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Is the Bigger Risk Trading or Paying Buchnevich?


Phil

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The thing about Kreider is that you can't talk about pace. Because he either gets hurt, or just disappears.

 

Again, if you take out the 2 hat tricks, over the rest of the games played he's at a 25 goal pace. He has 2 goals in his last 10.

 

He's just so unreliable game to game. You can count on 25 goals from him and you can also count on him to have a stretch of 10G without a goal.

 

I would agree if goals scored and credited to Kreider was the only measure of success for him. I've made note during many games where I said that goal doesn't happen without Kreider battling in front of the net or setting beautiful screens, where he won't get boxcar credit for it.

 

I think what you've noted is why he gets paid 6.5M instead of 8-9M.

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Buch becomes player we wanted him to become ,only for us to have to move him, seems like a ranger way. I think they find a way to keep him however.

 

They have plenty of cap to hold onto Buch for the next 3 or 4 years minimum. The Rangers' "cap problem" is a bit of a misnomer these days. Everyone in the past has expected Kakko or Lafreniere to get big bucks off their ELC. That isn't looking like the case.

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Part of the problem with the rangers is inconsistency which is due mostly to their age.

 

Look at the teams that won or make deep runs. They all have mostly older lineups who have been through the shit. Kreider is on a great contract for what he brings: goals and leadership. He’s one of the best power forwards in the game and one of the best in front of the net - if not the best. Rangers made a statement last year by resigning him. A statement which said “the tearing down of this team is now over.”

 

Buch has to be resigned. Similar to Kreider he won’t cost much and can be that bargain barrel first liner or above average 2nd liner if Kakko or Kravstov eventually overtake him.

 

I feel like we as fans are so used to selling players at this point we’ve come to expect anyone of value to go when their contract is up. We expect anyone over 27 to be washed up. I mean look at Zucc this year. Guy is still fucking awesome at 33. We have to accept that “old” doesn’t mean bad. And if Buch and Mika and Kreider stay with the organization past 30, it’s a good thing - not bad.

I think signing Buch is a fine idea just no NMC and it would be no problem

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They have plenty of cap to hold onto Buch for the next 3 or 4 years minimum. The Rangers' "cap problem" is a bit of a misnomer these days. Everyone in the past has expected Kakko or Lafreniere to get big bucks off their ELC. That isn't looking like the case.

 

So true. We are talking about a cap where everyone thought we would have to pay big money on these generational talents after their elc. Well their contracts don't seem to be an issue. Even if Kakko breaks out next year he's not breaking the bank on his next contract. Laffy still could but he would need a major step up in his game soon.

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Everyone in the past has expected Kakko or Lafreniere to get big bucks off their ELC. That isn't looking like the case.

That seems like a fairly premature conclusion. Depends on your definition of “big” I suppose.

Even if they don’t blow up you’re still looking at re upping those 2 and Kravtsov with Bread and Kreider already locked in. Signing Buch long term on top of that seems like a lot of money on wingers.

I guess it’s possible to sign Buch and kick the can down the road, as long as there are no NMC/NTC’s involved.

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Sorry to bring this back on topic, but our good friend Shayna Goldman over at the Athletic posted up an entire article on what Buchnevich's value might be today.

 

As the Rangers continue their rebuild, they’re likely to field offers on all players other than their “cornerstones.” On the ice right now, Buchnevich is looking like he would be too valuable to lose unless he’s requested as a part of a game-changing trade (see: Jack Eichel).

 

The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn’s model projects Buchnevich to be worth 1.8 wins per season on average, which equates to a market value of $7 million per season. In the first couple of seasons, Buchnevich projects to remain in first-line territory, before shifting down a tier to top-six.

 

An AAV of $7 million, which would equate to about 9 percent of the cap, is on the higher end of the spectrum of the players shown above. Both may be too hefty for the Rangers to commit to, especially in this current financial environment.

 

It’s entirely possible, though, that the Rangers manage to sign Buchnevich below his market value. The team may look to those who were “comparables” when his last contract was signed to examine those players’ salary trajectories.

 

A number of these names, including Anthony Mantha, Oliver Bjorkstrand and Teuvo Ter?v?inen, appear once again as comparables.

 

If we can keep Buch on the Bjorkstrand deal - we have to do it. If he's looking for William Nylander money, we're gonna need to walk.

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That seems like a fairly premature conclusion. Depends on your definition of “big” I suppose.

Even if they don’t blow up you’re still looking at re upping those 2 and Kravtsov with Bread and Kreider already locked in. Signing Buch long term on top of that seems like a lot of money on wingers.

I guess it’s possible to sign Buch and kick the can down the road, as long as there are no NMC/NTC’s involved.

 

Big bucks like that 9-10M+ category that other high end picks have landed because they are studs (McDavid, Matthews, Eichel, Marner, etc.). I think it's safe to say neither Lafreniere nor Kakko are looking like they will be in that category, though there is still time for Lafreniere to buck that estimation in the next 2 seasons. Kakko is not getting that kind of money even if he puts up good production next year on his last year of ELC, barring some unpredictable and undeniable explosion (80+ points?). He will not have been established long enough to get big dollars.

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KZB is the most 2nd line ever. Pay them as such.

 

When you pay non-first liners as first liners, you're in the danger zone.

 

Love Buch, but let's be honest. He's not a long-term first line player.

 

You keep him for now, but at a reasonably low rate. You get him around 5.5 with a NTC for 5 years. With the ELCs, at that rate, its not going to hurt you if he's playing 1st line or 3rd line (where the KZB like will be at the end of their contracts)

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KZB is the most 2nd line ever. Pay them as such.

 

When you pay non-first liners as first liners, you're in the danger zone.

 

Love Buch, but let's be honest. He's not a long-term first line player.

 

You keep him for now, but at a reasonably low rate. You get him around 5.5 with a NTC for 5 years. With the ELCs, at that rate, its not going to hurt you if he's playing 1st line or 3rd line (where the KZB like will be at the end of their contracts)

 

Zibanejad 8 M, Buch 6M (limited NTC, 8-10 teams maybe).

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Keep in mind, I don’t believe this coming contract for Buch can include a ntc/nmc until he hits 7 years in the league or 27 years of age with ufa status so likely, this next contract is a 2-3 year deal since I doubt they have the room to overpay and buy into more than one ufa year. Think he hits both 7 years in the league and age requirement after the 22/23 season.

 

Unless I’m wrong about that but I think I’m reading this right.

https://www.capfriendly.com/faq#nmc

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Keep in mind, I don’t believe this coming contract for Buch can include a ntc/nmc until he hits 7 years in the league or 27 years of age with ufa status so likely, this next contract is a 2-3 year deal since I doubt they have the room to overpay and buy into more than one ufa year. Think he hits both 7 years in the league and age requirement after the 22/23 season.

 

Unless I’m wrong about that but I think I’m reading this right.

https://www.capfriendly.com/faq#nmc

 

Sort of - he can't have any no move protection in an RFA year. So since he's one year off UFA (age 27), he can have a contract with an NMC that kicks in at the start of the 2022-23 season, but he cannot be trade protected next season.

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Sort of - he can't have any no move protection in an RFA year. So since he's one year off UFA (age 27), he can have a contract with an NMC that kicks in at the start of the 2022-23 season, but he cannot be trade protected next season.

 

Right. So this coming offseason, if he signs a 3 year deal, any movement clause doesn’t kick in until the start of the 22/23 season. So one year more. My year was screwed up lol. I’d assume it kicks in after the season is over, same as when it happened with Trouba right?

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Right. So this coming offseason, if he signs a 3 year deal, any movement clause doesn’t kick in until the start of the 22/23 season. So one year more. My year was screwed up lol. I’d assume it kicks in after the season is over, same as when it happened with Trouba right?

 

Yep - exactly right.

 

It might be to our advantage to set it up as, say, 3 years, 17m, and have the trade protection increase year on year.

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Yep - exactly right.

 

It might be to our advantage to set it up as, say, 3 years, 17m, and have the trade protection increase year on year.

 

Definitely. It also helps that outside of Panarin who is in another league compared to the rest of our team, not many really are on too inflated of aav so the Rangers really could approach Buch and and ask who what forward does he feel he deserves more money than. Figure a 2-3 year deal is on the cards.

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Definitely. It also helps that outside of Panarin who is in another league compared to the rest of our team, not many really are on too inflated of aav so the Rangers really could approach Buch and and ask who what forward does he feel he deserves more money than. Figure a 2-3 year deal is on the cards.

 

He could say I want to be the Trouba of the forwards when it comes to pay. :)

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^@rmc51 post - :clap: very accurately stated IMO

 

That said, I'm still not a fan of moving him. He might never become Malkin, but he's showing signs of becoming very good.

 

Sure hope he never becomes Malkin then I will have to hate him

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