The Athletic New York Rangers 2022-23 Season Preview

[Flynn]

My guy Dom Lusczyzischzhyn is back!!!!!!

 

https://theathletic.com/3634149/2022/09/28/rangers-2022-23-season-preview/

 

Long story short- Analytics nerds don't like the Rangers. The Athletic has the squad pegged at #16 in the league. And I'll be fair at least, they started out acknowledging the relative punitive nature of their ranking: 

 

Quote

Of all the projections and placements, this one probably feels the most unfair.

The New York Rangers won 52 games, finished seventh with 110 points and marched all the way to the conference finals. They beat a strong Penguins team, a strong Hurricanes team and gave the dynastic Lightning a scare in Round 3. With a talented group of young studs ready to breakout to go with one of the league’s strongest cores, the Rangers look like a team that’s next up — one that should contend for a while.

 BUT....

Quote

On the surface that’s all true. But beneath the surface there are cracks, fissures that were apparent for much of last season.

For the majority of the 2021-22 season the Rangers looked like a deeply flawed team relying on historic goaltending to win games. While that was papered over at the deadline, the Rangers are back to square one going into the 2022-23 season. They have an elite core and a very weak supporting cast.

 

 

I don't know why these style reviews irritate me, but they do. Models that take a 3 or 4 year lookback to inform a predictive foundation are fine... but these same models don't allow for a growth component.  So for a team that does have a substantial segment of youth.. they are going to be shit in these models until they aren't. You are better to have long proven mediocrity in these models rather than untapped or growing performance. 

 

To save you all a lot of reading.. Panarin didn't play well, Zib's underlying numbers slumped. The Bottom 6 is one of the worst in the NHL. The Kid Line needs to grow up. And can Shesty do it again? That's basically your 22-23 Rangers. 

 

If Dom Luszyzyzyzschyn didn't have such a smarmy punchable face these wouldn't irritate me so much. Thankfully games are played on the ice and not via nerd.com modeling.  

[Ozzy]

Gonna be fun making this guy eat his words!  No worries Flynner, there's always going to be a bitter Isles fan out there!  LOL

[Albatrosss]

Does Dom visit message boards? If no, then he knows shit. He’s no more educated about hockey than any one of us here. 

[siddious]

While self admittedly it paints half a picture it does kind of sum up what needs to happen in order for the rangers to have success: the kids need to step it up. Krav is a rookie I guess so some leeway there but kakko laf miller Schneider and I’ll even throw jones in there all need to be serious contributors to the rangers success this year. 

[LindG1000]

I mean....he isn't really wrong here.

 

His lineup may be a bit different than what we expect but he's just saying the numbers back up the eye test here.

[Ozzy]

4 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

I mean....he isn't really wrong here.

 

His lineup may be a bit different than what we expect but he's just saying the numbers back up the eye test here.

 

We did give up a Christmas list of high danger scoring chances last year, I agree G Man.  By the numbers he's right, but I'm thinking some of these guys are going to learn from those "mistakes" from last season.

 

The proof is in the pudding, I know....but if I was a betting man....And I AM!!  I'm taking this team to at least reach the ECF again.

[Pete]

We've been saying this all summer. 

 

It's very likely that this team is a good deal worse than it was last year. Even if all the kids mature and take the next step and produce a little bit more, the team defense is God awful and Igor just can't be counted on to have another historic year.

 

If he does, it's a bonus. If that's your plan to leave everything up to Igor, it's not going to end well. 

[Morphinity 2.0]

Can anyone who is in the "this guy doesn't know shit" camp actually refute anything he's saying?

 

This team was hot garbage at 5v5 last year and relied on a strong PP and goalie to win games. They can do that again, but those are two highly variable things. At their core, they're a team with a lot of question marks and some flaws.

[Flynn]

9 minutes ago, Nashley Tisdale said:

Can anyone who is in the "this guy doesn't know shit" camp actually refute anything he's saying?

 

I think the 2021-22 season provides plenty of evidence.. His preseason rankings weren't promising.. but despite winning games at an impressive clip all year, his in season critiques were always laden with huge caveats, indicating those trends wouldn't work in the playoffs..  The team wildly out performed his expectations.. and the great takeaway was that you can't rely on your goalie to save your ass. To which I ask- why the hell not?  

 

I'll die on the hill that analytics are a key consideration,. but not the end all be all..  Moneyball only worked when the Red Sox had the best players in the game. 

 

I can't lie and say his presentation and delivery don't piss me off more than the content. 

[BrooksBurner]

33 minutes ago, Pete said:

We've been saying this all summer. 

 

It's very likely that this team is a good deal worse than it was last year. Even if all the kids mature and take the next step and produce a little bit more, the team defense is God awful and Igor just can't be counted on to have another historic year.

 

If he does, it's a bonus. If that's your plan to leave everything up to Igor, it's not going to end well. 

Some have been saying it all summer, but not everyone. I don’t buy it, as it’s not all about analytics. They don’t capture the probabilities of young players progressing. Lafreniere and Miller taking another step forward is way more likely than not, for example. Kakko at 21 and Chytil at 23 are way more likely than not to progress, despite previous failures to do so. But Dom is honest about this being a hole in his model:

 

“Can the Rangers youth collective take a collective next step?
…

The model doesn’t think it’ll happen because it can’t predict a breakout.

“

I am curious if he’s made any attempt to improve his model to better predict youth progression. A free tip for him…maybe  evaluate a young player’s splits and see how they progressed throughout the previous year. Lafreniere for example was meh in the first few months and stellar in the last few. While it could be streak-related, with a player of his age, draft pedigree, progression throughout the year, etc., a predictive model should be able to come up with better estimations.

 

Also:
 

Quote

Igor just can't be counted on to have another historic year.

Yes he can. There’s always a chance anyone might not do anything, or be healthy enough to do it, but he’s as good a bet as any to repeat or even best his year last year. He’s done this at every level.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

We've been saying this all summer. 

 

It's very likely that this team is a good deal worse than it was last year. Even if all the kids mature and take the next step and produce a little bit more, the team defense is God awful and Igor just can't be counted on to have another historic year.

 

If he does, it's a bonus. If that's your plan to leave everything up to Igor, it's not going to end well. 

 

29 minutes ago, Nashley Tisdale said:

Can anyone who is in the "this guy doesn't know shit" camp actually refute anything he's saying?

 

This team was hot garbage at 5v5 last year and relied on a strong PP and goalie to win games. They can do that again, but those are two highly variable things. At their core, they're a team with a lot of question marks and some flaws.

 

This and this.

 

You don't need a model to understand what this team is. Garbage 5v5, elite PP, and best goalie in the league. That's it. That's the whole ballgame. They fiddled with the margins because that's the only place they could make change. On paper, they're probably worse. In reality, they'll run out the same game plan again.

 

The most important aspect of the analysis is honestly that the kids need to grow up. Without them, expect the same, or worse.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

People have been saying "this team sucks" since game week one last year. Even getting to game 6 of the conference final haven't changed the crowds opinion. Almost won the cup last season? Neh, you lost Copp and Vatrano and have a good goalie, so you're no better than 16th this season.

 

I guess they enjoyed the crow so much and they want more.

[Phil]

I mean, I'm not saying they suck. I think there's a reason the games are played on ice, and not through a model. I just don't find much to vehemently disagree with regarding this specific assessment of who they might be.

[fletch]

I'm sure someone can point out an exception, but historically I can't think of a consistent Cup contender that relied so heavily on a goaltender to cover up for glaring defensive deficiencies.   Maybe Buffalo with Hasek?  Occasionally you can get a one year run to the Cup like Montreal with Roy, but it's not a traditional strategy. 

 

Eventually we just need to be better in the defensive zone to improve our odds to advance deep in the playoffs.

 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, fletch said:

I'm sure someone can point out an exception, but historically I can't think of a consistent Cup contender that relied so heavily on a goaltender to cover up for glaring defensive deficiencies.   Maybe Buffalo with Hasek?  Occasionally you can get a one year run to the Cup like Montreal with Roy, but it's not a traditional strategy. 

 

Eventually we just need to be better in the defensive zone to improve our odds to advance deep in the playoffs.

 

 

The New York Rangers circa 2008–2020, give or take.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I mean, I'm not saying they suck. I think there's a reason the games are played on ice, and not through a model. I just don't find much to vehemently disagree with regarding this specific assessment of who they might be.

It was more towards Dom and other non Rangers fans who don't watch the games. I didn't even read the article (don't have Athletic subscription) but I just find it extremely funny how anyone can have Rangers as the 16th best team atm. Don't care what his analytics and models says, that's just way too far away from reality.

 

Kreider at 31 is the teams oldest player, that means that our entire squad are either entering or in their prime. None of our players should be over the hill, or even close to it, so how we're supposed to go from top 4 to bottom 15 just by losing Vatrano, Strome, Copp is mind boggling to me. If the 5v5 corsi% for the squad in january 2022 was the worst in the league doesn't really matter much.

 

On D we have Fox (24), Lindgren (24), Trouba (28), Miller (22), Schneider (21), Jones (21). Anyone doubt that this D group will look better than last season? Schneider got a full season under his belt now, Jones over Nemeth is an upgrade even if he's an undersized rookie D, Miller looks to take a huge step and Fox/Lindgren will keep improving, as they've done their entire careers.

 

There's still questions about "team defense" obviously, but there's no doubt that our D group is a lot better than it was just a year ago, even if it's still the same names.

[fletch]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

The New York Rangers circa 2008–2020, give or take.

 

Under Tortorella (at least) we had the shot-blocking philosophy, and a focus on minimizing chances.  Same reason why I didn't list the Devils under Brodeur with their neutral zone trap.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, fletch said:

 

Under Tortorella (at least) we had the shot-blocking philosophy, and a focus on minimizing chances.  Same reason why I didn't list the Devils under Brodeur with their neutral zone trap.

 

OK, so the New York Rangers circa 2008 and 2013-2020.

[Valriera]

I don’t really care because underrating the team is great for one of the youngest teams in the league to feel less pressure, but our analytics are heavily skewed by what was an abysmal First half of last season. We did exactly what we needed to do to stay in the fight there, which was get points when Igor gave us a miracle. The truth is that the second half of the year and the playoffs was way better while the scoring remained hot. The flaws here are coachable flaws - we have everything we need and the team is just a ticking time bomb.

[Albatrosss]

no reason to this Igor's play will drop off unless he gets injured long term.  But if your starting goalie is injured long term, you're fucked anyways. 

[LindG1000]

There is nothing that amuses me quite like seeing a pundit drop information that's exactly what we say every day and then freaking out about it. Never change

 

The model operates off a rolling three years. That means things like Kravtsov's time with Quinn, Reaves' general lack of possession play and measurable positive impact, Hajek's career, Blais' injuries, Kakko's abysmal year 1, and even Miller's up-and-down first year - they're all baked in. 

 

There's not really a good reason for us to assume that any of that stays put - Kravtsov will almost assuredly be better than replacement. Reaves won't play more than 30-40 games. Hajek is probably the 7th or 8th D. Blais...well...maybe he stays healthy enough to be STL playoff Blais. Kakko simply isn't the sieve he was in his first year. Miller might be on a rocketship. And heck, Lafreniere should chip in more too. 

 

It is a bit offputting to see the model predicting what we all would call a worst-case scenario, but even Dom is saying that this feels wrong.

 

 

 

 

[Pete]

55 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

People have been saying "this team sucks" since game week one last year. Even getting to game 6 of the conference final haven't changed the crowds opinion. Almost won the cup last season? Neh, you lost Copp and Vatrano and have a good goalie, so you're no better than 16th this season.

 

I guess they enjoyed the crow so much and they want more.

Nah. No one said they sucked. There's just a difference between understanding why a team is performing, versus just saying "they're good".

 

Historic goaltending

50 G from Kreider 

Top PP

 

Even if the kids balance out the drop off from CK's 50 goals...So what happens when you don't get historic goaltending or PP opportunities?

 

We literally just saw the team get out done in by lack of five on five scoring and atrocious defense. Unless those things are rectified, which remains to be seen, you're looking at a worse result this year than last year simply because historic goaltending performances don't happen every year. That's what makes them historic. 

[Pete]

3 hours ago, rmc51 said:

Some have been saying it all summer, but not everyone. I don’t buy it, as it’s not all about analytics. They don’t capture the probabilities of young players progressing. Lafreniere and Miller taking another step forward is way more likely than not, for example. Kakko at 21 and Chytil at 23 are way more likely than not to progress, despite previous failures to do so. But Dom is honest about this being a hole in his model:

 

“Can the Rangers youth collective take a collective next step?
…

The model doesn’t think it’ll happen because it can’t predict a breakout.

“

I am curious if he’s made any attempt to improve his model to better predict youth progression. A free tip for him…maybe  evaluate a young player’s splits and see how they progressed throughout the previous year. Lafreniere for example was meh in the first few months and stellar in the last few. While it could be streak-related, with a player of his age, draft pedigree, progression throughout the year, etc., a predictive model should be able to come up with better estimations.

 

Also:
 

Yes he can. There’s always a chance anyone might not do anything, or be healthy enough to do it, but he’s as good a bet as any to repeat or even best his year last year. He’s done this at every level.

I didn't say he can't do it, I said he can't be counted on to do it. If you're counting on historic goaltending performances to win, then your team is in big trouble. 

 

The bottom line is unless they improve their five on five play on both sides of the puck, it's not going to matter. Everyone wants to see the kids take a step forward, but if they're not taking a step forward at five on five and if they're not responsible on the defensive side as a team, putting up personal bests and points probably isn't going to help.

 

Although I will say if the kids are putting up personal best in points, it will be at 5 on 5 because none of them are sniffing a power play. 

 

But counting on Igor to keep putting up top five all time statistical seasons is a recipe for failure. 

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

6 minutes ago, Pete said:

Nah. No one said they sucked. There's just a difference between understanding why a team is performing, versus just saying "they're good".

 

Historic goaltending

50 G from Kreider 

Top PP

 

Even if the kids balance out the drop off from CK's 50 goals...So what happens when you don't get historic goaltending or PP opportunities?

 

We literally just saw the team get out done in by lack of five on five scoring and atrocious defense. Unless those things are rectified, which remains to be seen, you're looking at a worse result this year than last year simply because historic goaltending performances don't happen every year. That's what makes them historic. 

Well, there's no good reason for why Igor won't repeat the season he had. Maybe not exactly as good, but he will be good, very good.

 

50G from Kreids won't happen again, but I'm sure we won't see Zib sub-30 goals either. Panarin also had his worst goal scoring season ever last year. The roster is also filled with young guys that should score more than last year.

 

No reason for the PP to be worse than last year either.

 

I know there's question around the team and that it may not be as good as last year, but in my (biased) eyes, there's no way this team is not a top 10 team in the league. ATLEAST not a bottom-half team.

[Pete]

6 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

Well, there's no good reason for why Igor won't repeat the season he had. Maybe not exactly as good, but he will be good, very good.

 

50G from Kreids won't happen again, but I'm sure we won't see Zib sub-30 goals either. Panarin also had his worst goal scoring season ever last year. The roster is also filled with young guys that should score more than last year.

 

No reason for the PP to be worse than last year either.

 

I know there's question around the team and that it may not be as good as last year, but in my (biased) eyes, there's no way this team is not a top 10 team in the league. ATLEAST not a bottom-half team.

The reason Igor is unlikely to replicate last season is because it was historic in terms of high danger save percentage.

 

I just don't think you guys realize how much better he was than the next best goalie. You think he's just going to bang out record-breaking seasons every year, sorry but I just don't think you can count on that.

 

I'm not saying he's going to be league average, but even if he was only as good as last year second best goalie, that's a marked drop off. And last year's second best goalie had a damn good year. 

 

And frankly, if the team is as good as everybody here thinks they are, he shouldn't have to. 

 

Score at five on five, defend as a team. If they have not learned to do these two things, their season will end the same as last year's. Sure, even if they make the ECF again, if that's the reason they lose, then we saw it coming going back to last year. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Pete