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Thread: Rangers Buyout Final Year of Henrik Lundqvist's Contract

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    Ah, ok. Well, that's closer, but I still wouldn't do it. What/who would use the additional cap space for? If there was a "no doubter" available via Free Agency that made sense (like Panarin last year), I would be much more open to it (like I was with buying out Shattenkirk last year to make the space). I just don't see that quality of player available, so I'm not sure why we need an additional 8.5M of cap space. I'm not even sure we'll need any additional cap space if we just keep our own, minus maybe Fast.
    It ensures that they can give DeAngelo a longer term deal, as well as give Strome a decent deal. Lemieux too.

    OR, you sit back and wait for cap casualties and load up. There's gotta be some free agents that people are interested in to fill out the D and the bottom six.

    I don't cherish that late 1st pick as much as I do DeAngelo and Strome being here past this coming season. That 8.5 goes right to these two for the next 3-5 years if they lock them up now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dude View Post
    It ensures that they can give DeAngelo a longer term deal, as well as give Strome a decent deal. Lemieux too.

    OR, you sit back and wait for cap casualties and load up. There's gotta be some free agents that people are interested in to fill out the D and the bottom six.

    I don't cherish that late 1st pick as much as I do DeAngelo and Strome being here past this coming season. That 8.5 goes right to these two for the next 3-5 years if they lock them up now.
    Even if they do this, buying out Henrik should be enough.

    14.4M current cap space + 3M Lundqvist buyout savings = 17.4M space to fill 4F, 2D, 1G - and assumes Brendan Smith is 7th D/13th F.

    4F:
    Strome 5M (3 yrs)
    Lafreniere 925K ELC
    Lemieux 1.2M (1-2 yrs)
    Barron/Kravtsov/Richards 925k ELC

    2D:
    DeAngelo 6M (5 yrs)
    Reunanen/Hajek (<850k)

    1G:
    Georgiev 1.5M (1 yr)

    Cost: 16.4M

    An extra mill to spare to use towards bonuses, or to carry an additional player on roster if/when needed.

    Panarin - Strome - Kakko
    Kreider - Zib - Buch
    Lafreniere - Chytil - Kravtsov
    Lemieux - Howden - Gauthier

    Lindgren - Fox
    Reunanen - Trouba
    Staal - DeAngelo

    Smith

    Shesty/Georgiev
    Last edited by rmc51; 09-20-2020 at 11:54 PM.

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    Why is Strome taking 5m for 3 years when he will be a ufa after next season? He has arb rights and was on pace for about 70 points. If they aren’t going to pay him what his worth is, I don’t see him giving up ufa years. In the top 50 in points this season, he is the 4th lowest paid. Only Barzal, Pettersson, and Svechnikov make less in the top 50.

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    Strome is the highest paid among players in the top 50 who have a long history of mediocrity before a season with the best playmaker in the league. I think opposing GMs would be plenty leery of giving him a big long term contract as a UFA. He had a good season last year, but, for what it's worth, no one on this board, with its diverse opinions, seems to think of him as a good long term option or commitment for NYR.

  5. #305
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keirik View Post
    Why is Strome taking 5m for 3 years when he will be a ufa after next season? He has arb rights and was on pace for about 70 points. If they aren’t going to pay him what his worth is, I don’t see him giving up ufa years. In the top 50 in points this season, he is the 4th lowest paid. Only Barzal, Pettersson, and Svechnikov make less in the top 50.
    What if hs regresses to the 35 pt player he has been throughout his career? 3 yrs locks him into some money and he'll be young enough for another nice contract after. I'm even better with 1 or 2 years, but I think he'll want a little bit of term in case he regresses. I don't see the Rangers throwing much more money, if any more, at him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sod16 View Post
    Strome is the highest paid among players in the top 50 who have a long history of mediocrity before a season with the best playmaker in the league. I think opposing GMs would be plenty leery of giving him a big long term contract as a UFA. He had a good season last year, but, for what it's worth, no one on this board, with its diverse opinions, seems to think of him as a good long term option or commitment for NYR.
    It's funny to me because people just keep waiting for Strome to fail and he just keeps ... Not failing.

    Plenty of players in the league are late bloomers. We've covered it alot. Look at Marchand, Wheeler, etc.

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    Has Lundqvist Played His Final Game as a Ranger?

    Not plenty. Some. It's rare. Far more don't than do.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    Not plenty. Some. It's rare. Far more don't than do.


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    It's too early for semantics.

    I'm sure Winnipeg and Boston are quite happy that they stuck with those players.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    It's funny to me because people just keep waiting for Strome to fail and he just keeps ... Not failing.

    Plenty of players in the league are late bloomers. We've covered it alot. Look at Marchand, Wheeler, etc.
    I don't think there's anything wrong with recognizing that - Strome could very well be a late bloomer and could be a great player for the next 3-5 years. Strome has been successful with the Rangers - whether with Panarin or without. Keep in mind that for Feb/Mar/Apr of 2019, he was a .69 PPG player (22 points in 32 games). It's not all Panarin; it's partly that without a 2c in front of him, he's gotten the ice time and earned the space to do his thing for the first time since he was an Islander.

    The problem is that the cap is flat and will be flat for at least 2 years. If I'm Strome, I either sign a "prove it and get me to UFA" deal, a "get me to a cap increase year" deal (i.e. 2y11m or something), or a "commit to me" deal (think 5x26 or so). I do not think the Rangers are going to be terribly interested in that first deal, meaning we're probably thinking about either a "bridge me" or a "prove it" sort of thing. The impact on either of those two deals on our future is significant - we're swimming in cap space, but not really in players for next year onward - doubly so if you think you'll have a Chytil, an Andersson, a Henriksson, or even a Cirelli/Point pushing at that 2c (or even 1c) spot.

    Further, Strome's value on the trade market will almost never be higher. Coming off a monster season, plays decent center, can play up or down the lineup - that's a good player. His offer sheet value is almost assuredly in the 1st and 3rd space, he is arb eligible and therefore somewhat cost controlled if traded, and he can structure his contract to walk next year (which might be nice for a team pushing for the cup, but against the cap).

    He's by far the hardest decision the Rangers have to make this year.
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  10. #310
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    I don't think there's anything wrong with recognizing that - Strome could very well be a late bloomer and could be a great player for the next 3-5 years. Strome has been successful with the Rangers - whether with Panarin or without. Keep in mind that for Feb/Mar/Apr of 2019, he was a .69 PPG player (22 points in 32 games). It's not all Panarin; it's partly that without a 2c in front of him, he's gotten the ice time and earned the space to do his thing for the first time since he was an Islander.

    The problem is that the cap is flat and will be flat for at least 2 years. If I'm Strome, I either sign a "prove it and get me to UFA" deal, a "get me to a cap increase year" deal (i.e. 2y11m or something), or a "commit to me" deal (think 5x26 or so). I do not think the Rangers are going to be terribly interested in that first deal, meaning we're probably thinking about either a "bridge me" or a "prove it" sort of thing. The impact on either of those two deals on our future is significant - we're swimming in cap space, but not really in players for next year onward - doubly so if you think you'll have a Chytil, an Andersson, a Henriksson, or even a Cirelli/Point pushing at that 2c (or even 1c) spot.

    Further, Strome's value on the trade market will almost never be higher. Coming off a monster season, plays decent center, can play up or down the lineup - that's a good player. His offer sheet value is almost assuredly in the 1st and 3rd space, he is arb eligible and therefore somewhat cost controlled if traded, and he can structure his contract to walk next year (which might be nice for a team pushing for the cup, but against the cap).

    He's by far the hardest decision the Rangers have to make this year.
    I don't disagree with a lot of this. I don't think Chytil is a center (they should just move him to RW already) and Henriksson's stock is falling a little bit into more of a top 3C, not quite a 2C (but if you're with Panarin...who knows).

    I would have went so far as 4x$5 or 5x$4 years on Strome. Flat cap changes alot of that, though.

    What I'll say is that a lot of folks act like 2C is a problem that needs to be addressed today, or at this draft, or some point this year and I just don't see that as the case unless the Rangers are truly cutting bait on Strome. But if you cut bait on Strome, you better have a good option at 2C because Howden or Chytil ain't it.

    I also don't care if they trade Strome.

  11. #311
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    I don't disagree with a lot of this. I don't think Chytil is a center (they should just move him to RW already) and Henriksson's stock is falling a little bit into more of a top 3C, not quite a 2C (but if you're with Panarin...who knows).

    I would have went so far as 4x$5 or 5x$4 years on Strome. Flat cap changes alot of that, though.

    What I'll say is that a lot of folks act like 2C is a problem that needs to be addressed today, or at this draft, or some point this year and I just don't see that as the case unless the Rangers are truly cutting bait on Strome. But if you cut bait on Strome, you better have a good option at 2C because Howden or Chytil ain't it.

    I also don't care if they trade Strome.
    The key isn't just this, but to limit the length you go on Strome for exactly this reason. Basically, unless they can get someone they feel is a clear upgrade now, the best course of action is to give Strome a one-year deal and see what shakes out. Worry about re-signing him next Summer as a UFA or let him go to market (almost certainly the latter).
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    It's too early for semantics.

    I'm sure Winnipeg and Boston are quite happy that they stuck with those players.
    It's not semantics. It's a critical context. If I said "there are plenty of options at 2C," you'd brisk at it because it's not true. There is probably a handful, and of that handful, one or two seem even viable.

    There are very few players who bloom late to the effect of point-per-game rates, or anywhere close to it, like Strome did last year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    What if hs regresses to the 35 pt player he has been throughout his career? 3 yrs locks him into some money and he'll be young enough for another nice contract after. I'm even better with 1 or 2 years, but I think he'll want a little bit of term in case he regresses. I don't see the Rangers throwing much more money, if any more, at him.
    But he hasn’t. Of course that’s an issue for anyone, but he’s previously a 50 point player and a talented former first round pick. I’m sure the man himself is going to bet on his production being a case of coming into his own rather than some stroke of luck.

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    Of course he hasn't. He's coming off a career year. The math has been posted by me here before. He's a career 0.52 P/GP player (42 points). This is including his 0.84 P/GP breakout season. Without it, he's a 0.47 P/GP player (39 points).

    Also, "he's previously been a 50-point player," ignores more critical context — that that 50 point season was SIX YEARS AGO.

    It is entirely justifiable to balk at the idea of a long-term deal that presumes he's now a 70-point player rather than he became one by riding shotgun to a league MVP candidate. It's entirely appropriate to want a larger sample size before committing to him.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sod16 View Post
    Strome is the highest paid among players in the top 50 who have a long history of mediocrity before a season with the best playmaker in the league. I think opposing GMs would be plenty leery of giving him a big long term contract as a UFA. He had a good season last year, but, for what it's worth, no one on this board, with its diverse opinions, seems to think of him as a good long term option or commitment for NYR.
    He’s actually not the highest paid player coming off one good season. And people constantly forget his prior 50 point season as a 21 year old.

    And you guys are missing the point. This isn’t what other GMs are willing to do. No one knows that right now. He can’t test the waters yet. The point is, why does he want to sell himself short when he can do a one year deal and wait until he gets leverage more than arb rights. If he goes to arbitration he’s getting 5m on a one year deal at least. Then he goes into his ufa as a 5m free agent. Even if he ends up with a lesser year, say around 55 points for a full season, he’s still a 5m player. He’s grossly underpaid at 3m.

    If he decided on a 3 year deal at 5m then we should all go out and buy him something nice lol because then he becomes one of the best bargains in the league as a 65-75 point 2nd line center.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    Of course he hasn't. He's coming off a career year. The math has been posted by me here before. He's a career 0.52 P/GP player (42 points). This is including his 0.84 P/GP breakout season. Without it, he's a 0.47 P/GP player (39 points).

    Also, "he's previously been a 50-point player," ignores more critical context — that that 50 point season was SIX YEARS AGO.

    It is entirely justifiable to balk at the idea of a long-term deal that presumes he's now a 70-point player rather than he became one by riding shotgun to a league MVP candidate. It's entirely appropriate to want a larger sample size before committing to him.
    Yeah but I think you’re missing my point. I understand why a gm would balk at a long term deal. I also think Strome would balk at one too not at market price. Stroke himself would prefer repeating 19/20 season and roll right into ufa. If he signs anything team friendly, it’s for one year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Keirik View Post
    He’s actually not the highest paid player coming off one good season. And people constantly forget his prior 50 point season as a 21 year old.

    And you guys are missing the point. This isn’t what other GMs are willing to do. No one knows that right now. He can’t test the waters yet. The point is, why does he want to sell himself short when he can do a one year deal and wait until he gets leverage more than arb rights. If he goes to arbitration he’s getting 5m on a one year deal at least. Then he goes into his ufa as a 5m free agent. Even if he ends up with a lesser year, say around 55 points for a full season, he’s still a 5m player. He’s grossly underpaid at 3m.

    If he decided on a 3 year deal at 5m then we should all go out and buy him something nice lol because then he becomes one of the best bargains in the league as a 65-75 point 2nd line center.
    Yes, assuming he remains a 65-75 point player. If he regresses to his NHL mean, he becomes an overpaid third-line center making $5 million-plus to give you 40 points.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    Yes, assuming he remains a 65-75 point player. If he regresses to his NHL mean, he becomes an overpaid third-line center making $5 million-plus to give you 40 points.
    And he would still be cheaper by 2m to the likes of Hayes, RyJo, Benn, Krejci, et al. If only our worst contract was 5m lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by Keirik View Post
    And he would still be cheaper by 2m to the likes of Hayes, RyJo, Benn, Krejci, et al. If only our worst contract was 5m lol
    Brady Skjei. I'd rather pay extra in free agency than give a guy a deal he hasn't earned in the hopes he will.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    Brady Skjei. I'd rather pay extra in free agency than give a guy a deal he hasn't earned in the hopes he will.
    Not disagreeing at all. Regardless, I don’t see Strome trying to help us out one year away from ufa anyway.

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