BrooksBurner

https://theathletic.com/5467049/2024/05/03/2024-nhl-playoff-preview-new-york-rangers-vs-carolina-hurricanes

Dom’s model has it at 66-34 odds in favor of the Canes. That’s the biggest gap I’ve seen. I don’t think that’s crediting the goalie difference enough

9 hours ago, RichieNextel305 said:

VGK-DAL Game 7 Sunday. BOS-TOR Game 7 tomorrow. Can we finally get this fucking schedule already? Good God. The series starts tomorrow and we don’t even know when 6 of the games will be played. This is insane.

I don’t really understand why game 2 hasn’t been scheduled yet. The Knicks have the garden Monday and Wednesday. It obviously has to be Tuesday and whatever is currently scheduled that night is getting punted

1 hour ago, Pete said:

We can also recognize that You keep saying "we" Even though you're a hurricanes fan. 

 

But fuck the hurricanes. 

 

How do you like them apples?

That was that person's first post. You're such a miserable person lmao

2 hours ago, Red White and Brew said:

We can also recognize that Carolina plays a very aggressive forecheck that could give the Rangers trouble. It’s well known the Rangers are not a dominant 5v5 team and the Hurricanes are the one team that can go toe to toe with them on Special Teams. 

Some will point to the Rangers sweeping the regular season. Well that was true two years ago against the Lightning too and we lost in 6 after leading 2-0 in the series. 
 

The Hurricanes also acquired Guentzel at the deadline, who has lit up the Rangers throughout his career and could be the scoring threat they need to take the next step. 

 

Will give the Rangers the tie breaker based on the way Igor is playing of late and the relative health. Have to win at least 1 of the first 2. Win both and we probably win in 5. Want Panarin to keep shooting.

 

Whoever wins the series (and Eastern Conference) will certainly have earned it 

Sounds like a fair assessment

Great win last night. Excellent series

Up next, Indiana, good team but I like the Knicks' chances quite a lot

55 minutes ago, NEKRanger said:

The predictive value of various statistics are based on the law of large numbers.  Over 1312 games in a season, the teams with better %GF 5v5 (or whatever) will have a better than 0.5 probability of winning.  This doesn't necessarily distill down to picking who will win 4 games in a 7 game series unless the difference is really large.   

It seems that matchups - find if a team's biggest strength matches an opponent's glairing weakness - or team character will matter more at this stage.

Great post.

I would probably say the odds are in the 60/40 range in favor of the Canes because of the 5v5 advantage. That’s far from a lock. Both teams have a good chance to win. The Canes’ chance is just a little higher. Just have to follow the money. There’s a reason the Rangers are the betting underdogs in this series.

8 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

 

 

 

The only thing that will fix this is for the two of you to just take a long weekend up to Brokeback Mountain and see what happens. 

 

You’ve clearly got it for each other, which is totally fine.

Love you both regardless.

 

But seriously… go do stuff in the forest together. Cause the rest of us can’t listen to this anymore.

Entertaining as it is… cause it is. But this affection you have for one another shouldn’t be denied. 
 

Embrace it fellas!

 

 

 

And see what happens? I know what will happen. He’ll try to give me the aids he got from another board member whose username rhymes with Albatross, and I’ll decline

You sound pretty jelly…“no cap” as the kids say these days

12 minutes ago, Pete said:

You don't make the stats, but you create a narrative based on which you think are meaningful for the narrative, while simultaneously ignoring a ton of other metrics. Hence not seeing the forest for the trees.

You keep repeating this, and I keep repeating why it's different, and you keep ignoring it and pretending it doesn't mean anything. I know why you do, and it's funny.

 

What you also ignore is that by the time the playoffs started in each of the last 2 years, I've said the same thing I've said this year: Once your in it's a race to 16 wins and it doesn't matter how you get there.

 

You think it's too simple, yet that's what it is. It doesn't need to be complex.

I don’t create the narrative either. The linkage between 5v5 analytics and Cup winners is not something I conjured up myself. Hate the game, not the player.

Yeah, you keep repeating things that aren’t accurate or don’t actually refute anything, and you know that. Instead of recognizing the strong linkage between 5v5 analytics and Cup winners, you try to galaxy brain it why it’s totally different for this team. I don’t agree and your counter argument is flimsy. Deal with it!

3 minutes ago, Pete said:

In your view, maybe, because you're not seeing the forest for the trees.

 

They went first place wire to wire. They won a President's Trophy. They are a special teams juggernaut. They are deep. They are well coached. They have the best goalie left in the playoffs.

 

But sure, they don't pass some obscure analytical filter you're setting up.

It’s not my view. I don’t make the stats.

The last two years you observed and recognized the same stats. This year you ignore them and pretend they don’t mean anything. I know why you do, and it’s funny.

4 hours ago, LindG1000 said:

 

 

The flaw with xGF as a ratio is that it fails to account for shot quality. So, when you have teams that are great at forecheck pressure and great at just...shooting pucks, they're going to hold the xGF% every single time. And truthfully - having the puck, pressuring puck carriers, shooting the puck - these are generally things that help you control a game and win them.

 

Think about how xGF "accrues" throughout a game - look at the way Vally pushes that data, for example. The "Corsi Canes" love, and I mean love, to shoot the puck. We've heard the term "chuckers" a few times here, and that might be accurate. An "everything to the net" approach is great for accruing low-danger xGF - those only really become high-danger chances when there's a rebound, so the Canes get in the zone, shoot low, and crash the net. And they maybe do this 30 times a game, so let's say that's .05 xGF a chance with three spiking into mid-high danger - those moments ALONE accrue ~1.7 xGF. It's a really smart formula, and it works often, but even if you consider the Islanders series - they needed goalie mistakes to get out of the series in 5, because that's how the system works.

 

So, yeah, of course, they're going to hold that "constant" 55%-45% xGF advantage - but when you can keep them off the counter and keep them to the outside, you're not going to have to worry about that advantage because it's volume shooting at low-quality and you've got Igor back there.

Yes, there’s a lot of truth here. That’s why you have to also look at scoring chance quality, high danger in particular. The Canes are much better there and around the top of the league too, both for and against. The Rangers are not.

These things are the best indicators that exist of what a team needs to be good in to win a Cup. It’s the best differentiator that exists for separating contenders from pretenders. It’s pretty tough for a contender to beat multiple other contenders in the NHL grind. It’s even tougher as a pretender, and the Rangers profile as a pretender.

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Of course it makes sense, you just don't like seeing your north star stat crumbled. 

This doesn’t make sense either lol

0 fer 2

24 minutes ago, Pete said:

Here's the easy answer, that stat is a nice retrospective to kind of get a sense of who carried play, but it is in no way an indicator of who will win a future game. 

 

Anyone who's using that stat as a predictor of how a series will go is doing it wrong. In that sense, it's pointless. 

8 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

So Rempe doesn't start and the Rangers lose game one and Laviolette has to deal with that pressure now also.

 

The easy answer is start Rempe and then if he creates conditions where you want Chytil instead you dress Chytil instead.

 

This team looks different when Rempe is playing.

So what? Lavi should be worried about best matchups, not questions from the press if they lose.

Are Rempe’s 6 min a game against Washington why they won all 4 games?

2 hours ago, Br4d said:

 

18-2-1.

 

Even Laviolette is going to have to look at that set of numbers and wonder if he can bench Rempe and still win.

3-1-1 against playoff teams not named the Islanders. 0 games for reference against the Canes.

13 of those wins were against non playoff teams. The fact Rempe is super fun to watch against the Devils of the world doesn’t mean he’s the reason for the wins in that stretch. There should be legitimate concern he’s not a good enough skater against the Canes, and that Lavi didn’t trust him in the 3rd periods against a bad team like the Caps will leave the bench short. Especially if we start getting into OT games. Part of that isn’t Rempe’s fault. I think Lavi is scared the refs have targeted him and doesn’t want penalties at critical times.

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

What's the over/under on number of Canes defenders Rempe knocks out of this series — 1.5?

Have to see if Rempe even plays…this is kind of an anti-Rempe matchup here.

4 minutes ago, Albatrosss said:

what does your dick say?

It says hello to your wife

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Deleted?

That was a sickening loss

Just running down the list:

Special Teams: Even (2 years ago: Rangers, modest edge)

Depth: Even (2 years ago: Canes, big edge)

Faceoffs: Even (2 years ago: Canes, big edge)

Physicality: Even (2 years ago: Canes, modest edge)

5v5: Canes, big edge (unchanged)

Goaltending: Rangers, big edge (unchanged)

Scoring Talent: Rangers, slight edge (2 years ago: Rangers, big edge)

Coaching: Even (2 years ago: Canes, slight edge)

I think the Rangers completely closed the gaps on depth/faceoffs/physicality/coaching, and the Canes closed the gap on special teams and narrowed the gap on scoring talent w/ the Guentzel add and progression of Jarvis/Necas. The Rangers were sizable underdogs two years ago and Igor stole it. This time around is a closer matchup in every department except two, and those two haven't changed at all from 2 years ago: 5v5 and goaltending. We talk all of the time about how the Rangers shouldn't pay Shesterkin his next contract because it's not how you build a Cup winner, and that teams should spend the money on the rest of the team because if the team is playing the right way at 5v5, then the goalie matters less. The reason for that is that, more often than not, great 5v5 play matters more than paying a great goalie. The Canes have that edge. They will have the puck in the Rangers' end of the ice more in this series. They will generate more chances, and they have a more cohesive forecheck. This is all pretty guaranteed to happen. This is why the betting odds will favor the Canes, and it should, but it's not a lock. The Rangers will need Shesterkin to be the difference again, and he's capable.

Head says Canes in 6, maybe 5.

Heart and hope says Rangers in 6, maybe 7.

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Well you spent a large amount of time arguing otherwise.

 

No they don't. Maybe Panarin but not Zib. Left handed shots on the left half wall aren't much of a thing if you look at other successful PPs. They want one-timers.

Well you’re just wrong on both accounts here.
 

There are plenty of examples, but the premise you started with that Kreider’s position on the PP has anything to do with Lafreniere is honestly just nuts. I don’t know of any teams who put their first overall picks in front of the net on the PP, in a position where the puck isn’t on their stick to create chances and take shots.

3 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

I wanted him traded because I didn't see them being competitive so fast and I thought Kreider would net a huge return.

 

I was fine with 6.5m, but didn't like the term.

I wonder what the trade offers were like. I think we all assumed a 1st and a B prospect. So a pick in the 20s and we would have watched Kreider post 40 goals a year elsewhere. That would have been so brutal. Gotta give Gorton some props for sure for that decision. It wasn’t an easy one.

13 minutes ago, Pete said:

It must be tough to stand Kreids and Lafreniere, since Kreider is pretty much the main reason Lafreniere hasn't gotten the prime ice time and PP time other #1 picks get.

 

Can't have it both ways (if anyone is among the "team messed up Lafreniere development" crowd.

Lafreniere’s main problem didn’t have anything to do with opportunity. It is evident that it was pretty solely related to his physical training.
 

Zibanejad and Panarin block Lafreniere on the PP because those are the positions he would be playing. Kreider blocks…Will Cuylle as a big net front presence I guess? No biggie.

Just now, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

Elite company.

 

Thank god Gorton re-signed him instead of listening to (almost) all fans that wanted him traded. I was one of them and I'm happily eating crow now.

Yeah I remember being in the trade Kreider boat given where the team was at, but the train of thought leading up to it was that he was going to get mid-7s on a long term extension. I think pretty much everyone was a bit surprised to see the 6.5 per, and that was before he became one of the best bonafide first line goal scoring wingers in the league. He’s been performing at roughly a $9m pay rate for 3 years now. Incredible.