Br4d

12 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

I did some more cap crunching. I'm in shock, but the Rangers could still fit double retained Kane in. It requires:

 

1) Kravtsov traded before the deadline, no later than  March 1st (or maybe the day before, it's a little hairy), without salary coming back and nobody called up to replace him.

2) The Rangers going with a 21 man roster (12 F, 7D, 2 G) rest of season post trade deadline. This means Leschychyn waived on deadline day, with no replacement.

 

They cannot wait until trade deadline day to dump Kravtsov. The Rangers current deadline cap space is $908K. Add Kravtsov's $875k and Leschychyn's $767K out = $2.55M cap. A double retained Kane is 10.5*.25 = 2.625M. They would be roughly $7.3K short. In order to make up the difference, it gets into the fractional daily costs of keeping Kravtsov around, which is his contract value divided by the days in the NHL season. Per CapFriendly, there are 185 days in the NHL season this year. $875k / 185 = $4.73K per day. Two days before the deadline saves the required amount to just barely fit Kane in. Any more than that is gravy, and would start accumulating a little bit extra to carry a 22nd man at some point later on in the season (think the situation of wanting to give a player or two a game off, and calling up a minor leaguer).

Rangers injury luck has been insanely good this season.  Not sure I want them to cut their remaining maneuverability at this point.

I hate Krieder-Zib and Panarin-Anybody because that eats the kids minutes.

You can't let K'Andre Miller go unless somebody trades for his ceiling and gives us a young star player at a position we need in return.  Picks just aren't going to do it.  Miller's ceiling is way, way up there.

They got Tarasenko because they needed a RW badly.  We had too much of Vesey on line 1 and Goodrow on line 3 going on and in that configuration the 4th line is not particularly worth cat spit.

As to whether Vesey is ok in the top 9 I guess that depends on who he is playing with.  I'd much rather have him playing with Kreider on line 3 than with Panarin on line 2.  Whatever line Panarin is on is line 2 unless he is playing with Zibanejad on line 1.

Hoping we look back on this game as the game Lafreniere got it rolling.  I think he has GG interested now.

2 hours ago, Blue Heaven said:

Bringing back the nostalgia with Strat-O-Matic, makes me want to get back into it, but at this point more of the online version.  

I never liked the online version in the 90's because the graphics blew chunks.

There's something about holding a card in one hand and rolling the dice in the other that is just so tactile.  I'm getting hard thinking about it right now... 

Ryan Lindgren is really good and he's kind of a bargain at $3M.  The question is what the next deal will cost?

14 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Gretzkly's Strat card the year he had 92 goals was absurd. GOAL GOAL GOAL GOAL. If he had an inside shot, it was a goal. 

 

<slinks back to quiet nerdom> 

Gretzky was insane inside 30 feet.  He used to take the puck behind the goal and if nobody was in front he'd try to bank the puck off of the goaltender.

13 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Goodrow's $3.6M is at the top of the list for some cap relief, and it's not even close. He's a 30-35 point player in his prime here. He was brought here for experience, which will no longer be needed here. Totally replaceable.

 

All this discussion about Kreider is really that there's been a faction of fans who disliked him for a while and they had to shut up last year while he potted 50. Now that he's pacing only 35 goals, he can be sent to the junkyard for a 21 y.o. rookie to get his feet wet on a team that will still be Cup contenders.

 

 

Just speaking for myself.  I don't dislike Kreider at all.  In fact I like many of the things that he brings to the ice.

That said, it is the natural order of things for veteran players to give way to younger players as the vets production declines and the younger players production increases.

If Lafreniere had Kreider's power play time last year they'd both have probably scored 25-35 goals.  As it was Lafreniere was second to Kreider in EVS goals last year.  It's logical to project Lafreniere taking Kreider's cap slot moving forward.  That's what makes the cap work for the Rangers even though they have to pay several young players sharply rising contracts if their trajectory continues upwards as they approach RFA and UFA.

1 hour ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Depends how much cap is needed, but I would shed multiple contracts before Kreider's $6.5M bargain cap hit.

Again, which contracts?

Trouba?

Lindgren?

Miller's next deal?

Lafreniere's next deal?

Kakko's next deal?

Chytil's next deal?

Shesterkin?

Zibanejad?

Panarin?

The Ranger's cap doesn't have a lot of movement potential at the moment.  Barclay Goodrow is an obvious cap casualty at some point because he's a 4th-liner making $3.6M.  After that things get really dicey.  Making Trouba the Captain had an effect on the Ranger's ability to move on from him if they keep playing well under his stewardship.

You should be able to figure this out by looking at what the goaltender's efficiency in terms of goals saved is.  The goaltender's efficiency should be a positive number in relation to what his peers in the NHL (peers being starting goalies) produce or negative if he is below his peers.  This number is probably some factor of save percentage and shots faced, since a goal tender who faces more shots will allow more goals than a peer who faces less shots and at in almost all cases the goalie who faces more shots with the same save percentage will be more valuable. 

The number will be 1 +/- a fraction probably on a sliding scale that reflects where good goalie level begins.  Goalies above this level  getting 1+ on this number depending on where they stand in the rankings based on the number produced in the first paragraph.  A very good goalie might get up to 1.5 on this scale.   Maybe 1.99 for a legendarily good goalie.  Not sure where Shesterkin's numbers would be at this point but he has clearly prevented a lot of goals that an average NHL goalie would not have prevented.  Let's give him a 1.8 for last season, which was an exceptional season by any account.

I'm not sure the metric exists but it should be ascertainable with logical deduction.

If you want to establish a basis for logical expenditure you can start with what percentage of the time the goalie is on the ice.  This gives you their Opportunity for Effect.

Then the basis has to take into account that there are 6 positions on the ice at most times and goalie is 16.67% of the time on ice, trending upwards of that due to time short handed.

The question is to what extent does a goalie effect overall play on the ice in terms of goals prevented?  Play is in the goalies end of the ice probably 40% of the time and he has very little if any effect on the rest of play.

So take the 1/6 of the cap * Opportunity for Effect * .4 * the first number produced above.  So theoretically Shesterkin's valuation against the cap last year would have been $6.3M give or take because I got lazy and did not take TOI into account just games played.  If he'd played 60 games, which is where most workhorse goalies sit, he'd have been worth $7.2M.

Note that if Shesterkin played for a Ranger's team that allowed the opponent to dominate in his end and so the actual percentage of play in that end was 45% of the time then his value last season would have been $7.2M even in 53 games played.

The point is that last season odds are pretty good that Shesterkin in a great season and injured at least once was worth between $6.3M and $7.2M so a bargain over his $5.67M cap number.

The other thing is that as the cap goes up the amount that should go to the goalie also goes up.

If the cap in '25-26 is $90M and Shesterkin has a season like last year with 60 games played he might well be worth close to $9M.  The rough formula above suggests $7.9M.

6 minutes ago, mbob said:

Igor or Halak tonight?

I'd go with Halak just to rub it in when we beat them on their ice.

3 minutes ago, CBrowningPI said:

Could you imagine if Trouba put the train on McJesus? The hockey world would go ballistic. 

If McJesus skates with his head down he's getting trucked.  Trouba isn't afraid of anybody on that Edmonton roster.

4 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Yes, but Kreider isn't how you do it.

 

 

So who do you trade to make the difference?

Dude, I get what you are saying but the Rangers have been a top 4 team over the last 2 seasons and they're rounding into that status again this season.

If they win a playoff series again GG is going nowhere.

.669 over the last two seasons.

Just to add a bit: last season we all said the Rangers were ahead of schedule.  This season they seem to be right on schedule.  You have to give GG some credit for that.  He took over and the Rangers took off.

57 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

Compile a list of the contracts that could be moved for significant cap space, and Kreider will be the only one that can be classified as underpaid. Getting rid of good value contracts is not a good way to run a franchise in a capped sport. The idea is to have more of those, not less.

You could make a pretty good argument that Zibanejad, Lindgren and Shesterkin are similarly underpaid as Kreider.

Something has to give as the young guys start to get paid.  We've got a handful of young stars-in-waiting headed to their second deal.  The natural order is that some of the mid-career vets will have to go to make that happen under the cap.  Kreider is the poster-boy in this category.

Strat Football was good too.   Actually Strat Basketball was great also.  They did such a good job with all 4 sports.  The only problem was they gave me a life long allergy to die rolls.

56 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

 

Oh shit!!  I loved Strat-o!!!  I think I still have a version of baseball tucked away someplace in my house!

Strat baseball was the top of the class.  Played in two Strat baseball leagues for years, like 13 seasons total.

1 hour ago, BrooksBurner said:

Kreider should be a career Ranger. Good contract value and has always performed consistently year in and year out. We can talk about in-year consistency in the distant past, but that is no longer valid. 50 goals last year, pacing 35 this year. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s a 40 goal scorer more than once through the rest of his contract. His underlying analytics have been excellent for years. Only two years in his career has he been below a 52 xGF%. Only one year has he been below a 52 GF%. Absolute production machine his whole career. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

I think the Rangers luck on getting high picks is likely to deprive Kreider of the opportunity to be a career Ranger.

Kakko and Lafreniere are going to make him a financial albatross at some point.  If we're lucky that point is not next season.

I don't think Kreider is bound for the HoF.  Graves BTW is a pretty good comparison.  For Kreider to get to the HoF he'd have to have another top out season like last year and he'd need to have maybe 4 more normal CK seasons and the Rangers would need to win a cup somewhere in there.  That would get him to the 400 goals that would give him a good shot.

A LW gets in for about 1,000 points and anywhere from 250 to 400+ goals.   If the guy is a really prolific goal scorer he can get in with less points and more goals.

Zibanejad is going to be a sad dude when the Rangers finally trade CK.

11 hours ago, RangersIn7 said:

 

 

 

But I’ll reveal some details from my own life.

 

Theres a popular board game which I’ve played since I’m a kid. 
I got involved in high-level tournament play as I became a teen.

I continued to play that game at the highest levels since. 
I am nationally ranked now. I’ve won a few tournaments and I am a top player.

 

I play a certain way, with a specific style, and try to do certain things and accomplish certain goals. 
But occasionally I encounter an opponent that requires a different approach. So I alter both my strategy AND my tactics. And my turn to turn goals.

And there’s also a change in my situational play and deployment of resources 

 

 

I had no idea they still published Strat-o-matic Hockey!

4 minutes ago, Cash or Czech said:

 

Was a trade acquisition?

Yeah I forgot because they traded for him and then signed him. 

14 minutes ago, Pete said:

Dude, he's one of the most successful free agent signings in New York sports history. When is the last time a player came here and free agency, especially Ranger, and was every bit as advertised? You'd have to go back to the non-injured version of Gaborik. 

Jacob Trouba.

9 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

1. Artemi Panarin +1

2. Mika Zibanejad +1

3. Adam Fox 

4. Filip Chytil

5. Igor Shesterkin

6. K'Andre Miller

7. Kappo Kakko

8. Vincent Trocheck

9. Ryan Lindgren 

10. Chris Kreider

11. Alexis Lafrenière

12. Jacob Trouba +2

13. Vladimir Tarasenko

14. Jimmy Vesey

15. Braden Schneider 

16. Jaroslav Halak 

17. Barclay Goodrow

18. Ben Harpur 

19. Vitali Kravtsov 

20. Niko Mikkola

21. Julien Gauthier

22. Jake Leschyshyn

 

Both have been tremendous of late

Zibanejad has been tremendous for 2 years now.  Top 5 two-way Center at this point.

Panarin clearly is a top 5 player in the NHL if he is motivated and playing hard.  If not he might not be a top 5 LW.

I'm not posting changes to the ladder because I think in something like this too many cooks spoils the broth and what do I know?