kakko - 3g, 4a

 

The only difference in production between "the kids" and Mika/Kreids/Panarin is because of the PP. If anything it's the top 6 that needs to step up the play at 5v5. Our 3 star forwards have 9 EV goals after 19 games.

[Pete]

1 hour ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

And they are up there in 5v5 points as well:

Zib - 2g, 6a

Kreids - 3g, 4a

Laf - 2g, 5a

Kakko - 3g, 4a

 

The only difference in production between "the kids" and Mika/Kreids/Panarin is because of the PP. If anything it's the top 6 that needs to step up the play at 5v5. Our 3 star forwards have 9 EV goals after 19 games.

You're right. When you see the stats like this, it doesn't mean the kids aren't the problem, it means the stars are also a problem.. maybe even a bigger one. 

[RangersIn7]

They all need to be better 5v5. Period. 
 

[RangersIn7]

37 minutes ago, Pete said:

You're right. When you see the stats like this, it doesn't mean the kids aren't the problem, it means the stars are also a problem.. maybe even a bigger one. 

It’s across the board lack of 5v5 scoring, and it’s hard to grasp given the talent they can deploy in their top-6. Really the top-9. 

 

Again, I’m not up in arms, as it’s 20 games into season and not to be a broken record, but underlying numbers are way better. But if this continues, serious adjustments are needed. And one of those things might be a coaching change. 

Edited November 22, 2022 by RangersIn7

[Pete]

11 hours ago, Keirik said:

I think we all agree with how disappointing our three “kids” are but I’m not sure how that goes against my point of a Vatrano making sense here. Kakko has never worked on the top 2 lines. Hell, there are rumors of bread specifically asking him off of it. Chytil has never worked. Alf doesn’t exactly work just based on position. It’s pretty much exactly why we traded for two pieces last year to round out the top 6. One piece was going to be affordable to keep and one was never going to be able to keep in Copp. Then we went into the offseason handing Kravtsov a top 6 despite not being remotely ready. It’s not like his first NYR stint produced anything that special. We have a tad over 3m currently tied up in two guys (Blais/Reaves) that barely add anything to this roster and we have a fuck ton of redundancy of 4th liners in Reaves, Blais, Carpenter, Vesey, Goodrow, Gauthier, and formerly Hunt that all add either identical things or nothing at all.  The only two that really have shown much of anything this year or last is Goodrow and Gauthier. 

In my mind, Drury is going to look to add a guy to fit in the top 6. Probably really need two just like last year. We had a good chance though to have retained Vatrano for a manageable cap if we had just stopped with the redundancies and shed a little. 

I guess the point I'm trying to make is you can't constantly be paying UFAs, even if it's not a massive contract, for the type of production that Vatrano gives you. You actually need his 40ish points plus a little bit more from guys on elcs or you're never going to be able to fit a competitive team under the cap. 

[RangersIn7]

12 hours ago, Keirik said:

I think we all agree with how disappointing our three “kids” are but I’m not sure how that goes against my point of a Vatrano making sense here. Kakko has never worked on the top 2 lines. Hell, there are rumors of bread specifically asking him off of it. Chytil has never worked. Alf doesn’t exactly work just based on position. It’s pretty much exactly why we traded for two pieces last year to round out the top 6. One piece was going to be affordable to keep and one was never going to be able to keep in Copp. Then we went into the offseason handing Kravtsov a top 6 despite not being remotely ready. It’s not like his first NYR stint produced anything that special. We have a tad over 3m currently tied up in two guys (Blais/Reaves) that barely add anything to this roster and we have a fuck ton of redundancy of 4th liners in Reaves, Blais, Carpenter, Vesey, Goodrow, Gauthier, and formerly Hunt that all add either identical things or nothing at all.  The only two that really have shown much of anything this year or last is Goodrow and Gauthier. 

In my mind, Drury is going to look to add a guy to fit in the top 6. Probably really need two just like last year. We had a good chance though to have retained Vatrano for a manageable cap if we had just stopped with the redundancies and shed a little. 

See I don’t think the 3 kids have been outright “disappointing.”

I just think expectations have been misplaced and other factors have screwed things up some. 
 

I’ll agree that there’s been under production. But I think it’s contextual in many cases. 
 

I see legitimate growth and progression from all of them. They need more ice time and Gallant has failed in finding the right places and combinations.

 

I think if they move any of the 3 it’s a mistake and they’ll regret it. 

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, RangersIn7 said:

See I don’t think the 3 kids have been outright “disappointing.”

I just think expectations have been misplaced and other factors have screwed things up some. 
 

I’ll agree that there’s been under production. But I think it’s contextual in many cases. 
 

I see legitimate growth and progression from all of them. They need more ice time and Gallant has failed in finding the right places and combinations.

 

I think if they move any of the 3 it’s a mistake and they’ll regret it. 

Not outright disappointing as they aren’t net zero players, but I don’t think expectations have been misplaced. They were appropriately high for #1/#2 overall picks. Lowering them is a coping mechanism.

 

5 stages of grief

 

1) denial

2) anger

3) bargaining

4) depression

5) acceptance

For Lafreniere, I’m still on step 1. I don’t believe this is what he’ll be. I went through the same stage with Kakko, but this time I know it’s different

 

For Kakko, I’m working through step 3 but almost out of it. I’ve negotiated with my expectations. 80 pt power forward down to a 15 goal 30-35 pt two way forward. 2nd round pick trade value. I’m almost through it. As a Rangers fan, handling depression is what we’re best at, so I’m not really worried about step 4. I’ll just hop right to stage 5 and accept he’s just a non-physical but defensively responsible 3rd line player who is worth a 2nd round pick.

 

Chytil wasn’t even a high pick and I’m stuck on stage 1. IDGAF. Fuck all ya’ll.