Phil Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Among the many players effectively auditioning for next season?s roster are the aforementioned group of five key RFAs: Jimmy Vesey, Brady Skjei, and Kevin Hayes, as well as deadline additions Ryan Spooner, and Vladislav Namestnikov. All are eligible for arbitration this summer. Defensemen Rob O?Gara and John Gilmour are also arbitration-eligible RFAs, but shouldn?t be classified in the same stratosphere of importance as the others who are measurably more productive and experienced. The Rangers could very well trade one or more players from the big-five ahead of or at the draft this June, but whether they stay or go, all are due new contracts. While they share connective tissue in being RFAs, they?re almost all at separate career junctions regarding age. This makes projecting their respective new deals a unique but not impossible task. One thing is for sure: they?re all in line for raises. On Jimmy Vesey: Yet Vesey, who will turn 25 this May, is arbitration eligible. That fact limits Gorton?s leverage with a player who, despite the hype associated with being a former first-round pick (and Hobey Baker winner), has yet to convincingly perform. He doesn?t kill penalties and despite playing nearly 220 minutes on the power play these last two seasons, his overall production is more in line with an average third-line player ? a role that a recent look at NHL economics suggests isn?t worth investing in long-term. The Rangers could (perhaps even should) opt to move him for younger assets but if they choose to keep him, he?s a prime candidate for a one- or two-year bridge contract worth somewhere in the vicinity of $2.5 million to $3 million in annual average value (AAV). Though it?s not an apples-to-apples comparison, someone like Conor Sheary, who signed a three-year, $9 million extension with the Penguins last summer could be a decent comparable for Vesey, who, due to signing his ELC as a 22-year-old, doesn?t have many others in a similar contract position. On Brady Skjei: Skjei wasn?t the Rangers top-pairing defender last season and even after the McDonagh trade he?s second to Neal Pionk in average TOI/GP this season, though he?s officially on the first pairing. Despite a rather poor sophomore season in which his production and play have both regressed from the level he established in his rookie year, he?s still young and promising enough to keep around even if his role never matures to meet a Rangers? top pairing role. Gorton has little choice in the matter and so should lock him up long-term. In many ways, the Rangers may have even benefited from his second-season slip. Skjei?s particularly poor outing this year in which his P/GP pace has fallen by nearly 50% from his rookie season have probably knocked a few shekels off his asking price. A price that, with a stronger season, he may have had a strong argument in comparing to contracts like the one Jacob Slavin signed in Carolina (seven years, $5.3 million AAV) or Rasmus Ristolainen signed in Buffalo (six years, $5.4 million AAV). Even McDonagh, who signed his current deal worth $4.7 million annually at the age of 24, was already the Rangers? top-pairing defender at that time before agreeing to the extension. A better comparable range is probably between Toronto Maple Leafs? defenseman Jake Gardiner, who signed a five-year deal worth $4.05 million annually in 2014 and Philadelphia Flyers? defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, who signed a six-year deal worth $4.5 million per season last summer. Both signed their extensions at the age of 24 ? the same age Skjei will be a little under two weeks from now. Also covered here are the remaining "big-five" ? Kevin Hayes, Ryan Spooner, and Vladislav Namestnikov. https://thehockeywriters.com/rangers-restricted-free-agents-2018/ -- Gun to my head, I get the feeling that the Rangers are gonna be dealing away at least one of these guys. Maybe two. If I had to venture a guess, come the draft or slightly beyond, Vesey and Spooner are calling somewhere else home. Even with $25 million-plus in available cap this summer, keeping all five is just going to be too expensive. Especially if they have any hopes of speeding up their rebuild by entertaining names like Tavares and Kovalchuk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Not to nit-pick but you have Vesey listed as a former 1st round draft pick. He was a 3rd rounder for Nashville in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 14, 2018 Author Share Posted March 14, 2018 Not to nit-pick but you have Vesey listed as a former 1st round draft pick. He was a 3rd rounder for Nashville in 2012. Bah, good catch. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Bah, good catch. Thanks. No sweat. I would list the Rangers RFA's in order of importance as: 1. Skjei 2. Hayes 3. Namestnikov 4. Spooner 5. Vesey Spooner, with what he has shown so far, is pretty important too but I think the other three are still more important to the rebuild of the Rangers. Vesey is totally expendable and replaceable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 14, 2018 Author Share Posted March 14, 2018 Agreed. I think the issue with Spooner is that his P/GP has spiked since the trade. He's a career 0.59 P/GP player playing at 1.63 in New York. That's insane and utterly unsustainable. It's not the contract so much as the expectations I think he'd fail to meet were he kept. Plus, with that kind of explosive performance, why wouldn't you try to strike while the iron is hot? Like they did with Grabner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Agreed. I think the issue with Spooner is that his P/GP has spiked since the trade. He's a career 0.59 P/GP player playing at 1.63 in New York. That's insane and utterly unsustainable. It's not the contract so much as the expectations I think he'd fail to meet were he kept. Plus, with that kind of explosive performance, why wouldn't you try to strike while the iron is hot? Like they did with Grabner. Because GM’s, scouts, and coaches aren’t morons ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 [/b] Because GM’s, scouts, and coaches aren’t morons ? Odd, given every July 1st and trade deadline they prove otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Odd, given every July 1st and trade deadline they prove otherwise. For being in a situation that’s pretty much unknown for the most part, I’d say they do a pretty good job predicting the future. Some better than others, obviously. It’s real easy to call someone a moron after the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 For being in a situation that’s pretty much unknown for the most part, I’d say they do a pretty good job predicting the future. Some better than others, obviously. It’s real easy to call someone a moron after the fact. That response (mine) was dripping in sarcasm, Mike. Do you really think the concept of selling high doesn't exist in the NHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 That response (mine) was dripping in sarcasm, Mike. Do you really think the concept of selling high doesn't exist in the NHL? Do you really think someone will overpay for Spooner because he’s at a 1.63 ppg pace on a dead team? Would he get a return of value? Yes. Will he get a return over value? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 Do you really think someone will overpay for Spooner because he’s at a 1.63 ppg pace on a dead team? Would he get a return of value? Yes. Will he get a return over value? No. Define overpay. Yes, I think someone would give up a good return for him. Just like the Devils did for Grabner. How many points does he have with them since, again? I'm not suggesting that GMs are so stupid as to not see the huge differential in P/GP, or to understand the small sample size. I'm just saying they can see the energy and the determination in his play and it can open a larger market for the player, which in turn can create something of a bidding war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Define overpay. Yes, I think someone would give up a good return for him. Just like the Devils did for Grabner. How many points does he have with them since, again? I'm not suggesting that GMs are so stupid as to not see the huge differential in P/GP, or to understand the small sample size. I'm just saying they can see the energy and the determination in his play and it can open a larger market for the player, which in turn can create something of a bidding war. Grabner played 60 games. Spooner played 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 Yes, and he'll play around 20 total before the draft. Brendan Smith was given a four-year deal for what amounts to roughly the same amount of time as a Ranger. Eric Staal was picked up for dirt cheap by the Wild for the reverse. Teams make these kinds of decisions all the time. With Spooner, the ability to trade him for a quality package is as simple as an improving P/GP pace over the last three years. He's shown the kind of year-by-year progress GMs can feel comfortable investing in. I don't believe there's a team stupid enough to believe he's a 1.6 P/GP player, but I do think there's one who will see his play with the Rangers and believe he can have a similar (not equal) impact for his own club. North of his career average, but south of this unsustainable pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 I say we keep Spoonsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 The thing is, I'm good keeping any of them. Even all of them. It will effectively take the Rangers out of the running for someone like Tavares or Kovalchuk, but that might be a good thing anyway. I'd rather be bad next season, too, and get a crack at Jack Hughes. But if they do want someone like Tavares, they still need to cut away. That probably means Zucc, plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Yes, and he'll play around 20 total before the draft. Brendan Smith was given a four-year deal for what amounts to roughly the same amount of time as a Ranger. Eric Staal was picked up for dirt cheap by the Wild for the reverse. Teams make these kinds of decisions all the time. With Spooner, the ability to trade him for a quality package is as simple as an improving P/GP pace over the last three years. He's shown the kind of year-by-year progress GMs can feel comfortable investing in. I don't believe there's a team stupid enough to believe he's a 1.6 P/GP player, but I do think there's one who will see his play with the Rangers and believe he can have a similar (not equal) impact for his own club. North of his career average, but south of this unsustainable pace. Smith was more of a proven player in the league. He definitely got a few more bucks for his play here, especially in the playoffs, but different players, different positions, different team situation. No one is going to get criticized for stealing a player at a low contract, so that’s irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 Smith signed at the age of 28. Spooner would be signing at 26. I agree they're in different positions. I'm just trying to illustrate how NHL GMs can and do make decisions ok small sample sizes. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThirtyONE Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 The thing is, I'm good keeping any of them. Even all of them. It will effectively take the Rangers out of the running for someone like Tavares or Kovalchuk, but that might be a good thing anyway. I'd rather be bad next season, too, and get a crack at Jack Hughes. But if they do want someone like Tavares, they still need to cut away. That probably means Zucc, plus. Basically the opposite of Hugh Jessiman. While, I'd love that, I don't think there's a chance in hell the Rangers finish dead last next year. They're already not bad enough to do that and I think they'll improve this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 Basically the opposite of Hugh Jessiman. While, I'd love that, I don't think there's a chance in hell the Rangers finish dead last next year. They're already not bad enough to do that and I think they'll improve this summer. They don't have to finish dead last. Just in lottery position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Smith signed at the age of 28. Spooner would be signing at 26. I agree they're in different positions. I'm just trying to illustrate how NHL GMs can and do make decisions ok small sample sizes. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Phil, I told you a hundred times, it’s not happening, at least not on purpose. Lol. Believe me, they aren’t going to put an AHL team on the ice next year. I know they’re going to attempt to put a playoff team on the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThirtyONE Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Phil, I told you a hundred times, it’s not happening, at least not on purpose. Lol. Believe me, they aren’t going to put an AHL team on the ice next year. I know they’re going to attempt to put a playoff team on the ice. Similar to what they did in 2006. They traded everyone and came back with older guys on shorter deals. The legend of Hank was born, Jagr broke a record, and they almost won the damn division. I'd guess they'd fill the roster and with a mix of vets and young guys and have a go at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Similar to what they did in 2006. They traded everyone and came back with older guys on shorter deals. The legend of Hank was born, Jagr broke a record, and they almost won the damn division. I'd guess they'd fill the roster and with a mix of vets and young guys and have a go at it. They expect to be better than what they thought they would be in 05-06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Except they don't have Jagr or Hank circa 05. I just can't believe they'd be so short sighted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Except they don't have Jagr or Hank circa 05. I just can't believe they'd be so short sighted. Why is it being short sighted? They have all these picks this year, how many will be ready to play next season, in your opinion? They have Chytil and Andersson who are expected to be in the line up next season. If you have Hank, Shatty, Skjei, Kreider, Hayes, Vesey, Zib, Zuc, Spoons, Namestnikov, Chytil, and Andersson, why not attempt to surround them with higher tier talent if possible while your slew of picks are developing for the next year or 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunny Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 After this draft the cupboard is pretty much fully stocked and your roster pieces have been moved. Why would you purposefully suck for a whole year to move up 10 spots in the '19 Draft? It's time to get at it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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