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From Bust to Bang: What Will Alexis Lafrenieres Next Contract Look Like?


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We have all had our questions, doubts, discussions and flat out nasty conversations regarding our lucky ping pong ball. Lafreniere has been a slow burn. You saw some glimpses, but not enough. Questions about consistency, flash and ability at this level were had. And finally, our patience was rewarded this year. 28 goals in the regular season with next to no PP time, followed by a playoff run where he continued his fine play and displayed more skill, talent and confidence than we have ever seen. In a series against an aggressive Florida team, Laffy was likely our best player outside of Igor. In 98 total games this season, he finished with 35 goals.

 

We all know we have a big decision coming up on Igor. Lafreniere is also a year away from needing a new contract.

 

What are your ideas on what it could potentially look like and how the Rangers should handle it? Do the Rangers double down, offer him a little above market value based off of what he did this year and hope this is the beginning of an upward trend? Do they play the waiting game, and potentially risk him having another big, or potentially even bigger, season?

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3 minutes ago, jsm7302 said:

8 takes him to 36. He does have an injury history. 8x6 at most for me.

Do you want to go back and check this post before I respond? 😉 

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That's the ticket right there....yup!  I go 8x8 and that's gonna work great!  I love this kid!  I am so happy he got his shit together, and I hope to see him break all the Rangers records in his career.  He's got plenty of time to do it!

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I'm sold for two reasons:

 

1. The kid has had more than one good playoff season. This season was a great playoff season. We need players who can play in the playoffs.

2. He put in the work to disprove all of the doubters, me included.

 

Yeah, he's weird, but he's converted this non-believer with what was clearly hard work and not much else on the offseason. So the length for me is 8 years. He's the future of the team.

 

I'm not sure on the price. 8 is a huge premium on current value which is around 5-6 and the kid doesn't play center. Brady Tkachuck and Jason Robertson are similar age wise and make 8 and 7.7 respectively, both of whom had better seasons on the stat sheet. Tkachuck is paid the Ottawa premium too, so I'm not sure 8 is the number for me. Kucherov makes 9.5 and the dude just put up triple the numbers, and is on a UFA contract. I think 8 is too much.

 

I start at 8x6.5, and am probably happy if it ends at 8x7. If Lafreniere wants to take his chances on a max contract then that's fine too, but we have the pieces to continue to block his powerplay time and limit the numbers so it's not an astronomical contract, which while shitty is an excellent management tactic in this situation. 

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I think its 8 because he's going to be signing it the summer of 24- not when those guys did- Cap is up and its always hard to compare deals signed a couple years ago to those signed today. Call it an unavoidable inflationary tax. 

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1 minute ago, Flynn said:

I think its 8 because he's going to be signing it the summer of 24- not when those guys did- Cap is up and its always hard to compare deals signed a couple years ago to those signed today. Call it an unavoidable inflationary tax. 

 

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking too, Flynner!  😉

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19 minutes ago, Valriera said:

I'm sold for two reasons:

 

1. The kid has had more than one good playoff season. This season was a great playoff season. We need players who can play in the playoffs.

2. He put in the work to disprove all of the doubters, me included.

 

Yeah, he's weird, but he's converted this non-believer with what was clearly hard work and not much else on the offseason. So the length for me is 8 years. He's the future of the team.

 

I'm not sure on the price. 8 is a huge premium on current value which is around 5-6 and the kid doesn't play center. Brady Tkachuck and Jason Robertson are similar age wise and make 8 and 7.7 respectively, both of whom had better seasons on the stat sheet. Tkachuck is paid the Ottawa premium too, so I'm not sure 8 is the number for me. Kucherov makes 9.5 and the dude just put up triple the numbers, and is on a UFA contract. I think 8 is too much.

 

I start at 8x6.5, and am probably happy if it ends at 8x7. If Lafreniere wants to take his chances on a max contract then that's fine too, but we have the pieces to continue to block his powerplay time and limit the numbers so it's not an astronomical contract, which while shitty is an excellent management tactic in this situation. 

The deals you're a referencing were signed years ago so they don't apply. Florida also has no state tax. 

 

The thing is his circumstances unlikely to change regarding linemates and there's a good chance he gets power play time. 

 

If he improves on what he did this year to become a 75 to 80 point player, the cost is only going to go up. These deals never get cheaper. 

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23 minutes ago, Valriera said:

I'm sold for two reasons:

 

1. The kid has had more than one good playoff season. This season was a great playoff season. We need players who can play in the playoffs.

2. He put in the work to disprove all of the doubters, me included.

 

Yeah, he's weird, but he's converted this non-believer with what was clearly hard work and not much else on the offseason. So the length for me is 8 years. He's the future of the team.

 

I'm not sure on the price. 8 is a huge premium on current value which is around 5-6 and the kid doesn't play center. Brady Tkachuck and Jason Robertson are similar age wise and make 8 and 7.7 respectively, both of whom had better seasons on the stat sheet. Tkachuck is paid the Ottawa premium too, so I'm not sure 8 is the number for me. Kucherov makes 9.5 and the dude just put up triple the numbers, and is on a UFA contract. I think 8 is too much.

 

I start at 8x6.5, and am probably happy if it ends at 8x7. If Lafreniere wants to take his chances on a max contract then that's fine too, but we have the pieces to continue to block his powerplay time and limit the numbers so it's not an astronomical contract, which while shitty is an excellent management tactic in this situation. 

 

Current value is higher than 5-6.  He's getting very little power play time and there is no reason for him to bargain until power play time is assumed.

 

If Laf was on PP1 last season he is 70-75 pts with ease and that's a $8M a year player given it was his breakout season and the expectation is he gets better the following seasons.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Br4d said:

 

Current value is higher than 5-6.  He's getting very little power play time and there is no reason for him to bargain until power play time is assumed.

 

If Laf was on PP1 last season he is 70-75 pts with ease and that's a $8M a year player given it was his breakout season and the expectation is he gets better the following seasons.


Agreed, and if he’s worth about 8 now, then why would he sell his whole 20s at 8 per?

 

I don’t think the Rangers will be able to get him to sign for 8 years without an overpayment of what he is worth now, and 8 million is not an overpayment. I think a smart agent would only have him consider between 4-5 years at that number.

 

After 4-5 years he can hit UFA at 28-29 and cash in well into double digits per for a 7-8 year deal.

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2 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:


Agreed, and if he’s worth about 8 now, then why would he sell his whole 20s at 8 per?

 

I don’t think the Rangers will be able to get him to sign for 8 years without an overpayment of what he is worth now, and 8 million is not an overpayment. I think a smart agent would only have him consider between 4-5 years at that number.

 

After 4-5 years he can hit UFA at 28-29 and cash in well into double digits per for a 7-8 year deal.

I think this would be true if his body of work was better. If you sign him this summer it's guaranteed $64M. Signing for just 4-5 at that number, if it was mostly Panarin, or if he gets hurt, or if he regresses, that's a lot of money left on the table.

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4 hours ago, Pete said:

Do you want to go back and check this post before I respond? 😉 

Brotha...I was talking about his age....hence the comments about past injury. All good though!

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14 minutes ago, jsm7302 said:

Brotha...I was talking about his age....hence the comments about past injury. All good though!

I don't get it, in 8 years he'll be 30, not 36...And he has no injury history...

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I wonder if he would be amendable to 8x6.75. $54 Million total. Gonna sound wild, but the fact he finished 2 goals short of 30 may actually help our case here. Just an idea. Lets him hit the market at age 30, coming off a $54 Million dollar contract.

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4 minutes ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

I wouldn't worry about Shesterkin or Lafraniere until I got rid of Trouba, acquired a 3C, acquired a top 6 RW and addressed D.

 

The reason you worry about Laf now is so that you can extend him before he has another amazing season and demands more money. 

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33 minutes ago, Pete said:

I don't get it, in 8 years he'll be 30, not 36...And he has no injury history...

Hahahaha I literally thought this was the Shesterkin thread. I just looked at the title after you pointed this out. I just followed the notifications to respond. IDIOT!

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4 minutes ago, phillyb said:

 

The reason you worry about Laf now is so that you can extend him before he has another amazing season and demands more money. 

Still not as important to sign him as it is to fix the other problems.  And you meant if he has his first amazing season.  I wouldn't call this season anything more than above average.

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2 minutes ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

Still not as important to sign him as it is to fix the other problems.  And you meant if he has his first amazing season.  I wouldn't call this season anything more than above average.

There's an unmistakable arc of progression happening, and if you don't pay him now you will pay him much more later. 

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