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Br4d

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Posts posted by Br4d

  1. 7 hours ago, Keirik said:

    Atlanta Falcons lol 

     

    Yeah, it looks like an interesting pick to put it mildly.

     

    The guy Penix really reminds me of is Dan Fouts.  Not adjusted for era or anything he just plays like Fouts did.

     

    No idea if Fouts would be really good in today's NHL.  He was the next evolution of the Namath/Lamonica model and he did really well at the time, but no championships because Chargers.

  2. 1 hour ago, Ozzy said:

     

    I'm all for letting the old ghosts be.

     

    This is a different time and a whole different team since those games back forever ago, Brad.

     

    I think we should beat them where it hurts;  The scoreboard.  No need to play chippy revenge hockey.  What's done is done.  I wanna win the Cup, and I don't think that's the way to do it.  We can play a HARD physical game against them, and let the chips fall where they may.  Carolina is not a physical team like the Caps are.  They won't be able to match us check for check in a heavy fashion.  That's our game now.

     

    We're the big boys on the block, but there a time and place for that kinda stuff.  The 2nd round isn't the place for it in my opinion.  We'll beat them by playing hard, not silly and reckless.  😉

     

    Aho tried to injure Fox on the play and succeeded.  Not sure if the Igor injury was intentional but it was a reckless play with the skater using his leg to stretch Igor out good.

     

    I don't think ignoring the incidents makes the 'Canes less likely to do what they did again.

  3. 3 hours ago, Rangers said:

    Fast is the one who hurt us, he is out of the lineup with injury for the rest of playoffs 

     

    Aho is the one that went knee to knee on Fox.

     

    Not 100% sure who stretched out Igor.

     

    Both of them were out for weeks.  Fox even longer.

     

    We really should have Rempe run their goalie at least once.  He's going to get penalized/suspended for basically anything at this point because the refs are hunting him.  He should take out the goalie and earn the punishment.

    • Believe 1
  4. 25 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

     

    So what? It doesn't change the Super Bowl results. It's a different league today. It's a passing dominant league and QB values are higher than ever. As a result, any QB with even a small chance of being good is generally going to get picked higher than ever before. That's just how it is. All of these examples that get thrown out there of "Brady was a 6th", "Russel Wilson was a 3rd", doesn't matter. It's a new era propped up by a clear favoritism on how important that QB has become to be recognized, especially as the game has changed.

     

    The only evidence that taking a QB in the 1st round after pick 1 is successful are Roethlisberger, Flacco and Mahomes.  All 3 went to rock solid franchises with great head coaches.

     

    I guess what I'm trying to say is that if you are going to cherry-pick a QB in round 1 after pick 1 and throw him on the field you'd better have everything else all set or you are going to fail.

  5. 4 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:


    I agree that your logic is sound and it sounds good, but not having a top QB doesn’t work out that often regardless of how good the rest of the team is. Sounds good on paper, but works poorly in practice. Like socialism.

     

    Having a top QB and nothing else is worse than having an average QB and real talent.

     

    Look at Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow.  Look at the Lions with Matthew Stafford.  Look at the Chargers with Drew Brees.

     

    The reality is that about 75% of the teams have a good, competent or better QB (Kirk Cousins with the Vikings, Josh Allen with the Bills, etc.) and still can't get out of their own way.

     

    Draft the *best* player available.  Don't make bets on guys who weren't close to the best at their position in college.  This was a very effective golden rule that allowed teams picking lower in the round to dominate teams picking higher on a consistent basis for 40-odd years before everybody got impatient and started wasting their 1st round picks on pipe dreams about a decade ago.

    • Like 1
  6. 3 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

     

    3x Mahomes

    4x Brady

    1x Stafford

    1x Peyton Manning

    1x Foles

     

    By my estimation, that’s 1 out of 10 with a below top 5-10 QB in the league.

     

    The 10 years before that:


    2x Ben Roethlisberger
    2x Eli Manning

    1x Russel Wilson

    1x Flacco

    1x Aaron Rodgers

    1x Drew Brees

    1x Tom Brady

    1x Peyton Manning

     

    Only argument that can be made is Flacco was outside the top 10. I’m not even going to look to see if it’s true, and just give it to you. Again 1 out of 10.

     

    The odds in the last 20 years of winning a SB without a top 10 QB are 10%…at best.

     

    All of a sudden the bust rate on QBs in the draft doesn’t hit as hard.

     

    That's 7 out of 10 wrapped up in a 6th round pick and a guy who went to the perfect destination.

     

    The 10 years before that featured a lot of guys picked in 2 or 3 QB draft pods in the 1st or later rounds.

     

    Aaron Rodgers was one of two guys picked in 2006.  Roethlisberger went to the perfect destination for a rookie bubble.  Drew Brees was the 2nd QB off the board in 2001 at pick 32.  Peyton Manning was the 1st QB picked in 1998.  Eli Manning was the 1st QB picked in 2004.

  7. 24 minutes ago, H-Dreamer said:

    Yh, most these QBs would have been advertised as "projects" and picked in the later rounds, but no one has patience anymore to develop. Well, except the Packers and oh look their guy looks solid. Fans are the biggest hinderance these days, never happy, always complaining and adding pressure, because Owners get scared they don't sell enough tickets if they don't draft shiny new toys.

    Broncos fan I watch occasionally made it almost his entire personality that he wanted a QB this draft, any QB, he got really salty when the Vikings got an additional 1st Rounder and threatened to trade up. lol (and they didn't even need it in the end)

    Past 10 years? 50/50

    Though one might attribute that to Brady, who won 4 as a late pick, then there's Foles winning one as a third Round Pick.

    Mahomes got 3 as a 10th Overall, guess that counts, Stafford as 1st Overall, but not on the team that drafted him and the shell of Peyton Manning with the Broncos.

     

    Mahomes is unique for two reasons.  One he has tremendous talent that most 1st round QB's do not and two he went to Andy Reid and a well-stocked roster with a good OL, WR, TE and RB.

     

    Anybody trying to win on the Mahomes formula is playing with themselves unless they have Andy Reid or a Mahomes-clone.

  8. 27 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:


    What are the odds of winning Super Bowl without a top 10 QB in the league?

     

    I think they know the bust odds on drafting QBs, but when SB probabilities are generally dictated by needing a high end QB, it gets GMs to roll the dice at draft time.

     

    With that said, I don’t know what the Falcons are doing. Completely unnecessary reach. They just signed Cousins to big money and Penix is already 24 years old. He’s going to sit until his late 20s having not played an NFL game? Just strange. If it were a young 21 year old QB or something that’d be fine.

     

    The 1st round of the draft is for getting great talent.  You win by accumulating more talent than the rest of the teams you are competing with.

     

    Taking the 6th QB, or the 5th, 4th or 3rd, is really likely to see you giving up a talent differential vs what you would have gotten there instead.

     

    The NFL right now takes that extra QB early in the 1st round.  That's why so many teams are generationally hopeless at this point.

     

    It is important to get a QB but it is more important not to bust on your early 1st round pick.

  9. 6 QB's in the first 12 picks.  Aside from Caleb Williams they are probably 65% likely to bust based on past draft results.

     

    The NFL has a really bad paradigm going on about drafting QB's in the 1st round.  The days when only 2 or 3 QB's went in the 1st round, sometimes only 1, were correct.  This recent QB Fever (from about 2014 onwards) is a case of about 16 teams out of 32 who do not understand what the odds are and are pretty bad at developing QB's anyway.

     

    2021's failures (because the NFL is on this really bad trip) led directly to 2024's likely failures.  Odds are 2024's failures will lead to the next totally overdrafted QB class in 2027 or so.

  10. 2 hours ago, Pete said:

     

    You had to have a lot of cred with management to make the necessary move to get Tro and Laf on the same line.

     

    GG wanted Panarin and Tro together.  He stuck with that pairing through a few real dry spells last season.  To get Laf on that line you have to move him to RW.

     

    I'd love to know what the two spats GG and Drury had last year were about.  One regular season and then again in the playoffs.  One of the two went at the other hard twice and it would be very interesting to find out what the topic(s) were.

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