[brooks] This Feels Like the End for Chris Kreider and the Rangers

[Phil]

But before president John Davidson and general manager Jeff Gorton close the book on Phase One, they must decide whether to extend Chris Kreider?s contract, which has one season to go at $4.625 million before he is eligible for unrestricted free agency, or trade No. 20 before the start of the season, if not ideally before the start of Friday?s first round of the entry draft so the team can snag another first-rounder.

 

And, with The Post learning that Gorton and the winger?s rep, Matt Keator, had not yet had a substantive conversation about numbers at least as of Wednesday night, the feeling increasingly is that The. Rangers. Will. Trade. Chris.

 

This decision would not be about subtracting payroll for next season in order to accommodate pursuit of Panarin and any other player or combination of players, though that is a necessity. That is among the reasons Group II free agent Pavel Buchnevich is available, and so too are Jimmy Vesey and Vlad Namestnikov, though the Rangers can?t simply unload a passel of high-minute forwards, dress a team of 22-and-unders, and expect the kids to flourish without significant veteran support in the room and on the ice.

 

It is not about next year for Kreider. It is about the six or seven that will follow at what surely will be for the ballpark price of $6.75 million per, perhaps higher. Kreider is a Blueblood, one of a mere three remaining on the roster ? with Henrik Lundqvist and Marc Staal ? from the 2012 Black-and-Blueshirt playoff march to the conference finals. He is part of franchise lore, too, joining the team fresh off the BC campus following its NCAA Championship victory to record five goals in that tournament. He has been a leader through this transition period.

 

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[Gunnar Stahl]

This may be pure fantasy on my part, but could a package of Kreider and Vesey land us a top 15 pick?

[josh]

[ThirtyONE]

I'm still on the fence with Kreider. I think if he can be resigned for a decent price -- he's a good leader to have on the team.

 

If he's traded, I get it. For the first time in a long time, the rangers have a surplus of talent.

[josh]

This may be pure fantasy on my part, but could a package of Kreider and Vesey land us a top 15 pick?

 

Rangers were scouting for the 8/9 spot for a long time. They probably have a favorite or two. If that names slips, theyll jump on it.

 

It wont be two upcoming UFAs, though.Teams need a signed player, RFA, or a pick.

[Future]

I think you'd have to knock my tits off at the draft for me to want to trade Kreider.

[ThirtyONE]

I think you'd have to knock my tits off at the draft for me to want to trade Kreider.

 

But what would you be willing to pay him?

[josh]

Trade Kreider

Dont land Panarin

#1 LW is Jimm Vesey

 

#1 overall pick next season, baby

[Future]

But what would you be willing to pay him?

I'd have no problem with 6x$6.5

[Slobberknocker]

given hayes got 7 years not sure how chris could command more than that or be damn close to that number.

[ThirtyONE]

I'd have no problem with 6x$6.5

 

Are you paying for what he's done or what you hope he does?

 

I'd argue neither are worth that much term or money. I actually think Kreider will age well considering what kind of shape he keeps himself in but can we afford 6.5 million on someone who's not even putting up 50 points when we have Kakko and/or Kravstov to pay at a much higher rate?

[Future]

Are you paying for what he's done or what you hope he does?

 

I'd argue neither are worth that much term or money. I actually think Kreider will age well considering what kind of shape he keeps himself in but can we afford 6.5 million on someone who's not even putting up 50 points when we have Kakko and/or Kravstov to pay at a much higher rate?

No GM in the league, or in any sport, gives a player term for what they have done. Sometimes, they add years beyond when they think a player will be as effective because that's just what it costs to sign a guy.

 

Yes, I think he can be a 25-30 goal player at 33. He's not the type who has a game that is just going to fall off a cliff at 30 because, despite all his physical tools, he doesn't depend on them. I think he's too cerebral, but because he thinks the game and does all his scoring at the front of the net, I don't see why his scoring would just disappear. He's very much like Joe Pavelski, in that way. If he was the player I'd like him to be (~23 goals and just wrecking shit all the time), I wouldn't say the same.

 

Carl Hagelin just got ~$4m and hasn't scored even 30 points since 2016. The $1m/10 points rule isn't real. Also, Kreider has had over 50 points in 2 of his last 3 seasons, and paced 50 the year he got hurt. As a UFA, that puts him at at least $6m all day.

[CCCP]

No GM in the league, or in any sport, gives a player term for what they have done. Sometimes, they add years beyond when they think a player will be as effective because that's just what it costs to sign a guy.

 

Yes, I think he can be a 25-30 goal player at 33. He's not the type who has a game that is just going to fall off a cliff at 30 because, despite all his physical tools, he doesn't depend on them. I think he's too cerebral, but because he thinks the game and does all his scoring at the front of the net, I don't see why his scoring would just disappear. He's very much like Joe Pavelski, in that way. If he was the player I'd like him to be (~23 goals and just wrecking shit all the time), I wouldn't say the same.

 

Carl Hagelin just got ~$4m and hasn't scored even 30 points since 2016. The $1m/10 points rule isn't real. Also, Kreider has had over 50 points in 2 of his last 3 seasons, and paced 50 the year he got hurt. As a UFA, that puts him at at least $6m all day.

 

I see Kreider as complete opposite from your point of view. I see him dependent on his speed and legs are first to go as players age. he gets few goals around the net, but only about half of his goals. His hockey IQ, IMO, is low. he's not a smart hockey player. I see him as bust in few years.

[Future]

I see Kreider as complete opposite from your point of view. I see him dependent on his speed and legs are first to go as players age. he gets few goals around the net, but only about half of his goals. His hockey IQ, IMO, is low. he's not a smart hockey player. I see him as bust in few years.

You're completely, unequivocally wrong. NHL Stats page is down, becuase of course it is, but he's like 2nd or 3rd in the league over the last few years in tip-in goals.

[CCCP]

You're completely, unequivocally wrong. NHL Stats page is down, becuase of course it is, but he's like 2nd or 3rd in the league over the last few years in tip-in goals.

 

ok...so how many tip-in goals do you think he had?

[NYR2711]

You don’t move him without talking to his agent and seeing what he wants and also without knowing if they are signing Panarin or not. If he is traded and Panarin signs in Florida, the offense will have a huge hole. I would sign him because he and Zib have great chemistry together and produce well together.

[Future]

ok...so how many tip-in goals do you think he had?

His goals mostly come from around the net. I don't know, off the top of my head, how many. Here's all of htem, you can count:

 

 

But it's not like he's just racing into the high slot in transition and scoring all his goals from the high slot lol. Yes he scores with speed, but that's not his primary work.

[CCCP]

His goals all come from around the net. I don't know, off the top of my head, how many.

 

But it's not like he's just racing into the high slot in transition and scoring all his goals from the high slot lol.

 

but I said about half of goals come around the net. half is about 14. you're saying all of his goals came around the net which isn't true.

[Future]

but I said about half of goals come around the net. half is about 14. you're saying all of his goals came around the net which isn't true.

eyeroll

 

It's speaking colloquially. I edited anyways. Half is low, and the semantics of that aren't the point anyways.

 

My point is that he can score goals around the net, and does it as well as most any player in the league, and that translates to longevity. Yes, as he ages he'll lose some of the goals where he speeds down the wing (probably, not every guy loses speed), but that is not what his scoring is based on. You might lose the handful of highlight reel goals, but the ones in front of the net aren't going away, and thats where he predominantly scores.

[tphilly5]

An article like this should generate some urgency to get people to the table. $6.75m per sounds like a bargain in this environment. 27 is his prime. Put him with Zib and we got a top line.

[Sod16]

Is this organization going to trade every quality 26 to 28 year old player when he is within a year of a new contract? Sure seems that way. As Brooks points out, do you really want to field a team of 22 year olds? I'm afraid there haven't been substantive discussion of numbers with Kreider's agent because everyone knows, within a narrow span, what his next contract is going to look like: six years at seven per. I guess Gorton doesn't want to pay that.

[ThirtyONE]

No GM in the league, or in any sport, gives a player term for what they have done. Sometimes, they add years beyond when they think a player will be as effective because that's just what it costs to sign a guy.

 

Yes, I think he can be a 25-30 goal player at 33. He's not the type who has a game that is just going to fall off a cliff at 30 because, despite all his physical tools, he doesn't depend on them. I think he's too cerebral, but because he thinks the game and does all his scoring at the front of the net, I don't see why his scoring would just disappear. He's very much like Joe Pavelski, in that way. If he was the player I'd like him to be (~23 goals and just wrecking shit all the time), I wouldn't say the same.

 

Carl Hagelin just got ~$4m and hasn't scored even 30 points since 2016. The $1m/10 points rule isn't real. Also, Kreider has had over 50 points in 2 of his last 3 seasons, and paced 50 the year he got hurt. As a UFA, that puts him at at least $6m all day.

 

A couple of things here:

 

GMs pay for past accomplishments all the time -- in every sport. Karlsson was just paid the biggest contract of his life yet nobody thinks he's about to suddenly become a better hockey player at the age of 29. Certainly, nobody thinks he'll be even as good as he is now 8 years in the future, at 37. They're paying him for what he's done, not what he's going to become. Scientifically speaking, he's peaked. He'll likely have a few years of plateau if the Sharks are lucky but he's going to become a slower, less valuable player over the course of this contract.

 

My second point of contention is that he's nothing like Joe Pavelski. He may score goals in front of the net but that's where the similarities ends. Joe Pavelski has been a goal scorer his whole career. And I don't mean almost 30 goals twice. I mean double what Kreider has achieved for 10 years running. If Kreider was putting up 30-40 goals a year, I'd have an easier time overpaying him, because even if he declined or lost a step, you'd assume he could still put up 20-30.

 

I'm not saying Kreider isn't worth $6m on the market. Kevin Hayes is worth $7m on the market. Carl Hagelin is worth $4m. The market is whatever someone pays. That doesn't mean that's a good buy. My point is, we don't need to be the team that pays 6 x 6.5, as you suggest, for a 50 point player when we can skip that middle ground of mediocrity entirely. I'd much rather pay Pavelski or Panarin more money to be more effective.

 

You have to also think too: we're assuming Kakko will be a franchise player. Franchise players might be making 12 million in 3 years. Kravstov might be an incredible player, He might be making 9-10 million in 3 years. Panarin might be on the team, making 11 million in three years. At that point Kreider is 31 taking up a chunk of cap that makes little sense to me.

 

If Kreider wants to stay, I'm fine with it, so long as it's under 6. Anything else and he's not worth the headache.

[ThirtyONE]

Is this organization going to trade every quality 26 to 28 year old player when he is within a year of a new contract? Sure seems that way. As Brooks points out, do you really want to field a team of 22 year olds? I'm afraid there haven't been substantive discussion of numbers with Kreider's agent because everyone knows, within a narrow span, what his next contract is going to look like: six years at seven per. I guess Gorton doesn't want to pay that.

 

Define quality.

[Mr.wiskers]

I agree with what was said earlier, if we deal Kreider without having Panarin signed we risk taking a huge step back, if we end up with neither.

 

 

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[Fatfrancesa]

I agree with what was said earlier, if we deal Kreider without having Panarin signed we risk taking a huge step back, if we end up with neither.

 

 

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Only a problem for next season. This is a rebuild. It is not about next year.