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2023 Reasonable Expectations


jsm7302

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In hopes of avoiding our core being labeled as whipping boys, I figured it could be fruitful to find reasonable expectations from a few overperformers and underperformers last year.

 

Overperformers:

Kreider- 30 goals, 25 assists

52 goals was a HUGE anomaly but we can expect some growth from the man so hitting 30 goals is reasonable imo with his career average of about 25ish assists. Im expecting a drop off but still consistency from our assistant captain.

 

Shesty- 32 wins, 2.5 gaa, .930 sv%

Franchise goalie that may not mirror his vezina winning season BUT should wholly be expected to be well above average in the crease.

 

Goodrow- 10 goals, 10 assists

We can't expect this character player to repeat a career best season. Bring the character and swagger to the 4th line, that's all we ask.

 

Underperformers:

Laffy - 25 goals, 20 assists

#1 OA left lofty expectations for this kid although his trajectory is showing promise, it hasnt met the expectations of many. Keep this kid on an upward trend without expecting a superstar breakout season. I think he is on the verge of putting it all together but we shall see.

 

Chytil- 15 goals, 20 assists

Still disappointing unless he shows up like he did at the tail end of the playoffs. I think we have seen the stripes on this zebra and they aren't going to change. Def not 2nd line material but maybe he can progress and take over the third line- fingers crossed.

 

Sammy Blais- 60gp

Just stay healthy man and contribute something, please!

 

Kakko- 15 goals, 20 assists

Still disappointing unless he shows up like he did at the tail end of the playoffs. I think we have seen the stripes on this zebra and they aren't going to change. Def not 2nd line material but maybe he can progress and take over the third line- fingers crossed. (Feels like I've typed this before......)

 

Unknowns:

Trochek- 25 goals, 35 assists

Almost replicates his year last year with a little uptick. He is expected to play with Bread so I'd hope something ticks up a bit.

 

Krav- 15 goals, 20 assists

I dont wanna pin any expectations here but we may as well since he is stepping onto line #2 supposedly. I filled expect him to experience life on lines 2-4 though. More fingers crossed.

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Blais has a lot to prove this season.  I think he's going to be a bit of a surprise for us.

 

With Chytil's contract up at the end of this season, I still think he's one of the front-runners to get dealt in a deadline deal for a "Put us over the top" type player.

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Honestly, whatever their career averages are is what my expectations for them are. For Kravtsov, let's see if he actually sticks in the NHL before anything.

 

They're probably worse on paper, but still have arguably the best goalie in the league, so they'll live and die by him, again.

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I think Strome is going to be missed once Kreider/Zibanejad come to earth a bit, Chytil stays at 23 points, Panarin plays like he’s 31, and older vets brought in continue their injury woes. 
 

This team is going to need a lot from Lafreniere and Kakko to replicate the success of last season, but I’m not sure they were put in a spot to develop to be those players last season and prior. 

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I'm not expecting 52 goals from CK, but I'm expecting more than 30.  He would have previously had some 30 goal seasons absent injuries and he has really perfected his close in game.  He's also converting more off the rush than he did previously.  I'd say a reasonable expectation is 38 or maybe 40.

 

With LaF, it's all a matter of how he's being used.  If he's on the Rangers' 1:40 per 2:00 first PP and first line, we need to see over 30 from him.  If he ends up in a less prominent role, 25 would be fine.

 

The last several years have been the "make or break" year for Chytil.  Well, this one really really has to be.

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If we’re gonna be successful this year it’s because the kids made it so. I expect regressions out of everyone except laf kakko miller and fox. This is their team, they’ve been in the league long enough, and it’s time for them to do more. Or we just won’t be as successful as we were which is also fine bc that was a bit of a surprise 

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25 minutes ago, BlairBettsBlocksEverything said:

Kakko 25 goals incoming

 

Laf 30 goals incoming

 

Kreider will hit 35

 

Panarin and Zibanejad are the same players again

 

Chytil 45 points

 

Miller has a more offensive breakout season

 

Oh and we at least go to the finals. just getting these in writing now

 

Too early for the ballsy prediction thread.

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Kreider remains the wild card with the most variance possible to me. He could come crashing back to earth and go back to potting 25 or so, with huge cold stretches, or he could end up with 50 again. Neither would surprise me in the slightest because of how he scores his goals.

 

Ryan Strome wasn't his primary puck supplier on PP1. The guys who fed him all year are still here. One year older, but not old. It's entirely plausible he repeats.

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I don’t see why Kreider wouldn’t get 35 with a shot for 40. The PP will still be incredibly deadly. He’ll still get gobs of goals in front.
 

Kreider 2019-2021 (first 2 years with Panarin and Zibanejad got good):


14.5 PPG / 82 GP

17.4 ES Goals / 82 GP

32 Goals / 82 GP

 

If not for covid he’d very likely have 2 30-35 goal seasons under his belt.


Last year (81 games so basically per 82):

 

26 ES Goals

26 PPG 


I see his ES goals normalizing back down to the 17 range. I see his PPG dipping some

back to ~18-20.

 

Lock: 25

Very likely: 30

Fairly likely: 35

Optimistic: 40

Drinking Blue Kool Aid: 45

Being a Rangers Twitter Fan on an Ozzy-level bender: 50+

 

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A player I key in on here is Trocheck. Just about every center who has ever played with Panarin has seen their numbers exceed expectation. Trocheck may be, and in no offense to Strome, but Trocheck may be the best center he has yet to play with. How they blend is key for this team. You already know what you’re likely to get out of the Zibanejad unit. If Trocheck can come in and see his numbers boost as an effect of having Panarin by his side (mid-20s or so into the 30s perhaps?), then this teams offense is going to be absolutely lethal.


Listen, we’re a real good team guys. Not afraid to admit that. I think we all can agree. We’re not perfect, but there aren’t many rosters I would trade for ours. Definitely a contender for the division, definitely a contender for the Cup. We’re young, we have arguably the best goalie in the world, we have players who might crack 100 points this season, we have players capable of filling the net, we have a frightening Power Play, we have a Top-3 or 4 defenseman in the sport, followed by a strong group (that needs to tighten up a bit, sure), we have one of the better coaches in the sport, we’re young, and now, we have experience. The possibilities are endless. A lot of good can happen this upcoming season. Obviously, scenarios exist where this falls way off the tracks, but that can be said for anyone. As it stands, this is a team going in the right direction. It should be a very fun season.

Edited by RichieNextel305
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^Richie for post of the year!

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
 

I'm in that optimist camp too. We have much to look forward to. These guys saw what the promised land looks like and they know they need to give more. Panarin disappears again in the playoffs? I’ll hunt him down and lay a NY beating on him. Much at stake and I think we learned valuable lessons last year. Let’s go. Let’s go Rangers. 

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If Kreider reverts to a 28-30 goal scorer that is a massive disappointing season for him. That’s not realistic, that’s reverting. I get that 52 is likely not attainable, but he learned how to change his game to increase scoring even in the games he might not be at his best. That basically nulled any long term cold streak. He needs to be in the high 30s to low 40s with this team and this Powerplay. 

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Kreider's shooting % was 20.2% last season, and 19.6% the year before. Prior to that, he didn't have any above 15.4% in the last 8 seasons. It's actually increased for five straight seasons.

 

It could be considered a blip, or an upward trajectory. I think Kreider has also changed his game a lot being a net front presence instead of just a speedy, sometimes physical winger. I think he needs to be a 30+ goal scorer and based on style of play, where he's scoring from, and his last two seasons shooting % he can absolutely attain it. Guy's got 72 goals in his last 131 games. 

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Schneider produces offense this year 25, 30ish points. 

 

Kakko has his breakthrough season. 45 points. 20 goals

 

Miller gets better offensively too. Starts carrying the puck in deep and scoring on the rush. 35 points. 15 goals

 

Kravstov steps in and just fits. Plays with Panarin and that line dominates but more due to this duo. Trocheck is just gonna kinda be there. 25 goals.

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4 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Schneider produces offense this year 25, 30ish points. 

 

Kakko has his breakthrough season. 45 points. 20 goals

 

Miller gets better offensively too. Starts carrying the puck in deep and scoring on the rush. 35 points. 15 goals

 

Kravstov steps in and just fits. Plays with Panarin and that line dominates but more due to this duo. Trocheck is just gonna kinda be there. 25 goals.


The fact 45 pts would be a breakout for Kakko in 4 years is depressing.

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4 minutes ago, rmc51 said:


The fact 45 pts would be a breakout for Kakko in 4 years is depressing.

He's going to be on the 3rd line. I don't know how much you can expect from a guy getting those minutes. 

 

Do we see any scenario where he can earn a top 6 roster spot? Pretty sure we won't see him on a line with Panarin ever again. 

 

I totally hope it happens. Just don't see it with how the top 6 is likely to turn out. I'm figuring Kravtsov and Lafreniere with some Blais mixed in there are your top 6 RWs. Then the depth chart will be players Gallant has been forcing in there like Hunt, THEN  Kakko. That's just how it is right now. 

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24 minutes ago, The Dude said:

He's going to be on the 3rd line. I don't know how much you can expect from a guy getting those minutes. 

 

Do we see any scenario where he can earn a top 6 roster spot? Pretty sure we won't see him on a line with Panarin ever again. 

 

I totally hope it happens. Just don't see it with how the top 6 is likely to turn out. I'm figuring Kravtsov and Lafreniere with some Blais mixed in there are your top 6 RWs. Then the depth chart will be players Gallant has been forcing in there like Hunt, THEN  Kakko. That's just how it is right now. 

3rd line minutes with Chytil and Gauthier  (or hunt, for you) and no PP time should mean 70-80 points for the kid! Nothing less is acceptable!!!

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