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Why Rangers Center Mika Zibanejad Is Enduring a Dramatic 5-on-5 Scoring Dip


Pete

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Sometimes when a player isn’t scoring as much as expected, it’s simply a product of bad luck. Zibanejad is shooting 6.94 percent at five-on-five this season, and a regression closer to average (10.5 percent) should lead to more production. But that alone likely isn’t enough to spark a dramatic scoring swing. 

 

Zibanejad’s shot volume and quality likely have something to do with that. The center is attempting shots at a career-low rate of 10.7 per 60 minutes. It isn’t the most stark decrease from years past, but it hurts the Rangers that a lower clip is even reaching the net. About 56 percent of Zibanejad’s attempts (down three percent from last year) are going on goal. That difference comes from how many of his shots are getting blocked, which likely stems from where he is shooting the puck from.

 

Compared to recent seasons, Zibanejad’s average shot distance has increased this year. While he is still clustering shots to the quality areas of the ice, it is not as pronounced as in the past. Generating scoring chances would help balance out some of those outside shots he has taken this season, as the shot maps below show.

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Through 55 games this season, there just seem to be elements missing from Zibanejad’s usual offensive attack. Despite not carrying the puck in as often this season, he is still creating offense in transition at a high rate. But he isn’t generating much off the cycle or forecheck, and neither is his mainstay winger Chris Kreider. Those rush opportunities, too often, are just one-and-done chances. Some of that has to do with the fact that Zibanejad is pressuring the puck less to maintain possession and extend zone time.

 

And even when the Rangers do have the zone time, Zibanejad is deferring to his linemates more often instead of taking the opportunity to shoot himself. 

 

That’s a key reason why he has earned a career-high rate of primary assists at five-on-five. Zibanejad being a dual-threat does add a dimension to the line. Between him and Kreider, the Rangers have more than one scoring threat who can challenge defenders.

 

https://theathletic.com/5290958/2024/02/22/rangers-mika-zibanejad-stats-dip/

 

All stuff that I've has been said, good food for thought.

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7 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

He's not been a good line driver. They need him to be one and they pay him to be one.

 

Been saying this for at least 2 months now.

 

This.

 

"Zibanejad is deferring to his linemates more often instead of taking the opportunity to shoot himself. "

 

This screams "burden shifting," because it's basically trying to blame Kreider (or whoever is on the other wing) for the line not doing well. Kreider is also a poor 5v5 player, but he's the winger. It's not his job to drive his line. It's Zibanejad's, so if his wingers aren't doing the heavy lifting, guess who's job it is to pick up the slack and get it corrected?

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Yeah.

 

He has not been good at 5v5 this season.

 

Its more anomaly than anything else though, IMO.


But he still represents as one of the better C’s in the league.

 

Is he in the true, super-elite class of C’s in the league.

No.

 

Is he still very much a number 1 C?

Yes.

 

And do I think he has it in him to play up there when the time is right?

Yes.

 

It’s an odd year for him in some ways. But you can’t be overall too unhappy with his play cause they’re still getting it done right now. 
 

I’ll also say of  guys in front of him on those lists, he’s still actually more complete than many of them. 
 

McDavid and MacKinnon are not impactful player’s defensively. Nor is Eichel or Hughes.

Barkov and Matthews are the 2 most complete C’s in the league.

Followed by Point, Crosby, Draisaitl and Pettersson. 
 

Of the 10 guys I’ve just mentioned, Zib is better defensively than at least 5 of them.


All 10 of those guys are probably the better player ultimately, but it isn’t by a huge margin.

A good number of those guys don’t even kill penalties consistently.

And almost all of those guys also play regularly with their team’s best winger.


Zib kills penalties and does so well.

And he doesn’t even sniff Panarin at ES. 

 

Look at other top C’s with their teams top W at ES.

Even if it’s not a full-time partnership, which in many cases it is, those two play A LOT together at ES.


Mackinnon plays with Rantanen. Full-time.

Matthews plays with Marner. Full-time.

Barkov plays with Tkachuk. A lot.

Hughes plays with Bratt. A lot. 

Point plays with Kucherov. A lot. 

McDavid and Draisaitl play together a lot at ES.

Pettersson plays a ton with both Miller and Boeser.

 

And obviously Zib does play with CK.

And CK is great.

But he certainly isn’t Panarin.

Or… Marner, Tkachuk, Rantanen, Bratt, Kucherov, or Draisaitl. 
 

It hurts Mika some.

 

I’d honestly be interested to see the following for 10 games. Though I doubt they’d do it.

 

Panarin-Zib-LaFreniere 

CK-Trochek-Kakko

Cuylle-Brodz-Vesey

Goodrow stays at C on 4th line.

 

Go get two high quality 4th line players, one of whom is a C.

And use Othmann too.

Rotate those 13. 
 

On Zib… he isn’t shooting enough. 
He just needs to do so more.

 

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28 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

This.

 

"Zibanejad is deferring to his linemates more often instead of taking the opportunity to shoot himself. "

 

This screams "burden shifting," because it's basically trying to blame Kreider (or whoever is on the other wing) for the line not doing well. Kreider is also a poor 5v5 player, but he's the winger. It's not his job to drive his line. It's Zibanejad's, so if his wingers aren't doing the heavy lifting, guess who's job it is to pick up the slack and get it corrected?

Gotta read the entire article. I know you don't like Zib, hence the "burden-shifting" comment. I don't like Shayna, but she's pretty direct about Zibenejad's role in his lack of production. He's not shooting enough, and when he does, it's from too far out. He's also "earned a career-high rate of primary assists at five-on-five" so let's chill with the "he's not a line driver" talk. He's exactly that. He's driving his line, he's just not shooting on the chances that he creates, he's passing.

 

The answer is clear: shoot more from prime scoring areas, sop passing to Kreider. Primary assists don't just come from passes, they come from rebounds.

She also goes into how much work Zib has to do to get the team out of it's own zone because Fox is the only D who's doing a good job of it this season. There's a part about why Kakko on that line was so successful from a metrics perspective, he lightens that load on Mika. It just never manifested in boxcar stats at the other end.

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2 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

Yeah.

 

He has not been good at 5v5 this season.

 

Its more anomaly than anything else though, IMO.


But he still represents as one of the better C’s in the league.

 

Is he in the true, super-elite class of C’s in the league.

No.

 

Is he still very much a number 1 C?

Yes.

 

And do I think he has it in him to play up there when the time is right?

Yes.

 

It’s an odd year for him in some ways. But you can’t be overall too unhappy with his play cause they’re still getting it done right now. 
 

I’ll also say of  guys in front of him on those lists, he’s still actually more complete than many of them. 
 

McDavid and MacKinnon are not impactful player’s defensively. Nor is Eichel or Hughes.

Barkov and Matthews are the 2 most complete C’s in the league.

Followed by Point, Crosby, Draisaitl and Pettersson. 
 

Of the 10 guys I’ve just mentioned, Zib is better defensively than at least 5 of them.


All 10 of those guys are probably the better player ultimately, but it isn’t by a huge margin.

A good number of those guys don’t even kill penalties consistently.

And almost all of those guys also play regularly with their team’s best winger.


Zib kills penalties and does so well.

And he doesn’t even sniff Panarin at ES. 

 

Look at other top C’s with their teams top W at ES.

Even if it’s not a full-time partnership, which in many cases it is, those two play A LOT together at ES.


Mackinnon plays with Rantanen. Full-time.

Matthews plays with Marner. Full-time.

Barkov plays with Tkachuk. A lot.

Hughes plays with Bratt. A lot. 

Point plays with Kucherov. A lot. 

McDavid and Draisaitl play together a lot at ES.

Pettersson plays a ton with both Miller and Boeser.

 

And obviously Zib does play with CK.

And CK is great.

But he certainly isn’t Panarin.

Or… Marner, Tkachuk, Rantanen, Bratt, Kucherov, or Draisaitl. 
 

It hurts Mika some.

 

I’d honestly be interested to see the following for 10 games. Though I doubt they’d do it.

 

Panarin-Zib-LaFreniere 

CK-Trochek-Kakko

Cuylle-Brodz-Vesey

Goodrow stays at C on 4th line.

 

Go get two high quality 4th line players, one of whom is a C.

And use Othmann too.

Rotate those 13. 
 

On Zib… he isn’t shooting enough. 
He just needs to do so more.

 

He has been good at 5v5, I think that's the point. He is driving offense, he's just not shooting. And he gets no help from Kreider.

He needs to shoot more. And if he doesn't? Well, he's "just" a P/G center. 🤪

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39 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

This.

 

"Zibanejad is deferring to his linemates more often instead of taking the opportunity to shoot himself. "

 

This screams "burden shifting," because it's basically trying to blame Kreider (or whoever is on the other wing) for the line not doing well. Kreider is also a poor 5v5 player, but he's the winger. It's not his job to drive his line. It's Zibanejad's, so if his wingers aren't doing the heavy lifting, guess who's job it is to pick up the slack and get it corrected?

I think he loves CK and sees him as the scorer on the line, because he’s had 50 in a season.

And let’s face it…. Since 21-22:

CK has close to 120 goals in his last 220 regular season games.

Plus he’s basically a point per game with 16 goals in 27 playoff games over that same span.

243 games, 132 goals, 77 assists, 209 points 

That’s .54 goals per game.

.86 points per game.

Great production.

Even if a big portion comes on the PP, great production. 


Long story short… I can’t blame him for deferring to a teammate who has that level of success. He just does so too often.

 

He is passing up premium scoring opportunities. 

 

The other night vs Dallas, he had one from the slot, top of circle or closer, and he dished to CK.

 

Shoot!

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1 hour ago, Pete said:

He has been good at 5v5, I think that's the point. He is driving offense, he's just not shooting. And he gets no help from Kreider.

He needs to shoot more. And if he doesn't? Well, he's "just" a P/G center. 🤪

Well that’s the thing though.

It directly impacts his 5v5 scoring and production.

 

When he doesn’t shoot enough, and passes up significant opportunities to score with at least a fair amount of regularity, guess what…?

 

ES scoring drops.

When that occurs with your top C, that’s not only noticeable but it’s a big deal. 


 

It’s not all on him.

Hes shooting at a lower rate be connecting at a lower clip.

Part of that is just anomaly. Which will happen.

CK still glides too much and doesn’t use his speed and his body and size enough.


 

But it does need to improve.

 

Really they need a RW that’s going to force the issue more, in a few ways. Or at least in some of them.

Skate more

Get CK to skate and engage physically more

Get Mika to shoot more

All go to net more.

 

Some combination thereof would be fine. 

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I would hesitate to call Zibanejad or Kreider poor or not good at 5v5. As a pairing they are sub-50 xGF (49) this year for the first time in a few seasons, which meets the eye test that they haven't looked as good as they have in the past and they aren't controlling play as effectively. However, their actual GF% (60) is significantly higher than their xGF, and it's a multi-year trend for them to significantly outperform their xGF. It's hard to label them not good at 5v5 when they are that firmly in the black. Combined with what they do at 4v4 and 3v3, that's why they lead the team in +/-. Kreider +18 and Zib +15. As a pairing they are +11 at 5v5. The next closest forward in +/- is Will Cuylle at +6. I know, I know, "plus/minus" is trash. Standalone yes, but it has value and requires context to mean something.

 

With all of that said, the data indicates Kreider has contributed more positively than Zibanejad, and that it's a dip in Zibanejad's play that has reduced their ability to tilt the ice in their favor. That's why he has been the focus of my criticism this year. He's supposed to be the guy. Kreider isn't. It's a compliment to Zibanejad to have those expectations for him. You lose all sorts of things when the ice isn't tilted the right way, especially in the playoffs with momentum swings and your goalie is feeling wave after wave no matter what line is out there. The pairing plays well in the black, and that's a good thing, but they could be better and that's what they should strive for. That line with a legitimate RW playmaker could be pretty special.

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2 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

I would hesitate to call Zibanejad or Kreider poor or not good at 5v5. As a pairing they are sub-50 xGF (49) this year for the first time in a few seasons, which meets the eye test that they haven't looked as good as they have in the past and they aren't controlling play as effectively. However, their actual GF% (60) is significantly higher than their xGF, and it's a multi-year trend for them to significantly outperform their xGF. It's hard to label them not good at 5v5 when they are that firmly in the black. Combined with what they do at 4v4 and 3v3, that's why they lead the team in +/-. Kreider +18 and Zib +15. As a pairing they are +11 at 5v5. The next closest forward in +/- is Will Cuylle at +6. I know, I know, "plus/minus" is trash. Standalone yes, but it has value and requires context to mean something.

 

With all of that said, the data indicates Kreider has contributed more positively than Zibanejad, and that it's a dip in Zibanejad's play that has reduced their ability to tilt the ice in their favor. That's why he has been the focus of my criticism this year. He's supposed to be the guy. Kreider isn't. It's a compliment to Zibanejad to have those expectations for him. You lose all sorts of things when the ice isn't tilted the right way, especially in the playoffs with momentum swings and your goalie is feeling wave after wave no matter what line is out there. The pairing plays well in the black, and that's a good thing, but they could be better and that's what they should strive for. That line with a legitimate RW playmaker could be pretty special.

I think they’re overall actually good to very good at 5v5. 
As you said, they consistently play in the black, plus hockey at 5v5, and with generally favorable possession numbers.

I just think they are slightly deficient in some ways.

 

Not quite enough shots.

Kreider doesn’t use his speed enough.

They both could be more engaged physically. CK more so. 
 

A RW, with a shoot first mentality, with either speed or size, would be ideal.

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30 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

I think they’re overall actually good to very good at 5v5. 
As you said, they consistently play in the black, plus hockey at 5v5, and with generally favorable possession numbers.

I just think they are slightly deficient in some ways.

 

Not quite enough shots.

Kreider doesn’t use his speed enough.

They both could be more engaged physically. CK more so. 
 

A RW, with a shoot first mentality, with either speed or size, would be ideal.

These are the things we see when we watch games, that the spreadsheets don't show us. There are players who are analytics darlings who leave much to be desired. There are players who don't have as sexy analytics as others but we see them being effective on the ice.

 

That's why we can't use analytics, especially one kind (5v5, or xGF, etc) in a vacuum, they are part of a whole story.

 

All you need to do is watch about 5 Ranger games and you'll see that Zib is passing up most of his prime chances trying to feed Kreider. It's supported by Zib tracking a career high in primary assists, and Kreider maintaining his production despite not carrying the load on the ice that Zib is.

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8 minutes ago, Pete said:

These are the things we see when we watch games, that the spreadsheets don't show us. There are players who are analytics darlings who leave much to be desired. There are players who don't have as sexy analytics as others but we see them being effective on the ice.

 

That's why we can't use analytics, especially one kind (5v5, or xGF, etc) in a vacuum, they are part of a whole story.

 

All you need to do is watch about 5 Ranger games and you'll see that Zib is passing up most of his prime chances trying to feed Kreider. It's supported by Zib tracking a career high in primary assists, and Kreider maintaining his production despite not carrying the load on the ice that Zib is.

 

Zib needs to stop passing up prime chances.  His numbers against the better teams in the league at 5v5 are really mediocre and have been dating back to last season - not to mention the wipeout in the playoffs against the Devils last season.

 

If over-passing to Kreider was leading to a lot of 5v5 goals it would be acceptable but mostly he's passing up his best opportunities to give Kreider worse opportunities.

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9 minutes ago, Pete said:

These are the things we see when we watch games, that the spreadsheets don't show us. There are players who are analytics darlings who leave much to be desired. There are players who don't have as sexy analytics as others but we see them being effective on the ice.

 

That's why we can't use analytics, especially one kind (5v5, or xGF, etc) in a vacuum, they are part of a whole story.

 

All you need to do is watch about 5 Ranger games and you'll see that Zib is passing up most of his prime chances trying to feed Kreider. It's supported by Zib tracking a career high in primary assists, and Kreider maintaining his production despite not carrying the load on the ice that Zib is.

 

This is pretty much dead on the money!

 

But if you want some really advanced "Ozzy" stats...here you go...  LOL

 

How many times Mika has passed up and opprtunity to shoot when he's in a High Danger area relates directly to how many TV remotes have gone flying across my living room in 2023-2024.

 

Fucking guy passes up too many good chances to shoot from great areas on the ice...not "good"....GREAT!  I love Mika to death, but for the love of Jesus, all that's Holy and my blood pressure...Shoot the damn thing, Mika!!! 

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3 minutes ago, Pete said:

These are the things we see when we watch games, that the spreadsheets don't show us. There are players who are analytics darlings who leave much to be desired. There are players who don't have as sexy analytics as others but we see them being effective on the ice.

 

That's why we can't use analytics, especially one kind (5v5, or xGF, etc) in a vacuum, they are part of a whole story.

 

All you need to do is watch about 5 Ranger games and you'll see that Zib is passing up most of his prime chances trying to feed Kreider. It's supported by Zib tracking a career high in primary assists, and Kreider maintaining his production despite not carrying the load on the ice that Zib is.

On analytics… I 100% agree.

 

And that actually applies to all sports.

 

I can’t speak for anyone else, but I view analytics, advanced stats, new metrics, as follows:

 

They fill in parts of the picture that traditional/standard stats didn’t fully paint.

 

But they aren’t, nor should they be treated as the silver bullet or key to anything. Cause they are not that.

 

They have to work in conjunction with another set of stats, plus the eye test, plus context and situational play and interpretation.

 

The problem is that the analytics people, most of whom are very intelligent and typically well-educated, would have you believe that these stats are the most important thing.

 

They are not.

And when people press them, they tend to miss or ignore the basis for those “advanced” stats.

 

People talk up OBP and downplay batting average in baseball all the time, totally ignoring the statistical fact that the better part of a player’s OBP is composed of batting average. 
 

In hockey… specific matchups abd deployment is hugely impactful statistically for players. There are countless examples.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

Zib needs to stop passing up prime chances.  His numbers against the better teams in the league at 5v5 are really mediocre and have been dating back to last season - not to mention the wipeout in the playoffs against the Devils last season.

 

If over-passing to Kreider was leading to a lot of 5v5 goals it would be acceptable but mostly he's passing up his best opportunities to give Kreider worse opportunities.


Right, and it’s not Kreider’s fault that Zibanejad is a bit in his own head out there. It’s Zibanejad’s problem, and his decision making with the puck hasn’t been as good. The issue is there is way too much lazy analysis going on that is trying to shift the focus on expecting Kreider to be a $9M player since Zibanejad isn’t filling those shoes. Except that’s unrealistic to expect from Kreider, or he’d be getting paid $9M.

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35 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

On analytics… I 100% agree.

 

And that actually applies to all sports.

 

I can’t speak for anyone else, but I view analytics, advanced stats, new metrics, as follows:

 

They fill in parts of the picture that traditional/standard stats didn’t fully paint.

 

But they aren’t, nor should they be treated as the silver bullet or key to anything. Cause they are not that.

 

They have to work in conjunction with another set of stats, plus the eye test, plus context and situational play and interpretation.

 

The problem is that the analytics people, most of whom are very intelligent and typically well-educated, would have you believe that these stats are the most important thing.

 

They are not.

And when people press them, they tend to miss or ignore the basis for those “advanced” stats.

 

People talk up OBP and downplay batting average in baseball all the time, totally ignoring the statistical fact that the better part of a player’s OBP is composed of batting average. 
 

In hockey… specific matchups abd deployment is hugely impactful statistically for players. There are countless examples.

 

 


All very true. Hockey is a unique sport though, because the same number of players aren’t on the playing surface at all times like football, baseball, and basketball. Situational stats based on strength matter. Total stats can and should be broken down based on how many players are on the ice.

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18 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:


Right, and it’s not Kreider’s fault that Zibanejad is a bit in his own head out there. It’s Zibanejad’s problem, and his decision making with the puck hasn’t been as good. The issue is there is way too much lazy analysis going on that is trying to shift the focus on expecting Kreider to be a $9M player since Zibanejad isn’t filling those shoes. Except that’s unrealistic to expect from Kreider, or he’d be getting paid $9M.

Nah, it's not lazy analysis. It's just the truth. His pay isn't relevant. He was a 50G scorer as a $6M player. Asking him to do a little more than just stand in front, asking him to use his legs, keep play alive, cycle, forecheck, has nothing to do with being a $9M player, that's just being an effective hockey player.

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44 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:


All very true. Hockey is a unique sport though, because the same number of players aren’t on the playing surface at all times like football, baseball, and basketball. Situational stats based on strength matter. Total stats can and should be broken down based on how many players are on the ice.

Yes. That is significantly important.

 

And Its harder to track. And I think overall, as said, the analytics people are pretty good at doing what is in practical terms, a job with some difficult nuances. 

 

But that difficulty makes the analytics less reliable in my opinion.


Despite it being so heavily focused on numbers, it’s not without imprecision and subjectivity.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

Yes. That is significantly important.

 

And Its harder to track. And I think overall, as said, the analytics people are pretty good at doing what is in practical terms, a job with some difficult nuances. 

 

But that difficulty makes the analytics less reliable in my opinion.


Despite it being so heavily focused on numbers, it’s not without imprecision and subjectivity.

 

 

 

Well, I think the term analytics gets conflated to include a lot of things. "5v5" as a whole is not analytics. Taking real, tangible boxcar stats and breaking them down into what strength they were attained isn't analytics. For example, earlier I mentioned Kreider and Zibanejad's 5v5 goal differential as a pairing. There's no fancy math. There's no subjectivity. Expected goals, corsi, high danger chances, etc., are the ones that are based off of some subjectivity.

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2 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Well, I think the term analytics gets conflated to include a lot of things. "5v5" as a whole is not analytics. Taking real, tangible boxcar stats and breaking them down into what strength they were attained isn't analytics. For example, earlier I mentioned Kreider and Zibanejad's 5v5 goal differential as a pairing. There's no fancy math. There's no subjectivity. Expected goals, corsi, high danger chances, etc., are the ones that are based off of some subjectivity.

That’s what I’m essentially getting at, though I was probably looking more from another side of it, just in terms of there being more difficulty in that in hockey in general. 

 

We are thinking on similar lines though about the rest.

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15 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Well, I think the term analytics gets conflated to include a lot of things. "5v5" as a whole is not analytics. Taking real, tangible boxcar stats and breaking them down into what strength they were attained isn't analytics. For example, earlier I mentioned Kreider and Zibanejad's 5v5 goal differential as a pairing. There's no fancy math. There's no subjectivity. Expected goals, corsi, high danger chances, etc., are the ones that are based off of some subjectivity.

Whenever you use one specific data point to paint an entire picture of a player, You're doing the player a disservice. 

 

If you're only looking at 5v5, if you're only looking at expected goals, then you're curating data to support a narrative. 

 

Not really sure how you can call anyone else's analysis lazy when you're doing things like that. 

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6 hours ago, Pete said:

Gotta read the entire article. I know you don't like Zib, hence the "burden-shifting" comment. I don't like Shayna, but she's pretty direct about Zibenejad's role in his lack of production. He's not shooting enough, and when he does, it's from too far out. He's also "earned a career-high rate of primary assists at five-on-five" so let's chill with the "he's not a line driver" talk. He's exactly that. He's driving his line, he's just not shooting on the chances that he creates, he's passing.

 

The answer is clear: shoot more from prime scoring areas, sop passing to Kreider. Primary assists don't just come from passes, they come from rebounds.

She also goes into how much work Zib has to do to get the team out of it's own zone because Fox is the only D who's doing a good job of it this season. There's a part about why Kakko on that line was so successful from a metrics perspective, he lightens that load on Mika. It just never manifested in boxcar stats at the other end.

Agree here. His shots are few and far between and when he takes a shot, it's practically from 2 feet off the boards. His PP  off wing  one timer used to be taken from around the faceoff dot. Now he's out by the edge of the circle. 

 

He's been very perimeter and very passive. There was a tiny stretch this season where he was getting very creative and doing a lot more in close by the net. Some fancy dangles, but in the hard areas. That has disappeared. He's strictly a pass first guy and he's not getting to the middle of the ice. 

 

Maybe it's an injury thing, or just Mika being Mika. 

 

No matter. He needs to snap out of it. Be harder on the puck. Take it to the hole more. Be selfish.  

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2 hours ago, Pete said:

Whenever you use one specific data point to paint an entire picture of a player, You're doing the player a disservice. 

 

If you're only looking at 5v5, if you're only looking at expected goals, then you're curating data to support a narrative. 

 

Not really sure how you can call anyone else's analysis lazy when you're doing things like that. 


5v5 isn’t a single datapoint. I thought you knew that

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